PNW November 2025

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Are you out of town because it looks wet here 🌧

No... at home.    And this weekend is going to be sunny and warm (by November standards).

And it won't be wet for you either.    Probably into the 60s will full sun and some offshore flow (particularly on Sunday).

[MossMan]

Quite the abrupt line looking NW between clear skies and thick clouds. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Quite the abrupt line looking NW between clear skies and thick clouds. 

I was noticing on that on the satellite earlier... distinct clearing line and very little in the way of low clouds over the ocean.

[BLI snowman]

37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Exactly…Yuck down here. 

1984-85 was a good to great winter from Portland-north and one of the last truly cold PNW winters.

End of October had the early Fraser River event with a subfreezing high at BLI and some snow down to the Seattle area .

There was a regional arctic intrusion December 17-20 with a quick hitter overrunning snowstorm on the 20th, with a widespread 3-5" from Portland on up. 

Then there was a major Fraser River event at the end of December with a significant 6"+ snowstorm north of Everett and 1-3" for Seattle. That was followed by weeks and weeks of offshore flow and a record dry January.

January 1985 was basically a 20th century version of last January. Which is to say it was much colder with a very similar 500mb progression.

That block then retrograded and we had a sizable backdoor arctic air mass in early February with multiple waves of snow between the 1st and 9th. 

I think my location had at least 7 separate snow events that winter with 1"+. Pretty stacked by our modern standards. 

[Front Ranger]

53 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1984-85 was a good to great winter from Portland-north and one of the last truly cold PNW winters.

End of October had the early Fraser River event with a subfreezing high at BLI and some snow down to the Seattle area .

There was a regional arctic intrusion December 17-20 with a quick hitter overrunning snowstorm on the 20th, with a widespread 3-5" from Portland on up. 

Then there was a major Fraser River event at the end of December with a significant 6"+ snowstorm north of Everett and 1-3" for Seattle. That was followed by weeks and weeks of offshore flow and a record dry January.

January 1985 was basically a 20th century version of last January. Which is to say it was much colder with a very similar 500mb progression.

That block then retrograded and we had a sizable backdoor arctic air mass in early February with multiple waves of snow between the 1st and 9th. 

I think my location had at least 7 separate snow events that winter with 1"+. Pretty stacked by our modern standards. 

It was an impressively cold winter overall, but didn't feature any months as impressive as Dec 2008, Feb 2019, or Jan 2017. Also no events as memorable for a widespread area as Dec 2021 or Feb 2021. No events in the Portland area as impactful as Feb 2023 or 2014.

If you like lots of little events and dry cold, then yeah, it was the winter for you.

[Ken in Wood Village]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

No... at home.    And this weekend is going to be sunny and warm (by November standards).

And it won't be wet for you either.    Probably into the 60s will full sun and some offshore flow (particularly on Sunday).

Interesting because the 12Z Euro shows this for Saturday and Sunday

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Interesting because the 12Z Euro shows this for Saturday and Sunday

That is incorrect.   Those maps are for Thursday and Friday.   The top map is at 4 p.m. on Thursday and the bottom map is for 4 p.m. on Friday.

00Z Sat is midnight Friday night/Saturday morning Greenwich Mean time (England).   That is 4 p.m. Friday afternoon here because we are now -8 hours from Greenwich Mean time (-7 in the summer months).

If you want to see Saturday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF that is going to be 132 hours at 00Z Sun.   Sunday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF is going to be 156 hours at 00Z Mon,

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I was noticing on that on the satellite earlier... distinct clearing line and very little in the way of low clouds over the ocean.

Noticed that today. Looking NW from the NW corner of Discovery Park, down by the water at the bottom of the stairs on the loop trail

[Meatyorologist]

^^also a smoke plume can be seen in the center of the clearing. my guess is a controlled burn.

[snostorm21]

Todays Euro Extended - 

[Ken in Wood Village]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is incorrect.   Those maps are for Thursday and Friday.   The top map is at 4 p.m. on Thursday and the bottom map is for 4 p.m. on Friday.

00Z Sat is midnight Friday night/Saturday morning Greenwich Mean time (England).   That is 4 p.m. Friday afternoon here because we are now -8 hours from Greenwich Mean time (-7 in the summer months).

If you want to see Saturday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF that is going to be 132 hours at 00Z Sun.   Sunday afternoon on the 12Z ECMWF is going to be 156 hours at 00Z Mon,

I actually have it on the negative GMT time 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

1984-85 was a good to great winter from Portland-north and one of the last truly cold PNW winters.

End of October had the early Fraser River event with a subfreezing high at BLI and some snow down to the Seattle area .

There was a regional arctic intrusion December 17-20 with a quick hitter overrunning snowstorm on the 20th, with a widespread 3-5" from Portland on up. 

Then there was a major Fraser River event at the end of December with a significant 6"+ snowstorm north of Everett and 1-3" for Seattle. That was followed by weeks and weeks of offshore flow and a record dry January.

January 1985 was basically a 20th century version of last January. Which is to say it was much colder with a very similar 500mb progression.

That block then retrograded and we had a sizable backdoor arctic air mass in early February with multiple waves of snow between the 1st and 9th. 

I think my location had at least 7 separate snow events that winter with 1"+. Pretty stacked by our modern standards. 

I don’t remember much from either of those winters…Though I was 8/9yrs old for 84/85…And spent a lot of time drinking with a co worker from the golf course days almost every night during the winter of 2001/02 so that was a hazy winter. 

[TT-SEA]

52 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I actually have it on the negative GMT time 

That is irrelevant... that is just your time zone setting.   I can tell you with 100% certainty your maps were for Thursday and Friday afternoon.

00Z Fri is always Thursday afternoon for us.   00Z Sat is always Friday afternoon for us.    

Do the math on the hours.   Your top map was at 84 hours.   The 12Z ECMWF starts at 4 a.m. today.   So 24 hours is Tuesday 4 a.m. and 48 hours is Wednesday at 4 a.m. and 72 hours is Thursday at 4 a.m. and then 84 hours is 12 hours later which is 4 p.m. on Thursday.    Your second map was for 108 hours.   96 hours is Friday morning at 4 a.m. and 12 hours later is 108 hours which is 4 p.m. Friday.

These are the maps for Saturday and Sunday from the 12Z ECMWF.

Saturday afternoon is 132 hours from this morning.   Sunday afternoon is 156 hours from this morning.   

[Groundhog]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

1984-85 was a good to great winter from Portland-north and one of the last truly cold PNW winters.

End of October had the early Fraser River event with a subfreezing high at BLI and some snow down to the Seattle area .

There was a regional arctic intrusion December 17-20 with a quick hitter overrunning snowstorm on the 20th, with a widespread 3-5" from Portland on up. 

Then there was a major Fraser River event at the end of December with a significant 6"+ snowstorm north of Everett and 1-3" for Seattle. That was followed by weeks and weeks of offshore flow and a record dry January.

January 1985 was basically a 20th century version of last January. Which is to say it was much colder with a very similar 500mb progression.

That block then retrograded and we had a sizable backdoor arctic air mass in early February with multiple waves of snow between the 1st and 9th. 

I think my location had at least 7 separate snow events that winter with 1"+. Pretty stacked by our modern standards. 

That Christmas was the first and last time we took the train to Manitoba to visit my grandparents at their dairy farm. Tracks were splitting it was so cold. I remember the train stopped for a long time in the middle of nowhere as they repaired the track.

[T-Town]

31 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is irrelevant... that is just your time zone setting.   I can tell with 100% certainty your maps were for Thursday and Friday afternoon.

00Z Fri is always Thursday afternoon for us.   00Z Sat is always Friday afternoon for us.    

Do the math on the hours.   Your top map was at 84 hours.   The 12Z ECMWF starts at 4 a.m. today.   So 24 hours is Tuesday 4 a.m. and 48 hours is Wednesday at 4 a.m. and 72 hours is Thursday at 4 a.m. and then 84 hours is 12 hours later which is 4 p.m. on Thursday.    Your second map was for 108 hours.   96 hours is Friday morning at 4 a.m. and 12 hours later is 108 hours which is 4 p.m. Friday.

These are the maps for Saturday and Sunday from the 12Z ECMWF.

Saturday afternoon is 132 hours from this morning.   Sunday afternoon is 156 hours from this morning.   

His maps say right on them they’re for 11/6 and 11/7 at 4 pm Los Angeles time. So he probably got this weekend’s dates mixed up vs needing an elaborate math lesson. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Noticed that today. Looking NW from the NW corner of Discovery Park, down by the water at the bottom of the stairs on the loop trail

I took this picture because of the  pattern in the clouds, but you can see the edge of the clouds to our northwest in the edge of the picture.

 

[TT-SEA]

11 minutes ago, T-Town said:

His maps say right on them they’re for 11/6 and 11/7 at 4 pm Los Angeles time. So he probably got this weekend’s dates mixed up vs needing an elaborate math lesson. 

Not really math... more an explanation of the silly Greenwich time conversions we have to do with weather model maps.   Whenever I send a map to a family member wanting to know about weather on a specific day I always have to explain why the day of the week on the top doesn't match the day they are asking about.   

But I didn't see it does state the day on his map too so you're probably right.  This weekend is 11/8 and 11/9.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds. Gotta figure annual avg snow is like 30-50in? Only better place might be North Bend maybe?

 

Link to property

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds.

 

Link to property

That is a very unique property... pretty cool with incredible views. 

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds.

 

Link to property

Enumclaw is not a bad little town. It’s just a long way from anywhere.  

[SouthHillFrosty]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That is a very unique property... pretty cool with incredible views. 

Oh yea. Nothing comparable around except for pinnacle peak nearby and that's public land.

 

5 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Enumclaw is not a bad little town. It’s just a long way from anywhere.  

My wife's family is from a small town in the south so she loves it out there and wants a horse farm. I could only imagine the traffic trying to go anywhere north. I see realtors advertising "Buckley as a commuter town to Seattle". Zero chance. I use to commute from South Hill to Seattle pre covid and that sucked. 

[iFred]

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds. Gotta figure annual avg snow is like 30-50in? Only better place might be North Bend maybe?

 

Link to property

You'll be on the lee of any of the fun gap winds that rush down the White River and give Buckley and Enumclaw a good windstorm at least once or twice a year, but you'll probably still get some fun stuff. When there are mountain wave events, you're in the zone for eddies caused by Mt Rainier and will get hit when the low moves north. It is pretty weird when no one around the sound is having a real storm but Enumclaw, Buckley, and Bonney Lake are all having a bad day.

Snow wise, it seems anywhere from about Thunder Mountain to South Prairie never gets any fun orthographic lift during cold northwesterlies, convergence zones die out, the gap winds eat your snow totals, and the topography of the White River valley doesn't exactly allow for cold air leakage like they get in Ravensdale.

If this is a snow move, look Black Diamond and north or check out places in around Greenwater.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea. Nothing comparable around except for pinnacle peak nearby and that's public land.

 

My wife's family is from a small town in the south so she loves it out there and wants a horse farm. I could only imagine the traffic trying to go anywhere north. I see realtors advertising "Buckley as a commuter town to Seattle". Zero chance. I use to commute from South Hill to Seattle pre covid and that sucked. 

You don't have Meridian hell and if 410 on Eli is messed up, you can take 164 to Auburn.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

You don't have Meridian hell and if 410 on Eli is messed up, you can take 164 to Auburn.

One of the areas I looked into moving was out in the graham area and south pierce county. Meridian and canyon were big no thank yous from me so I ended up moving on the other side of the bridge instead. 

[T-Town]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Oh yea. Nothing comparable around except for pinnacle peak nearby and that's public land.

 

My wife's family is from a small town in the south so she loves it out there and wants a horse farm. I could only imagine the traffic trying to go anywhere north. I see realtors advertising "Buckley as a commuter town to Seattle". Zero chance. I use to commute from South Hill to Seattle pre covid and that sucked. 

Yeah if you’re commuting to Seattle or the eastside it’s a non starter. 

[SpaceRace22]

25 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds. Gotta figure annual avg snow is like 30-50in? Only better place might be North Bend maybe?

 

Link to property

This is a super cool property. That's a killer view for a sub $700k lot

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Yeah if you’re commuting to Seattle or the eastside it’s a non starter. 

I’ve been on the Sunday rotation at work the last few weeks and have been going up to Seattle, bothell and Bellevue a lot. It’s 1-1.5 hours with no traffic on Sundays. Would probably be 2-3 hours each way for me on a weekday. Even commuting from Tacoma up to Seattle can be a nightmare sometimes. 

[SnowWillarrive]

34 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Man I missed the good convo on micro climates. How does 1650 ft compare to 1k for snow?

I keep looking at this property in Enumclaw. Only issue is that it is Enumclaw  It's also the highest point on a small hill so might not get as much upslope and you have the chinook/east winds. Gotta figure annual avg snow is like 30-50in? Only better place might be North Bend maybe?

 

Link to property

Developing that would cost and an arm and a leg. That elevation can get decent snow though. Speaking from experience Pinnacle peak (which is very nearby) can get decent snowfalls in winter when SL is low. Would not surprise me if that spot averaged 50 inches. 

Honestly doesn’t seem worth the cost and time you would put into it. Cool spot though. 

[SpaceRace22]

I think I found the snowiest plot of land for sale in Washington state. 4,500ft right on the Canadian border in far NE Washington near Metaline Falls, on the north slope of Abercrombie & Hooknose Mountain, which are around 7,300ft.  I feel like you'd be getting buried into May and June in some years here. Too bad it would be literally impossible to access your land in the winter. It's only accessible by a sketchy dirt road that switchbacks along the face of a mountain for 15 miles.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/Nka-Frisco-Standard-Rd-Colville-WA-99114/455598005_zpid/

[T-Town]

2 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I’ve been on the Sunday rotation at work the last few weeks and have been going up to Seattle, bothell and Bellevue a lot. It’s 1-1.5 hours with no traffic on Sundays. Would probably be 2-3 hours each way for me on a weekday. Even commuting from Tacoma up to Seattle can be a nightmare sometimes. 

I lived in Maple Valley and worked in downtown Seattle. I caught the Sounder train in Auburn and it wasn’t too bad but still close to 90 minutes door to door including a ten block walk from King Street station. The only way Tacoma works for me is because I am fully remote. 

[SnowWillarrive]

Now this is worth it. Gold Hill Road is at 5,000 feet  

[Tanis Leach]

4 hours ago, OysterPrintout said:

@Tanis LeachAny chance of the presentations of the OMSI Winter Weather Forecast conference getting posted? Always fun reading those.

https://oregonams.com/2025/10/20/33rd-annual-winter-weather-forecast-conference-video-and-presentations/

 

Mine is better viewed via YouTube:

Predictions only: 

 

 

Technical edition: 

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I lived in Maple Valley and worked in downtown Seattle. I caught the Sounder train in Auburn and it wasn’t too bad but still close to 90 minutes door to door including a ten block walk from King Street station. The only way Tacoma works for me is because I am fully remote. 

My family thinks it’s crazy how much driving I do but even when I lived in Tacoma I was used to it. Drove from Tacoma to snoqualmie every day for a year straight. 
 

 Mostly now I’m commuting to silverdale and the Tacoma area which is roughly 45 minutes to an hour each way. Someday a shorter commute would be nice but I love living out here now. 

[Tanis Leach]

6 hours ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Were those years also weak Ninas?

84-85 was moderate, and 01-02 was neutral

[MossMan]

Here you go. Problem solved. 

[SpaceRace22]

9 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Now this is worth it. 

Ok dang now this is probably the snowiest property for sale in the state actually. Literally ski in/ski out at Crystal. Added bonus would be that you could access it basically year round. Could probably make some killer rental income if you wanted to AirBNB it too.

The Google Street view of the neighborhood is absurd, lol:

[snostorm21]

Its amazing what a different elevation has here. My location is at the base of education hill, 170 feet. It would be raining at my location and a 5 min drive up the hill to about 400 feet and its dumping snow. Frustrating at times, really want to live in 500 plus elevation area.

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

My family thinks it’s crazy how much driving I do but even when I lived in Tacoma I was used to it. Drove from Tacoma to snoqualmie every day for a year straight. 
 

 Mostly now I’m commuting to silverdale and the Tacoma area which is roughly 45 minutes to an hour each way. Someday a shorter commute would be nice but I love living out here now. 

There are always tradeoffs. Sounds like you found a good balance that works for you. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Another good property is here in Monroe

this is around 1400 ft tho 

[SouthHillFrosty]

44 minutes ago, iFred said:

You'll be on the lee of any of the fun gap winds that rush down the White River and give Buckley and Enumclaw a good windstorm at least once or twice a year, but you'll probably still get some fun stuff. When there are mountain wave events, you're in the zone for eddies caused by Mt Rainier and will get hit when the low moves north. It is pretty weird when no one around the sound is having a real storm but Enumclaw, Buckley, and Bonney Lake are all having a bad day.

Snow wise, it seems anywhere from about Thunder Mountain to South Prairie never gets any fun orthographic lift during cold northwesterlies, convergence zones die out, the gap winds eat your snow totals, and the topography of the White River valley doesn't exactly allow for cold air leakage like they get in Ravensdale.

If this is a snow move, look Black Diamond and north or check out places in around Greenwater.

There is a 700 ft difference between this property and palmers elevation. Would Palmer's cold air leakage offset the 700 ft difference in elevation?