September 2025 PNW Discussion

[NWbyNW]

Currently 66F here in Everett.  Since last Friday, our highest temp has been 67F.  Every day was predicted to be mid-70s.  Underperformance every day and that will likely continue. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

13 minutes ago, NWbyNW said:

Currently 66F here in Everett.  Since last Friday, our highest temp has been 67F.  Every day was predicted to be mid-70s.  Underperformance every day and that will likely continue. 

Ridges that extend north to Alaska with nothing really pumping it to the west perform worse than if you have a +PNA or Gulf of Alaska low dominating the pattern. 

[ShawniganLake]

Just drove back to the coast after a week up at Watch Lake BC.  It was 100F driving through the Fraser canyon.  Pretty smoky/ hazy all the way to the coast.  
 

Weather was beautiful this past week in the Cariboo.  Mostly sunny with 85/40 type days.  

[iFred]

Came out to my car with a few flecks of ash, a low and smoky sky, and an orange sun. Seems like all of the Cascade fires were growing when checking Watch Duty.

[Positive PNA Enjoyoor]

7 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’m assuming this means down to 32, up to 33, down to 32, up to 33, down to 32, up to 33, down to 32 this morning? Dynamic!

Yeah that.

[MossMan]

22 minutes ago, iFred said:

Came out to my car with a few flecks of ash, a low and smoky sky, and an orange sun. Seems like all of the Cascade fires were growing when checking Watch Duty.

Yeah noticed a little ash on our car as well. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Yeah noticed a little ash on our car as well. 

Trying to figure out what fire mixed to near the surface and I see that the Bear Gulch had a flare up to the northeast, so maybe that.

[Meatyorologist]

Medford-Salem will see a decent thunderstorm threat tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning. That threat translates north into western WA the following night.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Trying to figure out what fire mixed to near the surface and I see that the Bear Gulch had a flare up to the northeast, so maybe that.

Probably the wildcat fire

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Every night is a bounty. 

[umadbro]

If you're a golfer. Go play Elk Ridge in Carson. Views like this everywhere. Unbelievable place and the course itself is immaculate.

[Cloud]

2 hours ago, NWbyNW said:

The forecast failure for this past weekend is pretty incredible.  They were so off. The black line represents the prediction from the models and the NOAA.  The yellow dots are the actual temps as KSEA.  They were accurate Thursday, but Friday, Saturday, and now Monday have all been way off. 

 

 

I think the models obviously underestimated the marine/cloud cover. Something they’re not very good at for a while now. The GFS is the best at handling something like this. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

TTT today in Ashcroft (100.9˚F) and Lillooet (101.8˚F). Both are new monthly records for September.

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Medford-Salem will see a decent thunderstorm threat tomorrow evening into Wednesday morning. That threat translates north into western WA the following night.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Another arctic circle Low projected to go <5100dm in 3-5 days on the 0z GEFS. 

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Cloud said:

I think the models obviously underestimated the marine/cloud cover. Something they’re not very good at for a while now. The GFS is the best at handling something like this. 

The GFS is most certainly not good at handling low clouds.   It always underestimates.   The ECMWF is by far the best and it fails sometimes as well.

[Jbolin]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

The GFS is most certainly not good at handling low clouds.   It always underestimates.   The ECMWF is by far the best and it fails sometimes as well.

Something, something...Tim, (morning clouds) something something, blah, blah, blah...screw Ryan Maue. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Northern lights from Lake Superior a few hours ago

[Tanis Leach]

Decided to make a one off video for the thunderstorms. I'm tired so speaking a little off: 

 

[TT-SEA]

5 hours ago, Jbolin said:

Something, something...Tim, (morning clouds) something something, blah, blah, blah...screw Ryan Maue. 

@Meatyorologist points this out all the time as well.   The GFS is terrible at handling the marine layer.   It showed mid 80s all of the holiday weekend because it completely underestimated the marine influence.   It was obvious beforehand.

[Phishy Wx]

record high yesterday, 99 KGEG.  today potential for the first c-note in September in Spokane history.  No Anal log for that one

 

unchartered territory...

 

cheers

[Chewbacca Defense]

17 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

We are in Bellingham... yesterday afternoon was pretty nice and it's sunny today.    Mariner layer is stuck farther south... model fail.

Hey I'm in Bellingham too!  What a coincidence!  I hope things went well with you guys helping your mom with next steps.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

A C-note is of course now out of the question for PDX, and they may escape this heat wave with only a single 90 burger.

Quote

ORZ111-022300-
Inner Portland Metro-
Including the cities of Portland, Sellwood, Happy Valley,
Lake Oswego, Oregon City, and Eagle Creek
350 AM PDT Tue Sep 2 2025

.TODAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 90s. Winds light.
.TONIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s. Winds light.
.WEDNESDAY...Partly sunny. Highs around 90. Winds light.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 60s. Winds
light.
.THURSDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs around 90. Winds light.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the mid 60s.
.FRIDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the mid 80s.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows in the
lower 60s. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 80s.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 60.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Highs in the lower 80s.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around
60. Chance of rain 20 percent.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly
sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 80. Chance of rain
20 percent.

&&
               TEMPERATURE

Portland    91     67     88
Parkrose    92     66     90
Lake Oswego     92     66     90
Happy Valley    90     64     88

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

37 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

record high yesterday, 99 KGEG.  today potential for the first c-note in September in Spokane history.  No Anal log for that one

unchartered territory...

cheers

This one is definitely still delivering TTT for interior areas.

[Eastwind]

We just got back into town last night. Went on our last camping trip of the summer. PDX was able to finish August at +3 for a summer average of +1.9. Looks like Fall starts off a little hot and humid the first few days.

[High Desert Mathew]

15 hours ago, Phil said:

Lost track of how many times it showed those crazy patterns last winter. Of course zilch verified.

That was pretty much my point. 

[High Desert Mathew]

9 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Another arctic circle Low projected to go <5100dm in 3-5 days on the 0z GEFS. 

Anal logs?

[MossMan]

Massive marine invasion once again. With probably a sprinkle of smoke. 

[iFred]

15 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Massive marine invasion once again. With probably a sprinkle of smoke. 

Had a few more flecks of ash on my car hood this morning.

[TT-SEA]

22 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Massive marine invasion once again. With probably a sprinkle of smoke. 

Much more shallow today... its sunny here.    It will burn off completely earlier today.

[T-Town]

So far this is one of the chillier heatwaves I can remember. 60 degrees with low clouds and fog here. 

[ShawniganLake]

13 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

TTT today in Ashcroft (100.9˚F) and Lillooet (101.8˚F). Both are new monthly records for September.

The next 4 afternoons look similarly hot in that area.  

[iFred]

Happy first sub 50º solar day to all those who celebrate.

[ClarkCountyChill]

42 minutes ago, T-Town said:

So far this is one of the chillier heatwaves I can remember. 60 degrees with low clouds and fog here. 

Tons of monthly heat records falling in the inland areas. We are fortunate to be getting spared for the most part. Decent marine layer here this morning with a low of 58.

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Tons of monthly heat records falling in the inland areas. We are fortunate to be getting spared for the most part. Decent marine layer here this morning with a low of 58.

Saw that. Kind of an unusual setup where we’re at the western fringe of the ridge. 

[Cloud]

Seems like the low clouds will clear out a bit quicker today. It's getting more bright out. It did feel a tad like fall this morning. 

[the_convergence_zone]

The smoke is clearly what threw the models off. Doesn’t take much to mess with the aerosol-cloud interactions. 

[ShawniganLake]

51 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Saw that. Kind of an unusual setup where we’re at the western fringe of the ridge. 

The upper level temps are going to be pretty toasty this week but with the ridge axis just east and the extreme heat in the interior we will see onshore flow at the lowest levels. 
 

Likely going to be extreme fire behaviour over western and central sections of the BC interior through the end of the week.  

[ShawniganLake]

This new chilly regime managed the 2nd warmest August since 2013 here at the North Cowichan station.  Tied with 2017 for 2nd.  

[BLI snowman]

47 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

This new chilly regime managed the 2nd warmest August since 2013 here at the North Cowichan station.  Tied with 2017 for 2nd.  

Just think about how much warmer it could have been if the background state hadn't shifted so mightily last year.