PNW Weather Discussion - December to Remember 2025

[Slushy Inch]

End of the run looking good too. Cold air racing south. Ridge back building.

[Edmonds Husky]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

End of the run looking good too. Cold air racing south. Ridge back building.

Now this is what we wanna see on the EURO. Let’s hope it keeps showing good patterns

[Phishy Wx]

right on schedule it appears per MJO transitions, and/or push down of recent PV disruption

[Front Ranger]

55 minutes ago, iFred said:

MBG?

Unfortunate that they seem to specialize in "good" weather...

[Phishy Wx]

I'm guessing a pretty big warm up, wash out type situation just before the switch flip

[Edmonds Husky]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

I'm guessing a pretty big warm up, wash out type situation just before the switch flip

I wonder how common this really is before a big blast. I know December 2021 was mild and zonal before that event

[snostorm21]

I want this to actually happen this winter. 

[Edmonds Husky]

1 minute ago, snostorm21 said:

I want this to actually happen this winter. 

Then we shall manifest it into existence.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

I wonder how common this really is before a big blast. I know December 2021 was mild and zonal before that event

A big AK vortex will almost always create a fairly active baroclinic zone over us. Whether that translates to a jet retraction and favorable blocking down the road to dislodge that just depends, but teleconnections wise when it's troughy up there it's almost a certainty that it's active down here during the winter months. 

[Phishy Wx]

well shiit, so wrapped up in the long term I missed what's under my nose

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

51 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Something big is brewing…I can taste it!

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is the coldest frame the EC has. Still not showing a freeze IMBY for the entire forecast period. Historically awful season. Like Las Vegas Raiders status.

[ShawniganLake]

I think if I took the Euro and AIFS and put on my extrapolation shoes, I could get the pattern into a pretty good place in time for the holiday season.   

[the_convergence_zone]

23 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Then we shall manifest it into existence.

We need a witch reaction  

[WestCoastWX]

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at some point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

[Eugene-5SW]

14 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is the coldest frame the EC has. Still not showing a freeze IMBY for the entire forecast period. Historically awful season. Like Las Vegas Raiders status.

No worries, bro. The manifesters got you covered.

Of course, they manifested us into a November that was record warm across much of the West with only 50-60% of normal precipitation in Oregon and almost no mountain snow, but hey, maybe they just need more practice.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, WestCoastWX said:

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at some point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

For a first post on here, this is good stuff. Welcome! 

[snostorm21]

4 minutes ago, WestCoastWX said:

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at some point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

New member or someone lost their acct??

[Phishy Wx]

32, DP 26

hopefully we get a little

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

30 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

This is the coldest frame the EC has. Still not showing a freeze IMBY for the entire forecast period. Historically awful season. Like Las Vegas Raiders status.

Modern Willamette Valley winter = mid-20th century Sacramento Valley winter with more clouds and an ice storm thrown in

[RentonHill]

23 minutes ago, WestCoastWX said:

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at som e point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

[Thunder98]

3 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Good old Jesse? 

[SouthHillFrosty]

32 minutes ago, WestCoastWX said:

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at some point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

[High Desert Mat!]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I’d say Jim but he didn’t say solidly enough. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

What a turd month. 

[MossMan]

7 minutes ago, High Desert Mat! said:

I’d say Jim but he didn’t say solidly enough. 

And no CFS talk so it can’t be Andrew. 
 

Phil’s prison identity login? 

[snostorm21]

50 minutes ago, WestCoastWX said:

Late Dec looks good as the mjo attempts to reset into the Indian Ocean or weakens in phase 8. So long as the westerlies and the kelvin wave over the eq pac takes a bit of a break late Dec, an there’s enuf La Niña left to help keep the convection further west of the date line could allow the pattern that the weeklies are wanting to come to fruition. If not, then prob delayed to early mid Jan, but it should come for a bit at some point between Christmas week and mid Jan for a bit. 

The more I read this, the more it sounds like Phil.

[ShawniganLake]

17 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Wonder what their IP address says.  I was thinking perhaps a former Canadian poster.  “Westcoastexpat”

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

The more I read this, the more it sounds like Phil.

That was my second thought.   
 

We need to know!

[Slushy Inch]

57 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

New member or someone lost their acct??

There is someone on X with the same account name 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

14 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

The more I read this, the more it sounds like Phil.

Not enough acronyms to be Phil.  

[snostorm21]

7 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

There is someone on X with the same account name 

That makes me wonder, are people like Scott sistek, Michael Snyder, Justin Shaw(kseattleweather) on this forum??

I actually got to know about this forum through one the tweets I saw from the kseattleweather account so he's probably on here.

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And no CFS talk so it can’t be Andrew. 
 

Phil’s prison identity login? 

One lower case acronym? Not my Phil!

[Front Ranger]

I know the focus yesterday was on what the Euro was spitting out for 8 days out, but wow, this is what it's showing today for just 3 days out. Record-breaking or close in some spots if it verifies.

[Phishy Wx]

-sn

32, DP 27

[snostorm21]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I know the focus yesterday was on what the Euro was spitting out for 8 days out, but wow, this is what it's showing today for just 3 days out. Record-breaking or close in some spots if it verifies.

need a #westtrend

[SouthHillFrosty]

You know it’s bad when this is the forecast for December in Cle Elum 

[Edmonds Husky]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

You know it’s bad when this is the forecast for December in Cle Elum 

Might as well be the forecast for Seattle 

[Phishy Wx]

lol

 

 

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Try this maybe??

 

1. Wetterzentrale (Best for Visualizing the "Run")

 

This German site has a massive archive that lets you view the initialization (analysis) and the forecast steps for historical dates.

• Website: www.wetterzentrale.de

• How to find it:

  1. Go to the menu and look for "Archive" or "Reanalysis".

  2. Select "NCEP GFS Archive" (for the American model) or "ECMWF ERA5" (for the European reanalysis).

  3. For the GFS: You can select the specific Year (2008), Month (December), and Day (1).

  4. Crucial Step: You can select the "Run" (e.g., 00Z, 06Z, 12Z, 18Z).

  5. Once the map loads, you can click the "timestep" buttons (+6, +12, +24, etc.) to see what that specific model run predicted for the future.

 

2. Meteociel (Best for Raw Data & Global Views)

 

This French site is excellent for seeing the specific 500mb patterns (the ridges and troughs) and temperature anomalies for historical dates.

• Website: www.meteociel.fr

• How to find it:

  1. Look for "Archives" in the left sidebar.

  2. Select "Archives NCEP / NOAA" (for GFS) or "Archives ERA5" (for ECMWF).

  3. Enter the date: 01-12-2008.

  4. You can toggle between "Hemisphère Nord" (Northern Hemisphere) or "USA" to get the view relevant to Spokane.

  5. Tip: Look for the "z500 + 850hPa Temp" charts to see the jet stream pattern and cold air masses.

 

 

Two things, the response here is for initializations which a full run does not make, and if you are doing this at work then how the hell are you still employed?