PNW November 2025

[Edmonds Husky]

5 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The Euro seemed to be showing NW progressive pattern. Maybe we’ll get some snowpack buildup from that. 

That’s good. Get the snowpack going and then settle in later on with a good ridge in the sweet spot

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Taxes are so cheap in Washington as a whole. No income tax and low property taxes. But you pay for what you get, the infrastructure sucks. 

lol

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I’m going to do my best @MossMan. 3 weeks after moving here. 11/3/2017. I quickly learned that elevation matters. My mobile app said rain overnight, woke up to 6”. 

[Edmonds Husky]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m going to do my best @MossMan. 3 weeks after moving here. 11/3/2017. I quickly learned that elevation matters. My mobile app said rain overnight, woke up to 6”. 

Manifesting many wintry scenes like this all over the lowlands this winter 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

@Phil stealing all the cold air.

[Edmonds Husky]

14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

@Phil stealing all the cold air.

Good. Let them get the mediocre November air and then it shifts west for us during primetime

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m going to do my best @MossMan. 3 weeks after moving here. 11/3/2017. I quickly learned that elevation matters. My mobile app said rain overnight, woke up to 6”. 

Love it! I woke up to a dusting which was a big win in my book at my old place which was only at 280’ in elevation. A few days later we got a little more! 

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

I’m going to do my best @MossMan. 3 weeks after moving here. 11/3/2017. I quickly learned that elevation matters. My mobile app said rain overnight, woke up to 6”. 

That was a decent little early season hit.  We had about 3” that day and another inch a day later.  34/30 day on the 4th.  

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

That was a decent little early season hit.  We had about 3” that day and another inch a day later.  34/30 day on the 4th.  

Then a White Christmas, and a second half of February that was off the rails! 

[MossMan]

Today’s Fuzz. 

[iFred]

Nice morning. 46º, overcast, and humid.

[Edmonds Husky]

21 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nice morning. 46º, overcast, and humid.

Very dark outside too. The gloom hath arrived

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Taxes are so cheap in Washington as a whole. No income tax and low property taxes. But you pay for what you get, the infrastructure sucks. 

Owning a business in this state is a nightmare. I'm stuck here and i can't stand it, Highest freaking gas prices in the nation,  Everything is expensive in this new state of California called Washington. The cost of only 4 employees is criminal. Pride is the only reason my business is open and we are still here. But we are very VERY close to selling everything and moving to Idaho or Montana in a off grid situation. My woman is for it 100%. 

[Make -PNA Great Again]

25 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Owning a business in this state is a nightmare. I'm stuck here and i can't stand it, Highest freaking gas prices in the nation,  Everything is expensive in this new state of California called Washington. The cost of only 4 employees is criminal. Pride is the only reason my business is open and we are still here. But we are very VERY close to selling everything and moving to Idaho or Montana in an off grid situation. My woman is for it 100%. 

It’s awesome out here.  10/10 highly recommend.  You can still get a nice/“cute” house here in the hebgen basin for a little over $400k.  Will have great 360 views too.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Then a White Christmas, and a second half of February that was off the rails! 

We had a lot of snow during the second half of December in 2017.  About 10” on the ground Christmas morning but February was a bit of a miss.  I’d take that trade off though.  December snow is much better than late February snow.  

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Very dark outside too. The gloom hath arrived

Ahhh but the ECMWF is holding strong with a sunny, warm weekend ahead.   Very nice timing.

[Front Ranger]

4 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

any good LOGZ!?

2003, 1950, 1988, 1984, 2008, and 2001 all had record warmth around this time.

[crf450ish]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2003, 1950, 1988, 1984, 2008, and 2001 all had record warmth around this time.

And we all know what happened in December 2008

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

46 minutes ago, Negative PNA Enjoyoor said:

It’s awesome out here.  10/10 highly recommend.  You can still get a nice/“cute” house here in the hebgen basin for a little over $400k.  Will have great 360 views too.

That area is one of my top picks. I snowmobile a bunch and that area for that is incredible.

[Chewbacca Defense]

15 hours ago, MossMan said:

I would gladly take $6! Our property taxes for 2025 were a touch over $8k here (just over 5 acres) The lake house is at just over $9k. (50ft of waterfront) 

Anything with a water view in Bellingham has a significant premium attached to it.....I think close to double, but don't quote me on that.  A guy I used to work with on Yew St Hill was literally right on the line for a water view.  He did not, but his next door neighbor technically did.....the water was 3-4 miles away and was just a view of the NE corner of the bay.  For my friend, if you stood in just the right spot, and the sun was at the right angle you could get a glint of water at his house.

 

Anyway, he said his neighbors property taxes were significantly more than his, and their house and property were otherwise fairly equal.

[Phishy Wx]

44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2003, 1950, 1988, 1984, 2008, and 2001 all had record warmth around this time.

eyeing 1984-85 and 2001-02 as closest to current state, front loaded winters

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Owning a business in this state is a nightmare. I'm stuck here and i can't stand it, Highest freaking gas prices in the nation,  Everything is expensive in this new state of California called Washington. The cost of only 4 employees is criminal. Pride is the only reason my business is open and we are still here. But we are very VERY close to selling everything and moving to Idaho or Montana in a off grid situation. My woman is for it 100%. 

I've heard Washington state is absolutely horrible for a small business owner, and apparently Bellingham is +1 for horribleness.  I have to admit, seeing/hearing Negative PNA's West Yellowstone experience is a very tempting lure, but I need to be able to travel for work now.  It's a 15-20 minute drive to the airport for me now, 30-40 minute flight to Seattle (and I get to skip Seattle security), and I could be on a flight to anywhere in the country by 8am. 

Wintertime travel out of that region is "interesting."  One of my son's flights home from Bozeman got cancelled because it was too cold, I think it was around -30 to -40 before accounting for windchill.  It was deemed unsafe for the ground crew.  Of course, ranchers in the area said "hold my frozen beer" and still went out to check/feed their cattle.

[fubario]

Just read on X a possible "Sting Jet" off the coast of Newfoundland tomorrow night into Wednesday could produce winds of up to 130mph! as result of a "bombing-out" mid-latitude low pressure. The article said "7% of the air will be missing from the middle of the storm creating a vacuum effect pulling strong winds inwards. Bro 

[SunnyWeatherFan]

I'll hopefully be living in Bellingham starting next fall. I applied to WWU on Saturday, so wish me luck! 

Better climate there

[High Desert Mathew]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

eyeing 1984-85 and 2001-02 as closest to current state, front loaded winters

Yuck

[Edmonds Husky]

23 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

eyeing 1984-85 and 2001-02 as closest to current state, front loaded winters

Were those years also weak Ninas?

[SunnyWeatherFan]

19 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The north slope of Mt Constitution is a super interesting snow zone I had never thought about. Looks like the property up there is limited, but there are a few options between 1200 and 1800ft or so. I didn't realize how quickly the elevation goes up there on that north shore. You can get some gorgeous, close up ocean views while still being well over 1,000ft. And you're probably right that they could have some very interesting setups there once the Fraser winds crank up...

Definitely going to file this area away on my list. I'm probably going to be in the market for some kind of vacation property within the next few years. Really would like something within 3 hours of Seattle with views and that gets a good amount of snow without getting unreasonable (ie Snoqualmie Pass).

This one is at 1300ft and still has an awesome ocean & Mt Baker view. Maybe some day... https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1669-Day-Lake-Road-Orcas-Island-WA-98245/61002890_zpid/

That's my dream home

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, crf450ish said:

And we all know what happened in December 2008

 

I would give nearly anything for a repeat. 

[MossMan]

41 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

eyeing 1984-85 and 2001-02 as closest to current state, front loaded winters

Yuck. We might as well cancel winter if that’s the case. 

[Meatyorologist]

6 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Putting on my Phil hat here, we need to get out of this +AAM regime (positive angular momentum anomaly = strong north Pac jet) or we’re gonna keep getting hammered with storms off the Pacific. My read of the MJO is that it’s strong and on the wrong side that we want it to be. So it’s probably going to take like a month to wait for the teleconnections to align more in our favor. Thank you for attending my TED talk. 

No pressure, but I'd love more posts like these. It's nice to have a real pro in here who knows their stuff

[Edmonds Husky]

47 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Yuck. We might as well cancel winter if that’s the case. 

Only 84-85 was a weak Nina for the record out of those two. 
Another weak Nina where Denver had record warmth around this time was…2008
 

[the_convergence_zone]

49 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

No pressure, but I'd love more posts like these. It's nice to have a real pro in here who knows their stuff

Much appreciated! I was doing a little more searching around after I posted that, it turns out the IOD (Indian dipole) is negative now also which further feeds momentum into the midlatitudes because the combo of that and La Niña pushes all the convection over to the east side of the maritime continent where it more readily feeds the jet. So that makes the MJO want to sit in phase 6-ish and increases the likelihood that the initial arctic intrusions will go east of the Rockies.

So honestly it looks a lot like last year to me, I just hope we’re not waiting around for a retrograde for 2/3 of the winter. I don’t know if you can really predict what this stuff is going to do though, sometimes the MJO will keep progressing and other times it doesn’t. 

Edited November 3, 2025 by the_convergence_zone

[T-Town]

Brrrr. 46 degrees with a high so far of 49.6. Rain total of .18 on the day. November has arrived. 

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Much appreciated! I was doing a little more searching around after I posted that, it turns out the IOD (Indian dipole) is negative now also which further feeds momentum into the midlatitudes because the combo of that and La Niña pushes all the convection over to the east side of the maritime continent where it more readily feeds the jet. So that makes the MJO want to sit in phase 6-ish and increases the likelihood that the initial arctic intrusions will go east of the Rockies.

So honestly it looks a lot like last year to me, I just hope we’re not waiting around for a retrograde for 2/3 of the winter. I don’t know if you can really predict what this stuff is going to do though, sometimes the MJO will keep progressing and other times it doesn’t. 

For me personally, this Fall has been pretty decent, like a B+. Solid wind event, a handful of upscale rain events. October temps finishing below the 1991-2020 mean. And we're barely into November with more such potential systems on the horizon.

I'd like a storm train, and I'd really like a high latitude -PNA block. Even an inversion pattern underneath a strong ridge would bring about interesting localized temp/cloud gradients to peruse in tha' car with a hot cup of coffee early in the day. But anything, please, anything, but southerly split flow with DOA impulses squeezing out hours of drizzle.

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

eyeing 1984-85 and 2001-02 as closest to current state, front loaded winters

Those were both big snow years here. Over 40” in both winters.   But not a lot of arctic air.  Lots of marginal stuff.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

Strong 4-corners High for the next 10 days. 

GEFS Model – 2m Temp Anomaly for CONUS | Tropical Tidbits

[StormchaserChuck1]

Did you guys see the Jamaica aftermath of Cat 5 Melissa?

Hurricane MELISSA Imagery

[MossMan]

33 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Those were both big snow years here. Over 40” in both winters.   But not a lot of arctic air.  Lots of marginal stuff.  

Exactly…Yuck down here. 

[OysterPrintout]

@Tanis LeachAny chance of the presentations of the OMSI Winter Weather Forecast conference getting posted? Always fun reading those.

[Ken in Wood Village]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Ahhh but the ECMWF is holding strong with a sunny, warm weekend ahead.   Very nice timing.

Are you out of town because it looks wet here 🌧