December 6-7 Snow Storm

[bud2380]

Virtually all models are now showing a system moving through Saturday into Sunday in the plains and midwest and to a lesser extent into the Great Lakes.  

12z GFS

 

00z Euro is one of the stronger solutions. 

[Hoosier]

GFS and other models are starting to pick up on the idea of this system not crapping out quite as quickly as it heads east, though it is still weakening with time. 

[hawkstwelve]

12z vs 00z ECMWF...

[BojiMom]

21 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z vs 00z ECMWF...

Look at that. For once, we might actually get significant snow when no college kid needs to go anywhere? Bring it. :) 

[Hawkeye]

Bigger 12z Euro graphic.  This would be quite a surprise add to the forecast.  This is best-case for my area, so it'll probably end up at least somewhat less.

[bud2380]

31 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Bigger 12z Euro graphic.  This would be quite a surprise add to the forecast.  This is best-case for my area, so it'll probably end up at least somewhat less.

That is D**n near perfect for us.  

[hawkstwelve]

What's kind of funny is this system has the potential to reach or even exceed the snow we received from the past weekend storm but this one is much quieter - I see very little hype on local FB groups and pages. NWS hasn't even bit yet, just mentioning a potential for snow.

This could turn out to be quite the sleeper hit.

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

What's kind of funny is this system has the potential to reach or even exceed the snow we received from the past weekend storm but this one is much quieter - I see very little hype on local FB groups and pages. NWS hasn't even bit yet, just mentioning a potential for snow.

This could turn out to be quite the sleeper hit.

This is kind of a chaotic pattern with all these frequent disturbances.  Some that look good at a distance may fade, while others may trend better.  At least many of us look to get multiple shots.

[hawkstwelve]

NBM has been slowly inching totals up over the past few runs. 18z is overall about 1.5" more than the 12z run for most locations.

As this blend starts to catch on I would imagine the NWS will follow suit as this is often mentioned by them in their AFDs.

[hawkstwelve]

Trends on past three runs of NAM...

[hawkstwelve]

18z 3km NAM looking a bit juiced up here. 3" more than the 12z run by Saturday evening.

[Hoosier]

Although it's a bit unclear exactly how it will set up, there is a little bit of a lake signal somewhere around here.  All in all, definitely think I could pull 2 or 3 inches out of this.  

[bud2380]

I'm afraid for my area that I'm going to be on the southern edge of this, so any shift north is going to leave me with low snow totals.  Right now in Iowa I think Highway 20 (again) is the sweet spot.  Just like last storm.  We shall see.  The Euro gives me hope, but even a 30 mile shift north would have significant impacts for my area.  

[hawkstwelve]

Last three runs of the RRFS. The more northern, lighter edge of this around the Twin Cities falls tomorrow.

[hawkstwelve]

Last three runs of the RDPS. Remains among the more northern solutions.

[hawkstwelve]

And last three runs of the ICON.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS seemingly fairly locked in now. Just some minor changes overall over the past three runs, but pretty consistent for the western portion of this system.

[bud2380]

GFS with a shift north.

 

[bud2380]

I'm curious if the NWS will issue a Winter Storm Watch.  I suspect they will as this is fairly quick hitting and at least in some areas meets the standard of 6" in 12 hours.  But only if they believe these higher totals.  DVN is once again being very stingy on snow totals, just like they did with the last storm before finally upping them the day before the storm hit.  If they are going to issue a watch I would suspect it will be tomorrow morning or possibly wait until Friday afternoon if there is still uncertainty.  

[GDR]

[hlcater]

The ensemble means bode well for E IA.

 

[bud2380]

18z UK

[Clinton]

18z Euro and EPS 

[Niko]

NOAA: 

The next chances for light snow will be Friday night and Sunday.
  Sunday holds a 50% chance to exceed 1 inch. 

Temperatures may rebound to the low-mid 30s for daytime highs
Saturday with drier conditions Saturday evening. The passing cold
front will send temperatures back down into the 20s for highs on
Sunday for bulk of the area. Another wave tracking across the Great
Lakes on Sunday bringing the next chance for accumulating snowfall.
The renewed colder airmass will bring high confidence in an all snow
p-type. Trends have been increasing for snow accumulation with
latest probability guidance for achieving 1 inch over 12 hours up
toward 50 percent in parts of southeast Michigan. Overall totals for
this event should stay on the light side as moisture depth is still
limited. High pressure keeps conditions largely quiet during the
early week as below average temperatures persist. Active weather
pattern holds into mid-week that brings more accumulating snowfall
potential.

From no snow Sunday, now there is a chance for snow.  Should be an interesting scenario for my neck of the woods.

[hawkstwelve]

HRRRRR only goes out to 6pm Saturday but it's looking pretty close to all the other models. Decent agreement for 48 hours out, unlike the weekend storm.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z NAMs are a similar track, but a little weaker.

[jcwxguy]

[jcwxguy]

[hawkstwelve]

00z RDPS and ICON looking juiced up here.

[Hawkeye]

00z RRFS

[Grizzcoat]

HRW FV3-

[jcwxguy]

[Grizzcoat]

GFS-

[Grizzcoat]

DSM almost certain? to pass last years pathetic winter snow total of 14.3" before Dec 7th. 

Currently at 11.3"

[jcwxguy]

Too late in the game to ask for a 50-75 mile shift west

[OttumwaSnomow]

Just now, Grizzcoat said:

DSM almost certain to pass last years pathetic winter snow total of 14.3" before Dec 7th. 

I had 17.6"  here last winter.  5.3" so far this season here near Ottumwa.

[Grizzcoat]

CMC-

 

[Grizzcoat]

Long range RAP fwiw (still snowing E.IA)

[Grizzcoat]

GEFS-

[Grizzcoat]

UKIE-