PNW Weather Discussion - December to Remember 2025

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 4

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 5

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 6

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS Day 7

4 Run Trend

[Meatyorologist]

Swing and a miss. We're back to where we were 36 hours ago. I don't think we're gonna be seeing anything until Christmastime or the New Year. That STJ just won't stop blowing our blocks away from the bottom up

[DeepFriedEgg]

BITTER air just north of us. Argh. Still might get there

[DeepFriedEgg]

East winds cranking with system moving in from the west

[Snownerd3000]

42 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Swing and a miss. We're back to where we were 36 hours ago. I don't think we're gonna be seeing anything until Christmastime or the New Year. That STJ just won't stop blowing our blocks away from the bottom up

6z has snow hitting W WA by next Sunday/Monday. this week coming up will be telling. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

F*ck it. Get ready for the rug push.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I was looking to see were all the coldest air is and saw this city in Russia. It maybe be 51 below zero but the Dew Point is negative 58 degrees talk about being dry

There is some like cold air in Canada, I hope that comes our way for a visit and brings some wintry precipitation 🌨

[RentonHill]

Just got done putting the kids to bed. What’d I miss

[Ken in Wood Village]

I like the 06Z GFS

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

2 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Swing and a miss. We're back to where we were 36 hours ago. I don't think we're gonna be seeing anything until Christmastime or the New Year. That STJ just won't stop blowing our blocks away from the bottom up

The MJO continues to linger completely dead in the null phase, while slowly creeping towards Indian Ocean phase 1, contrary to model guidance that wanted to take it back out to phase 7 and 8.

The operational models will inevitably flip flop, and I think the GFS will turn back around even better for the 12z. I just don't see the STJ being the main concern, especially with a persistent -EAMT/-AAM that has already developed.

Unless.. do you see something else I'm missing that is feeding into the jet here? I'm not an expert  

[Meatyorologist]

8 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

The MJO continues to linger completely dead in the null phase, while slowly creeping towards Indian Ocean phase 1, contrary to model guidance that wanted to take it back out to phase 7 and 8.

The operational models will inevitably flip flop, and I think the GFS will turn back around even better for the 12z. I just don't see the STJ being the main concern, especially with a persistent -EAMT/-AAM that has already developed.

Unless.. do you see something else I'm missing that is feeding into the jet here? I'm not an expert  

I have no idea. This MJO stuff I only just learned more about in the last couple months. I learn something new here all the time, especially from the longtimers

[the_convergence_zone]

42 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

The MJO continues to linger completely dead in the null phase, while slowly creeping towards Indian Ocean phase 1, contrary to model guidance that wanted to take it back out to phase 7 and 8.

The operational models will inevitably flip flop, and I think the GFS will turn back around even better for the 12z. I just don't see the STJ being the main concern, especially with a persistent -EAMT/-AAM that has already developed.

Unless.. do you see something else I'm missing that is feeding into the jet here? I'm not an expert  

I agree, it looks like essentially a transition to climo by Christmas. Precip is near-normal for the last week of the EPS, temps slightly below normal. 

[Meatyorologist]

06z EPS was a nudge better

[Joshua Lake Oswego]

I will take a freeze at this point. Haven’t been below 36 this season. 

[Jbolin]

6 hours ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah this is stupid. Euro needs to stop at 10 days. 

What in the "Harry Horsesh*t" is this nonsense? 

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

What in the "Harry Horsesh*t" is this nonsense? 

A bad model run…It happens…Might even happen for another day or two. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

GFS still on an island. Rug pull soon.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

In other news. Wet flakes maybe?

[DeepFriedEgg]

22 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS still on an island. Rug pull soon.

Rug isn't even there yet for me. Anything is gravy

[MossMan]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

GFS still on an island. Rug pull soon.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

EPS is somewhat close to GEFS, the OPs have just been wildly different 

[MossMan]

0.00” on the day, 4.48” on the month. 
48 degrees. 
Not sure I ever remember a time where the PNA has forecasted to go negative for a long period of time and not seen any snowfall…But it sounds like this will be the time! 
Still February to look forward to! 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

0.00” on the day, 4.48” on the month. 
48 degrees. 
Not sure I ever remember a time where the PNA has forecasted to go negative for a long period of time and not seen any snowfall…But it sounds like this will be the time! 
Still February to look forward to! 

Our areas probably see some snowfall

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

EPS is somewhat close to GEFS, the OPs have just been wildly different 

I find it better to base my hopes and emotional well being on every single OP runs wild back and forth swings. 

[MV_snow]

9 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Always seems to happen before an arctic blast here. Definitely not because I pay attention to the Euro rollout more closely when we have arctic potential...definitely not

It does seem like this, but how many of us even realize or care when the Euro is delayed in the summer? Maybe Tim when he’s frantically refreshing June 29’s Euro run to see if he’s gonna get a warm and sunny July 4 weekend in North Bend or if he needs to book a trip to Pasco.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

It does seem like this, but how many of us even realize or care when the Euro is delayed in the summer? Maybe Tim when he’s frantically refreshing June 29’s Euro run to see if he’s gonna get a warm and sunny July 4 weekend in North Bend or if he needs to book a trip to Pasco.

 

[ShawniganLake]

The 6Z GFS and AIFS went very similarly off the rails after Christmas.  

[Eugene-5SW]

First freeze of the season here (well, close... 32.2º)

[Timmy]

Little more tilt to the ridge so far on the 12z gfs

[the_convergence_zone]

29 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

It does seem like this, but how many of us even realize or care when the Euro is delayed in the summer? Maybe Tim when he’s frantically refreshing June 29’s Euro run to see if he’s gonna get a warm and sunny July 4 weekend in North Bend or if he needs to book a trip to Pasco.

My #1 wish for weather models would be for the Euro to come out before the GFS. It would cut down on some of the nonsense that happens when a single GFS run goes off the rails. 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[DefeatedEgg]

Ridge retrograding oof

[Timmy]

Just now, DefeatedEgg said:

Ridge retrograding oof

Kind of makes a mess of things, but still interesting. Cold onshore 

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

It does seem like this, but how many of us even realize or care when the Euro is delayed in the summer? Maybe Tim when he’s frantically refreshing June 29’s Euro run to see if he’s gonna get a warm and sunny July 4 weekend in North Bend or if he needs to book a trip to Pasco.

LOL.

I realize the sarcasm here but I do like to remind people that I don't think I have ever set foot in the city of Pasco.  And don't think we have stayed in Richland since before COVID.  But if we were going to have a rainy/gloomy 4th then our first choice would probably be Chelan... wine tasting and water and boating!   For as crazy as people make it sound... the volume of traffic we see I-90 going over the pass on summer weekends tells me that it actually might be very, very common for west siders to go east in the summer?  I am starting to think I am not the first person in our gloomy climate to have this idea.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

We will always have that 18z run.

[RentonHill]

7 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

My #1 wish for weather models would be for the Euro to come out before the GFS. It would cut down on some of the nonsense that happens when a single GFS run goes off the rails. 

 

This is your worst take

[The Swamp]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

LOL.

I realize the sarcasm here but I do like to remind people that I don't think I have ever set foot in the city of Pasco.  And don't think we have stayed in Richland since before COVID.  But if we were going to have a rainy/gloomy 4th then our first choice would probably be Chelan... wine tasting and water and boating!   For as crazy as people make it sound... the volume of traffic we see I-90 going over the pass on summer weekends tells me that it actually might be very, very common for west siders to go east in the summer?  I am starting to think I am not the first person in our gloomy climate to have this idea.  

Oh Tim. Simmer down.  People are just giving you some sheit. :)