Front Ranger's Front Loaded Forecast

[Doom Buster]

Looking at overall indexes (ENSO, QBO, PDO, EPO), these years appear to be the best matches to this year: 2021, 2017, 2007, 2000, 1996, 1984, 1974, 1970, 1962, and 1956. 

A high percentage of these had widespread or significant lowland snow in December, and several had major bouts of Arctic air that month. Some of the older analogs were also very cold in January, but obviously that's been a much tougher nut to crack recently (although baby steps have been made).

Overall, the argument for a front-loaded winter looks about as strong as I've seen in awhile.

 

Here's the preceding November composite for those winters.

[Snownerd3000]

Let's go! 

[Doom Buster]

The warm west/cool east signal for the analog pool for November is certainly playing out so far.

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 11/6/2025 at 12:03 PM, Front Ranger said:

The warm west/cool east signal for the analog pool for November is certainly playing out so far.

 

 

Not anymore 

[Doom Buster]

On 11/22/2025 at 8:13 PM, Anti Marine Layer said:

Not anymore 

Still going to end up with a general warm west/cooler East month.

[Anti Marine Layer]

On 11/24/2025 at 9:42 AM, Front Ranger said:

Still going to end up with a general warm west/cooler East month.

Los Angeles is in a small area of green. We had a very rainy and cold week.

[Doom Buster]

Here's how November finished.

 

Warmest anomalies centered in Mountain West, coolest in the NE. From the analog list above, this is closest to: 2021, 2007, and 1962. 

[ShawniganLake]

On 11/5/2025 at 8:45 PM, Front Ranger said:

Looking at overall indexes (ENSO, QBO, PDO, EPO), these years appear to be the best matches to this year: 2021, 2017, 2007, 2000, 1996, 1984, 1974, 1970, 1962, and 1956. 

A high percentage of these had widespread or significant lowland snow in December, and several had major bouts of Arctic air that month. Some of the older analogs were also very cold in January, but obviously that's been a much tougher nut to crack recently (although baby steps have been made).

Overall, the argument for a front-loaded winter looks about as strong as I've seen in awhile.

 

Here's the preceding November composite for those winters.

Going back and reading this thread is a bit depressing.  

[BLI snowman]

If this is a "front loaded" winter then I can't wait to see what February looks like. PDX's 116 record could be in jeopardy.

[Doom Buster]

20 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

Going back and reading this thread is a bit depressing.  

 

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

If this is a "front loaded" winter then I can't wait to see what February looks like. PDX's 116 record could be in jeopardy.

Yeah, yeah. Where are your guys forecasts on record again?

Also, it's still possible Jan ends up outperforming Feb, which would make this winter more front loaded than most recently.

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

PDX's 116 record could be in jeopardy.

Unlikely to happen in February. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Yeah, yeah. Where are your guys forecasts on record again?

Also, it's still possible Jan ends up outperforming Feb, which would make this winter more front loaded than most recently.

I thought it would be front loaded too.  I was thinking December. I was also wrong.  Feels like Jan 20-Feb 5 is our window right now.   I’m not feeling a big February save this year.  

[Doom Buster]

On 1/10/2026 at 1:00 PM, ShawniganLake said:

I thought it would be front loaded too.  I was thinking December. I was also wrong.  Feels like Jan 20-Feb 5 is our window right now.   I’m not feeling a big February save this year.  

I did mention Juneau was the main focus of this forecast, right?

Front loaded -PNA...