February 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Black Hole]

There are actually a number of low end snow chances here. We could get a dusting this evening from a weak feature riding over the cold air. It's a bad time to have my heating out. It was 49F in my house this morning  

A weak trailing system Wednesday could produce a dusting again, better chance in central KS. Then s the pattern shifts and we get both -NAO blocking and a more active storm track both the GFS and ECMWF have hinted at storm chances near the 10th and onwards. I wouldn't be surprised if we whiffed on all of these, but there is hope! My guess is the stuff in the 10th-15th range will evaporate with a better chance down my way from around the 15-20th as it stands now. 

[Black Hole]

The pattern shown in my last post is classic for southern cutters. So theoretically my area and east should see something during a pattern like that. 

[Tom]

15 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

The pattern shown in my last post is classic for southern cutters. So theoretically my area and east should see something during a pattern like that. 

Buckle up and sharpen your pencil !!!

[Black Hole]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Buckle up and sharpen your pencil !!!

But the northern Plains might do better as well because of the increased Pacific moisture. Really, anybody could get some action in the pattern coming up. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Black Hole said:

But the northern Plains might do better as well because of the increased Pacific moisture. Really, anybody could get some action in the pattern coming up. 

Oh ya, no doubt about it that this part of the western trough/SW Flow pattern is going to DELIVER the Good's all across the west into the areas that have been skunked for the better part of the last month or so.  I-80 specials are what I'm seeing as an area to pretty much focus where there is going to be cold air anchored as the CENTRAL CONUS trough becomes established.  If it wasn't for the massive west-based -NAO then you can forget about this scenario, however, this year something special is happening with the high lat blocking.  I'm really excited and enthusiastic for what is going to transpire right around Superbowl Weekend.  Once the Rex Block (High over Low) exits my area...its Game On baby!!

 

 

06z GEFS...the biggest snow signal for any longer range pattern this winter season that covers the majority of our SUB from north to south.  How about some Big Dog's boys and girls???

[Clinton]

@KTPmidMOthe NAM and ICON indicate a little freezing drizzle and light snow around Tuesday morning.  It could be just enough to be a nuisance. 

[Clinton]

The 12z GFS brings snow into the plains on the 8th and then brings down the north pole right behind it.

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

The 12z GFS brings snow into the plains on the 8th and then brings down the north pole right behind it.

Super Bowl system?  Would be a nice way to open up the beginnings of the Snow Blitz out west.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

On 1/30/2026 at 7:57 AM, Tom said:

Let's do it!  I'm pretty confident that the central CONUS trough is going to rock with the amplification of the North American 500mb pattern that is showing signs of locking through the month of FEB.   It’s going to produce a hellova lot of snow for our SUB and a backloaded winter is in the works.  I think the 4 corners are going to get blessed with MUCH need moisture and storms into MAR.  We usually do get some big storms to dig into Arizona right around early Spring.  The mountains out here definitely need more of that White Gold.

AO and PNA both head toward a neutral state finally so that could be helpful for a less suppressed pattern.

[Niko]

Moderate risk for S MI. Ok then...

[MMike]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

The 12z GFS brings snow into the plains on the 8th and then brings down the north pole right behind it.

The CMC has 60 and nothing Monday FEb. 9th and the GFS has snow and 14 degrees. Just a tad bit different…

[SE Nebraska wx]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

The 12z GFS brings snow into the plains on the 8th and then brings down the north pole right behind it.

Same time frame on the euro is warm

[Black Hole]

A lot of what I saw on the 12z guidance floods much of Canada with warmer air around the 10th, but it looks primed for cooler air to return after the 15th. Well at least as of now that is what I see on guidance.

That would line up with what I was saying earlier, that at least down in the central and southern Plains it may be the 15th or later before the colder air really returns. Then again, models will probably shift a lot between now and then, especially with a potential SSW event. 

[Hoosier]

Somebody tell the CFS we want some good storms rolling across the country!

[jaster220]

Globals are in fairly good agreement at this range for kicking off the Feb party with a Clipper swinging or dropping into the Central Lakes next Thurs night/Friday. If they are still looking good tomorrow, I'll fire-up a thread. I like the magic 120 hr range myself. 

[MI Storm]

Key to getting snow in to the plains. Especially the I-80 snow hole. Will be the PNA. Good amount of guidance has a  AO that is a bit less intense -NAO -PNA. That could be a very stormy pattern into the last third of winter. Would like to see the -PNA come to pas though. 

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Key to getting snow in to the plains. Especially the I-80 snow hole. Will be the PNA. Good amount of guidance has a  AO that is a bit less intense -NAO -PNA. That could be a very stormy pattern into the last third of winter. Would like to see the -PNA come to pas though. 

Late autumn outlooks called this the "I-80 and north" Nina pattern winter. Aren't you more I-70?

[Stacsh]

Euro warm mid month so far.  GFS cold again.   Who will win the 10-14 day long range battle?  

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Euro warm mid month so far.  GFS cold again.   Who will win the 10-14 day long range battle?  

La Nina

[Andie]

Low of 24* tonight.  
This should be the bottom for now.  
Bundle up!

[jaster220]

Btw, JB likes Feb of '69 and 2010 as analogs for what he's seeing. Legendary storm for NMI during Feb of '69 and 2010 went big for mby in Marshall. It was a fun month after that cold and low-snow Jan.

[clintbeed1993]

7 hours ago, Stacsh said:

Euro warm mid month so far.  GFS cold again.   Who will win the 10-14 day long range battle?  

The GFS is clueless and is now completely opposite in mid February with a torch. I would go with that as the more likely scenario since the other models are more on the warm side.  GFS can't even be trusted 7 days out, let alone 14 

[westMJim]

February

It is now time to welcome February 2026. In February Grand Rapids gains 1hour and 13 minutes of daylight. The 1991/2020 thirty year average mean temperature at Grand Rapids for February is 26.6° the daily H/L starts out at 30.8/17.5 on the 1st is at 33.2/19.0 on the 14th and up to 38/22 by the 28th On average there is 2.12” of total precipitation in February and the average snowfall in 17.2” With the average mean temperature of 26.6 the warmest February’s at Grand Rapids are 35.4 in 2020, 34.7 in 2017, 34.1 in 1998, 34.0 in 1984 and 32.9 in 1930. The record high for February is 73 on February 27th 2024. The coldest February’s are 13.3 in 2015, 14.3 in 1978, 14.6 in 1904, 14.9 in 1936 and 1899. The coldest low in February is -24 on February 13th and 14th 1899. In 1901 it never got above freezing with the highest reading of just 31. There have been 6 years with it did not get above 40 at Grand Rapids in February the last time was in 2015. The average highest temperature is 50. In 1989 the lowest temperature for the month was just 16.  The wettest February was a reported 5.77” in 1898 the dryest was 0.21” in 1907 the most snowfall of 41.6” fell in 2008 the least snowfall of just 0.5” was in 1998 the most snow on the ground is 24” in 2014. There have been a total of 30 years when there was at least 1” of snow on the ground in all of the days of the month.  The updated long range guess for February is hinting at chance of below average temperatures and no good indication for how much precipitation we could get.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/

With clear skies and a calm winds the temperature here has fallen to -6. It has gotten very cold down in Florida and the air temperatures are in the 20’s and even is far southern Florida the temperatures are in the low to mid 30’s and wind chills are as low as 10 in many locations. Back here in Michigan the first week of February looks to be near average temperatures and a couple of chances of snow but there will also be a lot of sunshine as well.

KEY MESSAGES  

CLIPPER BRINGS SNOW TO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY

ANOTHER CLIPPER WITH SNOW EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY

TEMPERATURES ON A MODERATING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK  

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 19/1 there was 0.2” of snowfall and the January total is 39.4” That is the most January snowfall at Grand Rapids since 2014. There is now 10” of snow on the ground.  For today the average H/L is 31/18 the record high of 51 was in 1966 and 1989 the coldest high of 5 was in 1971 the record low of -20 was in 1899 the warmest low of 40 was in 1968 the wettest was also in 1968 with 1.32” the most snowfall of 8.8” was in 2015 and the most snow on the ground was 18” in 1959 and 1918.

Some weather history for February 1st  1951 The greatest ice storm of record in the U.S. produced glaze up to four inches thick from Texas to Pennsylvania causing twenty-five deaths, 500 serious injuries, and 100 million dollars damage. Tennessee was hardest hit by the storm. Communications and utilities were interrupted for a week to ten days. (David Ludlum) 2011 One of the most significant events of the 2010-2011 winter season affected a widespread region from Texas to the Midwest and Northeast from February 1st to 3rd 2011. The system produced widespread heavy snow with blizzard conditions and significant freezing rain and sleet to other locations. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches were common from northeast Oklahoma to lower Michigan. The storm produced 20.2 inches at Chicago, the third heaviest snowfall in the city since their records began in 1886, along with a peak wind of 61 mph. Kansas City received just under 9 inches of snow. The high temp was 17 degrees.

 

 

[Tom]

The last month of MET Winter has begun on a Full Moon today.  I woke up super early around 3:25am and the Moon was really bright out there early this morning.  Oh, it didn't help that my neighbor, who's an East Coast snow bird, decided to do some work in his garage at 3:30am!  SMH, the 2 hour difference in time zones prob had something to do with it.  Anyhow, I'm going to prob take it easy today and enjoy some of that wonderful Vitamin D and blue skies!

PHX hit a high of 81F yesterday and is the start of a streak of low 80's this week.  Great weather for the Waste Management Phoenix Open for the golfers out there.  You can tell the traffic has increased around town this weekend and will be very busy this entire week.  I'd say many folks from out East and in the Midwest are likely traveling to the Valley of the Sun and escaping the brutal weather ya'll are experiencing.

[Tom]

@SE Nebraska wx, did you get any snow from the wave that moved through?

[Tom]

Boy, I certainly didn't expect to see the models shift so much the past couple days and really trying to push the warmer air farther north and might have to deal with a hard cutter.  As is the case for our Sub, what's good for those farther north is nasso good for snow lover farther south.  @hawkstwelve @Minny_Weather should fair well during Week 2...

If that's what it takes to shake up the pattern and get rid of the west coast ridge, by all means I guess its worth it to get storms to dig into the 4 corners and tap into some PAC moisture.

[Black Hole]

19 minutes ago, Tom said:

Boy, I certainly didn't expect to see the models shift so much the past couple days and really trying to push the warmer air farther north and might have to deal with a hard cutter.  As is the case for our Sub, what's good for those farther north is nasso good for snow lover farther south.  @hawkstwelve @Minny_Weather should fair well during Week 2...

If that's what it takes to shake up the pattern and get rid of the west coast ridge, by all means I guess its worth it to get storms to dig into the 4 corners and tap into some PAC moisture.

Yep. The ensemble guidance has shifted to flood northern Canada with warm air around the 12th. By the end of the run colder air would be returning to western Canada and possibly into the northern parts of the plains. It would likely take at least a few more days to get down here (assuming it actually does). So this could end up favoring the northern third for winter chances but we will see. It changes every day after all. 

[Stacsh]

Looks like only glancing blows of arctic air from here until mid-February.   That should mean storms at least.   But then time starts running out.   

[KTPmidMO]

On 1/31/2026 at 10:11 AM, Clinton said:

@KTPmidMOthe NAM and ICON indicate a little freezing drizzle and light snow around Tuesday morning.  It could be just enough to be a nuisance. 

Was just looking at that now. NAM looks like it still has it in the area but seems like its pushing further east run after run. Other models have it more east into STL and Illinois. 

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Looks like only glancing blows of arctic air from here until mid-February.   That should mean storms at least.   But then time starts running out.   

Definitely a concern. Big snows can happen for a while yet, but in my mind real winter ends around Feb 20th. After that it just warms up and melts too quickly. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Yep. The ensemble guidance has shifted to flood northern Canada with warm air around the 12th. By the end of the run colder air would be returning to western Canada and possibly into the northern parts of the plains. It would likely take at least a few more days to get down here (assuming it actually does). So this could end up favoring the northern third for winter chances but we will see. It changes every day after all. 

Alot of conflicting teleconnections.  The AO and NAO are well into the negative territory and the WPO and EPO are headed towards slight positive reading around the 10th.  I'm curious to see what actually happens. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I'm curious to see what actually happens. 

We get screwed and the east coast cashes in yet again like they do every year. **** the I95

[Hoosier]

Tasty storm at the end of the op GFS, though it would probably turn mixy here.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

We get screwed and the east coast cashes in yet again like they do every year. **** the I95

North Carolina getting it hits different than when it's DC-Boston, at least for me.  Good for the southern folks.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

Just now, Hoosier said:

North Carolina getting it hits different than when it's DC-Boston, at least for me.  Good for the southern folks.  

Nah. **** them. Im struggling to get over 6 inches yet again while I watch the south get crushed yet againOh and February is looking like a complete train wreck out here. Warm and dry. Yippie. 

 

So glad this awful winter is about over. 

[Hoosier]

57 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Definitely a concern. Big snows can happen for a while yet, but in my mind real winter ends around Feb 20th. After that it just warms up and melts too quickly. 

I start to mentally shift away from hoping to maintain snowcover to just hoping for good storm(s) as we approach the end of February and beyond.  And that's where I am at 41.5N.

[gabel23]

I picked up 2"' last night and it will all be melted away by tomorrow. My season total to date is 7.5". Garbage.......

[Stacsh]

We are up to 25 with full sun.  Water dripping off the roof.    Forgot how nice this feels after two weeks under 20.  

[Stacsh]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I start to mentally shift away from hoping to maintain snowcover to just hoping for good storm(s) as we approach the end of February and beyond.  And that's where I am at 41.5N.

This is correct.   After the last two weeks.  I’m hoping for at least sunny days and then a big storm to track.   I’m snow covered out.  

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Alot of conflicting teleconnections.  The AO and NAO are well into the negative territory and the WPO and EPO are headed towards slight positive reading around the 10th.  I'm curious to see what actually happens. 

If trends can shift to keep the flood of warm air out of Canada we don't have to waste the first trough just bringing the cold air back to Canada. So if we can avoid that, we could get back into a sooner timeline, but as it stands now I think for you and I we are likely at least the 15th or beyond for any real hope.