PNW November 2025

[Meatyorologist]

Tomorrow looks like an interesting weather day for Seattle. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms out of the southwest, beginning in the late morning and lasting into the night. Not too often do we see postfrontal convective flow from such a southerly direction, and the duration should allow for several shots at lightning and hail. The stratopause will be up to 300mb tomorrow, with convection tapping into a strong jet on the periphery of the low offshore, with cold Alaskan-sourced upper levels wrapping around. 300-700j/kg of CAPE could be realized if there are sunbreaks. Models are also fairly trigger happy on a powerful cold frontal boundary Thursday afternoon as a reinforcing shot of GOA air enters the area... That should bring a round of heavy rain with localized lightning and hail as well.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

5 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

Just join my running program and a whole new way of travel become possible! Can translate into cycling easily. 

 

(/s. Kind of. I have biked 65 miles in one shot before, though not in snow.)

I would do that if my cyber implant allowed it. It malfunctions and my brain starts hurting if I run too long or if I swim too much or cycle too long.

I can hike tho, and trudge through snow.

Neuropace and a bunch of smart folks from Harvard, Stanford, Cal and Michigan amongst others saved my life. Cyberware truly is the future and it works.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I'm about to start work but wanted to post something really quick. 

It looks to be a very active day. Hopefully I'll be able to see a thunderstorm or two 🌩

[TT-SEA]

7 hours ago, Low Dew point said:

Which according to late means about 52-54 IMBY.  I've been paying attention on nice days when you posy the Mount Si cam view that I am running almost 10° lower.  That'll change as the weather turns nice, I mean cold.  I wouldn't mind a warm day or two,,,,,,,,right now.

Yeah... with offshore flow this weekend it will be at least 10 degrees warmer out here compared to the west side of the Sound.    But when we really get a cold a pattern it will be warmer there.  

You can see the effects of offshore flow this morning with temps warmer on the east side of the Sound.

[iFred]

Anyone want to dive into how a -IOD has impacted the Pacific Northwest?
 

 

[BlvuSumit]

Regarding microclimates, I think a scoring system could be useful:

Elevation: 0-250 ft: 0 points. 250-500 ft: 1 point. 500-750 ft: 3 pts. 750-1000 ft: 5 points. Over 1000 ft: 8 points

Latitude: south of Tacoma narrows: 0 points. Tacoma - everett: 1 point. North of everett, 2 points.

General orographics: cascade foothills 2 points

Special features: convergence zone Everett- Kenmore 3 points; convergence zone south of kenmore to SeaTac/maple valley 2 points; Fraser outflow zone 3 points, hood canal/west mason west kitsap county 2 points.

total all points for the 4 categories, divide by 15, then multiply by 10, there you have your winter fun score for the puget sound lowlands.  I’m sure others may want to tweak it somehow.  
 

another issue I don’t see discussed: whether certain zones are favored entering the artic spell or on transitioning out of the arctic spell. I would argue the zones north and east towards cascades and with elevation are favored going in; hood canal favored going out of the arctic spell. That matters I think cuz snow that you get at the beginning hangs around longer in pristine shape as opposed to wet slop

[BlvuSumit]

Would add 3 points for sequim area that gets upslope w Fraser outflow to the special features section 

[Meatyorologist]

Early morning Fall vibes in the Magnolia neighborhood.

Ballard -> Magnolia -> Queen Anne -> Phinney Ridge -> Ballard, total 4 hours of walking

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Dumping rain here in silverdale. 

[Groundhog]

43 minutes ago, iFred said:

Anyone want to dive into how a -IOD has impacted the Pacific Northwest?
 

 

Would be interesting to know if a deep negative IDO is causal in strong El Niños the following year.

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, BlvuSumit said:

Regarding microclimates, I think a scoring system could be useful:

Elevation: 0-250 ft: 0 points. 250-500 ft: 1 point. 500-750 ft: 3 pts. 750-1000 ft: 5 points. Over 1000 ft: 8 points

Latitude: south of Tacoma narrows: 0 points. Tacoma - everett: 1 point. North of everett, 2 points.

General orographics: cascade foothills 2 points

Special features: convergence zone Everett- Kenmore 3 points; convergence zone south of kenmore to SeaTac/maple valley 2 points; Fraser outflow zone 3 points, hood canal/west mason west kitsap county 2 points.

total all points for the 4 categories, divide by 15, then multiply by 10, there you have your winter fun score for the puget sound lowlands.  I’m sure others may want to tweak it somehow.  
 

another issue I don’t see discussed: whether certain zones are favored entering the artic spell or on transitioning out of the arctic spell. I would argue the zones north and east towards cascades and with elevation are favored going in; hood canal favored going out of the arctic spell. That matters I think cuz snow that you get at the beginning hangs around longer in pristine shape as opposed to wet slop

One thing missing is a northern pscz which often  times sets up right in my area at the Snohomish/Skagit border before slipping south. 

[the_convergence_zone]

49 minutes ago, iFred said:

Anyone want to dive into how a -IOD has impacted the Pacific Northwest?
 

 

It favors phase 6 of the MJO which equals a stormy pattern in fall which is exactly what we’re seeing and eventually cold air intrusions into the eastern US. 

My understanding is that if the MJO sticks in 6 then we have to wait for retrogression, if it progresses to 8-1 then we could get cold air sooner. 

Looking at the Euro Weeklies/CFS/etc  it looks like the “sticks in 6” is the more likely solution at the moment which would imply higher heights in NE Pacific in December. Which seems logical with the IOD being so negative helping to keep the MJO where it is, as well as La Niña strengthening. So I’m pessimistic on December arctic intrusions at the moment but we could get NW flow at least and snowpack buildup if we’re lucky. 

[MossMan]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It favors phase 6 of the MJO which equals a stormy pattern in fall which is exactly what we’re seeing and eventually cold air intrusions into the eastern US. 

My understanding is that if the MJO sticks in 6 then we have to wait for retrogression, if it progresses to 8-1 then we could get cold air sooner. 

Looking at the Euro Weeklies/CFS/etc  it looks like the “sticks in 6” is the more likely solution at the moment which would imply higher heights in NE Pacific in December. Which seems logical with the IOD being so negative helping to keep the MJO where it is, as well as La Niña strengthening. So I’m pessimistic on December arctic intrusions at the moment but we could get NW flow at least and snowpack buildup if we’re lucky. 

Ugh. 
Looks like we wait until February once again. 

[T-Town]

45 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Early morning Fall vibes in the Magnolia neighborhood.

Ballard -> Magnolia -> Queen Anne -> Phinney Ridge -> Ballard, total 4 hours of walking

I love this. I have always liked walking as a way of exploring. Even in a relatively familiar place. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Ugh. 
Looks like we wait until February once again. 

I wouldn’t count on that being correct

The optimistic take is that it’s teetering on a pattern that is quite favorable for us, and overall the likelihood of getting some juicy stuff eventually is pretty high. 

[Edmonds Husky]

6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It favors phase 6 of the MJO which equals a stormy pattern in fall which is exactly what we’re seeing and eventually cold air intrusions into the eastern US. 

My understanding is that if the MJO sticks in 6 then we have to wait for retrogression, if it progresses to 8-1 then we could get cold air sooner. 

Looking at the Euro Weeklies/CFS/etc  it looks like the “sticks in 6” is the more likely solution at the moment which would imply higher heights in NE Pacific in December. Which seems logical with the IOD being so negative helping to keep the MJO where it is, as well as La Niña strengthening. So I’m pessimistic on December arctic intrusions at the moment but we could get NW flow at least and snowpack buildup if we’re lucky. 

That sounds pretty reasonable, but does this pattern make us jump to MJO 8-1 and skip over the coveted phase 7? I think once we leave phase 6 (however long that takes) will be our window for fun

[Edmonds Husky]

4 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ugh. 
Looks like we wait until February once again. 

Or perhaps this is the year that January shines (finally)

[Tenochtitlan]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow looks like an interesting weather day for Seattle. Multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms out of the southwest, beginning in the late morning and lasting into the night. Not too often do we see postfrontal convective flow from such a southerly direction, and the duration should allow for several shots at lightning and hail. The stratopause will be up to 300mb tomorrow, with convection tapping into a strong jet on the periphery of the low offshore, with cold Alaskan-sourced upper levels wrapping around. 300-700j/kg of CAPE could be realized if there are sunbreaks. Models are also fairly trigger happy on a powerful cold frontal boundary Thursday afternoon as a reinforcing shot of GOA air enters the area... That should bring a round of heavy rain with localized lightning and hail as well.

Yeah, I’m feeling bullish on lightning chances today considering a good amount is already showing up offshore.

https://www.lightningmaps.org
 

NWS Portland discussion gives a 5-14% chance of 1” hail. Maybe today will be the day I finally experience larger than marble-sized hail lol 

[High Desert Mathew]

9 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Ugh. 
Looks like we wait until February once again. 

Or we just pray for a Siberian SSW. 

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

That sounds pretty reasonable, but does this pattern make us jump to MJO 8-1 and skip over the coveted phase 7? I think once we leave phase 6 (however long that takes) will be our window for fun

I don’t know enough about the MJO to answer that, I don’t understand the physical mechanism behind it sticking in a phase vs progressing to 7-8-1. 

[iFred]

We are also due for a multiyear stretch of dud winters. Great for gardeners and invasive species though.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

We are also due for a multiyear stretch of dud winters. Great for gardeners and invasive species though.

Maybe the new normal is not dud winters.

[Edmonds Husky]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

We are also due for a multiyear stretch of dud winters. Great for gardeners and invasive species though.

Mhm, maybe we’ll see something truly special in the great winter of 2029-30.

[Tenochtitlan]

Whoa, SWS for western Oregon mentioning possible brief tornadoes and wind gusts up to 60 mph! Sounds like they could have issued a severe thunderstorm watch, but maybe they’re being cautious because the last time they issued one was mostly a bust.

[Tanis Leach]

28 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Whoa, SWS for western Oregon mentioning possible brief tornadoes and wind gusts up to 60 mph! Sounds like they could have issued a severe thunderstorm watch, but maybe they’re being cautious because the last time they issued one was mostly a bust.

The Portland NWS does not have the authority to issue a severe thunderstorm watch. Only the SPC can do that. 

[MossMan]

The Fuzz. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Here is a Special Weather Statement from the NWS. 

Special Weather Statement

National Weather Service Portland OR

958 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

 

ORZ101>118-123>125-WAZ201>208-060300-Clatsop County Coast-Tillamook County Coast-Central Coast of Oregon-North Oregon Coast Range Lowlands-Central Oregon Coast Range Lowlands-North Oregon Coast Range-Central Oregon Coast Range-Lower Columbia River-Tualatin Valley-Portland West Hills and Chehalem Mountain-Inner Portland Metro-East Portland Metro-Outer Southeast Portland Metro-West Central Willamette Valley-East Central Willamette Valley-Benton County Lowlands-Linn County Lowlands-Lane County Lowlands-Clackamas County Cascade Foothills-Cascade Foothills of Marion and Linn Counties-Lane County Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa and Wahkiakum Lowlands-Willapa Hills-Cowlitz County Lowlands-North Clark County Lowlands-Inner Vancouver Metro-East Clark County Lowlands-South Washington Cascade Foothills-Including the cities of Astoria, Warrenton, Seaside, Cannon Beach, Manzanita, Rockaway Beach, Tillamook, Pacific City, Neskowin, Lincoln City, Newport, Waldport, Florence, Vernonia, Jewell, Glenwood, Necanicum, Knappa, Grand Ronde Indian Reservation, Mapleton, Alma, Alsea, Hoskins, Grand Ronde, Sunset Summit, Wilson River Summit, Valsetz, Horton, Mary`s Peak, Scappoose, St. Helens, Rainier, Clatskanie, Sherwood, Hillsboro, Forest Grove, Rockcreek, Tigard, Sylvan Hill, Skyline Drive, Chehalem Mountain, Portland, Sellwood, Happy Valley, Lake Oswego, Oregon City, Eagle Creek, Fairview, Gresham, Troutdale, Boring, Sandy, Estacada, McMinnville, Newberg, Sheridan, Dallas, Monmouth, Salem, Keizer, Woodburn, Wilsonville, Molalla, Stayton, Silverton, Corvallis, Philomath, Monroe, Albany, Lebanon, Brownsville, Harrisburg, Eugene, Springfield, Junction City, Creswell, Cottage Grove, Cherryville, Brightwood, Rhododendron, Welches, Detroit, Silver Falls, Mill City, McKenzie Bridge, Vida, Oakridge, Raymond, Tokeland, Ocean Park, Long Beach, Naselle, Cathlamet, Rosburg, Lebam, Willapa, Brooklyn, Kelso, Longview, Castle Rock, Kalama, Woodland, Ridgefield, Battle Ground, Hockinson, Brush Prairie, La Center, Vancouver, Salmon Creek, Evergreen, Camas, Washougal, Yacolt, Amboy, Lake Merwin, and Toutle

958 AM PST Wed Nov 5 2025

 

...STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO...

 

A cool and unstable airmass over northwest Oregon and southwest

Washington today will result in scattered showers and

thunderstorms through Wednesday evening. Stronger showers and

thunderstorms will have the potential to produce locally damaging

wind gusts up to 60 mph and/or a funnel cloud or brief tornado.

If you see a funnel cloud or a tornado, or if a Tornado Warning

or a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is issued for your area, you

should go to an interior room on the lowest floor of your

residence. In addition, you should take actions to protect your

head, such as getting under a sturdy table. If you are outdoors

and cannot get to shelter, get in a ditch or culvert and cover

your head. Never go under an overpass during high winds or a

tornado.

 

[Tenochtitlan]

There are already three warned storms off the coast!

[Ken in Wood Village]

8 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

There are already three warned storms off the coast!

Yea, those Warnings are for possible waterspouts.

Edited November 5, 2025 by Ken in Wood Village
Added lightning strikes!!

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The Fuzz. 

I think we are heading for a period of cool but active weather starting around mid month.  Maybe NW flow for big mountain snows and some higher foothill chances.  No signs of any major blocking in the models yet. Looks pretty progressive.  

[Edmonds Husky]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think we are heading for a period of cool but active weather starting around mid month.  Maybe NW flow for big mountain snows and some higher foothill chances.  No signs of any major blocking in the models yet. Looks pretty progressive.  

Similar to last November perhaps? Hopefully we don’t go positive PNA afterwards for almost the whole season like last time

[MossMan]

Windy again! 
.29” so far on the day. 

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Similar to last November perhaps? Hopefully we don’t go positive PNA afterwards for almost the whole season like last time

My gut has always been feeling late November through mid December could be a window for some cold weather chances this season.  We shall see  

[Tanis Leach]

MD issued

It should be noted a 20% chance of a watch is the same as prior to the Manzinita tornado (then they reduced it to 5% when it went through). 

Edited November 5, 2025 by Tanis Leach

[Edmonds Husky]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My gut has always been feeling late November through mid December could be a window for some cold weather chances this season.  We shall see  

I hope we do get something around then that continues into Christmas

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

My gut has always been feeling late November through mid December could be a window for some cold weather chances this season.  We shall see  

You sure its not food poisoning?

 

All seriousness, it does kinda have that feel to it.

[Edmonds Husky]

I also want to have multiple snow chances this year tbh, one and done years are kinda lame

[Blizzard777]

Getting ready to pack my bags and head back home.

Looks like a lot of fun in that direction…yikes! 

[Deweydog]

Coast is getting ROCKED!

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Heavy rain in silverdale….radar looks intriguing hopefully still some lightning by the time it works inland. Usually these fronts peter out once they work inland though.