2026-27 ENSO: Return of El Nino?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

1987 JJA:  +0.4

How about 1986? I feel that was more of the pre-nino summer of that event than 87, which was already at or near peak nino. My area 86 was a colder summer than 87.

[Hoosier]

6 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How about 1986? I feel that was more of the pre-nino summer of that event than 87, which was already at or near peak nino. My area 86 was a colder summer than 87.

I left out 1986 since the peak of strong didn't occur until well into 1987, but summer 1986 was -3.4 in Chicago.  So same trend as what happened in your area with summer 1986 being cooler than summer 1987.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Still waiting for a wet El Nino pattern

 

Bone dry here with no end in sight since 2021

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Hoosier]

The Nino is practically off the scale on the CFS

RONI is lower, but still quite impressive.

[gimmesnow]

So we're going to cancel Winter for 26/27?

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, gimmesnow said:

So we're going to cancel Winter for 26/27?

If we go into a super strong Nino, then it's going to be tough to pull off anything resembling a classic winter, imo.  A more borderline moderate/strong Nino wouldn't be ideal either, but you'd rather roll the dice with that compared to a stronger one.

If we follow a typical Nino playbook progression, then the odds of a better stretch of winter wx would tend to be later on in winter when the Nino is weakening.  December is often a bit hostile or an outright disaster in stronger Ninos, though not always.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

If it gets us a positive PDO I wont care. 

[Hoosier]

46 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

If it gets us a positive PDO I wont care. 

Even if the PDO goes positive with this Nino (still a question), it could very well be transitory before flipping negative again.

[Black Hole]

The Atlantic is expected to be dead this year with a more active Pacific. My hope is that the west Pacific is active and we get more recurving typhoons it'll help break up the warm water over there. I recall that happening in 2014, but it could help get the PDO more positive. 

 

[Andie]

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Apparently, things are shifting to an El Niño.  Columbia U. has their take on the unfolding change. 

[Andie]

On 4/17/2026 at 4:52 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

How about 1986? I feel that was more of the pre-nino summer of that event than 87, which was already at or near peak nino. My area 86 was a colder summer than 87.

As I recall the winter of 86/87 in Texas was quite cold with an ice storm. 
From Wikipedia Re.Winter 86/87:

The first snows fell earlier than usual, in November, and were reported as some of the worst in memory. Extreme cold killed humans and animals. Some people got lost near their houses and froze to death very near their front doors. The winter weather even reached the West Coast, with snowfall of 3.7 inches in downtown San Francisco setting an all-time record on February 5, 1887.

[Hoosier]

I don't believe there is any precedent in the recorded era for another strong Nino only 3 years after the last one... let alone if it becomes a super Nino.  There have been 4-5 year gaps before though. 

[Andie]

This is interesting food for thought.

  I’ve been having these mental “twinges” telling me that the climatic environment is changing in some surprising way. 
This article says it far better than I could. Give it a test drive  

https://gizmodo.com/this-growing-el-nino-could-irreversibly-alter-earths-climate-experts-warn-2000751194

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, Andie said:

This is interesting food for thought.

  I’ve been having these mental “twinges” telling me that the climatic environment is changing in some surprising way. 
This article says it far better than I could. Give it a test drive  

https://gizmodo.com/this-growing-el-nino-could-irreversibly-alter-earths-climate-experts-warn-2000751194

Yeah, there will be some lasting effects from this Nino, and it will give fodder to the "we're all gonna die" types out there.  

[Grizzcoat]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't believe there is any precedent in the recorded era for another strong Nino only 3 years after the last one... let alone if it becomes a super Nino.  There have been 4-5 year gaps before though. 

94-95 and 97-98 come to mind -- almost a similar setup if this one goes super

[Hoosier]

3 minutes ago, Grizzcoat said:

94-95 and 97-98 come to mind -- almost a similar setup if this one goes super

I've always thought of 94-95 as a moderate Nino.  

[Hoosier]

Interestingly, the new CANSIPS once again came in with cooler temperature anomalies in the north and warmer in the south in DJF despite having a strong Nino.  Honestly makes no sense based on past history of strong Ninos.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

^CPC is disregarding the model completely

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 4/30/2026 at 9:28 PM, Hoosier said:

I've always thought of 94-95 as a moderate Nino.  

Yeah, +1.5 on the ONI/RONI should be the threshold to divide moderate and strong el ninos. 94-95 and 02-03 fall short of the 1.5, so I consider them moderate. 86-88 and 09-10 breached the 1.5, so I consider them strong.

[Hoosier]

On 4/22/2026 at 11:25 AM, Hoosier said:

The Nino is practically off the scale on the CFS

RONI is lower, but still quite impressive.

They actually did change the scale on here now because of how extreme the output has been.

[Hoosier]

New Euro is out.  Every plume peaks the region 3.4 anomaly at over 2C, with a number of the plumes over 3C.

It's too early to say, but there is a play where this could become the strongest El Nino event in the past ~150 years.  Either way, confidence is increasing for a "super" Nino event.  

[Niko]

Well, break out the shorts for next winter and put away the shovels as they well not be needed, unless a freak snowstorm happens. We could be looking at a very mild winter.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Well, break out the shorts for next winter and put away the shovels as they well not be needed, unless a freak snowstorm happens. We could be looking at a very mild winter.

It's interesting when looking at the data for strong Ninos.  Not all of them have been torches around the Lakes.  There are some examples of near average or even cooler than average winters in strong Ninos.  But when you look at the data for "super" Ninos, there is a more notable shift in the warm direction (though it's a small sample size).  One super Nino that did not torch around the Lakes was 1972-73. 

Overall though, it would be hard to not lean in the direction of a warm winter if this Nino gets very strong/into super territory.  

[Clinton]

I found some composites for very strong El Niños.  We'll see if this season falls into this.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I found some composites for very strong El Niños.  We'll see if this season falls into this.

fwiw, here's the composite for strong Ninos, not just super Ninos (left out 1987 since that Nino peaked unusually early in late summer/early fall and then weakened pretty quickly).  I set the scale to the exact same as the images that you posted for easy comparison.  Still a warm signal in the northern US, but you can see how it's not quite to the same magnitude as it is for the super Ninos.

 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, here's the composite for strong Ninos, not just super Ninos (left out 1987 since that Nino peaked unusually early in late summer/early fall and then weakened pretty quickly).  I set the scale to the exact same as the images that you posted for easy comparison.  Still a warm signal in the northern US, but you can see how it's not quite to the same magnitude as it is for the super Ninos.

 

I think an ideal strong or super Nino would have split flow that phases over the southern Rockies. 

[Niko]

On 5/9/2026 at 12:45 AM, Hoosier said:

It's interesting when looking at the data for strong Ninos.  Not all of them have been torches around the Lakes.  There are some examples of near average or even cooler than average winters in strong Ninos.  But when you look at the data for "super" Ninos, there is a more notable shift in the warm direction (though it's a small sample size).  One super Nino that did not torch around the Lakes was 1972-73. 

Overall though, it would be hard to not lean in the direction of a warm winter if this Nino gets very strong/into super territory.  

I might need to visit Alaska next year to see some snow. Super Ninos mean warm winters here. I remember back in winter 1997/98 in nyc, it was a disgusting winter w alotta sleet changing to rain and hardly any snow, very little if my mind serves me correct.

Nebraska folks look good next year for big snows.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

I might need to visit Alaska next year to see some snow. Super Ninos mean warm winters here. I remember back in winter 1997/98 in nyc, it was a disgusting winter w alotta sleet changing to rain and hardly any snow, very little if my mind serves me correct.

Nebraska folks look good next year for big snows.

The good thing about Michigan compared to the east coast is that unlike the east coast, it's impossible to get shut out/nearly shut out in the snow department regardless of what the ENSO is doing.  Detroit had 23.4" in 1997-98, which is certainly not good by Detroit standards, but it's a lot better than many areas on the east coast.  

When dealing with these winters where the ENSO state is hostile, it helps to shift the mindset going in.  It is what it is and it's not like we can control the outcome.  Assuming we get the very strong/super Nino, I'll be keeping my expectations in check and just hoping for a good stretch at some point, or at least a big storm.  Fortunately there is some precedent for big snowstorms around these parts in super Ninos.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The good thing about Michigan compared to the east coast is that unlike the east coast, it's impossible to get shut out/nearly shut out in the snow department regardless of what the ENSO is doing.  Detroit had 23.4" in 1997-98, which is certainly not good by Detroit standards, but it's a lot better than many areas on the east coast.  

When dealing with these winters where the ENSO state is hostile, it helps to shift the mindset going in.  It is what it is and it's not like we can control the outcome.  Assuming we get the very strong/super Nino, I'll be keeping my expectations in check and just hoping for a good stretch at some point, or at least a big storm.  Fortunately there is some precedent for big snowstorms around these parts in super Ninos.

Back in 1983, we got very lucky w this blizzard during a strong Nino year. This came outta nowhere....prior to the blizzard, we had sunny skies w temps in the 50s and 60s and then, that nite, frigid air arrived, along w a very potent storm system. All the ingredients needed came together for a major blizzard in the NYC area. The next day all hell broke loose and highs in the teens w whiteout conditions. Near a foot and a half buried the nyc area. more further east w near 2 feet.

 

[Andie]

A monster is forming in the Pacific Ocean.

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts has moved its probability of a Super El Niño forming by November 2026 to 100 percent. In March, that number was 22 percent. By late April, it was 80. Now it is certain.

A massive Kelvin wave, a pulse of anomalously warm water that has been building in the western Pacific, is now pushing eastward toward the surface. Subsurface temperatures in the top 300 metres of the tropical Pacific are already tracking warmer than the equivalent development stage of both the 1997-98 and 2015-16 super events. Central Pacific temperatures are projected to exceed 3°C above average by November, a level of oceanic heat not recorded since 1877.

What makes this worse is the baseline. Every previous Super El Niño formed on a cooler planet. This one is starting from a world already 1.2°C above pre-industrial temperatures. Any additional Pacific heat stacks on top. NOAA now gives an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July, strengthening through autumn, and persisting through winter 2026-27. 

The consequences span droughts, collapsed monsoons, amplified wildfire seasons and a likely breach of the 1.5°C warming guardrail.No

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Andie]

Batten Down the Hatches Friends. 
This looks rough. 
https://pogodnik.com/en/news/midwest-tornado-outbreak-2026-noaa-may-forecast

Get your plan and resources ready. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Clinton]

Eric Snodgrass on what he thinks about El Ninos effect will be on our weather this summer. 

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1G7MBPJ69G/

[Andie]

I’m all for a strong El Niño.   
The Texas aquifer needs replenishment.  

[gimmesnow]

So what's the deal with this? I mean it's CanSIPS but I would have thought a super nino would have winter be cancelled for us.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

So what's the deal with this? I mean it's CanSIPS but I would have thought a super nino would have winter be cancelled for us.

What's more unbelievable than that is what it has for DJF overall (and it's had this kind of look for multiple runs now).  This despite it also showing a super Nino.  There is no known precedent for a temp layout like this in a higher end strong/super Nino, so I continue to be skeptical.

Depending on how fast the Nino weakens along with some other factors, there's a possibility that parts of January or February could offer up something that resembles winter for us, but we'll see.  I would at least lean toward it being more likely to have a favorable stretch in that timeframe compared to December.  

[summerrules]

5 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

So what's the deal with this? I mean it's CanSIPS but I would have thought a super nino would have winter be cancelled for us.

Because it’s a garbage model that has a strong cold bias. I don’t really get why people put much weight into these ultra long-range forecasts, especially from such a useless model with a horrible track record. Look at how it was forecasting a cold spring this year for the East and Ohio River Valley, which ended up being a terrible bust. This was the second warmest spring on record with many cities that were in the blue with that atrocious cansips forecast recording top 5 warmest springs.

[summerrules]

On 5/3/2026 at 1:16 PM, Hoosier said:

They actually did change the scale on here now because of how extreme the output has been.

Really going to open people’s eyes this winter