20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

This could be Chicago's "window". Been waiting for the October action to re-appear.

You and me both lol.  This is a dry pattern for me with only a couple of wet stretches.  I need to cash in when the rare opportunities come along. 

Ensembles universally agree that chances for snow should start to increase for FSD after 1/7 or so.

Nothing too crazy yet but nice to see regardless.

The jury is still way out on where it will land, but global models are flashing a pretty intense CO low storm system around 1/9 right now.

I think someone in here is going to see something in that timeframe. Even if it is a Nor'easter or a rainstorm in Nebraska.

I believe models are having a real hard time digesting that huge blocking up in Greenland, but eventually they will start seeing it. Big southern storm potential development in the 8-11th timeframe for the Midwest, lower Gl's  region. 

1 hour ago, Minny_Weather said:

The jury is still way out on where it will land, but global models are flashing a pretty intense CO low storm system around 1/9 right now.

I think someone in here is going to see something in that timeframe. Even if it is a Nor'easter or a rainstorm in Nebraska.

Cue up the whining from the NE peeps

4 minutes ago, Cfweather said:

Cue up the whining from the NE peeps

Sorry getting fuked consecutive winters has us jaded. After this winter my 5 year average will fall to around 13 inches even if we get our 25-30 inch average. 

 

But yea we complain too much. 

12z GFS is a middle finger to Nebraska. 

 

 

Just now, SE Nebraska wx said:

12z GFS is a middle finger to Nebraska. 

L or R? I presume its a miss to your SE? That's the concern I have that this will end up S and E.

1 hour ago, Niko said:

I believe models are having a real hard time digesting that huge blocking up in Greenland, but eventually they will start seeing it. Big southern storm potential development in the 8-11th timeframe for the Midwest, lower Gl's  region. 

One can only hope, right? Meanwhile, at work in Grayling and flakes continue to fly via NW flow LES. We didn't get it as bad here with this storm as the first iteration back in November, but certainly old man winter has taken a nice step to restoring the pre-thaw conditions. 

11 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

12z GFS is a middle finger to Nebraska. 

 

 

Imma take the under on 53" in Arkansas.

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

One can only hope, right? Meanwhile, at work in Grayling and flakes continue to fly via NW flow LES. We didn't get it as bad here with this storm as the first iteration back in November, but certainly old man winter has taken a nice step to restoring the pre-thaw conditions. 

I feel really excited about the upcoming pattern. It has been awhile since we have encountered a southern system. 

lol at the CFS.  A million runs prior are wet and now the last couple want to go dry for a good part of the Midwest.  I don't necessarily buy this depiction, but we have seen extended quiet periods in much of the US so who knows for sure.

 

10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Imma take the under on 53" in Arkansas.

Most of that is sleet and mix 

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Imma take the under on 53" in Arkansas.

This made me chuckle out loud.  Thanks. 

4 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Most of that is sleet and mix 

I think another New Madrid quake would be about the only thing that could cause more societal misery/disruption than this.

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I think another New Madrid quake would be about the only thing that could cause more societal misery/disruption than this.

Gotta love clown range

40 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

L or R? I presume its a miss to your SE? That's the concern I have that this will end up S and E.

I just want an average winter for once. This used to be a fun hobby. 

4 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

I just want an average winter for once. This used to be a fun hobby. 

If all you get from this hobby is misery, why do you put yourself through it?

20 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

If all you get from this hobby is misery, why do you put yourself through it?

For me . . . hope and the occasional excitement when something finally does happen.  Also, it's kind of an addiction.

12z ECMWF has both systems but keep them mostly as rain. Meanwhile, the 12z GEFS is picking up on both tracks a bit better.

Obviously still lots to iron out but definitely the next time period to watch.

Lock it in now:

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

If all you get from this hobby is misery, why do you put yourself through it?

Put a montage of bad snow maps behind him and it'll be complete 

 

 

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Lock it in now:

LOL - IF that were to happen we'd be putting this two week period along side the famed Jan/Feb '78 for multiple Big Dog storms in a row. 

Clippers coming in a little wetter for Michigan.   Nothing crazy but scored a long duration advisory for the 2 said clippers.  Seems weird to issue an advisory for 2-4 inches of snow until Thursday morning.   I think the second one could blow fresh snow around, so probably the reason in the second row of counties and not just the lakeshore.  

 

 

 

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

LOL - IF that were to happen we'd be putting this two week period along side the famed Jan/Feb '78 for multiple Big Dog storms in a row. 

Thermal profile shows the ground temperature above or right at freezing for a lot of the time it's precipitating.  

2 hours ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Thermal profile shows the ground temperature above or right at freezing for a lot of the time it's precipitating.  

Its just one LR run. Could totally vanish, or could slowly improve. Verbatim its a big storm just in coverage crazy big. Nothing that big or deep will be white rain. Not in MI anyways.

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Clippers coming in a little wetter for Michigan.   Nothing crazy but scored a long duration advisory for the 2 said clippers.  Seems weird to issue an advisory for 2-4 inches of snow until Thursday morning.   I think the second one could blow fresh snow around, so probably the reason in the second row of counties and not just the lakeshore.  

 

 

 

I don't think Grayling went 12 hrs between WSWarnings. When NMI gets on a roll it can be pretty wild. Looks like NOH belts are going to be the biggest winners!

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Big fatties flying over the past hour or so and some nice looking returns upstream in S WISCO.  Might do a little better than 1" as was forecasted.  It's nice to see the snow flying and accumulating on cold winters day.  Ahh, now this is a delightful winter scene watching from inside a cozy warm home!

 

We might be in a good spot for tomorrow.  We could be dealing with marginal temps, but areas farther southwest are even more likely to be dealing with marginal temps.

Pretty good agreement now on overall pattern coming together for the time frame discussed.  GFS has been signaling some GL cutters but starting out with marginal temps.

Already noticing a strong signal for what could end up being a major storm system around the Jan 10-12 timeframe. It does indeed look like a big cutter.

GFS was fun. Other models not quite this excited but the potential is there right around Jan 10. 

I'll take one helping of the 06z GFS please. 

Big Flip in the CFSv2 for JAN wrt to the -NAO block and the re-alignment of the North American 500mb pattern.

 

 

Not sure if I buy the dryness where the LRC's primary storm track will run up the S MW/OHV...

Temp Trends...you can see the "Corridor of Cold" the model has trended towards right through the Lakes into the East Coast.  I find this to warm given the stout NE PAC ridge signal.  Let's just say the model is Correct with the idea of a massive -NAO block and a Big ridge in the NE PAC.  There is no way its this warm for the center of the nation.  Let's look back in 4 weeks.

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

GFS was fun. Other models not quite this excited but the potential is there right around Jan 10. 

What a map

So, I just want to make sure. Next week it looks like there will be flow out of the NW across Lake Superior, and that should be good for Lake Effect Snow, right? Thinking of a 3 day trip and doing Snow River, Big Powderhorn, and Whitecap.

Yesterday's ECMWF weeklies showed a retrograding pattern from mid-January through the end of the month. If this is correct, the fun may start out over the Lakes and NE in a NW flow type pattern but it should shift into the Plains and W CONUS as the longwave trough moves westward. Not sure how much SW flow we would get with this given the broad ridging it shows over the southern CONUS.

That said, the pattern so far this season has shown a propensity to cutoff shortwaves over CA and when those eject through the central CONUS they could bring some interesting weather outside the general trough, as we're seeing by the potential upcoming system(s) around the 8th-10th. At the very least the weeklies aren't showing a stagnant, boring pattern for January. 

It appears very likely now, that the period between the 8th-16th is shaping up to be (In my Opinion) ONE (of many more) highlight periods of Winter Storm tracking during the heart of Winter.  This is what I've been patiently waiting for, aside from tracking the GL's Bomb last weekend, my instincts are telling me that there will be a couple big storms during this period.  Given the magnitude of blocking setting up prior to this period and the SW Flow that is taking shape, I believe we will be phasing the Northern JET and STJ to produce Big opportunities for "Share the Wealth" systems.  

My early Call is for a lead storm to around the 8th-10th to cut towards the W GL's region and lays down snows in the Upper MW/W Plains @hawkstwelve @Minny_Weather...post storm, this will usher in the real deal Arctic Air bottled up in Canada and the amplification begins across North America.

 

Who's ready to see the signature part of the LRC?  This is where a Hot Spot exhibit developed earlier this year that sent systems into the TX/OK PanHandle region.  What excites me about the post Jan 10th period is the vast amount of cold air that storms will tap into and cut up towards the S MW/OHV.  IMHO, there is a good potential to see a Big Dog spin up around the 11th - 13th digging deep into the S Plains and then cutting up somewhere towards the Lower Lakes/OHV.  The slight -PNA signal is a big player in terms of storm track through our SUB, esp the eastern and southern members as the EPO tanks and high lat blocking sets up.

 

It looks like we will get all the teleconnections rowing in the same direction after the 10th and bring down some potentially major cold lasting through the end of the month. 

The control run of the Weeklies has been bullish on the cold and snow for over a week and shows this for the 23rd. PV dumping cold I to the central US. 

Snowfall 

 

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It looks like we will get all the teleconnections rowing in the same direction after the 10th and bring down some potentially major cold lasting through the end of the month. 

The control run of the Weeklies has been bullish on the cold and snow for over a week and shows this for the 23rd. PV dumping cold I to the central US. 

Snowfall 

 

This is generally the idea I am coming up with in regards to my post above...the S MW/OHV and places north are going to have some fun for sure!

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

This is generally the idea I am coming up with in regards to my post above...the S MW/OHV and places north are going to have some fun for sure!

How long are ya going to be in Chicago? Chicago should be in play for at least 1 of these mid month storms.