1/23 to 1/25 Major Winter Storm for Southern Plains

[MI Storm]

15 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

GEFS looks to be coming in further north so far. Not a big jump but noticeable. 

It is. Though it appears that it's a couple of members that are likely altering the mean. 

[KTPmidMO]

3 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

It is. Though it appears that it's a couple of members that are likely altering the mean. 

Can you post the members here please?

[MI Storm]

4 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Can you post the members here please?

I wish I could. I'm bad at posting. I'd love to see the indies also. Pivital it gives that combo map.

[mlgamer]

12z GEFS members. Maybe someone will post something better, but here is a southern plains view and a central plains view.

 

[Clinton]

Sizable shift north with the Canadian ensemble mean.

12z run

Last night's run

12z members 

[Sumweatherdude]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Sizable shift north with the Canadian ensemble mean.

12z run

Last night's run

12z members 

Interesting. Usually the Canadian has the cold bias. I would’ve thought that would push it even further south. And wasn’t it the furthest south a couple days ago?

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Interesting. Usually the Canadian has the cold bias. I would’ve thought that would push it even further south. And wasn’t it the furthest south a couple days ago?

It was way south last night. 

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro AI has good snows for many as snow shield expanded north while the heaviest snow went further south.  Pounds Tulsa.  No Kuchera available. 

[MMike]

14 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro AI has good snows for many as snow shield expanded north while the heaviest snow went further south.  Pounds Tulsa.  No Kuchera available. 

We're in it, for now. Don't just give us the cold with no gold. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro AI has good snows for many as snow shield expanded north while the heaviest snow went further south.  Pounds Tulsa.  No Kuchera available. 

Id take that 

[Black Hole]

ECMWF destroys OK with up to 20" or so to my south. Looks like about 12" at my place. Insane!

[MI Storm]

2 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

ECMWF destroys OK with up to 20" or so to my south. Looks like about 12" at my place. Insane!

Great run! Northern edge was a bit north as well. Euro and CMC are the middle ground between the GFS and AI models. You are in a great spot 

[MI Storm]

Euro is an epic ice storm for Dallas. Lots of freezing rain 

[Doinko]

What's the ice potential like for Austin? Think we're a bit too far south but wondering if it could affect us. Not used to tracking winter weather east of the Rockies yet!

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the ice potential like for Austin? Think we're a bit too far south but wondering if it could affect us. Not used to tracking winter weather east of the Rockies yet!

Looks like you could see some.

[mlgamer]

NWS TOP afternoon AFD laid out the two main scenarios pretty well and is an interesting read:
 

"While there is high confidence in the cold, there is much more uncertainty with snow potential. To the south of the main upper low, an upper shortwave over the Southwest will move eastward Friday into Saturday. How much (if any) snow we receive will be heavily dependent on how far the north the system can lift.

If the northern stream upper is stronger and farther southeast, this would tend to keep the southern stream shortwave weaker and more positively tilted, perhaps even cutting some of the shortwave off over California. At the surface, this would result in a farther south track and little to no snowfall for northeast Kansas.

On the other hand, if the upper low can stay farther northwest and lift the southern stream shortwave into more of a neutral tilt, the system would have more room to deepen and move north. This would be the preferred scenario to get a moderate high-ratio snow across northeast Kansas.

How likely is each scenario? Right now about 2/3 of ensemble guidance is more supportive of the drier scenario, with the other 1/3 closer to the snowier scenario. Both seem physically reasonable solutions, so leaning towards the former given the probabilities. Interestingly though, the AI versions of both the GFS and Euro have been stronger and farther north compared to their regular versions, but have both trended a bit south with the latest 12z run.

Regardless, there is still plenty of spread at 108 hours out, so plenty of time to see how things trend over the next several days."

[Black Hole]

57 minutes ago, Doinko said:

What's the ice potential like for Austin? Think we're a bit too far south but wondering if it could affect us. Not used to tracking winter weather east of the Rockies yet!

These fronts run further south than models think, especially with how dense this one is. Ice is very possible. 

[Black Hole]

The remaining uncertainty in a nutshell. It's all going to come down to the trough-trough merger. Too little like the ICON and its a non event (less likely). A more complete and early merger sends the snows more north into KS. The ECMWF is the sweet spot for max snow/ice because it delays sending the moist upglide east. It probably represents close to the ceiling of what could happen. There is some minor flexibility for that sweet spot to shift north or south a bit but not by much. 

But this isn't the type of storm we typically think about for trending north or south. The low will be in the gulf. This is all about maximizing moist upglide, with some help from upper level divergence. We don't have to worry too much about dry air working in because there is no strong low. Mesoscale banding will be less for the same reasons. 

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro AI has good snows for many as snow shield expanded north while the heaviest snow went further south.  Pounds Tulsa.  No Kuchera available. 

Some of that lighter snow on the northern end is from other systems so here is a panel during the storm.  The AIFS gets the precip quite far north but as I said earlier, I'd be very cautious about it being overdone with lighter qpf on the northern fringes.  

[Black Hole]

18z ICON remains a non event. GFS is similar with 2-4" here but focuses well south. AI GFS went further south, but is around 3-6" most likely. No change with any of that. Will be interesting to see the AIFS and 18z ECMWF.

[KTPmidMO]

LOL the 18z GFS is garbage yet again but with about half the snow of the 12z. I am throwing that model out the window completely. I feel like the GFS has been terrible lately. 

[MI Storm]

GFS keeps trying to jump the low to the coast. The models were very erratic this past weekend in the northeast but the AI models were closer. The GFS/ Icon are outliers for now. They maybe correct but I’d venture the overrunning will be better at least through OK / AR. The GFS has a tendency to jump lows and has for years.

[MI Storm]

AI GFS is south but not like the regular GFS. It’s basically a carbon copy of the 12z Euro and CMC. It doesn’t jump the low. Good storm for OK and AR. Light event along I-70. .10 is along I-36 in MO. 

[Clinton]

18z AIFS is further south in Kansas and Missouri. 

 

 

[Clinton]

18z Euro looks great again for Oklahoma but is drying up for the I-70 corridor. Bummer!

[Black Hole]

18z ECMWF more spread out. Still heavy for my area.

[Black Hole]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro looks great again for Oklahoma but is drying up for the I-70 corridor. Bummer!

Warm advection usually ends up a bit north of where models have it. 

[MI Storm]

1 minute ago, Black Hole said:

Warm advection usually ends up a bit north of where models have it. 

You can see that on the initial surge up into KS. Then it fades as the low nice east. This makes way more sense than the GFS. Even if we get blanked up here. This is a fascinating storm. This reminds me a lot of last early Januarys storm. Just further south. That pressure gradient is going to kick up some nice winds. 

[MI Storm]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro looks great again for Oklahoma but is drying up for the I-70 corridor. Bummer!

Nice band for @SE Nebraska wx.  

[hawkstwelve]

Interesting trends on the ICON. I'm choosing to not believe it for the tomorrow/Wednesday systems because it shows nothing here but I'll choose to believe it for this one because it does show something.

Nothing like wish casting! That always works out, right?

[hawkstwelve]

GFS remains pretty far south but got much stronger on snow totals than previous runs.

[Clinton]

CMC is very snowy and not as flat with the track get a little snow into the Midwest. It is an outlier as of now.

[hawkstwelve]

20 minutes ago, Clinton said:

CMC is very snowy and not as flat with the track get a little snow into the Midwest. It is an outlier as of now.

Interestingly, it more closely resembles the 00z ICON than it does the GFS. The ICON isn't nearly as heavy overall but the trajectory and coverage is vaguely similar.

[Clinton]

GEFS ensemble mean

 

[Black Hole]

Ukmet about 9" of snow here with a 10-1 ratio. Decent swath of snow like the cmc. 

[hawkstwelve]

00z AIFS looks more like the GFS than the ICON/CMC.

[Hoosier]

00z Euro even drops a decent snow here, helped out by very good ratios.

[Hoosier]

Here's the 00z Euro 24 hour snowfall totals valid at various times.  No overlapping times on these maps so just add them up if necessary.  Posting it this way to avoid any contamination from earlier snows (especially north).

[SE Nebraska wx]

Ill take it and be happy

[Grizzcoat]

That's a big change on the Euro from 12Z