PNW Weather Discussion - December to Remember 2025

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

It rained very heavily here when it passed through.  Didn’t last long though.  

[ShawniganLake]

32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

We can safely ignore the GEM. I don't have the stats, but it has to have the worst verification scores this season. 

Worse than the GFS?  It’s usually pretty similar in skill scores, perhaps a bit better in the 5-6 day range.  I’m pretty sure the GEPS used to be better than the GEFS, not sure if that’s still the case.  

[Gradient Keeper]

[Edmonds Husky]

10 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

Lets get that to UNLOAD itself into the PNW.

It’s gonna COME. 

[backyardtrains]

27 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

I got some hail/rain combination just now for about 2 minutes and now rain... Heard the distinct "tink, tink" as I was walking to pick up kids from school. Walk home in the rain now.

[Slushy Inch]

AI

[Edmonds Husky]

3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

AI

Two in a row!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Worse than the GFS?  It’s usually pretty similar in skill scores, perhaps a bit better in the 5-6 day range.  I’m pretty sure the GEPS used to be better than the GEFS, not sure if that’s still the case.  

Ignoring the GFS is a given. 

[bainbridgekid]

Positive splat test here in Mountlake Terrace! Massive drops and at least a third of them were partly wet snow. 

 

Temp was 43 at the time so I'm pretty impressed. One hell of a squall line moving through the North Sound.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

AI looks good again at the end. Lets see if all the models catch on. Next weekend would be the timeframe.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Edmonds Husky]

So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, backyardtrains said:

I got some hail/rain combination just now for about 2 minutes and now rain... Heard the distinct "tink, tink" as I was walking to pick up kids from school. Walk home in the rain now.

Some ice mixed in helps explain the bright radar echoes.   

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

Pretty good agreement on possibly some chilly temps starting around the 13th. Maybe it will escalate or be a warning shot before something more serious.

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

Definite improvement for GEFS, too.

 

[Edmonds Husky]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Definite improvement for GEFS, too.

 

Seems like it’s stuck on hour 264

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

Confidence is certainly increasing in the models for a mid to late December event. This was the timeline being discussed for a while now.

[Meatyorologist]

58 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

Bright banding. Mixed precip reflects radar echoes better, giving falsely enhanced scans like a severe squall line that isn't really there.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

Confidence is certainly increasing in the models for a mid to late December event. This was the timeline being discussed for a while now.

A hybrid of 1990, 1996, 1998, 2008, 2017, 2021, and 2022 all wrapped up into one that will completely bury all of us causing a massive disruption to travel for pre Christmas, Christmas, and New Years…Going to be the best holiday season ever! 

[Edmonds Husky]

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

A hybrid of 1990, 1996, 1998, 2008, 2017, 2021, and 2022 all wrapped up into one that will completely bury all of us causing a massive disruption to travel for pre Christmas, Christmas, and New Years…Going to be the best holiday season ever! 

Let’s manifest this.

[Edmonds Husky]

[backyardtrains]

52 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Some ice mixed in helps explain the bright radar echoes.   

It was so small I couldn't grab one to figure out if it was hail or graupel. Then it stopped just as fast as it started. So sad. I was hoping for at least fake snow. 

[Phishy Wx]

that shortwave is hauling asss across the state.  round 2 should be here by 7 or 8pm.  ground is now covered and frozen so hopefully all of it sticks in this round.

[SpaceRace22]

Now that it appears all of the other models are getting ready to flip in our favor, wouldn't it be funny if the GFS were again the outlier, but this time it ends up being the one exception where it's right?

[Snownerd3000]

I welcome this lol

[Edmonds Husky]

12 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Now that it appears all of the other models are getting ready to flip in our favor, wouldn't it be funny if the GFS were again the outlier, but this time it ends up being the one exception where it's right?

Please don’t be right.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

2 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Please don’t be right.

It's usual GFS behavior. Sniff it out first then be in denial while others models show it. Then it goes cuckoo again and show 10 feet of snow for the region down to LA once it realizes it's gonna get cold. Then we get a watered down cold event with some snow 

[MossMan]

A raw 39 degrees currently.

.21” so far on the day. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

[Edmonds Husky]

7 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

It's usual GFS behavior. Sniff it out first then be in denial while others models show it. Then it goes cuckoo again and show 10 feet of snow for the region down to LA once it realizes it's gonna get cold. Then we get a watered down cold event with some snow 

I hope that the “watered down” event we get will not be like the last few events. January 2024 was all cold but no snow, February 2025 had quite a bit of precip but not much deep cold

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

[Edmonds Husky]

Just now, MossMan said:

[Phishy Wx]

10 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

who told you?

[Phishy Wx]

might charge the batteries and stage the snow blower for our additional 1-2" coming in tonight.  I wanta enact my inter mossman

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

AI GEFS

 

AI GFS

Graphcast hour 240

 

 

[MikeInEverett]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

AI GEFS

 

AI GFS

Graphcast hour 240

 

 

No1ProjectEAGLEFan

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

And the weeklies, every image a 5 day running average.  FWIW I'm as skeptical as anyone.  And I would be happy for normal weather for my backyard, since normal for me is pretty snowy.  Would be happy for everyone else to get snow too.

 

[crf450ish]

5 hours ago, iFred said:

Two things, the response here is for initializations which a full run does not make, and if you are doing this at work then how the hell are you still employed?

The trick is to be employed somewhere where your employer needs you more than you need them. To achieve this, simply remain debt free, do an absolutely amazing job at your job, and have a positive attitude. Once you have this leverage, simply don't abuse it. Easy.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

5 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

 

The 8-14 day outlook looks like its inevitable. And the 3 to 4 week outlook was issued Friday, not today, so hopefully the one that comes in this Friday will be different.  Also, FWIW, the previous 3 to 4 week outlook was calling for below-normal temps.  So they are pretty useless.