January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

[jaster220]

GRR

Sunday night into Monday probabilities are higher with warm air
advection and better low level jet convergence paired with the
positive vorticity advection. Accumulations of an inch or more are
highlighted north of I-96 with probabilities of 40 to 80 percent
with the highest probabilities north of US-10.

That's a Harrison special in the making

[Hoosier]

Fun watching the tiny snowcover sublimating away with ample sun and temps in the low 20s.

[hawkstwelve]

12z ECMWF AIFS starting to pickup on the secondary wave behind the main low.

[Minny_Weather]

OP GFS still looks decent for most of Minnesota (sorry NW MN), but it's also in a world of its own. GEFS is still all over the place, albeit with half of them targeting some part of MN.

Didn't GFS do pretty well on that CO low the week of Thanksgiving? Or am I misremembering?

[bud2380]

Lot of warm air aloft for any storms that may form later in the week.  I know the GFS and Euro AI are both showing mostly rain on the late week system that appears to be showing up on most models.  

 

[bud2380]

3 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

OP GFS still looks decent for most of Minnesota (sorry NW MN), but it's also in a world of its own. GEFS is still all over the place, albeit with half of them targeting some part of MN.

Didn't GFS do pretty well on that CO low the week of Thanksgiving? Or am I misremembering?

IIRC it was all over the place.  The Euro AI was consistent and ended up pretty darn close to right from several days out.  With the data that someone else posted recently regarding the Euro AI 500mb score, it seems hard to discredit much of anything it is showing in the medium run.  

[Niko]

Looks like a minor "Thaw" coming next week. Not a torch, but mild enough to be in the 40s. Snowpack could take a beating as well, especially if it rains hard.

[bud2380]

Euro AI for next weekend does bring some snow chances back for portions of the upper MW and GL's.  One to keep an eye on anyways.  

 

[Niko]

Attm, its 20F w snowshowers. The ground has dusted up, but no accumulations.

Note: I think from mid-month and thereafter it gets bitter cold again and hopefully some southern storms to come along w it.

[hawkstwelve]

12z ECMWF is not having any of the fun for later next week. All rain with the first system and no following system behind it. It does just some very light snow as the trough moves through and the low wraps up near the Hudson Bay but hardly anything.

Earning it's nickname "Dr. No".

[Hoosier]

It's too early to post it yet, but I may be rolling out a Chicago snowfall futility post in the coming days depending on how things go.

Now, some may be wondering how on God's green earth can we be talking about futility in Chicago after the 7th snowiest November on record as well as a December that came in snowier than average.  Admittedly I had to get a little creative with this one, but I found something.  

[ChiTownSnow]

The -NAO is currently creating a "block" over Greenland, but it has actually helped to stall a separate ridge of high pressure over the East Coast. That keeps us warm as its funneling that 60 air straight into the Midwest.

Frustrating when all pieces seemingly come together

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Fun watching the tiny snowcover sublimating away with ample sun and temps in the low 20s.

Up here in Grayling it just won't quit snowing. Endless NW flow

[Minny_Weather]

EPS looks decent. At least compared to its operational counterpart.

[Slowpoke]

4 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Up here in Grayling it just won't quit snowing. Endless NW flow

You should see the snow just 10 miles west and north of Grayling right now, we found some spots that was between knee and waist deep! This has been one of the best holidays week for outdoor winter activities in years up here. The snowmobiling has been fantastic with fresh snow pretty much every day since the ice storm right after Christmas.

[chescowxman]

Still crunching the annual climate numbers for the other Chesco stations but at least here in East Nantmeal our average temperature for 2025 was 52.4 degrees this is the 5th coldest year in my 22 years at this location and the coldest since the 51.7 in 2013.

[mlgamer]

17 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Endless NW flow

This winter in a nutshell. 

[Andie]

High of 77, Sunny. 28% humidity
Not much of a change in temps or rain till next week. Then only a 20% chance of rain. 
 

Edit:  This really “sucs”.

[hawkstwelve]

New CPC maps showing warmth pretty much coast-to-coast for the next two weeks. They do show some cold along the northern tier of the country once we get to weeks 3-4.

[Niko]

NOAA:

By Sunday, the upstream height field begins to flatten as the next
wave traverses across CONUS. This wave will reach SE Michigan early
Monday morning, creating another glancing opportunity for
accumulating snow. Pacific origins of this wave afford a deeper
layer of column moisture than the Saturday night wave, although
there is still a signal for a low level dry layer (e.g. 12z NAM).
Whatever moisture does exist will act to engage the elevated warm
front as it tracks from Minnesota into SE Michigan early Monday
morning. Steepening mid level lapse rates with this system could
produce a narrow FGEN band of higher intensity snowfall rates during
the Monday morning commute, as depicted in the 12z ECMWF.
Accumulations above an inch are favored north of M-59, as the track
of the height fall center is right across northern Michigan.

[Minny_Weather]

2 hours ago, mlgamer said:

This winter in a nutshell. 

Ah NW flow - Alright for the Northern Plains/GLs, the absolute death kiss for the Central Plains. I remember my time in Nebraska well.

[SE Nebraska wx]

11 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

Ah NW flow - Alright for the Northern Plains/GLs, the absolute death kiss for the Central Plains. I remember my time in Nebraska well.

If next winter is another La Nina im gonna lose it. 

[mlgamer]

Pretty brutal snowfall deficits over much of the western and central states. Midwest and Ohio Valley doing well. Pretty easy to see how locked in the overall weather pattern has been this winter. (Note: I'm sure that is a date typo and should read "30 Sep 2025")

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Slowpoke said:

You should see the snow just 10 miles west and north of Grayling right now, we found some spots that was between knee and waist deep! This has been one of the best holidays week for outdoor winter activities in years up here. The snowmobiling has been fantastic with fresh snow pretty much every day since the ice storm right after Christmas.

Grayling's beating some areas of the UP so far this season at nearly 83" and like you said, the true jack-zone's been just to their NW where according to this map 120+ inches has fallen. Your firsthand account sounds exactly like my region of E. Grand Traverse at Christmas of '95 when we had 100+ by the holidays. Best holiday season riding of my life. 

Btw - I find these maps a bit light vs my actual measurements. They do a poor job of capturing the little LES dustings of a few tenths. When you get a lot of 'em they add up and thus this map is 2-3" off for Harrison. It's also possible due to our elevation here that there's a bit of a micro-climate that gets "data-smoothed" and thus lost in production of these maps. Not too familiar how they come to these amounts tbh. Had the same scenario at my place downstate in Marshall. We were on the very eastern edge of the LES and frequently woke up to 0.1-0.5" dustings off Lk. Michigan that were neither forecast nor acknowledged on any NWS event maps. 

[jaster220]

My office pm AFD

- Another Chance for Light Snow Sunday Night into Monday

The next wave in zonal flow sweeps through the area Sunday night
and into Monday. This precipitation is associated with a brief
period of strong warm air advection. The 290K surface shows 40
knots of wind directly up the pressure surfaces. While the lift is
strong it does not last for more than about 3 hours. Feel we are
looking at a burst of 1-2 inches of snow, possible 3 if the lift
lasts a bit longer. The will most affect our northern two rows of
counties or from Whitehall to Big Rapids to Mt. Pleasant
northward. Some impacts to the Monday morning commute are
certainly possible.

APX snippit:

Nevertheless...warm advection regime should allow better moisture to
overspread the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night, bringing the
potential for widespread accumulating snow back to the region...with
some probabilistic guidance hinting at a 25-35 percent chance of 4
inches of snow in 24hrs over us Sunday night into Monday at this
time. Given that this could be a wetter/denser snow...think it will
have a bit more of an impact than the last couple days` fluff.

[Niko]

Crystal clear skies attm w temps at 10F. Getting down into the single digits tanite.

[hawkstwelve]

ICON now showing some snow with the secondary wave. 

[hawkstwelve]

18z AIFS was a big step in the snowier direction.

[Thunder98]

4 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

If next winter is another La Nina im gonna lose it. 

We could be looking at an El Nino next winter. 

 

 

[hawkstwelve]

GFS finally gave up in its solution and aligns more closely with the other models. In fact, it's swung so much that it's removed the secondary system altogether.

Expected fold by this model but an unfortunate one.

[hawkstwelve]

Meanwhile the CMC doesn't have much with either wave but does bring some snow down with the trough in NW flow a couple days later. 

[hawkstwelve]

Kind of funny as the GFS goes less snowy finally, the AIFS says 'not so fast' and flips the other direction. Still a snowy look but quite a bit further south than the 18z run. 

[hawkstwelve]

And now the ECMWF looks like what the GFS has been looking like up until tonight's run. 

Well alrighty then... Glad we have this settled!

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

We could be looking at an El Nino next winter. 

 

 

Maybe that'll unseat that endless-PDO as well. 

[westMJim]

KEY MESSAGES

ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY  

TRENDING WARMER WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY

 

A SIGNAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) MOVE IN.   
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD WE NEED TO MONITOR FOR   
FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW FREEZING   
TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE RAIN STARTS EARLY ENOUGH A LIGHT   
GLAZING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN  
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BEFORE THE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMP UP FOR THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. TIMING  
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN (40-60  
PERCENT CHANCE) WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE  
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING COLDER AIR AND SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph.

Sunday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 7 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Friday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

 

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 22/8 there was 0.7” of snowfall so far this winter season GR is at 30.2” of snowfall that is very near the average and is +0.5” there is around 6” of snow on the ground here in the area. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 59 was in 2004 the coldest high of 9 was in 1919 the record low of -9 was in 2014 the warmest low of 53 was in 1897 the wettest was 1.50” in 1897 the most snowfall of 9.1” was in 1999 the most on the ground was 14” in 1979.

 

Some weather history for January 3^rd 1989 Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S., and five more in Washington and Oregon, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 78 degrees at Galveston TX and 82 degrees at Lake Charles LA were records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) and in 1994 A heavy wet snow blanketed much of the state of Ohio, with 12 to 18 inches reported in counties along the Ohio River. Newport received 21 inches. Thunder and lightning accompanied the snow, with five inches reported in Washington County and Noble County between 7 AM and 8 AM Tuesday. Parts of Washington County were without electricity for eight days following the storm.(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[hawkstwelve]

06z AIFS continues to be a good hit. I think this might be one of the strongest storms it's shown all season, at least for MBY.

If it ends up working out like this (BIG if) the GFS will deserve some credit. Sure, it has dropped the solution for now but it will probably come back and it sniffed it out originally.

[hawkstwelve]

Spire was another model that originally saw it, dropped it for a couple runs, and now brought it back. Pretty much the only other model who was in the GFS's camp.

[Tom]

There is a growing signal that the models might have done a "head fake" wrt to several factors that will influence the pattern from the 8th-16th that I feel will be the start of an active and colder wx pattern.

1) The quick reversal of the -NAO block 

2) The slow progression of the Southwest Trough that will be Storm #1 in this period of active weather.

I have opined that the 1st storm should be a good hit for @hawkstwelve @Minny_Weatherand the members up north and as I write this, @hawkstwelveconfirms the above.  The ensembles are trending MUCH better up north in the snow dept.  @jaster220could be in the warm sector depending on this storm track (8th-10th).  Nevertheless, there are very + signs for winter enthusiasts across the board.

0z GEFS...

 

0z EPS...There's your CO Low...

 

The EPS has really turned the corner and now showing quite a 500mb pattern to unleash the Hounds of the Arctic into the lower 48 during the 2nd full week of JAN.  

[BojiMom]

29 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

06z AIFS continues to be a good hit. I think this might be one of the strongest storms it's shown all season, at least for MBY.

If it ends up working out like this (BIG if) the GFS will deserve some credit. Sure, it has dropped the solution for now but it will probably come back and it sniffed it out originally.

What's the timing on this? I have a flights out of FSD and MSP on 1/12.

[Tom]

My 2nd call was for a back to back storm coming out of the S Plains and cutting NE into the S MW/OHV.  While the operational models aren't to enthusiastic about it right now, I just happened to flip on the Euro AI model and it has been trending towards that idea.  Will it become a Big Dog or not...or to far East is the question.  Let's see what happens with Storm #1 and then figure out the next storm system.