1/23 to 1/25 Major Winter Storm for Southern Plains

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Goodness, its snows so long on the GFS in Arkansas. Its roughly 48 hours straight of snow in Central Arkansas. lol

Here's the difference between 12z and 18z... Big shift north on 18z compared to 12z...

 

What a crippler that would be down south.

[Niko]

TWC

Snows even reach S MI...wow. Models expect this to move north? Far cry from yesterday.

[Sumweatherdude]

54 minutes ago, MMike said:

Shoot, we have the Canadian model and the Euro still trying to get us a few inches of gold. ICON kind of trended back north..

NAM at 84 hours looked like it had a growing area of snow heading east, northeast. 
 

Clinton will post that EURO 18z when it comes out…let’s see if any trends come from that. 

Oz data tonight and 12z data tomorrow might be our last hope for a trend north just enough to give us a snowy period. 

[Niko]

The SE will be in big trouble if this verifies. 

[Clinton]

18z Euro AI with a bump north.  10:1 map would indicate 2-4 inches for the KC area with the higher ratios that are expected. 

[MI Storm]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

Tbh.....someone on the i-95 corridor will get walloped. 12"+.....but where is the big question?! Latest runs keep the hvy snows south of the big cities, but still get some accumulating snows. Very tough forecast coming up.

The area that gets the overrunning into the costal will get slammed. A educated guess but DC/Baltimore is in a great spot. Just seeing these over the years. Each storm is different. NYC and especially Philly should will do well. Boston is tricky because of the blocking and the fact they will likely miss the WAA snows. These southern reformer storms tend to have a nice band on the edge and little north of the cutoff. NYC is a very tricky forecast for sure. 

[Clinton]

18z Euro with a substantial improvement for KC and some snow up into the Lower Lakes.  @MI Storm  

[Clinton]

18z Euro 

[Niko]

3 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

The area that gets the overrunning into the costal will get slammed. A educated guess but DC/Baltimore is in a great spot. Just seeing these over the years. Each storm is different. NYC and especially Philly should will do well. Boston is tricky because of the blocking and the fact they will likely miss the WAA snows. These southern reformer storms tend to have a nice band on the edge and little north of the cutoff. NYC is a very tricky forecast for sure. 

How long have ya lived in NJ and where abouts? I usually go to NJ sometimes when I am in NYC to visit friends and family. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Im sure dry air will kill the northern edge of this lile that storm that nailed KC and whiffed Nebraska did last January 

[MI Storm]

7 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro 

That NE push is a sight to see! 

[MMike]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro with a substantial improvement for KC and some snow up into the Lower Lakes.  @MI Storm  

OMG! Trend starter! Only Tuesday…

Big jump on this run

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 minute ago, MI Storm said:

That NE push is a sight to see! 

It is but dry air from the arctic high is concerning 

[SE Nebraska wx]

4 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Yeah I’m still pretty pessimistic even for this area. I do think we get done light snow but it will be fighting very dry air. They said no complaints if they are right lol. Part of the fun. 

If I get a few inches ill be happy. Its sad how low my bar is lately 

[Black Hole]

18z models all range from good to historic. I see ECMWF still hanging around a foot here with a strong increase in the AIFS on the northern end. That is with a 10-1 ratio too.

The main trend seems to be increasing the precip late Saturday into Sunday morning when ratios will exceed 15-1. I put out 5-10" on my public forecast earlier for Tulsa, but in reality if current guidance holds it'll be 8-14". 

[MI Storm]

15 minutes ago, Niko said:

How long have ya lived in NJ and where abouts? I usually go to NJ sometimes when I am in NYC to visit friends and family. 

Chatham NJ. Near Morristown. 20 miles west NYC. Lived there from Birth in 1992 till 2019 when I took an education job in KC. Sans 4 years of college in Boston 2011-2015. 

[MI Storm]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

18z models all range from good to historic. I see ECMWF still hanging around a foot here with a strong increase in the AIFS on the northern end. That is with a 10-1 ratio too.

The main trend seems to be increasing the precip late Saturday into Sunday morning when ratios will exceed 15-1. I put out 5-10" on my public forecast earlier for Tulsa, but in reality if current guidance holds it'll be 8-14". 

Going to be epic there! 

[KTPmidMO]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z Euro with a substantial improvement for KC and some snow up into the Lower Lakes.  @MI Storm  

Thats what i'm talking about!!! Let's go!

[SE Nebraska wx]

7 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

18z models all range from good to historic. I see ECMWF still hanging around a foot here with a strong increase in the AIFS on the northern end. That is with a 10-1 ratio too.

The main trend seems to be increasing the precip late Saturday into Sunday morning when ratios will exceed 15-1. I put out 5-10" on my public forecast earlier for Tulsa, but in reality if current guidance holds it'll be 8-14". 

Nice to see snow in the rockies 

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

18z models all range from good to historic. I see ECMWF still hanging around a foot here with a strong increase in the AIFS on the northern end. That is with a 10-1 ratio too.

The main trend seems to be increasing the precip late Saturday into Sunday morning when ratios will exceed 15-1. I put out 5-10" on my public forecast earlier for Tulsa, but in reality if current guidance holds it'll be 8-14". 

Incredible!  It's going to be a beautiful seen.  I wish I was down there staying at lake euphala watching it.

[Clinton]

18z EPS ensemble mean shows a bump north and a significant improvement of the mean for Kansas and Missouri.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

50-75 more miles please. 

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

50-75 more miles please. 

There're several ensembles that give you a nice snow.  I'm rooting for you. 

[Stacsh]

Models won’t have a clue for 2 days yet.  That arctic push is generational.  Something is way off.   8 degrees in southern Ohio and heavy snow.   I don’t buy it on the Euro.  

[MI Storm]

39 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

50-75 more miles please. 

EPS member #2 for you!

[Niko]

 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

 

It was pretty close to the Euro.  You may scratch something out of this.

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It was pretty close to the Euro.  You may scratch something out of this.

The good thing is that its still Tuesday evening, so we are almost 4 to 5 days out which gives plenty of time for adjustments. 

[KTPmidMO]

Final frame of the 00z Nam..

 

[gimmesnow]

This is what I get for fixing my snowmobile lmfao.

[Hoosier]

fwiw, there are going to be special reconnaissance flights over the Pacific tomorrow (and possibly Thursday) to gather extra data that will be ingested into the models for this upcoming storm.  Kind of like what you see for a hurricane.  

[Andie]

Well, It appears to be freezing rain Saturday and turning to Snow Sunday for DFW. 
As bad for driving it can get.  
We’ll barely get over freezing Monday.  34*

Lows will see 12* Rising to 16* by Monday.

[Clinton]

15 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

fwiw, there are going to be special reconnaissance flights over the Pacific tomorrow (and possibly Thursday) to gather extra data that will be ingested into the models for this upcoming storm.  Kind of like what you see for a hurricane.  

Do you know how often they do that?

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Do you know how often they do that?

It doesn't happen often.  Usually takes a big ticket item affecting a large area, like this.  

[Clinton]

Big jump north on the 0z GFS. 

 

[KTPmidMO]

Another big shift north on 00z GFS compared to 18z. HUGE shift compared to 12z today.

12z, 18z, 00z..

[OttumwaSnomow]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Big jump north on the 0z GFS. 

 

Collapsing to king euro..

[Clinton]

0z CMC 

[Clinton]

1 minute ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Collapsing to king euro..

Looks like it.  I'm ready for some snow!

[KTPmidMO]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Looks like it.  I'm ready for some snow!

Me too! Sign me up! Be interesting to see if the Euro follows suit with the rest of the 00z suite and pushes even further north than it did on the 18z.