November 2025 Observations and Discussions

[Hoosier]

It's the final month of meteorological Fall.  

CFS is indicating a mild west and central US.  Other models have something not too far off.  Fwiw, if this were to occur, it would be fairly different from how the anomalies were distributed in November 2024 (although with some overlap of warmth in the central US).

 

 

[Niko]

November looks to enter rather seasonable for my area w a continuation of dry weather continuing. Highs mainly in the 50s and lows in the 30s. This could be true right into almost mid November, or give or take. Although, highs do drop into the 40s by the 10th or so. Lows continue into the 30s.

[Niko]

I remember November 11th, (I think the year 2015), where 9.2" or somewhere around that ballpark blanketed the Detroit Metro Area., That was freak snowstorm. 

[westMJim]

5 hours ago, Niko said:

I remember November 11th, (I think the year 2015), where 9.2" or somewhere around that ballpark blanketed the Detroit Metro Area., That was freak snowstorm. 

Yes, it was 2015

[Hoosier]

Warmth got more pronounced on the latest CFS, fwiw.

[Hoosier]

It looks bad for winter enthusiasts to see all that warmth and especially up in our source region of Canada, but keep in mind what the averages are there.  For International Falls, the average high/low on Oct 31 is 43/26 and drops to 27/10 on Nov 30, so averages would obviously be colder north of the border and the averages go rapidly down through November.  There are indications that we'll start to build a snowpack in Canada relatively soon.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Might have 70s next week and the week after. Winter is gonna somehow get off to an early start......

[Black Hole]

Very warm and very dry into mid November. I think things will stay warmer and drier than normal through at least the 20th, with things starting to turn around in the last third of the month. 

[westMJim]

Welcome to November 2025. During the month the time the sun is up starts out at 10h 1m on the 1^st and ends the month at 9h 16m on the 30^th   The average mean temperature for November at Grand Rapids is 40.0° The average H/L starts out at 54/37 on the 1^st falling to 41/29 on the 30^th The warmest mean of  47.6 in 1931 the coldest 31.5 was  in 1976. The warmest high of 81 was on November 1^st, 1950, the coldest low of -10 was on November 25^th, 1950.   The average rainfall is 3.10” the most rain of 7.90” fell in 2003 the dryest was in 1904 when only 0.06” of rain fell. The average snowfall is 7.1” the most snowfall of 31.0” was in 2014 the least snowfall of a trace was in 2001.  Looking back at October 2025 the mean was 53.9° that is a departure of +2.4 the high for the month was 85 on the 3^rd and 4^th there were 4 days with highs of 80 or better and 9 days with highs of 70 or better the low for the month was 29 on the 25^th there were 2 nights with lows of 32 or less. There was a total of 3.20” of rainfall that is a departure of -0.82” a trace of snowfall was recorded on the 21^st but I would take that with a grain of salt as the H/L that day was 51/39.

Some weather history for November 1^st 1950 - Santa Anna winds fanned fires, and brought record November heat to parts of coastal California. November records included 86 degrees at San Francisco, 97 degrees at San Diego, and 101 degrees at the International airport in Los Angeles. Fires claimed the lives of at least sixteen firefighters. (The Weather Channel) Here in Michigan record highs of 81 were set at Grand Rapids, Flint, and Detroit. 80 at Battle Creek and Saginaw, 79 at Lansing and Flint and 77 at Alpena.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 53/37 there were 20 HDD’s there was no rainfall the highest wind gust was 32 MPH out of the W.  For today the average H/L is 54/37 the record high of 81 was in 1950 (that is also the record high for November) the coldest high of 35 was in 1996 the record low of 2 was in 1976 the warmest low of 57 was in 1977. The most rainfall of 1.24” was in 1982 the most snowfall of 4.0” was in 1912.

Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids

Today

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly between 2pm and 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

A slight chance of showers between 8pm and 9pm. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 34. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph.

Sunday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers after 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. South southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Monday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. West wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 37.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 56.

 

[Clinton]

I haven't had my first frost yet but there's a freeze warning tonight as lows dip to around 30.  Today will be a chilly day with highs not making it out of the 40s.

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I haven't had my first frost yet but there's a freeze warning tonight as lows dip to around 30.  Today will be a chilly day with highs not making it out of the 40s.

My mornings have been consistently getting cooler and dipping into the Upper 50's regularly.  I'm yearning for those crisp, cold days and snow flying!!!

[Niko]

Wow...here we are in November. Cant believe December is right around the corner. Anyways, it is a chilly 37F currently under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs today projected to be in the low 50s w partial clearing as the day progresses.

[jaster220]

On 10/30/2025 at 4:32 PM, Niko said:

I remember November 11th, (I think the year 2015), where 9.2" or somewhere around that ballpark blanketed the Detroit Metro Area., That was freak snowstorm. 

 

On 10/30/2025 at 9:41 PM, westMJim said:

Yes, it was 2015

There were two big November snowstorms in SMI. The first was 11/22/15 that dropped a mere 12.5” in mby in Marshall (2nd all time for me) and the 2nd on 11/11/19 which hit Detroit proper with that 9.2” as mentioned and delivered 7” in Marshall. The 2015 storm hit northern burbs with big totals but not the city. Another big November storm was 11/26/18. Looking back we were on quite a roll with early snowstorms back in “the teens”! I’m sure that 2015 storm has some counterpart a 100 yrs ago but what a wildly anomalous event coming amidst an otherwise hot month. I remember the Friday evening before after work hearing the storm warning on the radio and it was a balmy 44 degrees and sunny. It just didn’t feel anything like an impending “Footer” which we’d never witnessed in far south MI so early. Once in a lifetime event for sure. 

[jaster220]

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wow...here we are in November. Cant believe December is right around the corner. Anyways, it is a chilly 37F currently under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Highs today projected to be in the low 50s w partial clearing as the day progresses.

Same 37F up here where anything above freezing has to be considered balmy LOL. Hope you’re having a great Saturday amigo!

[Niko]

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

 

There were two big November snowstorms in SMI. The first was 11/22/15 that dropped a mere 12.5” in mby in Marshall (2nd all time for me) and the 2nd on 11/11/19 which hit Detroit proper with that 9.2” as mentioned and delivered 7” in Marshall. The 2015 storm hit northern burbs with big totals but not the city. Another big November storm was 11/26/18. Looking back we were on quite a roll with early snowstorms back in “the teens”! I’m sure that 2015 storm has some counterpart a 100 yrs ago but what a wildly anomalous event coming amidst an otherwise hot month. I remember the Friday evening before after work hearing the storm warning on the radio and it was a balmy 44 degrees and sunny. It just didn’t feel anything like an impending “Footer” which we’d never witnessed in far south MI so early. Once in a lifetime event for sure. 

Yes sir...the wild strings of November can happen. My question here is, If a November snowstorm happens, does that affect the upcoming winter season? Who knows right! If I were to take a guess, I would have to answer "No."

 

 

 

 

[Niko]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Same 37F up here where anything above freezing has to be considered balmy LOL. Hope you’re having a great Saturday amigo!

Ty my friend. Hope you are as well. 

[Sumweatherdude]

FWIW i’ve looked back at the years Kansas City has received  good seasonal snowfall, and warm Novembers don’t seem to have had any impact at all.  We had good snowfall seasons after warm Novembers plenty of times.   

[SE Nebraska wx]

Another month another blowtorch. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

On 10/29/2025 at 1:00 PM, Hoosier said:

It's the final month of meteorological Fall.  

CFS is indicating a mild west and central US.  Other models have something not too far off.  Fwiw, if this were to occur, it would be fairly different from how the anomalies were distributed in November 2024 (although with some overlap of warmth in the central US).

It does match the majority of the last 13 November's though

[jaster220]

Ofc, measurable "first" snow in November is much more common in NMI than SMI. The GFS has some morning commute snow on Veterans Day and the Euro flashing a more widespread batch-o-blue the day after. Taking both with a grain from this range but it does seem that there's at least an active pattern bringing regular precipitation chances. 

Euro

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Niko said:

Yes sir...the wild strings of November can happen. My question here is, If a November snowstorm happens, does that affect the upcoming winter season? Who knows right! If I were to take a guess, I would have to answer "No."

 

 

 

 

 

November snowstorms are atypical in SMI. Normally a bad sign (see 2019-20 and 1932-33 as prime examples. Be that as it may, two of the three storms I mentioned had good winters for Marshall (15-16 & 18-19). I know 15-16 was bad your way. Not sure about 18-19 tho.

[jaster220]

Euro even flashing a LR bomb in Yooperland. Keep in mind 11/17/13 was this low but all rain. 

[jaster220]

I thought first half of Nov was supposed to be a snoozer? Looks pretty active around here:

GEM

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I thought first half of Nov was supposed to be a snoozer? Looks pretty active around here:

GEM

Can you imagine this in the colder months. Look-out!!!

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Ofc, measurable "first" snow in November is much more common in NMI than SMI. The GFS has some morning commute snow on Veterans Day and the Euro flashing a more widespread batch-o-blue the day after. Taking both with a grain from this range but it does seem that there's at least an active pattern bringing regular precipitation chances. 

Euro

Is that snow for our backyard's amigo?? Snow reaches as far south as the Ohio border! Tbh, it does get quite cold around here by next weekend w high only in the lower 40s, if not colder by then.

[Niko]

It will be a cold nite here tanite w temps dropping down between 30-35F. Skies should be clearing, so I hope the cloudcover clears out in time, otherwise, it will be slightly warmer.

[Clinton]

The AO and NAO look to go negative in about a week.  Here are the temperature correlations for November. 

I think we are headed for a cool and stormy 2nd half of the month.

[Tom]

Did all of you enjoy the extra hour of sleep???  Out here in Arizona, we don't change our clocks and I actually like it this way to be honest.  It's a great time of year now that we can use the weather models/data an hour earlier...ahhh, don't have to stay up late to see the Euro data come in!!!  Happy Sunday Funday folks!!  

Not much weather changes on the horizon out here as the Southwest Ridge is really taking over and making itself present.  I will say, this is Prime Time Season out this way and temps hovering in the upper 80's this past week/weekend is a bit of extended Summer.  The good things is, temps drop quickly in the evening and you can open the windows and let in some fresh air at night and sleep quite well.  Love it!!

[westMJim]

Some weather history for November 2^nd, 1987 - A dozen cities, mostly in the Ohio Valley, reported record high temperatures for the date. Record highs included 83 degrees at Paducah KY and 84 degrees at Memphis TN. Temperatures reached 70 degrees as far north as southern Lower Michigan. Showers and thundershowers over southern Florida, associated with a tropical depression, produced 4.77 inches of rain at Tavernier, located in the Upper Florida Keys. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) and in 1989 - Squalls in the Upper Great Lakes Region the first three days of the month buried Ironwood MI under 46 inches of snow, and produced 40 inches at Hurley WI. Arctic cold invaded the Southern Plains Region. Midland TX reported a record low of 22 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 46/37 that high of 46 is the coldest high since April  10^th There were 23 HDD’s there was 0.03” of rainfall the highest wind gust of 16MPH was out of the SW.  For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 77 was in 1938 the coldest high of 31 was in 1951 the record low of 18 was in 1951 the warmest low of 60 was in 1936. The most rainfall of 2.69” was in 2003 the most snowfall of 1.5” was in 1991.  Looking out the window while there is moderate good color on the trees there is still a lot of leaves still on the trees for November 2^nd  I can not recall where there was still this many at the start of November.

FOLKLORE  There are old weather proverbs that suggest a link. Common beliefs include:

• If leaves fall early, the fall and winter will be mild.

• If leaves cling to the trees late into the autumn, a severe or "wild" winter will follow.

SCIENCE  The timing of leaf drop is a complex biological process influenced by immediate environmental factors, and these factors are not reliable long-range winter forecasts. 

Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids

Today

Patchy fog before 10am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 6 to 11 mph in the morning.

Tonight

A 40 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a steady temperature around 46. South southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday

A 30 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 56. West southwest wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 39. West wind 3 to 8 mph. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 57. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44.

 

[westMJim]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

Out here in Arizona, we don't change our clocks

I would like to make what we now call daylight time the time for the whole year. as we are now on that time from March to November why not just make it year round.

[Tom]

The clipper that has been tracking SE thru MN/IA and now into the mtn's of the App's is something that will be neat to track in future cycles.  There was a meso low on the LOT radar loop I noticed this morning.  

[Tom]

12 minutes ago, westMJim said:

I would like to make what we now call daylight time the time for the whole year. as we are now on that time from March to November why not just make it year round.

100% agree...

[Tom]

Looks like SE WI also got their share of some good ol' Lehs RN showers off LM...

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current/mcview.phtml?prod=lotrad&java=script&mode=archive&frames=75&interval=15&year=2025&month=11&day=1&hour=8&minute=0

 

[Tom]

I'm seeing a repetitive pattern or what is referred to as a "harmonic" pattern in the LRC.  Check out this map as it shows something that literally happened on a tad larger scale about 10-12 days ago for So Cal that lead to a somewhat stronger system targeting So CA./NV and the 4 corners.  Following this system, there was a parade of storms that targeted the PAC NW/N Rockies and low and behold, that is exactly what is happening now and into the coming week.  

Look at that little piece of energy (582mb) that starts off near N CA, then retrogrades off the So CAL coastline and then tracks into LA/Malibu and goes "up and over" a ridge near AZ/NM.  Some neat stuff in this years LRC in my region at least that have caught my attn and also will effect those to my East.

[Tom]

Hey now, that's a good looking Upper MW cutter...Go Big or Go Home!!!  If my instincts are right, the later half of NOV will be producing some Good Ol' Bombs...its the SW Flow part of the LRC that should kick in Bigly.  As @Clintonmentioned, the blocking up near West Greenland is looking to blossom  in the Week 2 period which was a Long Term Long Wave pattern that held strong.  I enjoy this time of year trying to figure out the weather pattern in the future and putting it all together like the "pieces of a complex puzzle."

 

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The AO and NAO look to go negative in about a week.  Here are the temperature correlations for November. 

I think we are headed for a cool and stormy 2nd half of the month.

Looks legit. What's the MJO looking like to go along with these indices? 

Based on the hot summer of '95 and how it nose-dived into an historic cold season, I commented to my wife when we were swimming in bath water warm Higgins Lake around the 3rd week of August "Amazing that just 3 months from now it could be snowing here and "winter"!

TBD if my intuition was/is correct but so far things are looking good.

EDIT - I wonder how long before models begin reflecting this?

[james1976]

30-40 mph wind gusts will knock most of the rest of the leaves down today. I bagged up some leaves yesterday but the front yard is covered again lol.

50s this week and mainly dry. That system next weekend looks to be mostly rain but highs look to be only around 40.

[Clinton]

@jaster220 Looks like it will be moving into phase 7 around the same time.

You may get colder before then as phase 5 in a la nina supports troughing over the lakes and NE.

[Clinton]

First flakes for mby possibly?

[Clinton]

As we move towards Thanksgiving the EPO also goes negative.  Let's see if the ridging over Alaska and western Canada trends stronger in the days to come.