January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

hawkstwelve · January 3

7 minutes ago, BojiMom said:

What's the timing on this? I have a flights out of FSD and MSP on 1/12.

If it occurs, we're looking at 1/9-1/10 so hopefully roads will be cleared by 1/12. I know Sioux Falls does really well with clearing out roads quickly, not sure about the highways between Okoboji and I-29/FSD though.

Stacsh · January 3

20 hours ago, Niko said:

Looks like a minor "Thaw" coming next week. Not a torch, but mild enough to be in the 40s. Snowpack could take a beating as well, especially if it rains hard.

Yeah this snow will go quick compared to the last snow cover. That was dense. This is powder.

chescowxman · January 3

If you think we were running colder than normal the entire holiday season you are correct. In the 37 days since Thanksgiving day 31 of those days have featured below normal temperatures. We should have another 3 days of below normal temperatures before we finally see an above normal temperature day on Tuesday. In fact, that day should begin a streak of well above normal temperatures that should last for about 6 days before we look to potentially trend back to below normal by next Monday. There is a slight chance of some flurries tonight with our next rain chance arriving by Thursday night.

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jaster220 · January 3

2 hours ago, westMJim said:

KEY MESSAGES

ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT

ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY

TRENDING WARMER WITH RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO FRIDAY

A SIGNAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT) MOVE IN.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE ANOTHER PERIOD WE NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FREEZING RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL INITIALLY BE BELOW FREEZING
TUESDAY MORNING AND IF THE RAIN STARTS EARLY ENOUGH A LIGHT
GLAZING OF ICE IS POSSIBLE. HIGHS TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMP UP FOR THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED. TIMING
LOOKS BETTER FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOR RAIN (40-60
PERCENT CHANCE) WITH SHOWERS LINGERING INTO FRIDAY BEFORE THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH BRINGING COLDER AIR AND SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND.

Detailed Forecast

Today

A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 26. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. West northwest wind 3 to 6 mph.

Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 29. Calm wind becoming west southwest around 5 mph.

Sunday Night

Snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming south around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Monday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Southwest wind around 7 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Tuesday

A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Wednesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Thursday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Friday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 22/8 there was 0.7” of snowfall so far this winter season GR is at 30.2” of snowfall that is very near the average and is +0.5” there is around 6” of snow on the ground here in the area. For today the average H/L is 32/21 the record high of 59 was in 2004 the coldest high of 9 was in 1919 the record low of -9 was in 2014 the warmest low of 53 was in 1897 the wettest was 1.50” in 1897 the most snowfall of 9.1” was in 1999 the most on the ground was 14” in 1979.

Some weather history for January 3^rd 1989 Thirteen cities in the southeastern U.S., and five more in Washington and Oregon, reported new record high temperatures for the date. Highs of 78 degrees at Galveston TX and 82 degrees at Lake Charles LA were records for the month of January. (National Weather Summary) and in 1994 A heavy wet snow blanketed much of the state of Ohio, with 12 to 18 inches reported in counties along the Ohio River. Newport received 21 inches. Thunder and lightning accompanied the snow, with five inches reported in Washington County and Noble County between 7 AM and 8 AM Tuesday. Parts of Washington County were without electricity for eight days following the storm.(National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

This week I've seen "most snowfall" honors heavily occupied by 1999 (big bliz) and 2001 (huge LES outbreak). How much snow did GR score with those two periods?

Tom · January 3

12z ICON...looks like back to back hits for the N GL's during the Sun - Wed period and then we wait for the CO Low later in the week...

jaster220 · January 3

1 hour ago, Tom said:

There is a growing signal that the models might have done a "head fake" wrt to several factors that will influence the pattern from the 8th-16th that I feel will be the start of an active and colder wx pattern.

1) The quick reversal of the -NAO block

2) The slow progression of the Southwest Trough that will be Storm #1 in this period of active weather.

I have opined that the 1st storm should be a good hit for @hawkstwelve @Minny_Weatherand the members up north and as I write this, @hawkstwelveconfirms the above. The ensembles are trending MUCH better up north in the snow dept. @jaster220could be in the warm sector depending on this storm track (8th-10th). Nevertheless, there are very + signs for winter enthusiasts across the board.

0z GEFS...

0z EPS...There's your CO Low...

The EPS has really turned the corner and now showing quite a 500mb pattern to unleash the Hounds of the Arctic into the lower 48 during the 2nd full week of JAN.

Well, this LRC has certainly shown its hand, hasn't it? I ride the line while watching the UP get dumped on again and again. Just CANNOT get a track that takes the centerline of the snow swath thru Chicago (for you!) and right up across The Mitt (for me) to save our lives. Hoping that would change-up during this period and ofc it still may - too soon to totally throw in the towel, but it'd help if some models started at least hinting at it. For now, I'm just watching and looking forward to more clipper action and a wetter more plow-worthy snowfall possible Monday morning. Then to ride the roller coaster during the late week period and deal with potential icing and how bad this melt-off ends up being. I have a 39-day snow cover streak at stake. Appreciate your posts as always! Here's to hoping those teleconnection shenanigans pan out for both of us.

gimmesnow · January 3

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I need help. I want to hit Powderhorn, Snow River, and Whitecap. It's where the red star is. Monday looks amazing but Tuesday I am riding the edge on different models between snow, nothing, and wintry mix. And the models keep playing with the L going north or south, between mix and miss. I probably have to book hotel by tonight or sunday morning. I guess what are the odds that's wintry mix or nothing? Or should I just keep waiting for runs?

Tom · January 3

3 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I need help. I want to hit Powderhorn, Snow River, and Whitecap. It's where the red star is. Monday looks amazing but Tuesday I am riding the edge on different models between snow, nothing, and wintry mix. And the models keep playing with the L going north or south, between mix and miss. I probably have to book hotel by tonight or sunday morning. I guess what are the odds that's wintry mix or nothing? Or should I just keep waiting for runs?

Book it

jaster220 · January 3

9 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

I need help. I want to hit Powderhorn, Snow River, and Whitecap. It's where the red star is. Monday looks amazing but Tuesday I am riding the edge on different models between snow, nothing, and wintry mix. And the models keep playing with the L going north or south, between mix and miss. I probably have to book hotel by tonight or sunday morning. I guess what are the odds that's wintry mix or nothing? Or should I just keep waiting for runs?

What @Tom said. There won't be enough of anything to ruin the stellar conditions they have currently. Not mention Its January in the UP and leaning frozen over RN is the bet to make. Sounds like a great trip - let us know how it turned out.

jaster220 · January 3

12z NAM starts me off Tue at 1 pm with some FZRN..

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But by 4 pm says "wait - I like snow"

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Typically that would be reversed (start as SN then warming up) so we'll see.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

Was up in northern most door county, WI over New Year's post blizzard. About 11.. drifts about 3 ft. Crazy ice off the lake tho

hawkstwelve · January 3

12z CMC and GFS both are further SE with the initial swath of heavy snow than the ECMWF and AIFS. CMC also has some snow on the backside of the trough.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

Big steps in right direction from 12z gfs. Needs to slow down now and allow phasing and cold to catch up sooner

Niko · January 3

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Yeah this snow will go quick compared to the last snow cover. That was dense. This is powder.

50s could be in-play by weeks end. Tbh, looking forward to a little brief "Thaw." It will feel great.

Niko · January 3

2 shots of snow coming. One later today and a more , stronger snow system tomorrow nite into Monday morning where couple of inches is likely to fall in mby. After that...its icy slopfest and even some potential rainfall later in the week.

Stacsh · January 3

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

50s could be in-play by weeks end. Tbh, looking forward to a little brief "Thaw." It will feel great.

Normal for January. Seems like a 2 week up and down pattern at this point. By the time winter hits again it will be mid January. That gives us around 45 days of still decent possibilities. I think it will be a warmish March.
this is why I want a big storm. We got about 6 weeks to get it done.

other than that this is a return to winter that I used to remember. As I type this very light snow has started falling again. Should see around 1/4” -1/2” today. It all adds up.

Niko · January 3

21 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Normal for January. Seems like a 2 week up and down pattern at this point. By the time winter hits again it will be mid January. That gives us around 45 days of still decent possibilities. I think it will be a warmish March.
this is why I want a big storm. We got about 6 weeks to get it done.

other than that this is a return to winter that I used to remember. As I type this very light snow has started falling again. Should see around 1/4” -1/2” today. It all adds up.

Also, don't forget b4 ya know it, "Sun Angle" will be in play. Cant believe how time flies. As for storms, I think we have a couple of decent shots of getting a good storm or 2 or maybe even 3. All of that blocking up in Greenland, something has to give, right??!! So far, this has been a decent winter (especially for my area in New Haven and even in the Detroit Metro). There has been more snow otg this year then any previous year that I can remember. Also, constant cold. Btw: the Detroit River is covered in broken ice. There was a ship there yesterday trying to break the ice for other vessels. Anyhow, we still have a long winter ahead of us.

Same here. It is a fast mover, but adding on to the snowpack. The one tomorrow nite looks to be more intense w couple of inches likely.

gimmesnow · January 3

59 minutes ago, Tom said:

Book it

51 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What @Tom said. There won't be enough of anything to ruin the stellar conditions they have currently. Not mention Its January in the UP and leaning frozen over RN is the bet to make. Sounds like a great trip - let us know how it turned out.

48 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

12z NAM starts me off Tue at 1 pm with some FZRN..

But by 4 pm says "wait - I like snow"

Typically that would be reversed (start as SN then warming up) so we'll see.

Thank you all. I booked it. Lots of terrain open at snow river. I can always run further north and do Porcupine if it's nasty further south.

Minny_Weather · January 3

Unfortunately, a win for most of this forum is a loss for me. That was an awful 12Z suite for me.

jaster220 · January 3

/\ Fact

jaster220 · January 3

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Normal for January. Seems like a 2 week up and down pattern at this point. By the time winter hits again it will be mid January. That gives us around 45 days of still decent possibilities. I think it will be a warmish March.
this is why I want a big storm. We got about 6 weeks to get it done.

other than that this is a return to winter that I used to remember. As I type this very light snow has started falling again. Should see around 1/4” -1/2” today. It all adds up.

From when exactly? Winters have not been following a traditional script in recent decades. Wild swings mostly leaning mild-n-wet.

As for the roller coaster ride we are on again, this is actually pretty text book Nina for us with 07-08 being the extreme (in a great snowstorm way) example of that. Last winter could've been a great one here with just one or two SW flow events delivering the GOMEX moisture on NE winds but Feb failed to do that. Hoping this one would be better with the analogs and all touting such. No sooner did I make my morning post and some 12z models started dropping hints so I'm a bit more optimistic we may just have a pretty snowy stretch when all is said and done.

hawkstwelve · January 3

A bit of a funky look on the 12z ECMWF.

jaster220 · January 3

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Also, don't forget b4 ya know it, "Sun Angle" will be in play. Cant believe how time flies. As for storms, I think we have a couple of decent shots of getting a good storm or 2 or maybe even 3. All of that blocking up in Greenland, something has to give, right??!! So far, this has been a decent winter (especially for my area in New Haven and even in the Detroit Metro). There has been more snow otg this year then any previous year that I can remember. Also, constant cold. Btw: the Detroit River is covered in broken ice. There was a ship there yesterday trying to break the ice for other vessels. Anyhow, we still have a long winter ahead of us.

Same here. It is a fast mover, but adding on to the snowpack. The one tomorrow nite looks to be more intense w couple of inches likely.

Models holding fairly steady with the snow starting here around 10 pm on most. Most have a 6 hr window with peak around 1 am and a couple linger the snow a bit longer out to 9 hrs up here. Genuinely stoked to get a denser snow to help beef up the pack for the impending torch.

jaster220 · January 3

3 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

A bit of a funky look on the 12z ECMWF.

What's driving it so far south? Is there a NP suddenly in the picture or what?

Stacsh · January 3

3 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

From when exactly? Winters have not been following a traditional script in recent decades. Wild swings mostly leaning mild-n-wet.

As for the roller coaster ride we are on again, this is actually pretty text book Nina for us with 07-08 being the extreme (in a great snowstorm way) example of that. Last winter could've been a great one here with just one or two SW flow events delivering the GOMEX moisture on NE winds but Feb failed to do that. Hoping this one would be better with the analogs and all touting such. No sooner did I make my morning post and some 12z models started dropping hints so I'm a bit more optimistic we may just have a pretty snowy stretch when all is said and done.

Certainly feels more like a winter at least. Outside 1 big slow melt I’ve had snow on the ground for most days since Dec 1st. That’s a big change from what we are used to. Snow piles stuck around and are pretty big even in my driveway. That’s a change from the last 9 winters. Where we’ve had snow and then just gone for two weeks every winter.

Hoosier · January 3

I think there's a realistic possibility that I have seen my deepest snow depth that I will see the rest of this winter. And it was in November/early December.

hawkstwelve · January 3

ECMWF AIFS ensemble is pretty close to its 00z and 06z runs. CMC ensembles are lighter and further SE. GEFS continues to lessen totals. EPS is just slightly less than 00z run but same placement.

jaster220 · January 3

2 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Certainly feels more like a winter at least. Outside 1 big slow melt I’ve had snow on the ground for most days since Dec 1st. That’s a big change from what we are used to. Snow piles stuck around and are pretty big even in my driveway. That’s a change from the last 9 winters. Where we’ve had snow and then just gone for two weeks every winter.

Gotcha now. Ofc, I was living in Detroit for two winters and the final 2 in Marshall missed me East and West then the huge Nino was warm interrupted by half a season's snow in a couple weeks of Jan. Last winter and so far this one up here have felt like those I grew up with in SEMI - consistently cold and snow cover not crazy deep. Only those winters typically had a bigger storm or two and so far still waiting on that classic set-up although the end of November hit here sorta qualifies just office dropped the headline ball per usual. Solid 8-12" storm is pretty traditional for SMI.

westMJim · January 3

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

How much snow did GR score with those two periods?

Here in my yard I had about 4" of very fluffy snow and there is now about 6 to 7" on the ground. At 1:40 pm today there is light snow falling here. On thing I would like to point out is that while clearing the driveway yesterday the ground is not frozen.

westMJim · January 3

20 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Snow piles stuck around and are pretty big

The snow we got back in late November and early December was much wetter than we generally get and was able to hold on with the melt down better. And we are just about average for snowfall at this point in the winter season.

hawkstwelve · January 3

24 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

What's driving it so far south? Is there a NP suddenly in the picture or what?

Tough to say for sure as the surface pressure placements look fairly closely aligned when comparing the 00z GFS and ECMWF. One thing I notice is the 500mb height differences - the more northern ECMWF that has the system cut a bit better into the Midwest has the high pressure over the Northeast extending further NW into Ontario while the more southern GFS keeps the heights a bit more suppressed which keeps the low more progressive and further south.

Of course that could be chicken/egg and a case could be made that it really boils down to how a trough dropping down out of BC/Alberta times and phases with the cutoff low ejecting out of the SW and whether that open trough can develop a proper low pressure center further north. Kind of a complex setup which is probably why the models are having fits with it.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

The 12z GFS is reacting to the raw physics of the Negative NAO "blocking" the storm's path. If the block is as strong as a -3.0 reading suggests, the storm heads east.

westMJim · January 3

We are now on January 3^rd and there has been some discussion on how this winter has been so far compared to winters past. In Grand Rapids at this time we are running just a little bit above average in the snowfall department with just over 30” of snowfall so far. Going back to 1950 the average snowfall for a winter season is 75.2” In the last 75 years the most snowfall in a season is 132.0” in 1952 the least snowfall is 35.9” in 1983. In the 75 year time period there has been 9 winters with over 100” 14 years with 90” or more 26 winters with 80” or more. On the low side there have only been 2 winters with less than 40” 6 winter with less than 50” and 13 winters with less than 60” That leaves 36 winters with between 60 and 80” As to how warm it has gotten in the last 75 years the December average warmest temperature average is 54 the warmest is 69 in 2001 and the coldest maximum is 37 in 2000. For January the average maximum temperature since 1950 is 48 the maximum is 66 in 1950 and the lowest maximum is 30 in 1977. There have been 12 years in the last 75 that it has not gotten above 40 in January 25 when it has not gotten above 45 and 40 years when it has not gotten above 50. For February the average warmest temperature since 1950 is 50 the maximum temperature in February is 73 in 2024, the lowest maximum temperature is 35 in 1978. There have been 4 years with it has not gotten above 40 18 years with it has not gotten above 45 and 39 years with it not reaching 50.

westMJim · January 3

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Outside 1 big slow melt I’ve had snow on the ground for most days since Dec 1st. That’s a big change from what we are used to. Snow piles stuck around and are pretty big even in my driveway. That’s a change from the last 9 winters.

Since 1950 the average number of days reported by NWS office in GRR of 1" or more in the ground is 71 days. in the last 9 years the average is down to 55 with the most being 72 in 2022 and the least being 27 in 2024 so your are right the last 9 winters have not had as many days with 1" or more on the ground here in the Grand Rapids area.

hawkstwelve · January 3

43 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

The 12z GFS is reacting to the raw physics of the Negative NAO "blocking" the storm's path. If the block is as strong as a -3.0 reading suggests, the storm heads east.

Unless I'm misunderstanding your post, the 12z GFS and 12z AIFS both have similar values of NAO around 00z on 1/10 (roughly -1.5) yet have different outcomes for this system. I think it's moreso in their handling of the downstream trough and when it develops into a proper low pressure system. AIFS does that over Iowa in a more true CO-low style while the GFS keeps it as an open wave until it reaches the Upper MW/OHV/NE, at which point it's too late to wrap up and develop meaningful moisture in the NW quadrant of the low. At least for everyone outside Michigan.

Niko · January 3

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Models holding fairly steady with the snow starting here around 10 pm on most. Most have a 6 hr window with peak around 1 am and a couple linger the snow a bit longer out to 9 hrs up here. Genuinely stoked to get a denser snow to help beef up the pack for the impending torch.

The one tomorrow nite looks very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets a 3-5inch outta this.

Niko · January 3

Snow started here. Temp is at 23F.

gimmesnow · January 3

7 minutes ago, Niko said:

The one tomorrow nite looks very interesting. I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets a 3-5inch outta this.

I'm heading into the heart of it on my UP trip. Accuweather is calling for 6-10 from the event. I'll definitely be posting, I'll be around Ironwood/Bessemer, it's about 46.5n by 90w lat long

westMJim · January 3

This is from today afternoon NWS discussion.

WARMER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED SOME FROM YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. HIGHS NOW LOOK TO RANGE MORE FROM AROUND 40 NEAR U.S. 10 TO THE MIDDLE 40S ALONG I-94. STILL, CONDITIONS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED AS A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. RAINFALL FROM THIS MULTI DAY EVENT LOOKS TO BE HEAVIER WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF SHOWING SWATHS OVER 1.00 INCH IN OUR AREA. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN WITH A MELTING SNOWPACK GIVING THE AREA MORE OF A LOOK OF LATE SPRING THAN DEEP WINTER.