January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

[Tom]

The models are starting to do what happened time and time again back in the 1st LRC cycle which was to slow the ejection of the Southwest Trough.  I remember this vividly bc I was experiencing it back in AZ.  The tanking -EPO was a culprit and what may be happening now is for more blocking up Top could eventually be to much suppression and driving the cold troughs into the Baja/N Mexico. The + signal is the continuation of the blocking near Greenland that will help press some colder HP's far enough south to seed some cold and brew up snow storms.

Both the GEFS/GEPS are doing the same thing and backing the trough farther west during Week 2 and the -PNA signal blossoms.

 

 

 

 

 

[SE Nebraska wx]

31 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The only way it'll be possible is if we get big cold in the second half of January.

The AIFIS has been all over the place. If it goes cold cmillz will vanish again. 

[cmillz]

10 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

The AIFIS has been all over the place. If it goes cold cmillz will vanish again. 

It’s actually been remarkable consistent and is by far the best performing model, wiping the floor with global weather models (which are also warm too). It sniffed out the late Dec torch early and it ended up verifying well, so I’m not sure what your deal is or why you feel compelled to make stuff up. The Jan 4-10 period at the very least will be solidly above average.

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 minute ago, cmillz said:

It’s actually been remarkable consistent and is by far the best performing model, wiping the floors with global weather models (which are also warm too). It sniffed out the late Dec torch early and it ended up verifying well, so I’m not sure what your deal is or why you feel compelled to make stuff up. The Jan 4-10 period at the very least will be solidly above average.

It had me at near 70 today. Still stuck at 31. But yes its been remarkably consistent and best performing. 

[MI Storm]

Going to be talking big time drougt out here if pretty soon. Euro goes back to the NW flow pattern in the long range. 

[cmillz]

2 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

It had me at near 70 today. Still stuck at 31. But yes its been remarkably consistent and best performing. 

Here are the verification scores: 

 

[MI Storm]

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

12z ECMWF AIFS still has the system but it's much further south than the GFS and keeps it mostly all rain.

We're about 180 hours out. I wonder which model will knotch the win in their belt? Unfortunately for the GFS, it's own AI model doesn't even agree with it and aligns much more closely with the AIFS.

I'd take it even if it's rain. 

[cmillz]

^Also take note of how piss poor a model the GFS is, it may as well be completely defunct at this point.

[SE Nebraska wx]

2 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Going to be talking big time drougt out here if pretty soon. Euro goes back to the NW flow pattern in the long range. 

Been in a drought since 2021. Need the Nina streak to break

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, cmillz said:

It’s actually been remarkable consistent and is by far the best performing model, wiping the floor with global weather models (which are also warm too). It sniffed out the late Dec torch early and it ended up verifying well, so I’m not sure what your deal is or why you feel compelled to make stuff up. The Jan 4-10 period at the very least will be solidly above average.

It's gotten some general themes right, even though it can be off on the specifics.  The infamous run that had 70s in Moline for Christmas didn't pan out, but days later we did have 70 degree readings into central IL.  

[cmillz]

14 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

It had me at near 70 today. Still stuck at 31. But yes it’s been remarkably consistent and best performing. 

also, when did it ever have you near 70 for today? Seems like yet another lie on your part.

[cmillz]

6 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

It's gotten some general themes right, even though it can be off on the specifics.  The infamous run that had 70s in Moline for Christmas didn't pan out, but days later we did have 70 degree readings into central IL.  

That’s because it didn’t factor in the SSW induced -NAO that greatly impeded the northward extent of the warmth. We won’t be dealing with that nearly as much this time around. The warm front did eventually lift tho as MDW got to nearly 60. But yes, the point is that it can get a good read on the general themes of a pattern as you said, and the general theme going forward is warm and wet, which some have a problem with I guess?

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, cmillz said:

That’s because it didn’t factor in the SSW induced -NAO that greatly impeded the northward extent of the warmth. We won’t be dealing with that nearly as much this time around. The warm front did eventually lift tho as MDW got to nearly 60. But yes, the point is that it can get a good read on the general themes of a pattern as you said, and the general theme going forward is warm and wet, which some have a problem with I guess?

The Euro and AIFS are still fairly dry though for the next couple weeks, at least where most people on this board reside.  

[cmillz]

7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The Euro and AIFS are still fairly dry though for the next couple weeks, at least where most people on this board reside.  

The CPC thinks the upcoming period should lean wetter than average, even for the plains. Guess we'll see.

[jaster220]

OMG - lower Sub needs some storm action or its gonna get ugly in here.

[cmillz]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

OMG - lower Sub needs some storm action or its gonna get ugly in here.

I'll post it again because some seem confused still. Idk why but people in this day and age seem to be triggered by real data and facts.

 

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, cmillz said:

The CPC thinks the upcoming period should lean wetter than average, even for the plains. Guess we'll see.

The next 6 days or so look relatively dry for most, but there are some wetter signals beyond that timeframe during the period covered by the CPC maps.  I'd say the biggest uncertainty is in the northern/central Plains.

[mlgamer]

52 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

OMG - lower Sub needs some storm action or its gonna get ugly in here.

True dat! 

[chescowxman]

With our 7th winter "event" of the season we are now at 12.5" of snow for the season to date. This is 175% of normal snow through New Years Day.

This is in fact the 17th snowiest start to a winter season here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA. Below are the 36 seasons with at least 10" of snow through New Years Day with the ending snowfall for the entire winter season. There is a high correlation to above normal snowfall with such a relatively "snowy" start to the winter season.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, chescowxman said:

With our 7th winter "event" of the season we are now at 12.5" of snow for the seaon to date. This is 175% of normal snow through New Years Day.

This is in fact the 17th snowiest start to a winter season here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA. Below are the 36 seasons with at least 10" of snow through New Years Day with the ending snowfall for the entire winter season. There is a high correlation to above normal snowfall with such a relatively "snowy" start to the winter season.

If this winter is 175% normal to date, some of those occupying the top 10 are astronomically huge departures! EC known for wild extreme swings but that's just ridiculous really. Now that I moved out of west Detroit I'd better not move again to a less snowy locale or I'd have to give up this hobby, lol.

[chescowxman]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

If this winter is 175% normal to date, some of those occupying the top 10 are astronomically huge departures! EC known for wild extreme swings but that's just ridiculous really. Now that I moved out of west Detroit I'd better not move again to a less snowy locale or I'd have to give up this hobby, lol.

That's why I love climate history so much....folks in my area have an unrealistic view of what is normal. They don't understand that we had 2 of our snowiest decades in history the last 2 complete decades....all of that occurring in what many non-cyclical climate change folks deem is a warming climate.

[james1976]

Cleared the driveway earlier. Solid inch and a half from the morning clipper. Very picturesque neighborhood. I think the airport has 6" or under snow depth but I feel up here in the north metro we gotta be closer to 8" snow depth.

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, chescowxman said:

That's why I love climate history so much....folks in my area have an unrealistic view of what is normal. They don't understand that we had 2 of our snowiest decades in history the last 2 complete decades....all of that occurring in what many non-cyclical climate change folks deem is a warming climate.

The globe is warming.  Regional climate isn’t global warming.   It’s literally in the name.   

[jaster220]

22 minutes ago, james1976 said:

Cleared the driveway earlier. Solid inch and a half from the morning clipper. Very picturesque neighborhood. I think the airport has 6" or under snow depth but I feel up here in the north metro we gotta be closer to 8" snow depth.

Very nice recovery up there! Btw, whatever happened to that other poster MSPstorm? I forget his posting name tbh.

[Madtown]

4-8" clipper Sunday night?

 

Bigger issue 12 team outdoor hockey tournament next weekend and looks like heavy snow potential with rain before is increasing...any insights welcome. 350 people coming in to town

[Niko]

This looks interesting!!

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
908 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pockets of light snow showers and flurries will continue to develop
  at times throughout the night. Dusting to half inch of additional
  accumulation possible.

- Cold weather will persist through the weekend. Wind chills are forecast
  to fluctuate between the single digits and teens above zero.

- There will be another chance for a dusting of light snow Saturday afternoon
  and evening.

- The potential exists for accumulating snowfall over 1 inch Sunday night
  into Monday morning. The highest likelihood for impacts to the
  Monday morning commute is currently located north of M-59.

&&

[Hoosier]

National radar 27 years ago right now.  Anyone remember this storm?  

 

[Clinton]

It's a rainer for me but the GFS gets some snow into the plains.

[hawkstwelve]

00z CMC looking a bit more GFS-like when compared to its 12z run. Finally dropping some snow on the N side of the system. Not nearly as heavy as some GFS runs but a small step in that direction. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z GFS still going with the 1-2 punch look with the secondary system being quite strong. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

What a game at the Sugar Bowl 

[Black Hole]

At least for me, it now looks like at least mid January (15th or later) for any serious snow chance. And even then models have some things right but it's not looking as obvious for snow down here. 

Further north, however, it does look better. KC may be more on the edge, but NE north should see some action. On the other hand, at least we have some rain coming. We really need it. 

[westMJim]

KEY MESSAGES

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING  

ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY

MILDER NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES  

WE'LL SEE A PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES  
TO WESTERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY. THERE IS A AGREEMENT IN THIS  
SHIFT IN THE CLUSTER ANALYSIS WITH A RIDGE SETTING UP OVER THE   
EASTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING  
A PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID   
40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE  
(20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY. BETTER   
CHANCES FOR RAIN (GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT) HOLD OFF UNTIL   
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF EACH  
OF THESE CHANCES WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING  
RAIN.

We now have the year 2025 in the record books.  The mean temperature at Grand Rapids for 2025 was 49.4° that is a departure of -0.1° so temperature wise the year was normal. The highest temperature was 95 on June 23^rd there were 15 days with high of 90 or better the lowest temperature was -6 on January 22^nd there were 2 nights with lows of 0 or less. There were 138 nights with lows of 32 or less. There was a total of 28.78” of precipitation that was a departure from average of -10.62” There was a total of 63.8” of snowfall that is a departure of -10.8” the most on the ground for the season was 6” there were 61 days with 1” or more on the ground.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 20/13 there was 2.7” of new snow fall and at 7 am there was 4” on the ground here in my yard I had 4” of new snow fall and there is 7” of snow on the ground here in my yard. For today the average H/L is 32/21 there record high of 59 was in2004 the coldest high of 8 was in2020 the record low of -2 was in 2001 the warmest low of 52 was in 1897.  The wettest was 1.35” in 1897 the most snowfall of 6.4” was in 1999 the most on the ground was 12” in 2001.

Don’t get used to this snow on the ground as it looks like another thaw is coming later next week.

Detailed Forecast

Today

A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 9am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 23. West northwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15. Light west northwest wind.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Light west wind.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Light and variable wind.

Sunday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29.

Tuesday

A chance of rain and snow showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 38.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45.

 

 

[tStacsh]

A surprise 2.5" of the fluffiest snow I've seen in years.    I heard models talking 25-1 or 30-1 and I believe it.   I could have blown it off my driveway.    Total from 3.5 days of around 6".  The Lake hath giveth. 

[chescowxman]

As I had mentioned yesterday some models were hinting at some snow showers overnight and we did indeed see some overnight which as many have mentioned recoated drives across the area. Here in East Nantmeal we picked up 0.3" of snow (our 8th winter event of the season). We continue with well below normal temperatures through Monday but then see a nice warmup with temperatures trending well above normal for much of next week. Overall the next week or so looks dry with maybe a snow shower chance Saturday night.

[Sumweatherdude]

Well . . . not to be a debbie downer, but it looks like we may miss out on the benefits of the sharply negative AO as it looks to rise steeply over the next 10 days.  KC usually needs a nice plunge of arctic air to get in on the snow game.  Otherwise, any storm passing south of us pulls up too much warm air.  There's exceptions, but that's our best scenario. 

I know there's still a long ways to go this winter, but it's a bit difficult not to be discouraged.  Teleconnections-wise, things had looked like they would be lining up for some action in our area, and it just isn't coming together.  

On the plus side, at least the latest GFS is giving us some rain next week.  We really need the moisture in whatever form we can get.  Hopefully that trend continues.

[hawkstwelve]

GFS is officially on its own with the handling of the 1/8 system. ICON, ECMWF, CMC, AIFS, Spire all keep the system further south (OK>MS>WI) and nothing but rain. This was really the only solution that got me snow over the next week+ and the likelihood of the GFS falling flat on its face yet again is pretty high, so... booooo.

12z CMC does have a kicker system behind the main one that moves through Iowa and drops some quick, heavy snow into WI.

[Minny_Weather]

I wish I could lie and say I like where I stand, but I can't. 3-4 straight days above 32° will surely expose some bare spots in the grass, and at this point there is very little ensemble support for one of the next weekend systems to target me.

[SE Nebraska wx]

We punt to mid January. No biggie. 

[jaster220]

Headed out to another nice coating of fresh snow that fell overnight. Looked like better part of an inch. NW flow clipper pattern is $$ this winter - the rest of it nasso much. Not looking forward to yet another warm-up, especially if it involves any more icing periods. Perhaps things will have taken a twist for the better by late next week.