January 2026 PNW thread

[Winterdog]

The 12Z Euro Op run looks exactly like what we have been through for most of the past 6 or 7 weeks.  A ridge too far west with troughs digging into it resulting in onshore flow too warm to support snow in the lowlands.

[MossMan]

Lovely morning for washing vehicles! 
 

If the mower deck was on the mower I would have cut some grass as well since it’s getting pretty shaggy. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Lovely morning for washing vehicles! 
 

If the mower deck was on the mower I would have cut some grass as well since it’s getting pretty shaggy. 

What size of wheels and tires on colorado? I have a new set of good years duratrac tires studded on black gm wheels off our 2019 colorado.  They have 200 miles. They are about a 33 inch tall tire. Or one size larger than a stock zr2. Make you a great deal

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What size of wheels and tires on colorado? I have a new set of good years duratrac tires studded on black gm wheels off our 2019 colorado.  They have 200 miles. They are about a 33 inch tall tire. Or one size larger than a stock zr2. Make you a great deal

285 70 17

[SilverFallsAndrew]

19 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Bold call for no snow at PDX but I guess there’s typically slightly higher odds for snowless winters down in Oregon than Washington and BC overall. 

PDX already has a record of consecutive years with snow. Weird in our present climate system. 

[Vince Vance]

59 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

December finished with an average temp there of -22.8. That's good for coldest since 1980 and second coldest since 1964.

They actually torched the first few days of the month. If the current pattern, which looks to persist for awhile longer, had set in a few days earlier it probably would have been their coldest December on record.

Down here in the PNW wasn’t it a warm winter in 1980 also? I remember many were saying it was because Mt Saint Helens went kaboom

[Slushy Inch]

We’ll see. Retrogression makes this more believable than past teases.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX already has a record of consecutive years with snow. Weird in our present climate system. 

I didn’t even know that interesting. Makes sense given the overall decent run of winters since 2015-2016. The only totally snowless winter for SEA was 2023-2024 in the last 10 years IIRC. 

[Front Ranger]

7 minutes ago, Vince Vance said:

Down here in the PNW wasn’t it a warm winter in 1980 also? I remember many were saying it was because Mt Saint Helens went kaboom

Yeah. Lots of similarities to the 1980 pattern so far, from the warmth in the West, the cool in the East and the frigid December in Alaska.

[Andstorm]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

PDX already has a record of consecutive years with snow. Weird in our present climate system. 

True but by other measures our recent winters have been relatively benign. I think it's been a decade or more since a true arctic front extended south of Portland. Our cold periods and snow/ice events have been highly outflow dependent. There is nothing unusual about that for a snow/ice event in Portland, but we're prob overdue at this point for a more potent cold blast that doesn't quickly devolve into a shallow cold layer. We're also working on a pretty long streak of winters with just a single true cold spell, when history clearly shows that it's not that uncommon to see a stubborn pattern deliver multiple bouts of cold air that last longer. I personally view the snow streak as somewhat arbitrary when you consider the broader winter trends. We've been pretty lucky to have the snow we've had given the limited opportunities in pdx. 

[Edmonds Husky]

11 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I didn’t even know that interesting. Makes sense given the overall decent run of winters since 2015-2016. The only totally snowless winter for SEA was 2023-2024 in the last 10 years IIRC. 

I think we’re statistically due for another set of subpar winters

[Andstorm]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah. Lots of similarities to the 1980 pattern so far, from the warmth in the West, the cool in the East and the frigid December in Alaska.

Th following question might come off as glib but i'm sincerely curious to hear from those of you who understand the science more than I do. Would looking at a single month (December) from a previous winter actually be predictive at all of what might occur the rest of winter? My perception is that there is too much randomness in weather patterns for that to be a useful method of prediction. 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

True but by other measures our recent winters have been relatively benign. I think it's been a decade or more since a true arctic front extended south of Portland. Our cold periods and snow/ice events have been highly outflow dependent. There is nothing unusual about that for a snow/ice event in Portland, but we're prob overdue at this point for a more potent cold blast that doesn't quickly devolve into a shallow cold layer. We're also working on a pretty long streak of winters with just a single true cold spell, when history clearly shows that it's not that uncommon to see a stubborn pattern deliver multiple bouts of cold air that last longer. I personally view the snow streak as somewhat arbitrary when you consider the broader winter trends. We've been pretty lucky to have the snow we've had given the limited opportunities in pdx. 

2022-23 had the cold spell in December and then the one in late February. Both were legit Arctic events.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Got a good slug of moisture up here on radar and it's all virga!!! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

More coming, of course Saturday snow level is rising to 4500ft lol. We are 3500 here. But snow levels are very hard to predict up here because the cold gets trapped so well. I've had snow here with a 6k predicted snow level.  Still just 24 currently,  cold entrenched good right now. Lastnight the low was 11. This is about average for here temp wise. 20-25 high and 10-15 low. This is about normal from early December through January. 

[BLI snowman]

Funny thing about 1980-81 is that January 1981 was also Fairbanks' warmest on record by a significant margin and to this day is still the warmest January on record in Alaska. Fairbanks hit 50 on January 15.

We did get a baby retrograde of that ridge with a quick snow/ice event that season at the start of February, but the cold air supply was fairly depleted by the time the 500mb pattern chose to cooperate a bit. Just another potential failure mode even if retrogression does occur....

 

[Andstorm]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

2022-23 had the cold spell in December and then the one in late February. Both were legit Arctic events.

That's fair. good call. both those events were relatively short lasting but definitely meet the definition. At least where I live, the December transition event was mainly sleet, which kind of sucked. Feb snowstorm was amazing and relatively unexpected. Snow was predicted but few models hinted at those kind of totals (granted, much of the portland metro didn't see near the official total).I have a bit of an aversion to late feb snow. beggars can't be choosers in this neck of the woods when it comes to snow events, but the longer days and higher sun angle take a bite out of the potency for me. 

[iFred]

21 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

I think we’re statistically due for another set of subpar winters

Actually a multi decade span.

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Th following question might come off as glib but i'm sincerely curious to hear from those of you who understand the science more than I do. Would looking at a single month (December) from a previous winter actually be predictive at all of what might occur the rest of winter? My perception is that there is too much randomness in weather patterns for that to be a useful method of prediction. 

Every winter is different to an extent, but most of the time what happens in December is not necessarily a strong indicator for what will happen the rest of the winter. That being said, in years like this one where forcings like ENSO and now the MJO are fairly weak, pattern persistence for longer periods is more likely. 

Also, 1980-81 is a good match to this year in a lot of ways, including ENSO and QBO, so it would make more sense than normal if we continued to follow a similar path for awhile.

[Cold Snap]

36 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I didn’t even know that interesting. Makes sense given the overall decent run of winters since 2015-2016. The only totally snowless winter for SEA was 2023-2024 in the last 10 years IIRC. 

2023-2024 had 0.3” at SEA. Last snowless winter there was 2015-2016.

[iFred]

At least something might be fun in the future for Randy and I.

[Ken in Wood Village]

It's a very code day at my place. It's hasn't reached 40 degrees today. We still have a East Wind which is keeping the temperature down. I had to put my heated jacket on to keep warm...lol

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

285 70 17

That would be awesome! At the moment though I am maxed out vehicle budget wise after buying, ordering a topper for it, looking at adding steps, and just getting the transmission rebuilt in the Escalade. Thanks for the offer though! 

[Christensen87]

The end of the Druncle  

[BlvuSumit]

11 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

The end of the Druncle  

 

[Edmonds Husky]

2 hours ago, Winterdog said:

The 12Z Euro Op run looks exactly like what we have been through for most of the past 6 or 7 weeks.  A ridge too far west with troughs digging into it resulting in onshore flow too warm to support snow in the lowlands.

Which is most likely the case. 
/half joking

[Slushy Inch]

Avert your eyes if you can’t handle long range druncle maps. Sort of matches 12z euro.

[TT-SEA]

Uptick in wind again for Sunday on 18Z ECMWF... and gets Randy in on the action so seems pretty likely. 

[BlvuSumit]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

58 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That would be awesome! At the moment though I am maxed out vehicle budget wise after buying, ordering a topper for it, looking at adding steps, and just getting the transmission rebuilt in the Escalade. Thanks for the offer though! 

Darn man I could of hooked you up on the transmission!! We build those in house, and do alot of them!!! Don't forget anything major i can save you a bunch. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

27 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Uptick in wind again for Sunday on 18Z ECMWF... and gets Randy in on the action so seems pretty likely. 

That shows a very bad storm here. Small area approaching 60mph!

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

2 hours ago, Edmonds Husky said:

I think we’re statistically due for another set of subpar winters

Statistically, the last 3 winters were subpar. So we're due for a good one in SEA.

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Darn man I could have hooked you up on the transmission!! We build those in house, and do alot of them!!! Don't forget anything major i can save you a bunch. 

Thanks! Yeah I thought about messaging you about the transmission, I have a great mechanic out on Camano Island that referred me to a shop in Burlington that does transmission rebuilds that he trusts so I went with them. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The star link is amazing, works great at cabin. 

I like having wifi but we also don't like having it. When you are up here with no cell service you wake up a part of your brain and you think of things to keep you busy.  Definitely a love hate deal having wifi here.

[MossMan]

January 31st

February 1st

Doesn’t seem that far fetched anymore lol 

[iFred]

38 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Darn man I could of hooked you up on the transmission!! We build those in house, and do alot of them!!! Don't forget anything major i can save you a bunch. 

I keep trying to think of reasons to swing by your shop, but I don't think you work on Teslas.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

I keep trying to think of reasons to swing by your shop, but I don't think you work on Teslas.

We have worked on hybrids,  changed the big battery and other maintenance.  

Nope, never have had a tesla in the shop.

But any forum member on major repairs can get a 20% discount. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

We have worked on hybrids,  changed the big battery and other maintenance.  

Nope, never have had a tesla in the shop.

But any forum member on major repairs can get a 20% discount. 

If there’s anything I need I’ll be sure to stop by because I already live on this side of the bridge about ~25 minutes away. 

[Lynnwoodweather]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Uptick in wind again for Sunday on 18Z ECMWF... and gets Randy in on the action so seems pretty likely. 

Eye candy for the destruction fetishes

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

If there’s anything I need I’ll be sure to stop by because I already live on this side of the bridge about ~25 minutes away. 

We will provide better service than anyone in the county.