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PNW Weather Discussion - December to Remember 2025

Edmonds Husky
in West of the Rockies

Featured Replies

15 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

It rained very heavily here when it passed through.  Didn’t last long though.  

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    32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

    We can safely ignore the GEM. I don't have the stats, but it has to have the worst verification scores this season. 

    Worse than the GFS?  It’s usually pretty similar in skill scores, perhaps a bit better in the 5-6 day range.  I’m pretty sure the GEPS used to be better than the GEFS, not sure if that’s still the case.  

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    10 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

    Lets get that to UNLOAD itself into the PNW.

    It’s gonna COME. 

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    27 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

    What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

    I got some hail/rain combination just now for about 2 minutes and now rain... Heard the distinct "tink, tink" as I was walking to pick up kids from school. Walk home in the rain now.

    Location: Port Orchard, WA

    Model Train fun

     

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    AI

    496A04BC-8856-4ABB-A1AE-085C0955CFAE.png

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    3 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

    AI

    496A04BC-8856-4ABB-A1AE-085C0955CFAE.png

    Two in a row!

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

    Worse than the GFS?  It’s usually pretty similar in skill scores, perhaps a bit better in the 5-6 day range.  I’m pretty sure the GEPS used to be better than the GEFS, not sure if that’s still the case.  

    Ignoring the GFS is a given. 

    PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

    2025-2026 Snow Total: 2.5” (5 snowfalls)

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    Positive splat test here in Mountlake Terrace! Massive drops and at least a third of them were partly wet snow. 

     

    Temp was 43 at the time so I'm pretty impressed. One hell of a squall line moving through the North Sound.

    Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

    Seasonal Average: 12.75"

    2025-26: 0.5"

    2024-25: 10.5"

    2023-24: 6"

    2022-23: 17.5"

    2021-22: 17.75"

    2020-21: 14.5”

    2019-20: 10.5"

    2018-19: 24.75"

     

     

     

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    So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    8 minutes ago, backyardtrains said:

    I got some hail/rain combination just now for about 2 minutes and now rain... Heard the distinct "tink, tink" as I was walking to pick up kids from school. Walk home in the rain now.

    Some ice mixed in helps explain the bright radar echoes.   

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    3 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

    So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

    Pretty good agreement on possibly some chilly temps starting around the 13th. Maybe it will escalate or be a warning shot before something more serious.

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    11 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

    So far the GEFS and the EPS look quite similar

    Definite improvement for GEFS, too.

    gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.thumb.png.2ae0e5edfc96de2be657435005b8d5bd.png

     

    O the snow, the beautiful snow!
    Filling the sky and the earth below!
    Over the house-tops, over the street,
    Over the heads of the people you meet,
    Dancing, Flirting, Skimming along.
    Beautiful snow! it can do nothing wrong.

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    4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

    Definite improvement for GEFS, too.

    gfs-ens_z500a_namer_45.thumb.png.2ae0e5edfc96de2be657435005b8d5bd.png

     

    Seems like it’s stuck on hour 264

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    Confidence is certainly increasing in the models for a mid to late December event. This was the timeline being discussed for a while now.

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    58 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

    What is even going on with radar right now, that looks like a strong front.

    Bright banding. Mixed precip reflects radar echoes better, giving falsely enhanced scans like a severe squall line that isn't really there.

    Weather stats for MBY

    Snowfall:

    -Total snowfall since joining: 56.25"

    -- Lake City, Seattle (LC) --

    -2018-19: 21"

    -2019-20: 2.5"

    -2020-21: 13"

    -2021-22: 8.75"

    -2022-23: 5.75"

    -2023-24: 0.25"

    -2024-25: 4.75"

    -- Ballard, Seattle (B) --

    -2025-26: 0.25"

    -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; March 13th, 2026 (B)

    -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 (LC)

    -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 (LC)

    Temperatures:

    -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 (LC)

    -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 (LC)

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    4 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

    Confidence is certainly increasing in the models for a mid to late December event. This was the timeline being discussed for a while now.

    A hybrid of 1990, 1996, 1998, 2008, 2017, 2021, and 2022 all wrapped up into one that will completely bury all of us causing a massive disruption to travel for pre Christmas, Christmas, and New Years…Going to be the best holiday season ever! 

    Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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    2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

    A hybrid of 1990, 1996, 1998, 2008, 2017, 2021, and 2022 all wrapped up into one that will completely bury all of us causing a massive disruption to travel for pre Christmas, Christmas, and New Years…Going to be the best holiday season ever! 

    Let’s manifest this.

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    IMG_7618.jpeg

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    52 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

    Some ice mixed in helps explain the bright radar echoes.   

    It was so small I couldn't grab one to figure out if it was hail or graupel. Then it stopped just as fast as it started. So sad. I was hoping for at least fake snow. 

    Location: Port Orchard, WA

    Model Train fun

     

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    that shortwave is hauling asss across the state.  round 2 should be here by 7 or 8pm.  ground is now covered and frozen so hopefully all of it sticks in this round.

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    Now that it appears all of the other models are getting ready to flip in our favor, wouldn't it be funny if the GFS were again the outlier, but this time it ends up being the one exception where it's right?

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    I welcome this lol

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    12 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

    Now that it appears all of the other models are getting ready to flip in our favor, wouldn't it be funny if the GFS were again the outlier, but this time it ends up being the one exception where it's right?

    Please don’t be right.

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    2 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

    Please don’t be right.

    It's usual GFS behavior. Sniff it out first then be in denial while others models show it. Then it goes cuckoo again and show 10 feet of snow for the region down to LA once it realizes it's gonna get cold. Then we get a watered down cold event with some snow 

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    A raw 39 degrees currently.

    .21” so far on the day. 

    Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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    Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

    2026-2027 cold season stats 

    Coldest max-60

    Coldest min-41

     

                           

     

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    7 minutes ago, SeattleWeatherFan said:

    It's usual GFS behavior. Sniff it out first then be in denial while others models show it. Then it goes cuckoo again and show 10 feet of snow for the region down to LA once it realizes it's gonna get cold. Then we get a watered down cold event with some snow 

    I hope that the “watered down” event we get will not be like the last few events. January 2024 was all cold but no snow, February 2025 had quite a bit of precip but not much deep cold

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    9 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

    Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

    image.gif.8df4fa8242c01bc93128966fb96f63e0.gif

    Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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    Just now, MossMan said:

    image.gif.8df4fa8242c01bc93128966fb96f63e0.gif

    Lets Go Start GIF

    2026 Warm Season Stats (4/1 - 10/31)

    Warmest high - 6/14 (89 F)

    Coldest low - 4/4 (41 F)

    Days 80 F or above: 5

    Days 90 F or above: 0

     

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    10 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

    Overheard something about major ensemble improvements. 

    who told you?

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    might charge the batteries and stage the snow blower for our additional 1-2" coming in tonight.  I wanta enact my inter mossman

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    AI GEFS

    image.png.69a24f0834ccf68501f85583c7a71e10.png

     

    AI GFS

    image.png.9f3e5c5714168d78217918131d6d7161.png

    Graphcast hour 240

    image.png.deb43915c5159b237611c9d027a200d7.png

     

     

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    3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

    AI GEFS

    image.png.69a24f0834ccf68501f85583c7a71e10.png

     

    AI GFS

    image.png.9f3e5c5714168d78217918131d6d7161.png

    Graphcast hour 240

    image.png.deb43915c5159b237611c9d027a200d7.png

     

     

    No1ProjectEAGLEFan

    (Previous name: MillCreekMike, MikeInGraniteFalls)

    Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

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    And the weeklies, every image a 5 day running average.  FWIW I'm as skeptical as anyone.  And I would be happy for normal weather for my backyard, since normal for me is pretty snowy.  Would be happy for everyone else to get snow too.

     

    14-km EPS 46-DAYS North America 5-day Avg 500Z Anom (1).gif

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    5 hours ago, iFred said:

    Two things, the response here is for initializations which a full run does not make, and if you are doing this at work then how the hell are you still employed?

    The trick is to be employed somewhere where your employer needs you more than you need them. To achieve this, simply remain debt free, do an absolutely amazing job at your job, and have a positive attitude. Once you have this leverage, simply don't abuse it. Easy.

    Remember - you have free will. Unless you're in prison, you don't have to live somewhere that doesn't fulfill your meteorological needs.

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    5 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

     

    WK34temp.gif

    814temp.new.gif

    The 8-14 day outlook looks like its inevitable. And the 3 to 4 week outlook was issued Friday, not today, so hopefully the one that comes in this Friday will be different.  Also, FWIW, the previous 3 to 4 week outlook was calling for below-normal temps.  So they are pretty useless.

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