PNW November 2025

[Doom Buster]

11 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like maybe a cargo plane? Good lord!

UPS

[Ken in Wood Village]

I think this storm is going to have some surprises. It has a lot of lightning over the Ocean right now

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Looks like maybe a cargo plane? Good lord!

Yeah, from what I've seen it had about 38,000 gallons of fuel, the left engine had an uncontained failure, that another engine may have ingested debris from the failure.  I said it should be able to take off on 2 out of 3 engines, but that is not the case on only 1 engine.

 

Very sad, it happened at 5pm local, and looks like it crashed into a bunch of warehouses.  Hopefully the workers at all of the industrial area where it crashed had peaced out for the day, otherwise the death toll could get pretty bad.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Wow, it sure is very active

[Omegaraptor]

https://kalshi.com/?category=climate
 

People are now betting on daily high temps in some US cities. I wonder if they’ll add Seattle and Portland. Fogversion days would probably get very interesting if so.

[Tanis Leach]

16 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

This conversation is tapping into my very specific flavour of autism... I love it.

From my years of perusing properties on the westside for snowfall, it's very difficult to find a palatable overlap between optimal snowfall dynamics, and the difficult logistics of owning property in climates that are objectively harsher than even the snowiest microclimates found within the metropolitan core; difficulties compounded by the distance between said regions. That includes HOA fees, what kinds of amenities you will need to ensure for yourself on your own terms, as well as your actual ability to access your property when the exact snowfall events you are seeking do eventually pan out. These civil logistics are region dependent and don't really follow any geographical trend. So it's really up to the specific tract of land you are looking at, and that research is pretty new to me, so this post won't cover any of the sort, since that would turn this this post from what is already a crazy wall of text, into the scroll from Kung Fu Panda.

Each microclimate in the region has its own strengths and weaknesses when it comes to snowfall. The Pacific Northwest is positioned in a very unique spot, sitting within a few hundred miles of, if not directly over, the 45th parallel; all the while our complex terrain facilitates the meeting grounds between continental Arctic airmasses, and a climatologically dominant moisture rich Pacific windflow. Not only does this mean that there is a sharp gradient in average snow level decreasing as you go north, but it also creates specific differences in the type of snowfall a location is likely to recieve.

Let's reference the hotly discussed Lake Cushman, for example. Positioned in the heart of the infamous Hood Canal cold air dam, right within the sharp southern foothills of the Olympic range, it's in a perfect spot to be gifted a plethora of terrain enhanced wet snowfall, while Seattle and co may be stuck above forty degrees receiving less than half the equivalent precipitation, in the form of drizzle nonetheless. The caveat to a such a location, however, is that it is just about as far away from the interior west as you can be without officially being coined a coastal town. This means that, while seasonal snowfall averages may exceed 100"; an insane number for just about anywhere along the west coast of the United States below a grand in elevation, and probably topping said chart I just invented; its snowfall in question will almost always be in the form of wet, sloppy quick-to-melt PNW brand concrete.

If we shift our focus further east toward North Bend, where our grumpy forum favorite huffs and puffs about his innate ability to #snowandcold when he never even wants it to (we can happily trade places buddy, you don't have to be miserable anymore), we begin to tap into continental easterly winds spilling west out of the Snoqualmie gap. This drier air means that, while elevation, annual snowfall, and annual liquid equivalent precipitation may be a near-exact match to Lake Cushman, North Bend, particularly its higher elevation boroughs along its southern perimeter; more sheltered but still accessed by those easterlies; can be ransacked by dry, fluffy snow during Arctic events, and keep it around for days longer, thanks to those easterlies keeping temperatures below freezing until whatever Arctic airmass is responsible finally leaves the much more sheltered Columbia River basin.

From my years of research, there are a few general rules of thumb:

1) Snowfall will tend to increase as you head north. This is fairly self evident... Proximity to the Arctic and lower sun angles will compound temperature differences along a tight latitudinal gradient. This can be bucked by local microclimates which shelter specific parts of the region from Arctic air, but this is more of a minority situation, as even coastal Vancouver island right at sea level regularly sees convective offshore wraparound dumping tens of inches in the right year.

2) Snowfall will always increase with elevation. This one is a universal truth along all areas of the west and eastside, within any mentioned microclimate. Firstly this is enforced by basic physics. Snow falls downward due to gravity. Whoa, shocked me too. If lower elevations are getting snowfall, the higher elevations are receiving at least that much, but usually more, thanks to colder temperatures and higher snowfall ratios (and less melting during marginal events). But the PNW specializes in making this vertical snowfall gradient even harsher, thanks to the dominant marine influence which defines our climate, meaning that unless there is a deeply embedded offshore Arctic flow regime, a regime that may avoid the region entirely during one of our increasingly common dud winters (account for the -PDO phase of the last decade or so and this trend is even more evident), whether any given location recieves snowfall or not will be dependent on whether said location is above the snow level. Often times this snow level is as sharp as the height of a tree, or even your own house; truly fascinating stuff worthy of its own deep dive.

3) Lastly, and I think this is most crucial when defining snowfall microclimates anywhere along the westside, is that beginning roughly around the Columbia River gap (PDX-Sandy), and continuing northward toward the border: the closer you are to the Cascades, the drier your snow will be. This is of course ignoring the universal snow drying influences of increasing in elevation. South of the Columbia River gap, most of the Cascade gaps are too shallow to locally influence drying during most Arctic setups. The Mackenzie gap east of Eugene, for instance, blocks Arctic air surging east of the crest with over a vertical mile of volcanic terrain. If continental Arctic air is influencing snowfall events in Salem and Eugene, that air is almost always being sourced from the Columbia and Fraser river gaps, and will be influenced by that air in no particular parity compared to the foothills to their east. In fact, as we've seen a number of recent times beginning February 2021, the western foothills of the OR Cascades can evade continental Arctic air entirely, since that dense, cold air will tend to first pool in the valleys below, before reinforcing masses of air enforce the valley cold and push the vertical boundary upward.

So, summing this all up, there are a handful of locations that stand out to me in terms of snow efficacy. I'll name some:

- Lake Cushman: As stated before, lots of wet snow thanks to being simultaneously in the lee of the Olympics, whilst never being within its rain shadow. Of course this is almost always wet snow, but when it comes to seasonal totals, Lake Cushman is a perfect case of having your cake, and eating all of it too. Close analog: Silver Falls

- North Bend: Oh look, the two specific examples I mentioned. There's a reason why I did so. This place is kind of a cheat code, with all the precip and snow of Lake Cushman, but more of an Arctic flavor. Eat all your blessed cake, but with frosting on top too! Tim, that offer still stands, I'll work full time at whatever garden you are tending to in Sacramento/Tacoma, or wherever. Please mate. I deserve your climate more than your San Diegoan fleeing-from-Minnesota azz  Close analog: Skykomish

- Columbia River region, from Cascade Locks to Yacolt. A similar situation to North Bend, with a wide variety in extremes and elevation. Direct Pacific moisture influence with a touch of Columbia River easterlies. Some of the properties here exceed 2k ft in elevation. There is a criminal lack of data here, and it spans both WA and OR, so @SpaceRace22 would have a chance to rep the opposing team

- Port Angeles/Sequim foothills. Hi, @Port Angeles Foothiller! This is probably the most boom-or-bust location west of the WA Cascades. It sits squarely in the middle of the cursed Olympic shadow, meaning it can completely dud when even Seattle gets a taste of frozen goodness, but when Fraser outflow picks up Juan de Fuca moisture and slams it against the NE Olympics, or when a CZ eddy parks itself to the south of PA proper, this place can cook harder than the east coast. I'm serious. And I'm not just referencing some obscure 19th century event we would all hope to re-live.... February 2019, while crushing even Seattle proper with two overperforming snow events, knelt to these foothills as the true kings of the infamous snowmaggeddon, plopping feet of unending whiteout powdery snow in a night, on two separate occasions. This place also has over two thousand feet in elevation potential, in addition to recent analogs to evidence its snowfall ability. Not to mention, I know for a fact that most of the properties for sale, including the ones highest above sea level, have ready access to Port Angeles electricity, water, and gas, without any of the HOA fees, while bordering on BLA territory, thanks to the ongoing logging industry in the area. Underrated IMO, even with the shadowing.

- Lynden, or anywhere near the Fraser River gap: This is the westside's best attempt at a continental airmass. If a system's low center is approaching from the southwest from November through March, this place is probably going to start off with (at the very least wet) snow, and maybe even stay frozen entirely, even without deep Arctic influence. It's just that reliable. This is one of those cool locations, that, while increasing elevation will still do wonders, even the valley floor will provide a snow climate unlike anywhere south of Whatcom County. A true hidden gem. This place is also notable for being blasted by outflow, being one of the only spots in the lowland Pacific Northwest to regularly get blowing snow and blizzard conditions. And if you like rapid, almost instantaneous Arctic fronts and their associated precip switches, this is your go-to spot. Have at it, weather nerds.

Top tier write up. Great overview on our microclimates. 

[Tanis Leach]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

In 1949, it was 12/10. 

In 1968, it was 12/19.

In 2008, it was 12/14.

Looks like mid December is the sweet spot.

2 of those are top 10 warmest November's at PDX. Dont know how SEA numbers compare.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Lightning is increasing 🌩

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Tanis Leach said:

2 of those are top 10 warmest November's at PDX. Dont know how SEA numbers compare.

2016 was also a total torchfest in November. Everything flipped as soon as the calendar did.

[Tanis Leach]

SPC has western Oregon with a marginal chance of tornadoes tomorrow. 

Nadocast models also included.

[Meatyorologist]

7 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Top tier write up. Great overview on our microclimates. 

Thank you! I was worried that some of us who actually live in the mentioned areas were going to rightfully school me on how wrong I was but I guess I mostly hit the mark.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Tanis Leach said:

SPC has western Oregon with a marginal chance of tornadoes tomorrow. 

Nadocast models also included.

It's nice to see the SPC come around on our coastal tornado risk in recent years. I think after Lincoln City in 2016 the government was shocked into taking the cold core postfrontal threat more seriously.

[Tanis Leach]

2 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

2016 was also a total torchfest in November. Everything flipped as soon as the calendar did.

8/10 hit rate for either a major arctic blast, or a top 1/3 year in snowfall (trend adjusted) after a top 10 warmest November. This is the only month to winter where I feel the correlation is strong enough to use.

[Tanis Leach]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thank you! I was worried that some of us who actually live in the mentioned areas were going to rightfully school me on how wrong I was but I guess I mostly hit the mark.

Schooling starts tomorrow, 3 am.

(/s)

 

Jokes aside, it doesn't cover all the microclimates and their interactions. I know the ones in the WV/Lower Columbia River and lot better than the Puget Sound, but others know the Puget Sound better. It all balances out. 

[backyardtrains]

I went into my local Albertsons today and they must be ready for winter. They have a half dozen snow shovels lined up for sale by the front door. 

[Deweydog]

2” for the month.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

55F with some steady rain. Nice day!

[MossMan]

Out to the dump pile they went since they were starting to mold. Also a thin layer of smoke to the east as we were heading towards Sedro Woolley earlier. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Rain has just started up here in the last few minutes. Closing in on 1” for November. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Well, I'm off to bed. 3am comes really fast. I thought I would check the lightning tracker and was amazed to see how many lightning strikes there are now. Let's hope for some action here in the Portland area 🌩

[Kolk1604]

Looks like a decent signal for a GOA ridge from the end of this month into December on the weeklies. 

 

[High Desert Mathew]

2 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

8/10 hit rate for either a major arctic blast, or a top 1/3 year in snowfall (trend adjusted) after a top 10 warmest November. This is the only month to winter where I feel the correlation is strong enough to use.

Hasn’t been warm thus far. Looks like that part is about to change though.  How about precip correlation?

[Jbolin]

2 hours ago, backyardtrains said:

I went into my local Albertsons today and they must be ready for winter. They have a half dozen snow shovels lined up for sale by the front door. 

Half a dozen?

...LOCKITIN...

[MossMan]

Windy. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

While the airport had a freeze in Oct, Springfield did not so we are still waiting for our first one. Maybe it'll be in Dec again like 2016. No high temps below 50F yet either. Again, the airport had some, but not the PWS here.

[Low Dew point]

11 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

That west coast warm finger is still there on the ECMWF for this weekend.    I was told it was cherry picking a couple days ago but it is going to happen.   The ECMWF shows some offshore flow that day which is why the foothills are shown to be the warmest spot.   I wouldn't be surprised to see upper 60s on Sunday in North Bend.

Which according to late means about 52-54 IMBY.  I've been paying attention on nice days when you posy the Mount Si cam view that I am running almost 10° lower.  That'll change as the weather turns nice, I mean cold.  I wouldn't mind a warm day or two,,,,,,,,right now.

[snostorm21]

59 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Looks like a decent signal for a GOA ridge from the end of this month into December on the weeklies. 

 

Plenty of cold and snowy members in the latest run.

[snostorm21]

Good signal for some colder than average temperatures on the extended models. Warmth over Alaska is also a good sign. Really hoping for a month-long, Feb 2019 type deluge of cold and snow this December!!

[Low Dew point]

11 hours ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Tomorrow and Thursday has a bit of an upslope signature to it. Wetter west of the sound and drier closer to the east side. I’m expecting it’ll be wet out here in silverdale. 

It never ceases to amaze me the variety and number of micro-climates in the region.  An awesome aspect of that I find is that if you are jonesing for a certain type of weather, and it's the right season, you can find it here somewhere within driving distance.

 

[Low Dew point]

6 hours ago, Edmonds Husky said:

When do you all think KSEA will see their first sub-40 high?

Are you........

[TigerWoodsLibido]

14 minutes ago, Low Dew point said:

It never ceases to amaze me the variety and number of micro-climates in the region.  An awesome aspect of that I find is that if you are jonesing for a certain type of weather, and it's the right season, you can find it here somewhere within driving distance.

 

If you can drive...

[Low Dew point]

2 hours ago, backyardtrains said:

I went into my local Albertsons today and they must be ready for winter. They have a half dozen snow shovels lined up for sale by the front door. 

It's over.

[Snownerd3000]

GFS is trying

[Low Dew point]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you can drive...

It could come for me some day my friend.  I have fibromyalgia and it does weird things. So far I keep myself relatively healthy with good food and exercise.  I used to manage 75+ employees and am now on disability with memory problems. But I feel you. 

[Tanis Leach]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's nice to see the SPC come around on our coastal tornado risk in recent years. I think after Lincoln City in 2016 the government was shocked into taking the cold core postfrontal threat more seriously.

This AMS video may be of interest: https://ams.confex.com/ams/98Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/44656?recordingid=44656&uniqueid=Paper330304&entry_password=null

 

Some TLDR:

Most likely to happen 16 or 32 hours after front passage (+/- 2 hours) and either early morning or in the afternoon.

Criteria required:

Helicity 0-3km: greater than 150 m²/s²

850 mb temps must be at least 8°C colder than the SSTs, and 700 mb must be at least 18°C colder than the SSTs.

850 mb winds must be 17 knots or greater

850 wind direction between 235° and 305° plus 500 mb wind must be less than 305°.

All 4 must be present to have storms. There is an 80% hit rate between this criteria and 1 rotating thunderstorm. 

[RentonHill]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

Windy. 

Dude it’s frickin BREEZY

 

had to restrap the patio table cover already

[Tanis Leach]

36 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If you can drive...

Just join my running program and a whole new way of travel become possible! Can translate into cycling easily. 

 

(/s. Kind of. I have biked 65 miles in one shot before, though not in snow.)

[High Desert Mathew]

@Tanis Leach I saw you post about November warmth correlation for the following “colder” winters, but have you checked out any correlation to dry or wet Novembers and what they might have in store?

[Doom Buster]

42 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

This AMS video may be of interest: https://ams.confex.com/ams/98Annual/videogateway.cgi/id/44656?recordingid=44656&uniqueid=Paper330304&entry_password=null

 

Some TLDR:

Most likely to happen 16 or 32 hours after front passage (+/- 2 hours) and either early morning or in the afternoon.

Criteria required:

Helicity 0-3km: greater than 150 m²/s²

850 mb temps must be at least 8°C colder than the SSTs, and 700 mb must be at least 18°C colder than the SSTs.

850 mb winds must be 17 knots or greater

850 wind direction between 235° and 305° plus 500 mb wind must be less than 305°.

All 4 must be present to have storms. There is an 80% hit rate between this criteria and 1 rotating thunderstorm. 

That's some hardcore science/research. Fascinating.

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, High Desert Mathew said:

@Tanis Leach I saw you post about November warmth correlation for the following “colder” winters, but have you checked out any correlation to dry or wet Novembers and what they might have in store?

No notable correlation that I have found yet. There is an Oct-Dec correlation to the rest of the water year but I haven't found enough to justify reducing it yet.