February 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Clinton]

Starting to get a little ensemble support for next weeks potential storm.

[Clinton]

Models are not in agreement for next week and it could be related to the big storm on the east coast. The Euro AI is the most bullish with the potential snow next week. 

The 0z GFS trying to sniff out one of the wetter periods in this year's pattern due in around the 12th. This part of the pattern is related to late November and early December. We should have several systems coming out of the SW with an active southern branch. 

[Black Hole]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Models are not in agreement for next week and it could be related to the big storm on the east coast. The Euro AI is the most bullish with the potential snow next week. 

The 0z GFS trying to sniff out one of the wetter periods in this year's pattern due in around the 12th. This part of the pattern is related to late November and early December. We should have several systems coming out of the SW with an active southern branch. 

I am glad to see precipitation down here, which looks to be pretty likely. Probably not going to get any snow or ice with this round, but I think I will get at least one more shot mid to late Feb. For your area its obviously much more likely you get something. 

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I am glad to see precipitation down here, which looks to be pretty likely. Probably not going to get any snow or ice with this round, but I think I will get at least one more shot mid to late Feb. For your area its obviously much more likely you get something. 

The 10th - 17th really has my attention,  I hope we both can do well.

[MMike]

Barley above freezing yesterday and full sunshine shook some of the snow pack, but, we still have solid snow pack and with an arctic high settling down in our area tomorrow night, how low will we go before return flows kicks in later this weekend and we start the gradual warm-up next week. 

We'll see how we trend in the data today, I'm watching the Saturday night/Sunday wave, it appears maybe a warm air advection precip. event may unfold somewhere in the Plains. Nothing big, but might be able to score a period of snow, we'll see. 

Come on FEB. Give me a few more good winter hits. 

Officially, KC will finish below average on temps(AFTER THE NEXT 3 DAYS)  and above average on snow. We  average 4.9 inches of snow, we are at 5.3 (KCI) I have had 7 inches this month as I caught that freak snow shower event  on Jan. 16th that gave me 1.7 inches of snow while nobody else in the city saw much. The below average temp thing is amazing as we were sitting @ +8.5 Jan. 15th, almost everyday to finish Jan. was well below average on temps. A massive flip. I think somebody on here predicted that after Jan. 13th, the cold air will pour down into the country's midsection. Oh yeah, that was Tom. He doesn't get them all right, but the forecast for the second half of January was spot on. I had my doubts as we were on fire the first half of JAN. @blackhole did a nice job at seeing  better chances of snow for all mid-to late JAN. I remember his maps and discussion too. Along with several others, you guys are some great forecasters.   We'll see how FEB. goes. Man would I love to see a couple big dawgs and one more 10 day period of arctic air. Can we pull it off?

Have a great day everyone. I love winter!!! (not April through Nov. though, HA!)

[Tom]

It does look like an active pattern is shaping up as the new month of FEB opens the doors to what I believe will become a "Fantastic February".  Pretty much all the teleconnections support sustained cold and a path that will lead into multiple systems first targeting the Lakes and Midwest through the 1st Full week of FEB.  Once we get past Super Bowl weekend, its Game On for the rest of the Sub but keep in mind how large and vast our SUB is so don't think that EVERYONE is going to get in on the Snow.  I will promise you one thing, the period from the 7th - 21st is one that will produce for the Central CONUS.   I got my eyes on the Big Dog Week 2 as @Clintonhas highlighted multiple times that will certainly shine in the snow dept.  Is there a Valentine's day weekend storm in the cards??  I do believe so and Ol' Man Winter is absolutely knocking on the Door!!  #snowblitz  

The Feb 3rd-4th period looks like a decent hit for some in the MW and Lower Lakes...pretty good ensemble support for a 2-4" snow system.  2/10 - 2/12 period is suggesting a Heartland "Share the Wealth" storm in the cards as the PNA relaxes and the STOUT west-based Greenland Block locks and holds which was an Exhibit of the LRC this season.  This is the kind of pattern that really has all the characteristics of developing mature wound up storms.  

The period from the 17th - 21st is one to watch as I see a "Pineapple Express" cutting underneath the NW NAMER Ridge and Blocking up Top funneling tremendous cold into the Central CONUS as a PV Split is likely the week before and anchors some of the coldest air in North America over the U.S. and Canada.  I predict a large winter storm during this week and depending on the PNA signal during this period, I expect too see a "Blizzard Potential" and our SUB will Reap the rewards (primarily targeting the Plains into the OHV.  Buckle up, it's about to get real for the Fantastic month of February!

 

 

Isn't this a bit of Wx Porn as a winter enthusiast???  I'd say SO....Let's Freakin' GOOOOO!!!

 

 

[tStacsh]

Heat wave coming.  Can't wait for mid 20's next week.   

[Tony]

12z GFS current run at least looks snowy next week around alot of the sub. Might as well take advantage of this cold that will be hanging around.

[SE Nebraska wx]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Heat wave coming.  Can't wait for mid 20's next week.   

Cmillz might come out of hibernation 

[Black Hole]

I don't particularly love trends for models the last day which seem slower and weaker with cold air. I remember something like this happened in December as well where it was looking like another round of storms but it turned into a couple of weeks of warm weather first. If that were to happen that would push the return of winter weather back for a while down here. I guess we will see, still a long ways away. 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

The 10th - 17th really has my attention, I hope we both can do well.

Looking better for yby tbh. Not "feeling it" for up here. 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Heat wave coming.  Can't wait for mid 20's next week.   

That will be nice for sure!

Meanwhile, looks like we'll (mostly me actually) be standing on the sidelines watching everything of interest pass well south of our back yards. You'll prolly sneak in a clipper somewhere at least. 

[Clinton]

6 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looking better for yby tbh. Not "feeling it" for up here. 

You Michigan guys haven't missed many.  I'm sure something will find its way up there lol.

[gimmesnow]

5 hours ago, Tony said:

12z GFS current run at least looks snowy next week around alot of the sub. Might as well take advantage of this cold that will be hanging around.

I've been snowboarding  3-6 inches of ok snow on top of solid ice thanks to that warm up and rain, ever since that rain storm came around in early January. We had some fluffy snow but it wasn't enough to open snowmobile trails, and grooming 4 inches of fluffy powder ends up with like a quarter inch of groomed base on a ski hill. I'm pretty pessimistic. I think the rest of winter will be warm until mid Fed, a couple storms to the south, then warm March.

This winter hasn't been bad, by any means, but it's definitely not great.

[Clinton]

Great write-up thus morning by Terry Swails in how AI see February using 500mb and teleconnections. 

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/fascinating-how-i-and-ai-see-february

[Black Hole]

Signal for a SSW continues to grow near Feb 10-15. 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Signal for a SSW continues to grow near Feb 10-15. 

This mirrors what I see coming down the piper in post yesterday and will undoubtedly delay and Spring warmth.  Gonna be a lot of upset peeps up near the Lakes, Midwest and East this year.  I've learned in the past from Judah Cohen when these late season SSW events happen that can split the PV usually create a long duration high lat blocking pattern into the Spring months.

[Tom]

Don't look now, @jaster220seemingly may find a way to get Blitzed next Fri-Sat as a sneaky Hybrid Clipper pounds the Lakes...

[Black Hole]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

This mirrors what I see coming down the piper in post yesterday and will undoubtedly delay and Spring warmth.  Gonna be a lot of upset peeps up near the Lakes, Midwest and East this year.  I've learned in the past from Judah Cohen when these late season SSW events happen that can split the PV usually create a long duration high lat blocking pattern into the Spring months.

I hope it can maintain a west coast ridge with the NAO block, but also allow in some SW flow beneath it. Now that is how we could really get rolling. 

[hawkstwelve]

(Forgot we had a February thread started! This is better suited for here than the January thread where I originally posted it.)

Models and ensembles are showing signs for the Northern Plains to get better chances of more meaningful snow post-2/10 or so. Until then, an inch here or there if we're lucky. Sounds familar.

Temps look to generally be in the 30s and maybe even some 40s which would feel downright balmy after the recent stretch of cold air. We haven't had a 40+ high since 1/15 with the vast majority of days spent in the teens or colder. Our coldest day on 1/23 had a mean temp of -11. 

Whenever I talk with PNW folks at my work the first question I usually get asked is, "How cold is it in SD today?". I usually tell them that whether it's 10 degrees or -10 degrees there comes a point when it's just cold and you can't really feel the difference. It's not until you hit the 30s/40s that it starts to feel warmer. Then everyone breaks out the shorts and BBQs. 

[Black Hole]

@Tom it seems like it couples almost immediately on the ECMWF. I had heard this can happen in some circumstances. But at any rate you go from the first image to the 2nd in a few days, with polar heights rising rapidly. This floods the midlatitudes with cold and you have a moisture source. On paper its the right idea for what you want to get frequent storms into the central US. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

@Tom it seems like it couples almost immediately on the ECMWF. I had heard this can happen in some circumstances. But at any rate you go from the first image to the 2nd in a few days, with polar heights rising rapidly. This floods the midlatitudes with cold and you have a moisture source. On paper its the right idea for what you want to get frequent storms into the central US. 

Let's do it!  I'm pretty confident that the central CONUS trough is going to rock with the amplification of the North American 500mb pattern that is showing signs of locking through the month of FEB.   Its going to produce a hellova lot of snow for our SUB and a backloaded winter is in the works.  I think the 4 corners are going to get blessed with MUCH need moisture and storms into MAR.  We usually do get some big storms to dig into Arizona right around early Spring.  The mountains out here definitely need more of that White Gold.

[Black Hole]

Just now, Tom said:

Let's do it!  I'm pretty confident that the central CONUS trough is going to rock with the amplification of the North American 500mb pattern that is showing signs of locking through the month of FEB.   Its going to produce a hellova lot of snow for our SUB and a backloaded winter is in the works.  I think the 4 corners are going to get blessed with MUCH need moisture and storms into MAR.  We usually do get some big storms to dig into Arizona right around early Spring.  The mountains out here definitely need more of that White Gold.

Yes I think significant moisture into the southwest and central US is likely. At this juncture I would lean towards the storm track being mostly north of me so I get warm and wet while areas to the north get the wintry weather. But it only takes one! 

[Clinton]

Gary lezak shared this this morning.  

Goooooooood morning.  Two weeks from now a major winter storm will be approaching Kansas City, in fact a series of winter storms will be developing.  The atmosphere is cycling regularly this winter, and one of the key segments of the cycling weather pattern we spotted months ago will be returning in the next two to three weeks.  Think of the weather like a song on repeat. Certain parts of the song play again and again. Back in late November and early December, one part of this “weather song” brought stormy weather to Kansas & Missouri, and the surrounding region. Using the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), we knew that same part would come back again later in the winter.
We circled the February 5–20 time frame months ago for this pattern to return with the middle dates the target, especially for the Kansas City area and nearby states. Now, the computer models are starting to show winter storms popping up during that same time — including around February 13 shown below, right in the middle of that window.
This doesn’t mean everything is decided yet. The weather models will change their minds a few times before the storm actually forms. That’s normal. What matters is that the timing is lining up, just like we expected.  We’ll be watching this closely, and there’s much more to share over the next couple of weeks as the picture becomes clearer. Follow the development with in-depth details in our Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report: https://weather2020.substack.com #LRC #kansascity #winterweather

[Tom]

5 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Gary lezak shared this this morning.  

Goooooooood morning.  Two weeks from now a major winter storm will be approaching Kansas City, in fact a series of winter storms will be developing.  The atmosphere is cycling regularly this winter, and one of the key segments of the cycling weather pattern we spotted months ago will be returning in the next two to three weeks.  Think of the weather like a song on repeat. Certain parts of the song play again and again. Back in late November and early December, one part of this “weather song” brought stormy weather to Kansas & Missouri, and the surrounding region. Using the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC), we knew that same part would come back again later in the winter.
We circled the February 5–20 time frame months ago for this pattern to return with the middle dates the target, especially for the Kansas City area and nearby states. Now, the computer models are starting to show winter storms popping up during that same time — including around February 13 shown below, right in the middle of that window.
This doesn’t mean everything is decided yet. The weather models will change their minds a few times before the storm actually forms. That’s normal. What matters is that the timing is lining up, just like we expected.  We’ll be watching this closely, and there’s much more to share over the next couple of weeks as the picture becomes clearer. Follow the development with in-depth details in our Weather 20/20 Intelligence Report: https://weather2020.substack.com #LRC #kansascity #winterweather

Valentines Day weekend looks pretty fun tracking storms and also the following week I think is going to spin up a Big Dog!

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Valentines Day weekend looks pretty fun tracking storms and also the following week I think is going to spin up a Big Dog!

Me too.  Can you say multiple storm threads!  It's hard not to get excited.  There could be a sneaky system next week for parts of the eastern sub to watch out for. Curious to see what the models do this weekend. 

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Me too.  Can you say multiple storm threads!  It's hard not to get excited.  There could be a sneaky system next week for parts of the eastern sub to watch out for. Curious to see what the models do this weekend. 

Ya, the 2/3 - 2/4 clipper and then another GL's amped up clipper that drives the arctic air southward towards you and spreads out.  I really feel that the West-Based -NAO is going to deliver the goods this month and the models keep showing it getting stronger and larger as we get closer in time.

[Clinton]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, the 2/3 - 2/4 clipper and then another GL's amped up clipper that drives the arctic air southward towards you and spreads out.  I really feel that the West-Based -NAO is going to deliver the goods this month and the models keep showing it getting stronger and larger as we get closer in time.

I was thinking more about the system swinging out of the southwest that combines with some energy diving down out of the northern Plains.  More recent  runs have kept this further south.

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Don't look now, @jaster220seemingly may find a way to get Blitzed next Fri-Sat as a sneaky Hybrid Clipper pounds the Lakes...

Another d10 teaser in the making?? You got my attention with this post ofc. Is there a certain model run you are seeing? At work so can't model watch. Sorry, had to down-vote your post about extended winter cold due to SSW event. That would be a departure from last season tho. Back in autumn you said my chances would be best during pattern resets. The fisrt storm in late Nov that buried the south shore of Superior "could" cycle thru a bit further south due to seasonal adjustments is what I've had on my mind.

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

This mirrors what I see coming down the piper in post yesterday and will undoubtedly delay and Spring warmth.  Gonna be a lot of upset peeps up near the Lakes, Midwest and East this year.  I've learned in the past from Judah Cohen when these late season SSW events happen that can split the PV usually create a long duration high lat blocking pattern into the Spring months.

Yeah, I don't see early spring wx setting in and sustaining for those areas.  

[Niko]

Great potential next weekend w a strong clipper. Keeping a close eye on it.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Great potential next weekend w a strong clipper. Keeping a close eye on it.

Just had a min to loop the GFS. Yeah, the one next Friday-ish looks like the best chance for mby in a while. GFS has (4) clipper-type N stream systems starting this Monday, then the final S stream system way out on the 15th stays south (I see you last season replay). Not saying it has to do so ofc, but you know, stuck-in-a-rut patterns are slow to die.

The 15th with the real-deal gulf moisture. If this could come north thru Chicago and up my way then we're talkin!

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just had a min to loop the GFS. Yeah, the one next Friday-ish looks like the best chance for mby in a while. GFS has (4) clipper-type N stream systems starting this Monday, then the final S stream system way out on the 15th stays south (I see you last season replay). Not saying it has to do so ofc, but you know, stuck-in-a-rut patterns are slow to die.

The 15th with the real-deal gulf moisture. If this could come north thru Chicago and up my way then we're talkin!

For your sake, it would help if that low doesn't start out on the Gulf coast of Louisiana.  That makes it hard to get it far enough north for you -- there are exceptions of course.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Time period from the 12th to 14th looking good here

[tStacsh]

I'm just happy for the return of "normal" winter

[Minny_Weather]

How nice of Euro to give me the storm of the century in 2 weeks

[Clinton]

Very strong signal for snow (given the range) on what will likely be 2 storms effecting parts of the sub between the 10th and the 15th.  Long ways out but will be fun to monitor going forward. 

GEFS for the 10th - 15th

 

[MI Storm]

0z GFS is wild!

[SE Nebraska wx]

15 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

0z GFS is wild!

Loved the bitter cold at the end

[mlgamer]

12 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

How nice of Euro to give me the storm of the century in 2 weeks

I still don't have a picture of Bigfoot, but I do have one of the I-70 snow shield...