1/23 to 1/25 Major Winter Storm for Southern Plains

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's the 00z Euro 24 hour snowfall totals valid at various times.  No overlapping times on these maps so just add them up if necessary.  Posting it this way to avoid any contamination from earlier snows (especially north).

I was hoping something like this would happen.  Great to see it lift into the Midwest.  Share the wealth!

[Clinton]

6z Euro is a little weaker and further south vs 0z but still gets some snow into the Midwest. 

[Clinton]

AIFS not like the Euro 

GFS 

[Tom]

This is the BIG DOG our SUB has been waiting for and quite honestly I had on my calendar for quite some time. I'm thrilled to see our southern members cashing in on what will be a Historic Winter Storm.  While its still kinda early in the game to see if CHI gets hit with some snow, it will all depend on how much upper level energy gets pulled north and if the Lake can pull some moisture off of it and I hope the HP can play ball and veer winds off the Lake.  Needless to say, its going to be fascinating watching the model runs come in over the coming days.

 

[Clinton]

Spire model with some changes from its previous run. 

Current:

Previous:

[Clinton]

The latest from the WPC 

[Thunder98]

WU has Anderson, SC with highs in the 20s with Freezing rain on Sunday. Incredible

[Thunder98]

WU has Bowling Green, KY with over 10 inches of snow this weekend! They average 9.1 inches annually.

[Niko]

Looks like the big cities on the EC  will get quite a bit of snow. Already in the forecast showing near 10" for NYC. Still early in the game for changes.

[KTPmidMO]

12z ICON huge difference compared to its 00z run last night.

 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

12z ICON huge difference compared to its 00z run last night.

 

We are starting to see better phasing and the storm being lifted further north.

[Sumweatherdude]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

We are starting to see better phasing and the storm being lifted further north.

First, Go Hoosiers!!  My law school alma mater.  They weren't much more than a high school team when I went there.  

I know the trend is usually your friend, but I fear we're right in that window where the models have a few runs that are different than the past 72 hours, and then revert back to where they were.  12z GFS just now coming out. If it trends north (even if not all the way to KC), I might put a little more stock in the trends.  But for now, I'm still going to assume this mostly misses us.  As I mentioned on 1/13, those teleconnections were screaming suppression.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

 

 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

First, Go Hoosiers!!  My law school alma mater.  They weren't much more than a high school team when I went there.  

I know the trend is usually your friend, but I fear we're right in that window where the models have a few runs that are different than the past 72 hours, and then revert back to where they were.  12z GFS just now coming out. If it trends north (even if not all the way to KC), I might put a little more stock in the trends.  But for now, I'm still going to assume this mostly misses us.  As I mentioned on 1/13, those teleconnections were screaming suppression.  

I don't believe KC or my place will get the heaviest snow.  I do believe there is potential for 3 or 4 inches of snow.

[Clinton]

The GFS isn't as strong with the HP as the Euro thus the trough doesn't get pushed far enough south to pick up the storm and phase it .  Precip gets strung out and stays south.

[Sumweatherdude]

9 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I don't believe KC or my place will get the heaviest snow.  I do believe there is potential for 3 or 4 inches of snow.

12z icon trended south. 

 

Just now, Clinton said:

The GFS isn't as strong with the HP as the Euro thus the trough doesn't get pushed far enough south to pick up the storm and phase it .  Precip gets strung out and stays south.

Icon trended south as well.  Could very well be a winter where northern Mississippi gets more snow than KC (only half joking).  Oh well.  I'll start looking further ahead for signs of hope.    

[SE Nebraska wx]

Oof

 

[Clinton]

12z Canadian gets snow up to the lower lakes. Similar to 0z Euro 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Looks like the big cities on the EC  will get quite a bit of snow. Already in the forecast showing near 10" for NYC. Still early in the game for changes.

Might be better to be in Philly or especially DC.  Still very early though.

[SE Nebraska wx]

They don't deserve it

[MI Storm]

Feels like we’re going to ride the edge up here, hoping for 1-2 inches of Artic powder. The air is very dry though. Could be a lot of virga. 

[MI Storm]

Epic storm on the Euro. Is about 1-2 inches in KC with ratios, but has the huge TX ice storm into a coadtal. It Euro AI have been pretty consistant. Though this run doesnt have the pull northeast though IL. Euro crushes @Black Hole

[Clinton]

12z Euro 

AIFS 

[Clinton]

12z EPS 

[Clinton]

EPS ensembles 

[MI Storm]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPS ensembles 

Lot of disagreement on the northern edge. Seems like the general consenus is pretty close to the operational. 

[KTPmidMO]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

EPS ensembles 

Well, there are still a good amount of members that give me a good hit here. Just need to hope for that 200 mile shift...fingers crossed. 

[mlgamer]

1 minute ago, KTPmidMO said:

Well, there are still a good amount of members that give me a good hit here. Just need to hope for that 200 mile shift...fingers crossed. 

Was just about to say the same thing. At least half are decently good hits for me...even at showing 10:1 ratios.

[Clinton]

8 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Well, there are still a good amount of members that give me a good hit here. Just need to hope for that 200 mile shift...fingers crossed. 

 

6 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Was just about to say the same thing. At least half are decently good hits for me...even at showing 10:1 ratios.

We're not gonna get a 200 mile shift but a better lifted system is possible.  Some Canadian ensemble members give us some good hits also.

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

 

We're not gonna get a 200 mile shift but a better lifted system is possible.  Some Canadian ensemble members give us some good hits also.

Yeah I would say you are probably right but I've seen it before because I've had it happen to me(more recently in the past few years than I care to remember) and I don't necessarily believe it is out of the question. Especially with the system being a dynamic one, with its phasing being kind of up in the air at this point and were also not sure how strong that high pressure will be. I did some looking and research and found that the typical track error at 100 hours out for synoptic-scale systems(mid-latitude lows, winter storms) are as follows:

• Average error: 150–300 miles

• Not uncommon shifts: 100–200 miles

• High-end busts: 300–500+ miles (less common, but still possible)
  
  So there is a chance, and that's all I need to try to keep some hope. Even if it maybe is foolish.. lol

[Wheezer]

Those ensemble maps are 10-1, so those amounts for the upper half of precip shield where it will be 10-15 degrees are going to be 15-1, 20-1, 

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Might be better to be in Philly or especially DC.  Still very early though.

Yes..I think they might be jackpot areas....especially DC Metro. Definitely early in the game, so who knows. This will be fun tracking in the coming days, no doubt. One thing is for sure, this will be a frigid snowstorm for them as highs during the event will be in the teens.

[Niko]

WOW! There must be some really hvy sleet mix in here for these amounts to be this insane...

[Clinton]

Looks like blackhole and Andi have a winter storm watch. 

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks like blackhole and andi have a winter storm watch. 

Hey bud..ya wanna laugh now? For a minute, I thought you wrote ("and I" ..as if you were in the WSW) so, I was trying to see where you see that because your pl does not have that blue color "WSW"  Then, I realize you meant one of our members on here from Texas andi. 

[MI Storm]

35 minutes ago, Niko said:

Yes..I think they might be jackpot areas....especially DC Metro. Definitely early in the game, so who knows. This will be fun tracking in the coming days, no doubt. One thing is for sure, this will be a frigid snowstorm for them as highs during the event will be in the teens.

From experience living in NJ. These cold overrunning / coastals love to target the Delmarva, Jersey shore and eastern LI. Sometimes Cape Cod. It will probably be a solid storm along I-95, but often the best snows are southeast of the cities when you have this much cold press. 

[Niko]

1 minute ago, MI Storm said:

From experience living in NJ. These cold overrunning / coastals love to target the Delmarva, Jersey shore and eastern LI. Sometimes Cape Cod. It will probably be a solid storm along I-95, but often the best snows are southeast of the cities when you have this much cold press. 

Tbh.....someone on the i-95 corridor will get walloped. 12"+.....but where is the big question?! Latest runs keep the hvy snows south of the big cities, but still get some accumulating snows. Very tough forecast coming up.

[MI Storm]

Regular GFS still way south. AI GFS with a slight bump north. Looks more like the other models. 

[MMike]

4 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Regular GFS still way south. AI GFS with a slight bump north. Looks more like the other models. 

Shoot, we have the Canadian model and the Euro still trying to get us a few inches of gold. ICON kind of trended back north..

NAM at 84 hours looked like it had a growing area of snow heading east, northeast. 
 

Clinton will post that EURO 18z when it comes out…let’s see if any trends come from that. 

Oz data tonight and 12z data tomorrow might be our last hope for a trend north just enough to give us a snowy period. 

[KTPmidMO]

Goodness, its snows so long on the GFS in Arkansas. Its roughly 48 hours straight of snow in Central Arkansas. lol

Here's the difference between 12z and 18z... Big shift north on 18z compared to 12z...