January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

[Niko]

Buckle up!! January is looking like more southern storms will be in-play, rather than NW flows, at least till mid month and maybe even beyond. Very strong blocking up in Greenland will allow for huge potential for big time storm systems to develop in the south. Now, who gets hit or miss remains to be seen. Lastly, alotta cold air will be around for most, so lets get to it and start discussing the fun times ahead. 

[Minny_Weather]

Definitely gonna be entering a clipper pattern. Just hope I can get a couple with decent moisture.

[ChiTownSnow]

Let's just hope we don't go clipper to death ridge again.  

Per the GFS the 5th thru 10th looks like a more active storm track

Longer twem-   looks like the ensembles are in alignment on the blocking pattern setting up to hopefully keep the cold in place.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Anyone know how the weeklies looked?

[StormchaserChuck1]

20 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Anyone know how the weeklies looked?

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202511070000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202511170000

ECMWF | Charts

[jaster220]

Why not?

[Black Hole]

The mid month period we've been watching is starting to come into view for the medium range guidance. This is an ideal trough position for snow chances in the Plains. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

26 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The mid month period we've been watching is starting to come into view for the medium range guidance. This is an ideal trough position for snow chances in the Plains. 

Euro was looking decent too

[Black Hole]

1 minute ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Euro was looking decent too

All the medium range guidance at least hinting at this for the ensemble means. I imagine if this is for real we should see a more consistent signal appear soon. 

[Clinton]

CMC showing a storm over the Southern Plains on the 7th.  Hopefully this storm will trend further north as we go along. The timing does seem about right and cold air is in place for KC and @Black HolewI'll want to watch this.

Euro AI ensemble mean

 

[Sumweatherdude]

Some hope at the end of the runs for those of us down here in no man’s land.  Let’s hope they produce, and also that the pattern remains stormier instead of reverting right back to what it has been for those of us in the central and southern plains.   

[Tom]

The Golden Rule for a Midwest/OHV storm track is the location of the Greenland Block.  The signature part of the LRC pattern has been for a West-Based Greenland Block to grow and expand west and south towards Hudson Bay.  As we open up the New Year of 2026, like clockwork and right on schedule, it is wonderful to see the Beauty of the Block up Top do the work its intended to do for Winter Wx Enthusiasts!

Buckle up folks...I'm super stoked that many on here will reel in the benefits of the cold and snow that is going to fill up the Lower 48 next month.

As we reel in the New Year, a familiar 500mb pattern that delivered the Big Snow in late NOV is showing up in Week 2.  Before then, however, take a gander at the formation of the Stout West Based -NAO.  

 

The period between the 8th-16th is one to watch for systems to dig into the 4 corners and eject out into the TX & OK Panhandle and cut somewhere into the S MW and through the OHV.  I will say, the pattern looks very favorable for @Iceresistance @Black Holeand our KC peeps and @Clintonto reel in some opportunities during this period.  We will see enough cold air seeded into the pattern and produce winter storms.

The placement of the High Lat blocking and -PNA will allow for storms to cut instead of tracking along the East Coast.  I like the look of the -EPO and Split Flow that was also an Exhibit to the LRC.

Is the Canadien on top of its game again???  It's showcasing exactly what I am expecting to transpire during this period.  This has Huge potential for spinning up some Big Dogs...the mid month period is one to really watch for as the North American pattern really amplifies and unleashes the Real deal Arctic Air into the Lower 48.  Let's see nature lay down another widespread canopy of White Gold over the SUB!!

 

 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Late January and February are gonna f***** rock. 

[tStacsh]

I count 5 weak clippers on basically every model up until the Jan. 10th.  Then maybe a pattern change?   Yeesh.   snooze fest.   

[Tom]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

I count 5 weak clippers on basically every model up until the Jan. 10th.  Then maybe a pattern change?   Yeesh.   snooze fest.   

Geeze man, your hard to please!  Honest question, would you rather have another week of 50's and melt the snow you have now???  Do you not enjoy seeing snow OTG during the heart of winter???  It appears to me all you want are big dogs (which is rare) and maybe some Lake Effect snow that stacks up a FOOT or more...which is rare for your location anyway.  I would be very happy to have an extended outlook that had multiple chances of snow and temps in the 20's.

[MMike]

10 minutes ago, Tom said:

Geeze man, your hard to please!  Honest question, would you rather have another week of 50's and melt the snow you have now???  Do you not enjoy seeing snow OTG during the heart of winter???  It appears to me all you want are big dogs (which is rare) and maybe some Lake Effect snow that stacks up a FOOT or more...which is rare for your location anyway.  I would be very happy to have an extended outlook that had multiple chances of snow and temps in the 20's.

No kidding!!!! I have had 4 drops of rain and a few snow showers since Dec. 1st. That’s a real snooze fest! And it appears I’m going to go another 10 days+ without out anything. Snooze fest ++++ here in KC

[Sumweatherdude]

10 minutes ago, MMike said:

No kidding!!!! I have had 4 drops of rain and a few snow showers since Dec. 1st. That’s a real snooze fest! And it appears I’m going to go another 10 days+ without out anything. Snooze fest ++++ here in KC

But the GFS is predicting a snowstorm out past hour 300!   You know it baby.  

[tStacsh]

15 minutes ago, Tom said:

Geeze man, your hard to please!  Honest question, would you rather have another week of 50's and melt the snow you have now???  Do you not enjoy seeing snow OTG during the heart of winter???  It appears to me all you want are big dogs (which is rare) and maybe some Lake Effect snow that stacks up a FOOT or more...which is rare for your location anyway.  I would be very happy to have an extended outlook that had multiple chances of snow and temps in the 20's.

I miss the days of consistent 3-6 inchers.  These low moisture nickel and dimers are boring for us West Michigan folk.     But I do want  big storms.    And yes, I'm very hard to please.    I'm not grateful at all for Michigan winters.   If I was in an actual Snow Belt I'd be happier more in Winter.   But without a long duration set up and decent W or WSW wind, I'm not in a "good" Lake effect area, though I do benefit.    

If it doesn't snow, its constantly cloudy and cool/cold.   The clouds on this side of the lake depress ALOT of people, including myself.  Probably why I'm always negative and down on this forum in the winter.    And the constant NW flow this winter is brutal.     

Point is, even if there isn't something decent to track, at least other people in the forum get to see the Sun every once in awhile.   It's nonexistent here. 

So for me, it's big storms, but doesn't have to be a big dog.  As stated above, we used to get some weak LP's that produce a 3-6" swath every once in awhile.   Everything else is just a nuisance.   

 

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

Geeze man, your hard to please!  Honest question, would you rather have another week of 50's and melt the snow you have now???  Do you not enjoy seeing snow OTG during the heart of winter???  It appears to me all you want are big dogs (which is rare) and maybe some Lake Effect snow that stacks up a FOOT or more...which is rare for your location anyway.  I would be very happy to have an extended outlook that had multiple chances of snow and temps in the 20's.

I kind of get where both of you are coming from.  I wish we were immediately going into the wetter southwest flow pattern with bigger snow prospects, but that is not the case.  The northwest flow pattern with periodic smaller snow chances is not ideal for me, but at least the ground is getting covered again.

[hawkstwelve]

47 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I count 5 weak clippers on basically every model up until the Jan. 10th.  Then maybe a pattern change?   Yeesh.   snooze fest.   

And here I am wishing those parade of northern clippers would come just a bit further south so I could get it on the action.

I would be more than happy with periodic light snow chances over the next 10 days. As it stands now, looks like I'll have to wait until close to mid-month to have a shot at anything, light or otherwise. If you don't want the northern clippers, I'll take them!

[tStacsh]

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

And here I am wishing those parade of northern clippers would come just a bit further south so I could get it on the action.

I would be more than happy with periodic light snow chances over the next 10 days. As it stands now, looks like I'll have to wait until close to mid-month to have a shot at anything, light or otherwise. If you don't want the northern clippers, I'll take them!

I get it,   I'm clearly different for living in Michigan than a lot in the plains and midwest.  And get more snow than many, but   If I lived outside of the Lake Belts/Michigan, It wouldn't be anywhere north of Alabama.   No offense lol.   Give me an epic winter, or give me year round Late Spring/Early Summer.      

[Niko]

44 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I miss the days of consistent 3-6 inchers.  These low moisture nickel and dimers are boring for us West Michigan folk.     But I do want  big storms.    And yes, I'm very hard to please.    I'm not grateful at all for Michigan winters.   If I was in an actual Snow Belt I'd be happier more in Winter.   But without a long duration set up and decent W or WSW wind, I'm not in a "good" Lake effect area, though I do benefit.    

If it doesn't snow, its constantly cloudy and cool/cold.   The clouds on this side of the lake depress ALOT of people, including myself.  Probably why I'm always negative and down on this forum in the winter.    And the constant NW flow this winter is brutal.     

Point is, even if there isn't something decent to track, at least other people in the forum get to see the Sun every once in awhile.   It's nonexistent here. 

So for me, it's big storms, but doesn't have to be a big dog.  As stated above, we used to get some weak LP's that produce a 3-6" swath every once in awhile.   Everything else is just a nuisance.   

 

This can easily affect a persons mood. I have a friend who was suffering the same deal w you and had to take counseling for a period of time.

What you might need to consider is maybe moving somewhere else in Michigan where more sun is available. They say that if where you are makes you not happy, then, its time to "Move." Think about it. 

Btw: its pouring snow here atm! 

[hawkstwelve]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

This can easily affect a persons mood. I have a friend who was suffering the same deal w you and had to take counseling for a period of time.

What you might need to consider is maybe moving somewhere else in Michigan where more sun is available. They say that if where you are makes you not happy, then, its time to "Move." Think about it. 

Btw: its pouring snow here atm! 

I can attest to the cloudiness affecting the mood too. It seems like the PNW is endlessly cloudy 9 months out of the year. By the time we would get into the heart of winter it seriously gets depressing seeing nothing but gray skies for days on end. Now living somewhere that has significantly more sunshine, my whole family has been able to tell the difference. There is something about waking up to blue, sunny skies that just helps the mood for the day. 

[tStacsh]

24 minutes ago, Niko said:

This can easily affect a persons mood. I have a friend who was suffering the same deal w you and had to take counseling for a period of time.

What you might need to consider is maybe moving somewhere else in Michigan where more sun is available. They say that if where you are makes you not happy, then, its time to "Move." Think about it. 

Btw: its pouring snow here atm! 

I joined a gym again this winter, so hoping that will help a bit.   Once we get into later January, we get more daylight and usually the sun peeks out a little more.   Of course when the lake freezes up some it generates more sunshine.    I'll take 10 and sunny over 30 and cloudy any day.   

[Niko]

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I can attest to the cloudiness affecting the mood too. It seems like the PNW is endlessly cloudy 9 months out of the year. By the time we would get into the heart of winter it seriously gets depressing seeing nothing but gray skies for days on end. Now living somewhere that has significantly more sunshine, my whole family has been able to tell the difference. There is something about waking up to blue, sunny skies that just helps the mood for the day. 

Absolutely. Many people experience a noticeable lift in their mood when it's sunny compared to cloudy weather, which can  influence daily activities like going to the gym.I.e., when its cloudy, I have no mood to go to the gym., whereas if it is sunny, I am all for it.

 

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

I joined a gym again this winter, so hoping that will help a bit.   Once we get into later January, we get more daylight and usually the sun peeks out a little more.   Of course when the lake freezes up some it generates more sunshine.    I'll take 10 and sunny over 30 and cloudy any day.   

Excellent choice. 

[jaster220]

He (@Stacsh) ain't wrong. For 2-3 months (NDJ) almost every weather pattern delivers cloudiness here in The MItt. Worse on the west side due to the lake effect. Only a strong HP sitting right on top of us gives bright sunshine. My mother hated it and couldn't move to Florida fast enough after retirement. In '71 her and my older sister took a road trip to visit a neighbor couple who had recently retired down to Lakeland. They said on the return trip is sunshine all the way until they hit the Michigan state line.

Growing up in the super snowy decades it was normal and since I liked snow and winter I just dealt with it. Didn't hear about "SAD" until much later in life but can see how that's a real thing too. I'm sure my mother suffered from that.

[mlgamer]

Topeka Fun Facts: Post-December Snowfall Edition!

Topeka snowfall fortunes have changed after modest or meager Decembers in some cases so a more favorable pattern change is always possible!

This December will (almost certainly) finish at 4.7". Recent examples of similar or other interesting Decembers:

• Dec 2011 (0.1") - Rest of winter 11-12 (38.5"!) (1st inch of snow for the season did not fall until Jan 10!)
• Dec 2012 (5.4") - Rest of winter 12-13 (24.2") (much of this fell in Feb-Mar)
• Dec 2013 (4.3") - Rest of winter 13-14 (23.1") (much of this also fell in Feb-Mar)
• Dec 2019 (4.7") - Rest of winter 19-20 (5.2") (Yikes! Dec 2019 exactly matches this December - not a good sign )

So no reason to throw in the towel just yet down here anyway! 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Today's Euro weeklies are looking cold for the week of Jan 19-26:

[ChiTownSnow]

3 hours ago, Sumweatherdude said:

But the GFS is predicting a snowstorm out past hour 300!   You know it baby.  

We're all here to predict, forecast and learn .

It's perfectly acceptable to think that it's going to be warm and dry instead of cold and snowy. But tell us why you think that? so we can understand and see other viewpoints based on what you see.. If it's just a hunch then it's just a hunch and that's okay too.

[Sumweatherdude]

22 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

We're all here to predict, forecast and learn .

It's perfectly acceptable to think that it's going to be warm and dry instead of cold and snowy. But tell us why you think that? so we can understand and see other viewpoints based on what you see.. If it's just a hunch then it's just a hunch and that's okay too.

I lived in Chicago from 2000-2011 BTW. 

I was just being snarky and sarcastic. I'm certainly not one to ask what it's going to be like in three weeks.  But living in KC, you have to be skeptical of any snow forecast that's more than about an hour in the future.  So that was just my skepticism showing through regarding a storm showing up on the GFS for KC out past 300 hours.  

[westMJim]

Well I came on here to post the latest CPC long range guess so I will do that.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/

8 to 14 day guess

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/index.php

If the CPC is right the next two weeks look to be on the warmer then average side.

[Sumweatherdude]

These two pictures don't seem to go together.  But the GFS has them matching up. Seems like there should be a lot more cold in the west and midwest/plains.

 

[ChiTownSnow]

33 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

These two pictures don't seem to go together.  But the GFS has them matching up. Seems like there should be a lot more cold in the west and midwest/plains.

 

Ha.. was literally just looking at that. Typically though, the heights don't translate to the surface temperatures until a few days after, so I would assume if you extend the range out a bit you would see  it crash. But again this is in la la land and 380 some hours away

Edit.. Even though it's in La La Land, there are unusually strong signals this far out from different models depicting something like this happening

And if you believe the CMC it starts to happen much earlier 

 

[Clinton]

GEFS starting to color up for days 7-14.

Total run

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

The start of an arctic pattern if it verifies

[Clinton]

KC peeps could dream a little after seeing the 6z GFS.  There is good ensemble support, (especially given the range) for a couple of storms from January 8th-12th.  This would be related to the weather we experienced on October 25th-29th. Kansas and Missouri did quite well with moisture during that time.

 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

KC peeps could dream a little after seeing the 6z GFS.  There is good ensemble support, (especially given the range) for a couple of storms from January 8th-12th.  This would be related to the weather we experienced on October 25th-29th. Kansas and Missouri did quite well with moisture during that time.

 

Yup, this is the BEST signal thus far for the period of the 8th-16th....let's see some better agreement over the next week of "model watching" during the New Year holiday.

[jaster220]

26 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yup, this is the BEST signal thus far for the period of the 8th-16th....let's see some better agreement over the next week of "model watching" during the New Year holiday.

This could be Chicago's "window". Been waiting for the October action to re-appear.

[Clinton]

The GFS and Euro keep the MJO in the null phase however the JMA has been creeping out towards phase 8 around the 5th. I don't really have a feel on where the MJO will go but I have seen the JMA win these before.