January 2026 Obeservations & Discussions

Clinton · January 4

12z CMC looks like a colder version of the ICON.

hawkstwelve · January 4

18 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

There is a smaller "shortwave" dropping from Canada. The GFS/ICON think this shortwave will push the storm south (Suppression).

The Euro thinks the two will "phase" or interact, pulling the storm further north.

Yup, this is what I was trying to get at yesterday. It's all in how those two pieces come together (or don't) that determines how this plays out. Earlier phasing, more northern and generally more snowy. Slower phasing, system stays progressive, further suppressed, and more warm/rainy. Messy situation.

Hawkeye · January 4

The GFS is flopping around wildly with the late-week storm.

ChiTownSnow · January 4

14 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

Yup, this is what I was trying to get at yesterday. It's all in how those two pieces come together (or don't) that determines how this plays out. Earlier phasing, more northern and generally more snowy. Slower phasing, system stays progressive, further suppressed, and more warm/rainy. Messy situation.

I think the upcoming Euro will make or break this. Gfs show us the phase happening sooner. Hopefully the king will show a slower, stronger, negative tilted solution

Jaycee_CHI · January 4

Happy belated New Year everyone!

I might be biased but It’s been a boring stretch for awhile huh? Crazy to think how we started vs. the past what… 3 weeks or so?

To be totally honest though, I’m almost more excited for this warm up than snow right now. Not to be TMI but I have both POTS & Raynauds Syndrome, meaning my hands, feet, nose etc. are cold CONSTANTLY. It’s sadly only gotten worse with time too, so having a warm up at this point is going to be awesome! There might even be a few days where I don’t have to wear gloves and ugly compression socks for once! Weeeeee

I do hope things come back around though. I’m not holding my breath at it happening anytime soon though; not for any particular reason either other than just doubt based solely on the winters we’ve had the past few years. Just feels like these long stretches of nothing, a brief 38 degree all day rain storm, then back to cold, cloudy nothingness has been the theme around the Great Lakes. Hoping this year throws a curveball like it did earlier though. Guess we’ll see!

ChiTownSnow · January 4

57 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The GFS is flopping around wildly with the late-week storm.

Truth likely lies in the middle somewhere

Hoosier · January 4

18 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Happy belated New Year everyone!

I might be biased but It’s been a boring stretch for awhile huh? Crazy to think how we started vs. the past what… 3 weeks or so?

To be totally honest though, I’m almost more excited for this warm up than snow right now. Not to be TMI but I have both POTS & Raynauds Syndrome, meaning my hands, feet, nose etc. are cold CONSTANTLY. It’s sadly only gotten worse with time too, so having a warm up at this point is going to be awesome! There might even be a few days where I don’t have to wear gloves and ugly compression socks for once! Weeeeee

I do hope things come back around though. I’m not holding my breath at it happening anytime soon though; not for any particular reason either other than just doubt based solely on the winters we’ve had the past few years. Just feels like these long stretches of nothing, a brief 38 degree all day rain storm, then back to cold, cloudy nothingness has been the theme around the Great Lakes. Hoping this year throws a curveball like it did earlier though. Guess we’ll see!

Happy new year to you as well! My mom has Raynauds too. It's crazy how cold her hands can get. Like ice.

Hopefully we pick it up again soon in the snow department.

Clinton · January 4

12z Euro is now a weaker version of the GFS.

hawkstwelve · January 4

Interestingly, the new version of the CMC model looks more like the AIFS runs of a few rounds ago than it's regular counterpart. This seems to be a dying solution though so not holding my breath.

Jaycee_CHI · January 4

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Happy new year to you as well! My mom has Raynauds too. It's crazy how cold her hands can get. Like ice.

Hopefully we pick it up again soon in the snow department.

Ughh it’s AWFUL. Everytime someone holds or grabs my hand I just get ready to give an explanation lol

Agreed though! Tbh I don’t even care if we get some rain too since our drought still isn’t great. Plus that system last week brought some actually intense thunderstorms and i honestly loved it sm.

But yeah, even if we can get one Blizzard for the year I’ll be happy. It’s legit been wayyyy too long!

hawkstwelve · January 4

Best run yet of the AIFS ensemble and the EPS was also an improvement over the past few runs. They look pretty similar for the most part.

OttumwaSnomow · January 4

Something to watch!

jaster220 · January 4

After close review of latest model runs it seems my WWA has a pretty high bust potential tonight with everything from 2" on the more northerly models (GFS/NAM/RAP) to 6+ on the more southerly models (GEM/RGEM/other SR's). Should be ripping pretty good right about the time I should be sleeping (ofc). WPC had a pretty good call from 9 days. Just looks likely to verify quite a bit north of their original +SN line.

APX's latest call:

WPC back on 12/28

Minny_Weather · January 4

I'm gonna need a very unrealistic jog north (like, 2 states north) to even be in the running for this weekend's system(s). Sorry, I'm not buying what Euro is offering. I do not think that I am going to get 4" of snow from a low that is in Missouri. Good luck Jaster and Madtown cuz I think you guys are the only ones who have a decent shot at good snowfall.

Clinton · January 4

21 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Something to watch!

Getting in to KC on this run.

jaster220 · January 4

28 minutes ago, Minny_Weather said:

I'm gonna need a very unrealistic jog north (like, 2 states north) to even be in the running for this weekend's system(s). Sorry, I'm not buying what Euro is offering. I do not think that I am going to get 4" of snow from a low that is in Missouri. Good luck Jaster and Madtown cuz I think you guys are the only ones who have a decent shot at good snowfall.

I've got some nasty burn scars from "The King" over the years.

SE Nebraska wx · January 4

Jim flowers liking the Euro. Says the GFS is way off

MI Storm · January 4

The more southernn solutions. It seems like it's all dynamic drive. Given the temp maps.

jaster220 · January 4

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ChiTownSnow · January 4

Meh.. nothing looks really good. Nothing looks really terrible.. just meh at this point.

This storm is frustrating right now

Stacsh · January 4

1 minute ago, jaster220 said:

Nice. Good luck. Looks like a slow melt coming here for the next 7-10 days.

Clinton · January 4

27 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Jim flowers liking the Euro. Says the GFS is way off

The Queen is caving

Clinton · January 4

Good chance for some decent rain for my area which is fine with me if snow is out of the question. Drought has intensified.

jaster220 · January 4

APX

More weekend storm potential?  Trends are leaning that way...: As
mentioned above the weekend is looking unsettled with forecast
trends honing in on another strong system across the Great Lakes
region...and track will ultimately depend on whether this is an all
snow event or do we get to play around with precipitation types? But
another system that bears watching in a winter that seems sort of
relentless at this point.

jaster220 · January 4

While Gaylord may have a deep and relentless winter in progress the snow depths for most of The Mitt are not on par with traditional big winters of lore. At least not currently. NW of Cadillac today and I’d say trails are decent but nothing special.

SE Nebraska wx · January 4

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The Queen is caving

Nebraska can't catch a break.

hawkstwelve · January 5

Yeah the 18z Euro was no bueno for up here and now looks pretty close to the more southern GFS. The ensembles remain slightly further NW than the OPs but given the trends it's not looking good. Guess we will be waiting a while for the next shot of snow.

Thankfully we had a decent end to November and a good start to December. Since then, there has been absolutely nothing of interest and the ground has been brown for a while now. So boring.

MI Storm · January 5

1 hour ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Nebraska can't catch a break.

The track is good for your area. If it get's a couple of degrees colder. It could be a nice event up there.

Minny_Weather · January 5

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

While Gaylord may have a deep and relentless winter in progress the snow depths for most of The Mitt are not on par with traditional big winters of lore. At least not currently. NW of Cadillac today and I’d say trails are decent but nothing special.

That's about how it looks here too.

hawkstwelve · January 5

00z ICON is interesting. The initial low stays south as rain and then a secondary low with a more northern extent drops snow.

gimmesnow · January 5

The event up here busted kind of, but conditions are so bad in SE Wisconsin I have zero regrets.

Andie · January 5

This coming Thursday we have a 60% chance of rain and 70* for a high.
That isn’t winter my friends, that’s Spring.

hawkstwelve · January 5

Decent shift to the WNW on the 00z CMC and holds back a piece of energy a bit longer over the GLs. Drops a fair amount of more widespread snow vs previous runs.

hawkstwelve · January 5

00z GFS with a similar new look but a heavier swath of snow for some parts.

hawkstwelve · January 5

Really nice improvement on the 00z AIFS. Placement is pretty similar but a good jump in totals.

Of course things might be trending better after I post about trends looking bleak. Seems to work out that way more often than not. 12z runs will be very interesting. Momentary blip or something legit down the homestretch?

westMJim · January 5

KEY MESSAGES

BRIEF WINDOW FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE THIS MORNING

FREEZING RAIN TO RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT

WARMER WITH PERIODS OF RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY

Detailed Forecast

Today

A slight chance of rain and snow before 11am, then a slight chance of rain between 11am and 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight

A 20 percent chance of rain after 4am. Patchy fog after 10pm. Otherwise, cloudy, with a low around 31. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph after midnight.

Tuesday

Rain, mainly between 7am and 1pm. Patchy fog before 2pm. High near 38. Light and variable wind becoming north around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. West wind 3 to 6 mph.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 39. West southwest wind 3 to 7 mph.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 34.

Thursday

A 40 percent chance of rain after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 46.

Thursday Night

Rain likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35.

Friday

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42.

Friday Night

Rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

Saturday

Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36.

Saturday Night

A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.

Sunday

A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 32.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 29/25 there was a trace of snowfall and there was 4” on the ground. The highest wind gust was 18 MPH out of the SE. For today the average H/L is 32/20 the record high of 55 was in 1946 the coldest high of 5 was in 1912 the record low of -9 was in 1968 and 2018 the warmest low of 45 was in 2007. The wettest was 0.78” in 1998 (all rain) the most snowfall of 8.0” was in 2022 the most on the ground was 17” in 1999. One hundred years ago on January 5^th 1926 the H/L in Grand Rapids was 40/32 there was 0.08” of rainfall and a reported trace of snow on the ground.\

Some weather history for January 5^th 1982 A three day rainstorm in the San Francisco area finally came to an end. Marin County and Cruz County were drenched with up to 25 inches of rain, and the Sierra Nevada Range was buried under four to eight feet of snow. The storm claimed at least 36 lives, and caused more than 300 million dollars damage. (Storm Data) and in 1990 Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Central Gulf Coast Region. New Orleans, LA, was drenched with 4.05 inches of rain in 24 hours. An overnight storm blanketed the mountains of northern Utah with up to eleven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data).

Grizzcoat · January 5

Last two runs of the Euro (06Z and 00Z) webmodeldata?mod=ecmwfUED&mt=2026010506&hr=132&map=usnc_ll&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=36&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,kuchera,metar,county:55&altmodel=UED&uid=frozenkuchera36_whitecounty

webmodeldata?mod=ecmwfUED&mt=2026010500&hr=138&map=usnc_ll&gv0=P&mv0=null&mv1=null&mv2=sfsfc&gs=mslp_thk_pcp&mv5=36&mv8=scheme:white10snowhazwx,kuchera,metar,county:55&altmodel=UED&uid=frozenkuchera36_whitecounty

Tom · January 5

Happy Monday folks! Back on the grind...looks like winter wants to show up next weekend and stick around for a while based on the data I'm seeing. Looking like some teams that will be hosting NFL Playoff games could be down right frigid as we get deeper into the playoffs.

Alright, alright, alright...Who's going to whip up a storm thread for the late week system??? Maybe we can wait till the 12z suite of runs is complete.

Tom · January 5

Both GEFS/GEPS are pretty similar and suggesting a rather widespread snowstorm that would help start to rebuild the snowpack out in the Plains/Upper Midwest so when the Arctic Hammer shows up by the weekend of the 17th it doesn't loose its umpf! Let's do this!

Tom · January 5

@ChiTownSnow, there is that blocking and classic TxPanhandle Hook...surprisingly, the EPS has been trending slightly SE each run but cuts almost due N as it heads towards Chitown. This is a setup that can produce a more widespread snow system on the backside as the ULL occludes over the lakes. IMO, this would be a better situation for Chicago to get a chance at seeing any snow out of this on the backside.