December 2025 Observations and Discussion

Clinton · November 26

Many have seen or about to see a fast start to winter and the prospects of a cold and snowy December for the Sub looks good. Decembers have stunk more times than not over the last 10 years, could this one be different?

The MJO sure looks like it wants to play ball with a phases 7,8,1 being modeled.

A potentially longer LRC cycle of 55-60 days could set the stage for exciting Winter Solstice through Christmas period. Let's discuss!

Naptownwx · November 26

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Many have seen or about to see a fast start to winter and the prospects of a cold and snowy December for the Sub looks good. Decembers have stunk more times than not over the last 10 years, could this one be different?

The MJO sure looks like it wants to play ball with a phases 7,8,1 being modeled.

A potentially longer LRC cycle of 55-60 days could set the stage for exciting Winter Solstice through Christmas period. Let's discuss!

Have not seen a December with this kind of potential in a long time

Sumweatherdude · November 26

KC's early December snow prospects went from great (for a few runs anyway) to nada. I'm not really surprised, but disappointed. Hopefully things turn around for those of us further south.

Clinton · November 26

37 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

KC's early December snow prospects went from great (for a few runs anyway) to nada. I'm not really surprised, but disappointed. Hopefully things turn around for those of us further south.

I think down our way we will need to wait for a phase 8 influence and a more blocked up pattern. I believe we will be in a good place once we get closer to the first day of astronomical winter.

Jayhawker85 · November 26

1 hour ago, Sumweatherdude said:

KC's early December snow prospects went from great (for a few runs anyway) to nada. I'm not really surprised, but disappointed. Hopefully things turn around for those of us further south.

i was never expecting snow to stick this weekend. i think we will see a few flakes for some pretty sightseeing but we will have to wait a couple more weeks for any chances down this far

Clinton · November 26

The models just won't let this system next week completely die. It really gets cranking to the east.

Hoosier · November 26

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The models just won't let this system next week completely die. It really gets cranking to the east.

Definitely keeping an eye on the trends with that one but my main focus for now has been on the weekend system.

Tom · November 27

@Clinton, I’m seeing a signal of growing signs that a west-based Greenland block starting to show up on the ensemble’s. This should help your area later in Week 2.

Black Hole · November 27

By the way, AIFS showing another strat warm around Dec 10th squarely over the pole with a clear PV split reinforcing the lobe of the PV over North America. You can see that reflected at 500 hPa too. This is most beneficial for our northern members, but with cold sitting so close I expect at least dry cold fronts down here at times.

But if we get any amplification, watch out! Could be a big time arctic event when that happens.

Black Hole · November 27

Models are mixing with the Dec 1-2 system, but at the moment most showing at least a skiff of snow with much more to the north towards our KC people. Any snow is good this time of year down here.

MI Storm · November 27

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Models are mixing with the Dec 1-2 system, but at the moment most showing at least a skiff of snow with much more to the north towards our KC people. Any snow is good this time of year down here.

The follow up wave next week that becomes a bogger coastal storm is showing some light snow swinging through on varrying degrees. While the snow chances still dont see great locally here in KC. I like that the long range has been trending colder. I like the period from the 8th or so thorugh Christmas to be interesting. Based on the MJO forecasts.

Black Hole · November 27

Most of the 00z models trended up further, with the UKMET showing 3-4" near me. Most other guidance is Tr-2" but like I said I will take it.

If it doesn't work out, I think it'll remain cold more than not through at least Dec 10, so possibly some additional chances even if they aren't being shown on models yet.

Clinton · November 27

CPC outlooks

Tom · November 27

Long Range guidance is showing me that the mean trough axis will begin to shift more over so over the Eastern CONUS as we head into the middle part of DEC. I expect to see a lot more cold HP anchoring over NW NAMER as we enter Week 2 of DEC and lock which will continue to "seed the cold" into the lower 48. My original call was for the cold to press around the 4th/5th of DEC and it looks to me like that has some merit.

The Euro AI is really building the Arctic Air all across W & NW NAMER in the extended. Now, if we do indeed start to block up near Greenland by the 8th-10th of DEC....Look out Below because I truly think that the MJO heading into Phase 8 during this period based off the EURO/JMA it favors a trough for the majority of our members East of the Rockies. My gut says the models shall start to trend this way for Week 2 in DEC, but especially the start of the Week of the 14th and through the end of the year.

Hoosier · November 27

Don't really like seeing the CFS shifting drier for a large part of the Midwest in December...

james1976 · November 27

GFS has Iowa getting hit again with the mid week clipper.

Clinton · November 27

12z GFS showing a few systems ahead the first is a small system that trys to get going Monday.

Then as James mentioned a refresher for Iowa and the Lakes region.

Tom · November 27

This is exactly what I'm looking for to continue Week 2...trends are the key to get this North American pattern blocked up!!! Perfect trend for more amplification over the Eastern CONUS.

Clinton · November 27

A nice improvement on the GFS for the system early next week.

MI Storm · November 27

KC may grab a couple inches on Monday. Looks like a general 1-3 to put us on the board for the season.

MI Storm · November 27

Just now, Clinton said:

A nice improvement on the GFS for the system early next week.

Models have really been picking up the precip on this the last couple days. Im flying in Monday afternoon. Hopefully to fresh snow cover!

Clinton · November 27

Just now, MI Storm said:

KC may grab a couple inches on Monday. Looks like a general 1-3 to put us on the board for the season.

I'll take that on early December! Looks like our Chiefs are in a shootout today.

Black Hole · November 27

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

A nice improvement on the GFS for the system early next week.

Not for me :lol:

Ensemble consensus suggests something from a few flakes to maybe an inch if I get real lucky. Probably just a dusting.

Clinton · November 27

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Not for me

Ensemble consensus suggests something from a few flakes to maybe an inch if I get real lucky. Probably just a dusting.

We just need it to get its act together sooner and we'd really have something. Trough need to be a little further west I think.

Black Hole · November 27

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We just need it to get its act together sooner and we'd really have something. Trough need to be a little further west I think.

Yes, it seems like the PV lobe to the northeast pulls on it, keeping it positively tilted for too long. If it could break free a bit sooner it would strengthen and become neutral to negatively tilted. I think the northern track over you or just getting going to my east make more sense this go around though.

Clinton · November 28

5 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Not for me

Ensemble consensus suggests something from a few flakes to maybe an inch if I get real lucky. Probably just a dusting.

0z ICON gets ya in on the action. My office mentioning that models may get a better handle on this system after they get the Saturday storm more nailed down.

Andie · November 28

A damp 45 tonight on the Red River.
Warming to 70* Saturday with a 70% chance of rain.

Clinton · November 28

0z GFS for Monday and Tuesday

Tom · November 28

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

0z GFS for Monday and Tuesday

I think this is your 1st winter headline snow system coming right up!

Tom · November 28

I'm keeping an eye on the SW ridge to build the Week of the 14th and this should keep temps AN for the 4 corners region and downstream trough-like pattern. N PAC Jet should be "rippin'" into the PAC NW/N Rockies and I think this will be the part of the "Miller B" storm track and/or Hybrid PAC waves that really deliver some big snows. Gotta see if the -NAO builds and west-based block bc if that does blossom, we will be seeing some big dogs digging in the Plains/MW. I foresee a Golden Opportunity for some incredible storm systems that week heading into the "home stretch" of the Holidays.

Clinton · November 28

50 minutes ago, Tom said:

I think this is your 1st winter headline snow system coming right up!

Models look good so far. I'll take it!

Clinton · November 28

Widespread snow on the GFS for Monday. Iowa may do well again

Hoosier · November 28

Shaping up to be a solid refresher around here.

Black Hole · November 29

Looks like models have mostly settled on a few flurries around here for Monday so kind of a bummer but oh well. I don't really see any promising setups through Dec 10th down my way with several dry cold fronts. Probably going to average below normal.

Black Hole · November 29

Still looking like another strat warm event is possible toward the 10-15th. In this case the AIFS already had a piece of the PV sitting over North America, but the warming acts to reinforce it. I suspect this will keep a cold air in place to our north, ready to be tapped into at some point.

Iceresistance · November 29

Speaking of December, look at what we got right now, an extremely rare November SSW event!

Hoosier · November 29

Are we putting the Dec 1-2 system in a separate thread or should we use the Thanksgiving weekend storm thread for it? Originally that thread was also supposed to include discussion for the beginning of December storm, but nobody's really talking about it there.

Looks like it's likely to produce a swath of several inches.

Clinton · November 29

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Are we putting the Dec 1-2 system in a separate thread or should we use the Thanksgiving weekend storm thread for it? Originally that thread was also supposed to include discussion for the beginning of December storm, but nobody's really talking about it there.

Looks like it's likely to produce a swath of several inches.

Fire one up. It looks like it's gaining consistency.

Hoosier · November 29

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Fire one up. It looks like it's gaining consistency.

Done!

Hoosier · November 29

Can we please lose the drier look for December? Although IF the pattern can stay cold throughout, then drier than average could still work for some areas if most of the precip comes as snow, say in the form of clippers or Pac hybrids. But would def rather see more precip.