Saw this elsewhere. I really can’t imagine this NOT becoming a super at this point.

For fun I took a look at the very strongest most recent El Nino winters (year 1900 or later) and Topeka snowfall.

I had to laugh to see the declining trend with time ?, but overall it appears (to no surprise) a strong El Nino by itself doesn't necessarily correlate to above or below average snowfall here. The annual average here is roughly 17", the four years below averaged 18.9".

 

With clear skies the overnight low here in my yard was 50. Today will be the 10 day in a row with no rainfall, The last time there was rainfall at Grand Rapids was on May 23^rd and 24^th when 1.36” fell over a two-day period.  Other than those two days the rest of May only had 0.49” of rainfall. With an omega block in place warm, dry weather will continue through Thursday. The will be a good chance of some showers and maybe a rumble of thunder on Friday and Saturday before sunny dry conditions return for Sunday.  Highs will mostly be in the 80’s maybe reaching the upper 80’s next week. Lows will mostly be near 60 to the low 60’s.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 77/45 there were 4 Heating Degree Days. There was no rainfall the wind was once again out of the E. I lost track as to how many days we have had a wind of the east this year so far. For today the average H/L is 77/55 the record high of 96 was in 1934 the coldest high of 48 was in 1945 the record low of 38 was in 1947,1977 and 1986. The most rainfall of 1.76” was in 1892. Last year the H/L was 87/54.

Some weather history for June 3^rd 1959, Thunderstorms in northwestern Kansas produced up to eighteen inches of hail near Salden during the early evening. Crops were completely destroyed, and total damage from the storm was about half a million dollars. Hail fell for a record eighty-five minutes. The temperature dropped from near 80 degrees prior to the storm to 38 degrees at the height of the storm. (David Ludlum) Here in Michigan 1945, An early June cold spell brought widespread frost and freezing temperatures from June 3rd to the 5th. The temperature bottomed out at 32 degrees at Grand Rapids on the morning of the 4th, a record for the coldest June temperature and the latest freeze.

 

In a nutshell, an El Niño means a cooler and wetter fall and winter season for Texas as warmer ocean waters impacts atmospheric conditions. Already, meteorologists and climatologists are forecasting a very strong El Niño beginning in late spring and lasting through the end of the year.
 

At least we’ll get rain.  We need it. 

Hey guys, done with my winter forecast for 2026-27.  Worked hard on it.

 

In all seriousness though, would be surprising if we don't see something resembling this in general.  

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hey guys, done with my winter forecast for 2026-27.  Worked hard on it.

 

In all seriousness though, would be surprising if we don't see something resembling this in general.  

What are you thinking for precipitation 

CPC forecast is a cool one.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CPC forecast is a cool one.

 

 

During a super/strong El Nino? I mean, anything is possible, right??!! ?

51 minutes ago, Niko said:

During a super/strong El Nino? I mean, anything is possible, right??!! ?

My forecast high for next Monday is 72.  I'll take it!

2 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

What are you thinking for precipitation 

I'd guess near to above average precip for many areas of the country.  Somewhat less confidence on that compared to temps though.  Ninos in general tend to be drier than average toward the Lakes, but that drier signal starts to fade in very strong Ninos.  Ohio Valley area may be more likely to come in drier than average though.  

El Nino vs the dry pattern. An interesting battle!

11 hours ago, Clinton said:

CPC forecast is a cool one.

 

 

Very typical summer pattern for a developing nino (and a super at that). Though am already seeing signs of the heat/ridge possibly sneaking back into the Midwest/East after the cooldown, during or perhaps just after week 2 or so. May even become a ROF pattern.

11 hours ago, Niko said:

During a super/strong El Nino? I mean, anything is possible, right??!! ?

Very normal for a developing nino. The warmth/heat we’ve been experiencing as of late is the one that’s unusual (running over a +4 departure here on the month to date). Regardless, Great start to summer around here, and just enough rain to keep things lush and green.

Really not convinced the Great Lakes sees a cool summer this year overall, despite the rapidly changing ENSO conditions.

3 hours ago, summerrules said:

Really not convinced the Great Lakes sees a cool summer this year overall, despite the rapidly changing ENSO conditions.

I've never really been convinced of a cool summer in the means, despite it happening a number of times when headed for a strong Nino.  Cooler periods at times, sure.  For our areas it seems like there are 2 buckets of summers in strong Nino years -- below average (sometimes quite significantly) and average/hair above average.  We seem to be much more likely to be headed toward the latter outcome.

On 6/9/2026 at 7:55 AM, summerrules said:

Very normal for a developing nino. The warmth/heat we’ve been experiencing as of late is the one that’s unusual (running over a +4 departure here on the month to date). Regardless, Great start to summer around here, and just enough rain to keep things lush and green.

Appreciate the info.

Also, I have been reading/hearing that this upcoming Nino could be one for the record books (historic). I think If i am not mistaken, since 1877??!! It looks to be a wild one weatherwise with this Nino in numerous places.

On 6/8/2026 at 9:54 PM, Clinton said:

My forecast high for next Monday is 72.  I'll take it!

I sign for that at any given moment this time of the year. I have highs possibly in the upper 60s next week, but warming right back up into the 70s and 80s, which is not too bad.

Today and tomorrow, my temps approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s w humidity levels rising as well. Big time storms possibly today and especially tomorrow and into the evening hours b4 finally drying out w less humid conditions and abundant sunshine.

8 minutes ago, Niko said:

Appreciate the info.

Also, I have been reading/hearing that this upcoming Nino could be one for the record books (historic). I think If i am not mistaken, since 1877??!! It looks to be a wild one weatherwise with this Nino in numerous places.

Yes, there's a legitimate chance that this becomes the strongest Nino on record.  

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, there's a legitimate chance that this becomes the strongest Nino on record.  

Crazy!

We’re looking at low mid 90’s with a 30 to 50% for rain.  We get rainy Junes with Niños on the coast.  
Hoping for a cooler wetter Summer. 
I can dream. 
 

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, there's a legitimate chance that this becomes the strongest Nino on record.  

This is going to reshape the global climate in ways we’ve never seen before. I think it’ll mark a historic turning point in global climate stability, and it’s very concerning. This may end up being the largest climate disruption this planet has ever experienced, and it’s happening in our lifetime. What a time to be alive.

On 4/22/2026 at 4:08 PM, gimmesnow said:

So we're going to cancel Winter for 26/27?

I mean we could still see a snowstorm, but by and large would expect this upcoming winter to be a complete blowtorch.

27 minutes ago, summerrules said:

This is going to reshape the global climate in ways we’ve never seen before. I think it’ll mark a historic turning point in global climate stability, and it’s very concerning. This may end up being the largest climate disruption this planet has ever experienced, and it’s happening in our lifetime. What a time to be alive.

I'm somewhere between "nothing to see here" and "the sky is falling."  It'll be interesting to watch the global temp response.  There probably will be lingering effects on the climate (more pronounced in some areas than others) even long after the Nino dissipates.

+7c waters. If the average temp is 65F, that's 78 degrees. And it can dip down to 55 in a Nina. all along the equator! Must be interesting underseas wildlife that has evolved there. 

No doubt they’re either seeking warmer waters or adapting. As these waters have done this for a millennia, they’re likely adapted in some way. 

This is going to mess up our baseline climate so bad, who knows what’ll happen.

^We've had more than 50% La Nina's since 1998 (RONI). The global temperature should actually be higher than it is. ENSO also "evens out" historically, so it's no surprise all those La Nina's are being reversed. I wouldn't be surprised of we veer more +ENSO for the next 5-7 years. You can all already see in the subsurface that a deep cold pool in the west is not occurring so far this year. 

New subsurface has +8C!

Only match to something that strong is 1997

7 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

New subsurface has +8C!

Here in the Great Lakes I would expect a cool summer early fall then a much warmer dryer winter.

On 6/20/2026 at 6:25 AM, westMJim said:

Here in the Great Lakes I would expect a cool summer early fall then a much warmer dryer winter.

doubtful

This is insane.  Every Euro plume has the ONI peaking over +3 (with some around or over +4), and even the rONI peaks over +2.5 on every plume.

This is going to be one of those times where even the average Joe knows that we're in an El Nino.  It's going to get so much attention.  

 

On 7/5/2026 at 5:27 PM, Hoosier said:

This is insane.  Every Euro plume has the ONI peaking over +3 (with some around or over +4), and even the rONI peaks over +2.5 on every plume.

This is going to be one of those times where even the average Joe knows that we're in an El Nino.  It's going to get so much attention.  

 

one member gets it to near 4.5 c. Again, what is this going to do to our baseline climate? This is legit concerning imo.

 

14 minutes ago, summerrules said:

one member gets it to near 4.5 c. Again, what is this going to do to our baseline climate? This is legit concerning imo.

 

No doubt it will leave us (the globe) warmer than we were before, it's really just a question of how much.

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

No doubt it will leave us (the globe) warmer than we were before, it's really just a question of how much.

Man and here I thought last winter was bad this one might be 10 times worse 

11 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Man and here I thought last winter was bad this one might be 10 times worse 

In general I think the winter is likely to suck for many of us, but it may not be completely devoid of some interesting stuff, especially as winter goes on.  Looking pretty likely to be dealing with a Nino of unprecedented strength (or at least nearly unprecedented strength in the more conservative scenario), and maybe there will be a positive curveball or two at some point.  The biggest snowstorm on record for Louisville, KY happened during a super Nino (1997-98) and there have been some other big snowstorms in super Nino years, at least for the Midwest/Northeast.  There should be an absolutely roided up subtropical jet with such an intense Nino, and while that will tend to focus the biggest precip anomalies down south and perhaps up the east coast, it's possible that it could also benefit other areas.

So not holding out hope for a long, sustained winter around here by any means, but maybe a more favorable stretch or two could unfold at some point (favored later in winter) or at least a good storm.   

This should be good for lake effect snow on the great lakes, right?

As always correct me if i'm wrong, but as a snow lover  I believe the silver lining with a strong nino is that nature needs balance and has often followed them up with multiple winters of below average cold and above average snow. This happened after the big nino of 97-98. Both 98-99 and 99-00 had good storms followed by longer cold snaps that allowed the snow to stick around for several weeks after. 

8 hours ago, gimmesnow said:

This should be good for lake effect snow on the great lakes, right?

In theory, yes.  A mild (or torch?) early winter would help keep lake temps up and then that could be taken advantage of once some colder airmasses arrive. 

Here is some interesting information on the upcoming winter with the expected very strong El Nino. I will just post the link and let you read it over as there is a lot there.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/early-forecast-data-el-nino-polar-vortex-disruption-united-states-canada-europe-winter-2026-2027