1/23 to 1/25 Major Winter Storm for Southern Plains

[Black Hole]

Ensemble guidance is coming into good agreement that a cut off low will merge with a descending arctic trough allowing for a rare overlap with significant moisture and cold air the 23rd to 25th. The result will produce a wide variety of precipitation types and the potential for significant snow and ice. Share your thoughts here! 

[Black Hole]

@Andie you need to be watching this one for ice potential. It could be a big one. 

[Black Hole]

Most ensemble systems showing a mean of 2-4" for much of OK and KS (and eastwards) assuming a 10-1 ratio. Likely 15-1 ratio here would mean more like 2-6" mean. Some individual members show the potential for up to 20", although this remains very unlikely. 

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Ensemble guidance is coming into good agreement that a cut off low will merge with a descending arctic trough allowing for a rare overlap with significant moisture and cold air the 23rd to 25th. The result will produce a wide variety of precipitation types and the potential for significant snow and ice. Share your thoughts here! 

You've gotta be excited!  Big time snow plus cold.

[Black Hole]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

You've gotta be excited!  Big time snow plus cold.

I've had literally nothing to watch all year. I am so ready! Assuming a 15-1 ratio this would be incredible from the UKMET

[Tom]

This is one of those "once in a decade" storms from what I'm thinking will transpire...this season ya'll down south have been shut out until NOW....incredible turnaround from Mother Nature.  I hope you get hit Bigly  down there!

[Black Hole]

Here is the lift mechanism. A very broad lift along the isentropic levels will lift the warm moist air above the deep cold air. 

Saturation through the entire profile will support snow growth. The only limiting factor I see is that the mid levels are a bit warm so the actual snow growth zone isn't as deep as ideal. Still, with saturation going from the surface to 200 hPa and good mid level lapse rates (from 700 hPa up) this will support snow ratios between 10-1 and 15-1. 

[Black Hole]

For the southern and central plains mesoscale banding almost always picks the winners and losers. I assume there will be some of that here, but the broad slab like lifting above the arctic front mostly guarantees a share the wealth setup. So I expect at least some wintry precipitation from central Texas through southern Nebraska. 

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

For the southern and central plains mesoscale banding almost always picks the winners and losers. I assume there will be some of that here, but the broad slab like lifting above the arctic front mostly guarantees a share the wealth setup. So I expect at least some wintry precipitation from central Texas through southern Nebraska. 

I just hope to get a few inches at least.  Would love some snow on the ground with the artic airmass. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Im expecting 0.00

[MI Storm]

12 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

For the southern and central plains mesoscale banding almost always picks the winners and losers. I assume there will be some of that here, but the broad slab like lifting above the arctic front mostly guarantees a share the wealth setup. So I expect at least some wintry precipitation from central Texas through southern Nebraska. 

Looks like a great storm down that way. Hoping to get what we can up here on the northern edge. 

[Sumweatherdude]

4 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Im expecting 0.00

Me too honestly. It helps me cope.

[KTPmidMO]

The only thing I'm hanging on to right now it looks like are both the AI models, EuroAI and GFSAI, UKMET, and somewhat the ICON. They all bring good snows up into Missouri. 

Haven't the AI models performed better in the medium to long-range than the OP models?

[hawkstwelve]

Spire delivers a good hit for OK.

[Clinton]

AIGFS jumps south as it begins to get a better handle on the strength of the artic high.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Ice looks like a very real threat for cities like Dallas, Little Rock and Memphis.  That’s a lot of major cities in the early ice threat zone.

[MI Storm]

Texas ice storm big time on the GFS 

[Sumweatherdude]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

AIGFS jumps south as it begins to get a better handle on the strength of the artic high.

We’re not getting anything out of this one.  May have been our only shot this year. This is an exact repeat of February 2021. Except worse because at least then we got a couple inches.

but I will say this. I’d rather know now than have it targeting KC until Friday night and then barely missing us.  Life goes on.

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

The only thing I'm hanging on to right now it looks like are both the AI models, EuroAI and GFSAI, UKMET, and somewhat the ICON. They all bring good snows up into Missouri. 

Haven't the AI models performed better in the medium to long-range than the OP models?

Euro AI has been real good at times.  GFS AI I good for our area.

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

The only thing I'm hanging on to right now it looks like are both the AI models, EuroAI and GFSAI, UKMET, and somewhat the ICON. They all bring good snows up into Missouri. 

Haven't the AI models performed better in the medium to long-range than the OP models?

This will be an interesting test for the AI models.  We are all still learning how to use them and trying to figure out their strengths and weaknesses, but in this case we don't really have some exotic phasing setup that would tend to give the AI models some fits.  Although one could argue that cutoff lows give the models fits, lol.  So perhaps the AI ought to be incorporated to a decent extent.  I would be wary about their lighter qpf depiction on the northern edge though as that could easily be overdone/too broad-brushed.

[KTPmidMO]

The way the storm forms and plays out so far on the 12z GFS just looks odd to me. I mean its not even pushing east, its going straight south and it literally stretches from off the west coast of Mexico to off the east coast of Virginia. I dont know about anyone else but I dont think ive ever seen a storm do that.

I know the GFS has been terrible at this range this year soo...I dont know. 

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

@Andie you need to be watching this one for ice potential. It could be a big one. 

Wow. This is like pro-drag racing.  From zero to 80 in a few seconds!  
We are so needful for moisture.  I’ve been concerned for everything outside.  We need a deep soaking but anything is welcomed.  
I haven’t seen drought like this in ages and in winter it’s deadly to plants. 
I’ve already seen a tree the protects our house from idiots golfers loose one of its 2 trunks.  
Let’s hope this will start a trend.  

[Sumweatherdude]

Sheesh. The GFS even takes a lot of the wind out of the sails of the Oklahoma folks. still a real snow but nothing like the previous runs.  The GFS is so good at being the model that giveth and then taketh away.

[MI Storm]

Just now, Hoosier said:

This will be an interesting test for the AI models.  We are all still learning how to use them and trying to figure out their strengths and weaknesses, but in this case we don't really have some exotic phasing setup that would tend to give the AI models some fits.  So perhaps they ought to be incorporated to a decent extent.  I would be wary about their lighter qpf depiction on the northern edge though as that could easily be overdone/too broad-brushed.

Yup. Similar happened in the east the past few days. The OG models did move toward the AI models. The AI models were too loose with the cutoff. Going to likely be a tight cutoff on the northern edge. Especially the further east one goes. The dew point line is pretty good at showing this I’ve found. 

[KTPmidMO]

Also, the snowfall on the 12z GFS is NOT IMPRESSIVE for anyone until it gets to virginia, for a storm this size....

[Clinton]

CMC sith widespread snow.  Looks similar to the AI models. 

[MI Storm]

3 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Also, the snowfall on the 12z GFS is NOT IMPRESSIVE for anyone until it gets to virginia, for a storm this size....

I think it’s because it attempts to jump the energy to the coastal? It reforms along the coast. So the energy goes that way 

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

CMC sith widespread snow.  Looks similar to the AI models. 

See now that's what I'm talking about! And the way the storm forms and plays out on the CMC looks more normal and familiar to me. Not some straight south moving garbage of a storm the GFS displays. 

[KTPmidMO]

Just now, MI Storm said:

I think it’s because it attempts to jump the energy to the coastal? It reforms along the coast. So the energy goes that way 

But, does that really make any sense? A storm of this magnitude to do that? Just seems odd to me...

[mlgamer]

I started to throw in the towel for MBY on this one, but have decided to wait a while longer to monitor future trends.

[KTPmidMO]

I just dont trust the OP GFS at all right now. If it proves me wrong then so be it.

[Clinton]

53 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

For the southern and central plains mesoscale banding almost always picks the winners and losers. I assume there will be some of that here, but the broad slab like lifting above the arctic front mostly guarantees a share the wealth setup. So I expect at least some wintry precipitation from central Texas through southern Nebraska. 

The CMC kinda fits your thoughts and it's likely overdone and touch to far north.

[MI Storm]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

But, does that really make any sense? A storm of this magnitude to do that? Just seems odd to me...

I don’t think so. I’m no expert, but the GFS is probably too weak with the advection snows. It does have a tendency to do that. This feels like last January's big storm 50-100 miles further south. Has always felt like a 1-2 / 2-4 kind of deal for I-70 to me. Joplin / Springfield might be the jackpot. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

I just dont trust the OP GFS at all right now. If it proves me wrong then so be it.

I think the AI models and the CMC are likely closer than the GFS atm.

[KTPmidMO]

FWIW..

[MI Storm]

UK s great for OK. North edge is about 50 miles south of I-70

[KTPmidMO]

GEFS looks to be coming in further north so far. Not a big jump but noticeable. 

[Tom]

12z UKIE...

[Tom]

It's way to far out to even suggest, but the Banana Nature to the HP can deliver a consolation prize for NE IL/SE WI as winds turn off the Lake.  BOTH the CMC/UKIE are showing this set up...

 

[KTPmidMO]

I really like Chad from Hyperlocal. He is a no bullshit kind of guy and doesn't get ahead of himself or put things out there for click bait. He has a VERY good track record. I rely on what he says alot. This is something he just put out a bit ago.