January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

jaster220 · January 3

APX going bullish. Should put Harrison close to the 4” line.

Current snowfall
expectations are for 4-6+ inches north of a Leland to Gladwin
line...and 2-4 inches south (mainly the southwest corner of the
forecast area). Don`t believe that blowing/drifting snow will be a huge impact.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Unless I'm misunderstanding your post, the 12z GFS and 12z AIFS both have similar values of NAO around 00z on 1/10 (roughly -1.5) yet have different outcomes for this system. I think it's moreso in their handling of the downstream trough and when it develops into a proper low pressure system. AIFS does that over Iowa in a more true CO-low style while the GFS keeps it as an open wave until it reaches the Upper MW/OHV/NE, at which point it's too late to wrap up and develop meaningful moisture in the NW quadrant of the low. At least for everyone outside Michigan.

Right.. The strong neg NAO (hopefully) will slow everything down allowing the cold to catch up and phase sooner.. I guess my point was the negative AO and greenland blocking allows that to happen.. and that the GFS is picking up on that. I go back to the physics models versus the AI models. Hopefully the Euro follows suit in the next few runs

Niko · January 3

Flurries were seen in Athens, Greece as temps bottomed out in the upper 20s for nighttime lows. My nieces went there for the holidays and told me it was scarf weather at nite, but not too terribly cold during the daytime hours. 3 days were quite chilly there where highs were in the 40s and lows in the 20s. For them, that is way BN.

hawkstwelve · January 3

2 minutes ago, Niko said:

Flurries were seen in Athens, Greece as temps bottomed out in the upper 20s for nighttime lows. My nieces went there for the holidays and told me it was scarf weather at nite, but not too terribly cold during the daytime hours. 3 days were quite chilly there where highs were in the 40s and lows in the 20s. For them, that is way BN.

We are going on a cruise in early May and we end in Athens. We're going to spend a day post-cruise to check out all the sites. It'll be our first time ever going to Greece. Can't wait to visit and hoping for some nice weather while we're there!

Niko · January 3

9 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

We are going on a cruise in early May and we end in Athens. We're going to spend a day post-cruise to check out all the sites. It'll be our first time ever going to Greece. Can't wait to visit and hoping for some nice weather while we're there!

Wow. That is awesome. You will definitely enjoy it especially the food. The weather there by May starts getting warmer. Sunny skies almost everyday. Heck, you probably can go swimming too, if it gets warm enough, although, early May might be a bit too soon. Let me know if you have any questions on where to go. Are ya going to any islands nearby?

hawkstwelve · January 3

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Wow. That is awesome. You will definitely enjoy it especially the food. The weather there by May starts getting warmer. Sunny skies almost everyday. Heck, you probably can go swimming too, if it gets warm enough, although, early May might be a bit too soon. Let me know if you have any questions on where to go. Are ya going to any islands nearby?

Thanks! We're staying in the Plaka neighborhood in Athens so hoping everything is within walking distance. Planning on hitting the Acropolis and maybe the Agora and then finding some good spots to eat.

We also stop in Santorini and Katakolo, in order to visit Olympia. Very excited for our private tour in Santorini where we can go anywhere on the island but a little nervous about the cable car. Read some horror stories about extremely long lines to get up/down from the Old Port. But Oia and Fira look absolutely beautiful!

hawkstwelve · January 3

18z GFS continuing the shift further and further to the SE.

Niko · January 3

2 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Thanks! We're staying in the Plaka neighborhood in Athens so hoping everything is within walking distance. Planning on hitting the Acropolis and maybe the Agora and then finding some good spots to eat.

We also stop in Santorini and Katakolo, in order to visit Olympia. Very excited for our private tour in Santorini where we can go anywhere on the island but a little nervous about the cable car. Read some horror stories about extremely long lines to get up/down from the Old Port. But Oia and Fira look absolutely beautiful!

That's fantastic. Don't worry. Everything is nearby, whether is a Tavern to go and eat, walking, exploring and etc.

Santorini you will luv for sure. Get ready to rock n roll there w the food. Holy Crap. Also, you will definitely gain some weight. I do all the time w all that delicious food and especially the desserts..... Tyramisou, Kataifi & Paklava just to name a few. As for meals, order Pastitysio, or Mousaka, or even Souvlaki pita or on a stick w side of french fries and fresh bread w salad...O man Yum! Don't worry about the cable car. Just have fun there and enjoy it.

Niko · January 3

11 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS continuing the shift further and further to the SE.

Holy Crap..that is knocking on my doorstep. That is much further south. I think models are starting to notice the strong blocking up in New Greenland.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

46 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

18z GFS continuing the shift further and further to the SE.

To me we just need this whole thing to start slowing down, so it can phase earlier. Traditionally with the blocking up north things tend to slow down as we get closer. However that's not always true.

A phase near the Mississippi River valley is generally The Sweet spot for Chicago area

hawkstwelve · January 3

Meanwhile, 18z AIFS shifted slightly further north and continues to up totals.

So we have the ECMWF and its AI model in the more northern camp and the GFS and CMC in the more southern camp. The AIGFS looks more like the former than the latter, with better phasing and more northern extent of precip. It actually looks extremely close to the ECMWF AIFS with the low pressure system taking a very similar track through Iowa.

Clinton · January 3

18z Euro for tomorrow night's clipper.

And a good soaker for KC next week which we'll take.

ChiTownSnow · January 3

43 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Meanwhile, 18z AIFS shifted slightly further north and continues to up totals.

So we have the ECMWF and its AI model in the more northern camp and the GFS and CMC in the more southern camp. The AIGFS looks more like the former than the latter, with better phasing and more northern extent of precip. It actually looks extremely close to the ECMWF AIFS with the low pressure system taking a very similar track through Iowa.

Purely my opinion.

A -3.0 NAO is a "brick wall." Traditional models "calculates" the force of that wall.
The AI model might be "estimating" based on more common, weaker blocks in past

I may be wrong about the general idea at this point , but I will go down with the ship here that this is coming east :)

StormchaserChuck1 · January 4

18z GFS ensembles with a nice look for cold at the end of the run

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Niko · January 4

32 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Purely my opinion.

A -3.0 NAO is a "brick wall." Traditional models "calculates" the force of that wall.

The AI model might be "estimating" based on more common, weaker blocks in past

I may be wrong about the general idea at this point , but I will go down with the ship here that this is coming east :)

I agree. That block is wayyyy to strong.

Niko · January 4

Snowing moderately still and nearing an inch. Temp at 22F.

jaster220 · January 4

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think there's a realistic possibility that I have seen my deepest snow depth that I will see the rest of this winter. And it was in November/early December.

What did you reach? I was at 9.5" when the pre-Christmas thaw set in here but I think you did much better up to that point, no?

jaster220 · January 4

Guess it's time for some maps. GRR's afd acting like its a non-event since it mostly misses GR but their map and APX's seem to align on 2-4" hit here. Should be a nice solid plowable storm and my kind of moist lower ratio stuff. I know its expected to take an immediate beating starting as early as Tuesday but it should look pretty good Monday.

GRR

APX

jaster220 · January 4

1 hour ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Purely my opinion.

A -3.0 NAO is a "brick wall." Traditional models "calculates" the force of that wall.

The AI model might be "estimating" based on more common, weaker blocks in past

I may be wrong about the general idea at this point , but I will go down with the ship here that this is coming east :)

The shift SE is also a seasonal trend with the recent bliz even doing such. W UP did not reach epic totals due to that (within 24 hrs) but the E UP and Tip of The MItt region benefitted and saw their amounts increase. It also helped mby go from a fringing to a Warning headline. There's also just the normal seasonal progression that systems hit further SE of prior storms as the baroclinic zone slowly sinks south.

bud2380 · January 4

1 hour ago, hawkstwelve said:

Meanwhile, 18z AIFS shifted slightly further north and continues to up totals.

So we have the ECMWF and its AI model in the more northern camp and the GFS and CMC in the more southern camp. The AIGFS looks more like the former than the latter, with better phasing and more northern extent of precip. It actually looks extremely close to the ECMWF AIFS with the low pressure system taking a very similar track through Iowa.

Euro AI is locked in. I wouldn’t bet against it. Twin Cities look great

jaster220 · January 4

12 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Euro AI is locked in. I wouldn’t bet against it. Twin Cities look great

I think we're a bit far out for that part. It was way off on SLP placement for the 29th. At a much closer timestamp (hr78), it had it over far SEMI when in the end it was way north across far NMI.

jaster220 · January 4

Passed thru Clare (far SE corner of Clare Cnty) today and there's a stark snow cover gradient between there and here in Harrison. Due to the larger systems this week having high winds, there's only 1 to 1.5" on the freeway down there. Here in the highlands we have about 5" OTG. This is a pretty common theme. They will most likely see some bare ground with the warm-up on tap. Heck even open spots here (there aren't too many tbh) suffer a minimal cover thanks to the extreme winds. We expect to increase depth nicely which will mitigate a bit ofc.

jaster220 · January 4

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Snowing moderately still and nearing an inch. Temp at 22F.

Had 1" yesterday and another 1/2" with today's minor wave. Really keeping the snow cover looking fresh. It was an ideal day at 22F and low winds for just about any winter activity-wise. ONLY way it could've been more ideal would be deeper snow for the snowmobilers. Ice fishing folks like it as-is ofc makes for stronger ice.

jaster220 · January 4

9 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here in my yard I had about 4" of very fluffy snow and there is now about 6 to 7" on the ground. At 1:40 pm today there is light snow falling here. One thing I would like to point out is that while clearing the driveway yesterday the ground is not frozen.

That's somewhat surprising tbh. Extremely frozen here, heck even on our drive down to Midland the Tittabawassee river is all iced over at Sanford and that's flowing water. I guess the snowstorm hitting late Nov never allowed the ground a chance to cool down. I remember posting earlier in November that our soil temps must be cooling as local ponds were remaining iced covered even on sunny days that reached 40F.

Niko · January 4

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Had 1" yesterday and another 1/2" with today's minor wave. Really keeping the snow cover looking fresh. It was an ideal day at 22F and low winds for just about any winter activity-wise. ONLY way it could've been more ideal would be deeper snow for the snowmobilers. Ice fishing folks like it as-is ofc makes for stronger ice.

Just when out and shoveled. Its a little over an inch. I didn't think this weak clipper would give this much. Glad you scored too.

Niko · January 4

All eyes on end of next week period as a phase might be in the making as a potential southern storm forms. Even Oklahoma gets in the action w some good snows. If that happens, then alotta members will be happy on here. I think it has a good chance thanks to the strong -NAO. Lets just leave it at that!

Btw: This was not showing yesterday.

jaster220 · January 4

5 minutes ago, Niko said:

Just when out and shoveled. Its a little over an inch. I didn't think this weak clipper would give this much. Glad you scored too.

Congrats! Nice when it over-performs. I'd be great if Monday's even could do that too, right??

Niko · January 4

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Congrats! Nice when it over-performs. I'd be great if Monday's even could do that too, right??

I think tomorrow nites clipper has the potential to deliver better snows, especially for your area. My area is calling for 1-2" total.

ChiTownSnow · January 4

00z GFS is an over correction to the block. Too far south/East/ and suppressed imo

For Chicago.. it's good to see

hawkstwelve · January 4

00z AIFS shifted a bit to the SE and significantly cut back on totals.

Clinton · January 4

GEPS ens more bullish tonight for next week's storm.

Hoosier · January 4

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

What did you reach? I was at 9.5" when the pre-Christmas thaw set in here but I think you did much better up to that point, no?

My depth was 6" in the early November snow. That completely melted by the time the late November storm hit, which gave me a peak depth of 8".

Black Hole · January 4

At least it's looking wet here around Friday. It's been over a month now since we had any real rain.

Long range guidance slowing down the transition to colder weather, which now looks to be around the 20th on the most recent guidance. I guess we will see if that holds but late January to early Feb is peak snow/cold climo for my area, especially in la nina.

MI Storm · January 4

CMC was great here late week, but its the CMC lol.

jaster220 · January 4

Headlines!

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Quick-hitting thump snow even better!

Sig snow is further south on their updated map too & the 4" line is just east of me as APX mentioned.

westMJim · January 4

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's somewhat surprising tbh. Extremely frozen here,

In the last few winters the ground not getting frozen in somewhat common here is the GR metro area. In the last few years I have had gladiolas and potatoes survive the winter. So I am not sure how deep the ground has frozen here in those winters, but yes with a early snow fall the ground may not freeze down too deep. That was not the case when I lived in Bay City where it was not usual for the ground to freeze down to the water lines

westMJim · January 4

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Headlines!

Looks like your area will get some snow,....

hawkstwelve · January 4

ICON now keeping the system further to the SE and all rain, closer to the GFS. AIFS has really been stepping back on snow totals the past couple runs. Not really due to a change in track but moreso a much weaker low pressure system with less precip on the northern extent. 00z ECMWF wasn't terrible and still had snow on the backside of the low with a pretty big shift to the WNW vs 12z. Not nearly as progressive.

It'd be nice to have models start agreeing more on how this will shape out but as it stands now I'm not too confident we will score anything meaningful here. We're about 5-6 days out now so hopefully we will get some answers over the next 24-48 hours at least on the big picture progression.

ChiTownSnow · January 4

32 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

ICON now keeping the system further to the SE and all rain, closer to the GFS. AIFS has really been stepping back on snow totals the past couple runs. Not really due to a change in track but moreso a much weaker low pressure system with less precip on the northern extent. 00z ECMWF wasn't terrible and still had snow on the backside of the low with a pretty big shift to the WNW vs 12z. Not nearly as progressive.

It'd be nice to have models start agreeing more on how this will shape out but as it stands now I'm not too confident we will score anything meaningful here. We're about 5-6 days out now so hopefully we will get some answers over the next 24-48 at least on the big picture progression.

There is a smaller "shortwave" dropping from Canada. The GFS/ICON think this shortwave will push the storm south (Suppression).

The Euro thinks the two will "phase" or interact, pulling the storm further north.

As you mentioned the next 24-48 hours we should see the compromise.. hopefully (for Chicago) t's a compromise between the Euro and 06z GFS.

hawkstwelve · January 4

12z GFS taking a slight step in the direction of the more northern camp. Low pressure made a move to the WNW vs previous runs and is a bit stronger. Looks like a similar adjustment in placement as the 00z ECMWF run made vs its 12z run yesterday. Drops a decently heavy albeit narrow swath of snow.