February 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Niko]

OK, so I was excited to start this thread a little early because signs are pointing to a very rough month with lots of snow & bitter cold to continue for some/most on here. February will mean business and honestly, it could be a colder/snowier month than January. Potential is there for some "Big Dogs." Lets discuss.....

[StormchaserChuck1]

AO is tanked. Sustained cold. 

[Niko]

Already, models are showing something huge for next weekend, but where does it go. As for now eyeing the EC (possibly) w a crushing blow at cities from DC-Bos. Can we get this inland and wallop the Midwest instead, this time?! Hopefully, models trend that way.

[Hoosier]

The canonical Nina February might not be walking through the door this year.  Time will tell.  

[Tony]

Latest runs show pretty much nothing for the Midwest outside of some LES potential. Not looking good unless you like cold and no snow.

[Black Hole]

For February my guess is roughly Feb 13 to 25 is our prime window for another storm in the southern Plains. But we will see. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The canonical Nina February might not be walking through the door this year.  Time will tell.  

Looks pretty boring. Hoping the Rockies at least do alright but I have my doubts. These ski trips I have planned feel more like a chore at this point. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Best odds here are from 2/10ish to 2/25ish

[Hoosier]

8 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Looks pretty boring. Hoping the Rockies at least do alright but I have my doubts. These ski trips I have planned feel more like a chore at this point. 

I do have some hope as February goes on.  But by my canonical Nina post, I meant that the east may do better than what you'd expect in a Nina February.  Hopefully the central US also gets some nice action.

[OttumwaSnomow]

2 hours ago, Niko said:

OK, so I was excited to start this thread a little early because signs are pointing to a very rough month with lots of snow & bitter cold to continue for some/most on here. February will mean business and honestly, it could be a colder/snowier month than January. Potential is there for some "Big Dogs." Lets discuss.....

I have 1.2" in Jan. And 1.2" since Dec 15th. It wont take much of a Feb to be snowier lol!!! I keep hearing all these comparisions to Jan/Feb 2014 really? Here in SE we had  18 plowable systems the winter of 13/14 and literally two this season and 1 of those was  under 2 inches.

[Niko]

It literally blows my mind seeing not only the Canadian, but the Euro too bringing a massive blizzard on the EC. Euro absolutely crushes the big cities w a bomb cyclogenesis. Timeline would be Sat-Sun. Man, hoping we can steal this storm from them.

[Hoosier]

52 minutes ago, Niko said:

It literally blows my mind seeing not only the Canadian, but the Euro too bringing a massive blizzard on the EC. Euro absolutely crushes the big cities w a bomb cyclogenesis. Timeline would be Sat-Sun. Man, hoping we can steal this storm from them.

I see very little chance of it coming far enough west for us.  It's not even a done deal that it comes far enough west to be big for DC-Boston. 

[MI Storm]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I see very little chance of it coming far enough west for us.  It's not even a done deal that it comes far enough west to be big for DC-Boston. 

Agree. This feels like a storm I lived off of going to college in Boston 2011-2015. These ocean bombs love to target Long Island and coastal MA. Follow the gulf steam and pass east of the 40/70 benchmark. Sometimes NYC can salvage a good event off them. Given the trough position and the historical vibe of systems like these. LI/Boston has the best shot imo. It probably bombs out a little further north than it is now. These love to come west only to tick east the last 36 hours. 

[Niko]

21 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Agree. This feels like a storm I lived off of going to college in Boston 2011-2015. These ocean bombs love to target Long Island and coastal MA. Follow the gulf steam and pass east of the 40/70 benchmark. Sometimes NYC can salvage a good event off them. Given the trough position and the historical vibe of systems like these. LI/Boston has the best shot imo. It probably bombs out a little further north than it is now. These love to come west only to tick east the last 36 hours. 

I've lived in nyc all my life and have also experienced very similar big dog storms like the possible upcoming event. This one needs to be watched. Kinda reminds me the Blizzard of 96. Has same characteristics. Cant wait to see what happens. Already snow accumulations are in their forecasts w the wording (Watching the potential for a winterstorm.") and its only Monday. Crazy!

With this type of event and track, all coastal cities look to get buried from DC-BOS, if verified by the Euro and the Canadian (EURO being a disaster). No mixing! All out blizzard! or it can go out to sea. LOL.

Do you remember this one? March of 2001, they were predicting 2-3 feet of snow for nyc (Monster Storm) and NJ L.I and other cities nearby. Last second, it didnt happened. We did end up though w 6" in the Big Apple. There were a lotta pissed off New Yorker's then because people had shut down their business and etc...that was a bad bust.

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Agree. This feels like a storm I lived off of going to college in Boston 2011-2015. These ocean bombs love to target Long Island and coastal MA. Follow the gulf steam and pass east of the 40/70 benchmark. Sometimes NYC can salvage a good event off them. Given the trough position and the historical vibe of systems like these. LI/Boston has the best shot imo. It probably bombs out a little further north than it is now. These love to come west only to tick east the last 36 hours. 

Totally agree about Long Island and Boston having the best shot.

[Hoosier]

18 minutes ago, Niko said:

I've lived in nyc all my life and have also experienced very similar big dog storms like the possible upcoming event. This one needs to be watched. Kinda reminds me the Blizzard of 96. Has same characteristics. Cant wait to see what happens. Already snow accumulations are in their forecasts w the wording (Watching the potential for a winterstorm.") and its only Monday. Crazy!

With this type of event and track, all coastal cities look to get buried from DC-BOS, if verified by the Euro and the Canadian (EURO being a disaster). No mixing! All out blizzard! or it can go out to sea. LOL.

Do you remember this one? March of 2001, they were predicting 2-3 feet of snow for nyc (Monster Storm) and NJ L.I and other cities nearby. Last second, it didnt happened. We did end up though w 6" in the Big Apple. There were a lotta pissed off New Yorker's then because people had shut down their business and etc...that was a bad bust.

Newer runs of the Euro are kind of a graze job for DC up to NYC.  The 00z Euro was very good though.

[SE Nebraska wx]

44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Newer runs of the Euro are kind of a graze job for DC up to NYC.  The 00z Euro was very good though.

This setup screams eastern LI, Cape Cod and Maine special while the cities get grazed. 

[Niko]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Newer runs of the Euro are kind of a graze job for DC up to NYC.  The 00z Euro was very good though.

Actually..newer runs give hardly any snow at all...but dang, that EURO run was scary looking! If that actually does verify...all hell will break loose. 

I saw a vid of Boston from a close friend of mine there today and their snowpiles are freaking huge. Can you imagine a blizzard on top of all that!!

One thing is for sure, the EC is in a glorious pattern.

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I see very little chance of it coming far enough west for us.  It's not even a done deal that it comes far enough west to be big for DC-Boston. 

West trending storms are dead. Can't even tell you the last time one happened. 

[MI Storm]

3 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

This setup screams eastern LI, Cape Cod and Maine special while the cities get grazed. 

Was heart broken by them many times growing up in northern NJ.  It would get cold and cloudy but would just refuse to snow. Was a small reason why I went to school in Boston lol. I lucked out as there were a ton of these dueing that historic 2013-2015 stretch. Those deform bands coming off the the ocean into the Boston harbor were a weenie dream lol. Of course Boxing day 2010 it came far enough west and slammed NJ while we were away. lol 

[Tom]

Couple storms starting to show up to open up FEB...nice to see PNA relaxing and it will create a good (potentially GREAT) 500mb pattern to track some wintry systems friends.  How about some "Share the Wealth?""

 

[Tony]

47 minutes ago, Tom said:

Couple storms starting to show up to open up FEB...nice to see PNA relaxing and it will create a good (potentially GREAT) 500mb pattern to track some wintry systems friends.  How about some "Share the Wealth?""

 

This week for most of the sub is a dud except for the usual LES suspects. Will be nice to move into February and see what the weather has to offer. Can't get any worse.

[tStacsh]

Most models seems to be spitting out some decent warmth after the first week of February.  That might be good OR bad  for Snow lovers in the Plains/Midwest that haven't seen much.  But it's certainly a ways off, and with some warmth should come some opportunities.   

[jaster220]

19 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Most models seems to be spitting out some decent warmth after the first week of February.  That might be good OR bad  for Snow lovers in the Plains/Midwest that haven't seen much.  But it's certainly a ways off, and with some warmth should come some opportunities.   

Already have 3 AN months this season, and last year Feb was the biggest/best month for storms. Interested to see if that part of the seasonal trends works out this year as well?

[Niko]

Yesterday they were dumping snow in the East and Hudson rivers. They usually do that after a very heavy snowfall.  Central Park receiving a nice 11.4".

Note: I see a nice storm for us here in the Midwest come around Feb10th or so, but not sure exact track. Most on here will enjoy.

[Clinton]

Euro has a little snow for South Dakota, eastern Nebraska and the KC area this weekend.  A few week clippers and the one on Sunday drops a couple inches.

[Clinton]

The 18z Euro AI is starting to sniff out a storm in the 10th-12th timeframe.  This will be one for the Sub to monitor as it related to the Thanksgiving and early December part of the pattern. 

[Black Hole]

Nice signal Still for mid Feb. This sure looks solid with the AK ridge and -NAO block to funnel cold down the Rockies and some STJ to bring in moisture. Not sure if it'll be me or further north but yes, a definite storm potential. 

[MMike]

ICON throwing a bone in 7 days. A good model to trust. LOL. However, other models have been flashing this potential storm

 

we’ll see if it is there late this week. Come on FEB!

[MMike]

[MI Storm]

While mid Feb looks promising. Little clipper coming down Sunday may offer some light snow epsiclly in Nebraks and western Iowa. It looks to dampen out but given the temps. We might be a ble to squeeze a C-1 out of it. 

[Clinton]

12z ICON again producing a storm in the middle of the country next week.

[jcwxguy]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON again producing a storm in the middle of the country next week.

6z euroai shows it as well

[tStacsh]

Canadian has a decent storm as well on the 4th/5th in the heart of the nation.   Models picking up something.   

[Black Hole]

Growing support for another SSW (or something close to it) in early-mid Feb as well. This may just reinforce the modeled pattern for later Feb. 

[Niko]

[MMike]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

12z ICON again producing a storm in the middle of the country next week.

Nov. 20th, 73 days(the cycle length) later is FEB 3rd, the day the ICON shows this storm, there was a storm in the Plains. KC saw 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. This was the start of a very active 10 days were KC and surrounding areas saw (4) different storms ending with the 3-5 inch snow in KC on Dec. 1. So, we should get active starting Feb. 3rd. Now, will we lose the cold by then. Nov. 27th was the start of about 2-3 weeks of below average temps for KC and points north. A lot of clippers in Iowa in Dec. if you all remember. 

Now, the big dog Tom is talking about following SB weekend, that storm was a big one in the Plains Thanksgiving weekend, hammering Iowa and other areas near by, KC had just rain. (2) days later, a 3-5 inch snow storm on Dec. 1st. Will we have cold air this go around when these storms cycle?? How will these storms look this go around.

All I know, the Nov. 20th through Dec. 1st, very active in KC, that repeat, 73 days later starts Feb. 3rd. 

[Clinton]

6 minutes ago, MMike said:

Nov. 20th, 73 days(the cycle length) later is FEB 3rd, the day the ICON shows this storm, there was a storm in the Plains. KC saw 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. This was the start of a very active 10 days were KC and surrounding areas saw (4) different storms ending with the 3-5 inch snow in KC on Dec. 1. So, we should get active starting Feb. 3rd. Now, will we lose the cold by then. Nov. 27th was the start of about 2-3 weeks of below average temps for KC and points north. A lot of clippers in Iowa in Dec. if you all remember. 

Now, the big dog Tom is talking about following SB weekend, that storm was a big one in the Plains Thanksgiving weekend, hammering Iowa and other areas near by, KC had just rain. (2) days later, a 3-5 inch snow storm on Dec. 1st. Will we have cold air this go around when these storms cycle?? How will these storms look this go around.

All I know, the Nov. 20th through Dec. 1st, very active in KC, that repeat, 73 days later starts Feb. 3rd. 

Looks like one teleconnections will be favorable for cold air to be around through the 13th at least.

[Jayhawker85]

31 minutes ago, MMike said:

Nov. 20th, 73 days(the cycle length) later is FEB 3rd, the day the ICON shows this storm, there was a storm in the Plains. KC saw 1.5 to 2 inches of rain. This was the start of a very active 10 days were KC and surrounding areas saw (4) different storms ending with the 3-5 inch snow in KC on Dec. 1. So, we should get active starting Feb. 3rd. Now, will we lose the cold by then. Nov. 27th was the start of about 2-3 weeks of below average temps for KC and points north. A lot of clippers in Iowa in Dec. if you all remember. 

Now, the big dog Tom is talking about following SB weekend, that storm was a big one in the Plains Thanksgiving weekend, hammering Iowa and other areas near by, KC had just rain. (2) days later, a 3-5 inch snow storm on Dec. 1st. Will we have cold air this go around when these storms cycle?? How will these storms look this go around.

All I know, the Nov. 20th through Dec. 1st, very active in KC, that repeat, 73 days later starts Feb. 3rd. 

I guess we shall see how the party evolves these next couple weeks! This will likely be our last hurrah of winter with the pattern being super long this year 

[MMike]

36 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I guess we shall see how the party evolves these next couple weeks! This will likely be our last hurrah of winter with the pattern being super long this year 

I'm interested in if it will repeat. If the pattern is cycling, KC should see a colder than average 2-3 weeks with multiple storm opportunities between Feb. 3 and Feb. 20. The pressure is on!! A stormless and warmer Feb. 3 to Feb. 20th would not be a repeating cycle. We'll See!!! 

Latest GFS shows if very mild and pretty much storm less for Feb. 5th through the 14th(that's as far as it goes out) This would not be a repeating pattern for KC. We'll monitor future runs. Look for changes.