January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

How long are ya going to be in Chicago? Chicago should be in play for at least 1 of these mid month storms.

I have a flight booked for the 7th, however, I’m really considering extending my stay but I have to figure stuff out with work and other plans.   

[Sumweatherdude]

Well . . . things are certainly looking better for KC to have several chances to miss some snow storms (I kid, sort of).  Seriously, though, at least the pattern actually looks to be changing so that some of us down "south" will get in on some action.  Hopefully KC can score.  

[MMike]

I don’t know everyone, this pattern has been garbage for KC for months now, struggling to get good rains, still in a D1 drought, and just about as boring as things can be. BUT….it’s super early and we have 80 days of winter left, so….lets getting something going. Thanks for all the long range updates, I appreciate them. 
 

Happy New Year Everyone! Party time is coming this evening!!! Let’s go 2026

[tStacsh]

Currently looks like a big warm cutter, but might be needed to get the pattern going afterwards.  

[Tom]

@jaster220looks like your in the game for another refressher...

[Sumweatherdude]

Well, the 12z GFS was pretty lame for a lot of us.  Michigan gets its lake effect and a good chunk of Wisconsin scores.  KC, of course, gets nothing.  The waiting and hoping continues for KC.   

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

It will never rain in the desert of Houston, TX ever again!! There is no team El Niño!!    

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

How long do you think it will take in years or decades for sand dunes to replace the clay soils of South East Texas??

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

@jaster220looks like your in the game for another refressher...

Euro-AI has a decent hit as well - thx. Dumping pretty good here attm as well. How's it your way?

Final day of December rally:

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

Looks like just 10% of average rainfall for next 16 days.  I expect it to be cut to zero once we get closer in forecast.

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Euro-AI has a decent hit as well - thx. Dumping pretty good here attm as well. How's it your way?

Nothing yet, but will be in the next few hours...

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Currently looks like a big warm cutter, but might be needed to get the pattern going afterwards.  

Sun/Monday storm was supposed to be that, remember? Then it trended better and I barely got above freezing and a backside hit. Ideal scenario is first wave is N, but not too strong, then the second wave meets up with an arctic HP just like you posted with yesterday's 12z Euro-AI run. Speaking of which, apparently that model has a thing for 989 mb SLP's near Detroit. I got confused for a minute LOL. 1st map is our recent storm, 2nd one is your post.

Ofc storm 1 didn't really take that exact path so storm 2 prolly won't either - just interesting is all.

[Hoosier]

New CPC outlook for January has been released.

 

Here's how it compares to the January outlook that was issued earlier in the month.  So essentially, they lost confidence in the wet signal for the Lakes/Ohio Valley.  But they gained confidence in a colder outcome for a good part of the northern US.

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Sun/Monday storm was supposed to be that, remember? Then it trended better and I barely got above freezing and a backside hit. Ideal scenario is first wave is N, but not too strong, then the second wave meets up with an arctic HP just like you posted with yesterday's 12z Euro-AI run. Speaking of which, apparently that model has a thing for 989 mb SLP's near Detroit. I got confused for a minute LOL. 1st map is our recent storm, 2nd one is your post.

Ofc storm 1 didn't really take that exact path so storm 2 prolly won't either - just interesting is all.

Yeah.  Just following run to run trends.   It’s either gonna be several pieces or a big cutter somewhere.   Where it cuts I have no clue.   But before the late November storm the models had like 3 waves but then consolidated into 1.  This probably will as well.   Range of 1000 miles right now

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

Looks like just 10% of average rainfall for next 16 days.  I expect it to be cut to zero once we get closer in forecast.

Do we have the Texas version of SE Nebraska WX on our hands???

[Minny_Weather]

It's amazing how quick I've gone from "please let GFS verify" to "please don't let GFS verify". I am not going to accept a January rain storm.

Euro, on the other hand, looks great!

[jaster220]

Be interesting to see if this holds at least up here. 

[jaster220]

CPC nodding to the signal - just hoping it can come SE a tad.

[hawkstwelve]

Just a meager 35 inches for FSD on the 00z GFS, which includes 17 inches in 6 hours.

[SE Nebraska wx]

GFS is a garbage model. 

[clintbeed1993]

26 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

GFS is a garbage model. 

Yeah it's not to be trusted.  EURO looks like garbage with basically zero precip in the central plains over the next 2 weeks. I think we are screwed until the end of the month into February 

[westMJim]

Happy New Year!!!

We now have started a new month and a new year. Today I will look at some weather records and history for January.

At Grand Rapids the average mean temperature for January is 24.8° That is up from the 1981-2010 mean average temperature of 24.4° The average precipitation is 2.52” the average snowfall is 22.6” The daily average H/L starts out at 32/21 on the 1^st reaches its coldest of 30/17 on the 24^th and is up to 31/17 on the 31^st  The top 5 coldest Januarys at Grand Rapids are 11.8° in 1912, 12.5 in 1918, 12.7 in 1977, 14.5 in 1994 and 15.8 in 1963 in the last 25 years only 2009 with a mean of 17.5 and 2014 with a mean of 18.1 where in the top 20. The top 5 warmest are 34.2° in 1932, 34.0 in 1933, 33.2 in 2006, 32.0 in 1990 and 31.7 in 2023 last year the mean was 22.2. The wettest top 5 are 4.67” in 2005, 4.62” in 2024, 4.42 in 1895, 4.36 in 1975 and 4.30 in 2006. The dryest top 5 are 0.29” in 1956, 0.30 in 1919, 0.35 in 1945, 0.40 in 1902 and 0.47 in 1981 last year there was 1.02” The top 5 snowiest were 46.8” in 1999, 45.5 in 1997, 45.5 in 1979, 45.0 in 1918 and 44.2 in 2014. The top 5 least snowy were 0.8” in 1933, 1.2” in 1921, 1.4” in 1934, 3.2” in 1932 and 3.3” in 1944.  Last year there was 21.0” of snowfall. The most snow on the ground is 27” in 1978, 23” in 1979, 22” in 1918, 20”in 1899 and 1910 there was 18” on the ground in 2014. Over the years there have been 30 years when all 31 days had at lest one inch of snow on the ground the latest 5 January’s to do so are 2022, 2014, 2001, 1994 and 1985. In 1945 and 1933 there were no days with 1” or more on the ground for a very brown January 1934 had 1 day 1932 had 2 day and 1983 had 3 such days. Last year January had 30 days with at lest one inch on the ground.  Its now time to sit back and see how January 2026 plays out.

KEY MESSAGES

COUPLE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK

WE WILL SEE FLURRIES NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND THEN SOME  
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES THROUGH, BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH AS   
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING QUICKLY FOLLOWS OVERNIGHT.   
  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND CLIPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND COULD BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW  
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THE LOW  
CENTER TRACKS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS SHOULD  
BE LIGHT, SOME UNTREATED ROADS COULD BE SLIPPERY FOR THE MONDAY  
MORNING COMMUTE.

Some weather history for January 1^st 1999  A major blizzard struck portions of the Midwest on January 1-3, 1999. The storm produced 22 inches of snow in Chicago and was rated by the NWS as the second worst blizzard of the 20th century, ranking behind the blizzard in January 1967. Estimates of losses and recovery costs are between $0.3 and $0.4 billion with 73 dead as a result of the blizzard. (NCDC)

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 27/14 there was 1.7” of new snow fall and there is now 4” on the ground. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the W.  For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 56 was in 1897 the coldest high of 13 was in 1968 the record low of -15 was in 1964 and 1968. The warmest low of 40 was in 1950. The wettest was 0.65” of snow, sleet and freezing rain in 1985 the most snow fall of 5.7” was in 1995 the most on the ground was 12” in 2001.

 

[jaster220]

Happy 2026! 

I hear my neighbor shoveling so we must've gotten a bit more LES overnight to start the year off right. Day 37 straight of snow cover.

[jaster220]

Last 6 runs of the reg Euro have trended solid for a quick hitting clipper wave early Monday morning:

[jaster220]

GEM's always a tease this winter. Here it is saying "there's a chance" once again.

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Last 6 runs of the reg Euro have trended solid for a quick hitting clipper wave early Monday morning:

The hits keep comin'!  Boy, its panning out to be one hellova ride for the N GL"s and Eastern Lakes this season.  

[james1976]

Happy 2026!

Woke up to moderate snow coming down and 6°. This is the 3rd day in a row with a clipper moving through. First two each only dropped about half inch but also a light glaze of ice. This current one is all snow. This one looks to be at least an inch. Nice way to close out 2025 and open 2026!

[cmillz]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

New CPC outlook for January has been released.

 

Here's how it compares to the January outlook that was issued earlier in the month.  So essentially, they lost confidence in the wet signal for the Lakes/Ohio Valley.  But they gained confidence in a colder outcome for a good part of the northern US.

yeah, that's not happening.

[gimmesnow]

Oh, it looks like we're back to "just wait one more week and Winter will return" for the next 6 weeks.

[cmillz]

5 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

Oh, it looks like we're back to "just wait one more week and Winter will return" for the next 6 weeks.

yup, back to our regularly scheduled programming after we lose the lingering effects of the November SSWE.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Oh look heat rash, I mean cmillz is back

[Tom]

Looks like the last in a series of clippers/waves is about to track a bit farther South into N IL today and might give us some Bonus Light Snow for Chicago.  I'm ok with it and will welcome some Mood flakes in the daytime.  Welcome to  2026 and a Happy New Year to everyone on this Forum!

[MI Storm]

Still seems like an up and down pattern. Still no real consensus. Happy new year!

[Niko]

Happy New Year!

January 2026 arrived w a nice snowpack and bitter cold temps. Started out in the mid single digits and now warmed to a balmy 13F. Not getting outta the teens for highs. Having people over later today as I am hosting again. This time only family. Alotta food, mostly Greek food. 

[hawkstwelve]

FWIW, the 00z Spire looked similar to what the GFS has been showing. And although the ECMWF AIFS OP hasn't really jumped onboard, it's ensemble suite has a handful of members that depict a similar solution which shows up in the mean. Meanwhile, the 12z GFS is sticking to its guns just waffling around on the placement.

[james1976]

MSP has received 23.8" of snow so far this season. That is 4.7" above average. Let's keep it rolling.

[jaster220]

I think Algorithms/AI/Big Brother (call it whatever you want) tracking me got its wires crossed up a bit. Yesterday, I was helping my wife on her laptop which has dual language toggle (ENG/RUS she uses mostly Russian) and bought something using my Paypal account. I'll occasionally get a sales feed for something she shopped for on her computer, but this is #krazy. Prolly get a knock on my front door from the FBI thinking I'm "hacking the NWS Server".

I've had this laptop since early 2022 and only ever used English just to be clear. 

 

[hawkstwelve]

12z ECMWF AIFS still has the system but it's much further south than the GFS and keeps it mostly all rain.

We're about 180 hours out. I wonder which model will knotch the win in their belt? Unfortunately for the GFS, it's own AI model doesn't even agree with it and aligns much more closely with the AIFS.

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, cmillz said:

yeah, that's not happening.

The only way it'll be possible is if we get big cold in the second half of January.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Happy New Year!

January 2026 arrived w a nice snowpack and bitter cold temps. Started out in the mid single digits and now warmed to a balmy 13F. Not getting outta the teens for highs. Having people over later today as I am hosting again. This time only family. Alotta food, mostly Greek food. 

Gladwin to my east doesn't avg much more snow than Macomb. Here's what I consider starting off a new year right: