2026-27 ENSO: Return of El Nino?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Hoosier]

If we keep the -PDO even after the Nino gets to godzilla status, I'm gonna start to believe that the -PDO will never go away.

 

[SE Nebraska wx]

On 7/13/2026 at 1:21 PM, Hoosier said:

If we keep the -PDO even after the Nino gets to godzilla status, I'm gonna start to believe that the -PDO will never go away.

 

Man I got a bad feeling about this winter 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Man I got a bad feeling about this winter 

I don't have a good feeling about it either, but as a weather weenie, I am fascinated by what is unfolding.  At this point there really doesn't seem to be anything to stop this from becoming the strongest Nino on record, even surpassing 1877-78, and this -PDO just doesn't wanna quit.  

Perhaps the "stock" Nino composite will work out this winter, but I feel like something is going to deviate somehow... whether it be the southern US coming in warmer than expected, or wetter conditions extending over a much larger area than thought, etc.  We're headed into uncharted territory with this Nino, which inherently introduces more uncertainty and raises the chances of extreme results when we're essentially dealing with a 1 of 1 event.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I don't have a good feeling about it either, but as a weather weenie, I am fascinated by what is unfolding.  At this point there really doesn't seem to be anything to stop this from becoming the strongest Nino on record, even surpassing 1877-78, and this -PDO just doesn't wanna quit.  

Perhaps the "stock" Nino composite will work out this winter, but I feel like something is going to deviate somehow... whether it be the southern US coming in warmer than expected, or wetter conditions extending over a much larger area than thought, etc.  We're headed into uncharted territory with this Nino, which inherently introduces more uncertainty and raises the chances of extreme results when we're essentially dealing with a 1 of 1 event.  

I agree, throw the analogs out the window at this point. Being in Oregon I have a feeling this will be on the wetter end for Ninos here. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

27 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree, throw the analogs out the window at this point. Being in Oregon I have a feeling this will be on the wetter end for Ninos here. 

How do you think snowfall in the Rockies will be this year? Hoping its not like last year was 

[StormchaserChuck1]

59 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

How do you think snowfall in the Rockies will be this year? Hoping its not like last year was 

Warmest Winter in the Rockies on record are net cooler the following Winter

Kind of counter-intutive

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't have a good feeling about it either, but as a weather weenie, I am fascinated by what is unfolding.  At this point there really doesn't seem to be anything to stop this from becoming the strongest Nino on record, even surpassing 1877-78, and this -PDO just doesn't wanna quit.  

Perhaps the "stock" Nino composite will work out this winter, but I feel like something is going to deviate somehow... whether it be the southern US coming in warmer than expected, or wetter conditions extending over a much larger area than thought, etc.  We're headed into uncharted territory with this Nino, which inherently introduces more uncertainty and raises the chances of extreme results when we're essentially dealing with a 1 of 1 event.  

yeah pretty exciting. July will likely be the 6th consecutive month of -PNA (CPC). That is completely different from Strong Nino. -PDO actually seems more dominant right now. Will be interesting to see if it holds going forward with the Nino getting much stronger. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

30-day SOI is now the lowest in almost 30 years.. since 1997. That's real time stuff.

[luminen]

Wow what a scary El Niño. It's not just any old Niño but a SUPER DUPER SCARY MEGA NIÑO.

Yawn.

[Hoosier]

I've been thinking, is there any point in waiting until late Fall this year to put out a winter forecast?  I'd say maybe not, especially if you're in the northern 1/3 or southern 1/3 or so of the US where things are seemingly more cut and dry.  In the north, you go warmer than average and probably less snow than average, except maybe in some narrow zones (impossible to determine where) that get lucky with a synoptic snowstorm or two and can get closer to average snowfall.  In the south, you go wetter than average and probably snowier than average since snowfall averages there are so low and there's a good chance of hitting that in one storm.  Middle 1/3 or so of the country is probably trickiest.

Like for Chicago, I already know which direction I'm going for temps and snowfall as we sit here in July.  Maybe not the most scientific approach as one should always be open to new evidence, but I can't imagine what would come along to change my mind.  The more challenging thing (at least for me) is precip and just trying to put numbers on things, so maybe that is a reason to wait and see how the seasonal models look as we get closer.  But even then, the seasonal models can sometimes be too smoothed out or be off on the magnitude of anomalies.  

An interesting thing about this Nino is that it will be so darn strong that it will likely take a long time to weaken below the strong threshold.  It might take until late winter for it to drop below strong status.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I've been thinking, is there any point in waiting until late Fall this year to put out a winter forecast?  I'd say maybe not, especially if you're in the northern 1/3 or southern 1/3 or so of the US where things are seemingly more cut and dry.  In the north, you go warmer than average and probably less snow than average, except maybe in some narrow zones (impossible to determine where) that get lucky with a synoptic snowstorm or two and can get closer to average snowfall.  In the south, you go wetter than average and probably snowier than average since snowfall averages there are so low and there's a good chance of hitting that in one storm.  Middle 1/3 or so of the country is probably trickiest.

Like for Chicago, I already know which direction I'm going for temps and snowfall as we sit here in July.  Maybe not the most scientific approach as one should always be open to new evidence, but I can't imagine what would come along to change my mind.  The more challenging thing (at least for me) is precip and just trying to put numbers on things, so maybe that is a reason to wait and see how the seasonal models look as we get closer.  But even then, the seasonal models can sometimes be too smoothed out or be off on the magnitude of anomalies.  

An interesting thing about this Nino is that it will be so darn strong that it will likely take a long time to weaken below the strong threshold.  It might take until late winter for it to drop below strong status.  

What are you thinking for the Rockies?

[Hoosier]

28 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

What are you thinking for the Rockies?

Well, it would be hard to be as bad as last winter.

[StormchaserChuck1]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've been thinking, is there any point in waiting until late Fall this year to put out a winter forecast?  I'd say maybe not, especially if you're in the northern 1/3 or southern 1/3 or so of the US where things are seemingly more cut and dry.  In the north, you go warmer than average and probably less snow than average, except maybe in some narrow zones (impossible to determine where) that get lucky with a synoptic snowstorm or two and can get closer to average snowfall.  In the south, you go wetter than average and probably snowier than average since snowfall averages there are so low and there's a good chance of hitting that in one storm.  Middle 1/3 or so of the country is probably trickiest.

Like for Chicago, I already know which direction I'm going for temps and snowfall as we sit here in July.  Maybe not the most scientific approach as one should always be open to new evidence, but I can't imagine what would come along to change my mind.  The more challenging thing (at least for me) is precip and just trying to put numbers on things, so maybe that is a reason to wait and see how the seasonal models look as we get closer.  But even then, the seasonal models can sometimes be too smoothed out or be off on the magnitude of anomalies.  

An interesting thing about this Nino is that it will be so darn strong that it will likely take a long time to weaken below the strong threshold.  It might take until late winter for it to drop below strong status.  

Pacific has not established a Nino look yet however (negative 500mb or SLP). It's been 6 months of -PNA ongoing including July, which is not Nino-like. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Hoosier]

What else can you say about this event at this point?  We've never had an ONI of 3.0, let alone 4.0.  Even the rONI peaks around 3.5 on the latest runs.  

[Hoosier]

The -PDO just keeps rolling on.  Pretty crazy.  Would think it would at least tend toward neutral with time as this Nino continues to flex even more, but it has had remarkable staying power.

[summerrules]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

The -PDO just keeps rolling on.  Pretty crazy.  Would think it would at least tend toward neutral with time as this Nino continues to flex even more, but it has had remarkable staying power.

It’ll flip positive sometime during Oct-Nov

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, summerrules said:

It’ll flip positive sometime during Oct-Nov

Perhaps.  But considering the continual underestimation of it, I'd lean toward the slower side for a flip.

[StormchaserChuck1]

WSC PDO is also something like >+0.5 vs NOAA PDO

[SE Nebraska wx]

On 7/30/2026 at 10:13 PM, Hoosier said:

What else can you say about this event at this point?  We've never had an ONI of 3.0, let alone 4.0.  Even the rONI peaks around 3.5 on the latest runs.  

We're cooked this winter 

[SE Nebraska wx]

This winter will be worse than last. 

 

My God we are absolutely cooked. 

[Hoosier]

It's still way early, but if I had to put something out for Chicago right now, it would be something like this:

DJF temp anomaly:  +3 to +5

DJF precip anomaly:  -0.5 to +1.5

Snowfall (entire snow season):  24-32"

 

Chicago has had 5 consecutive winters with less snow than average, and a super Nino is about the most hostile regime possible for getting a snowier than average season (watch it happen this time, lol), so unfortunately for snow lovers, I would expect this to be #6 in a row.  On the "bright" side, so to speak, none of the strong/super Nino winters produced under 20" of snow.

I really don't see how it doesn't end up being a warmer than average winter in the mean.  It's mainly a question of how much warmer than average, imo.  With this expected to be a Nino of unprecedented strength in the recorded era, there is certainly some risk of it ending up even warmer than what I have.  But would point out that while there is a general correlation between Nino strength and temperatures, it's not a perfect correlation.  Thus it would not necessarily be correct to assume that the strongest Nino on record will automatically result in the warmest winter on record in the northern US.

As a weather enthusiast, it will be quite interesting and informative to watch this one unfold.  With this being a 1 of 1 type of El Nino event, do we just see an enhanced version of the strong/super Nino composite (i.e. extreme warmth in the north, extreme wetness in the south), or will there be some kind of unexpected outcome?  Time will tell.  

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It's still way early, but if I had to put something out for Chicago right now, it would be something like this:

DJF temp anomaly:  +3 to +5

DJF precip anomaly:  -0.5 to +1.5

Snowfall (entire snow season):  24-32"

 

Chicago has had 5 consecutive winters with less snow than average, and a super Nino is about the most hostile regime possible for getting a snowier than average season (watch it happen this time, lol), so unfortunately for snow lovers, I would expect this to be #6 in a row.  On the "bright" side, so to speak, none of the strong/super Nino winters produced under 20" of snow.

I really don't see how it doesn't end up being a warmer than average winter in the mean.  It's mainly a question of how much warmer than average, imo.  With this expected to be a Nino of unprecedented strength in the recorded era, there is certainly some risk of it ending up even warmer than what I have.  But would point out that while there is a general correlation between Nino strength and temperatures, it's not a perfect correlation.  Thus it would not necessarily be correct to assume that the strongest Nino on record will automatically result in the warmest winter on record in the northern US.

As a weather enthusiast, it will be quite interesting and informative to watch this one unfold.  With this being a 1 of 1 type of El Nino event, do we just see an enhanced version of the strong/super Nino composite (i.e. extreme warmth in the north, extreme wetness in the south), or will there be some kind of unexpected outcome?  Time will tell.  

I don't think the farmers almanac will age well but we can hope.

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't think the farmers almanac will age well but we can hope.

That outlook is so vague that it can be pretty easily spun into verifying.  Like for my region, "cold, snowy periods" is not really saying much.  Virtually every winter has that... it's just a question of duration/intensity.

[westMJim]

Here is a link to a update on the state of the ongoing El Nino.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/new-ocean-anomaly-super-el-nino-iod-strong-winter-2026-2027-pattern-forecast-united-states-canada-europe-fa/