February 2026 Observations & Discussions

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Starts off slow.  Then the monster comes into view. 

I remember that "wall of snow" just inundated the area and it was lights out after that...I just watched some short youtube videos I made during that storm and I got goosebumps living through that storm!

[gabel23]

9 minutes ago, Tom said:

I remember that "wall of snow" just inundated the area and it was lights out after that...I just watched some short youtube videos I made during that storm and I got goosebumps living through that storm!

That was back when they issued Blizzard watches you remember that?? It was like 50 hours before the storm hit and the NWS had watches out already. Crazy storm; this page was highly visited and I think we crashed it for a bit. 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

That was back when they issued Blizzard watches you remember that?? It was like 50 hours before the storm hit and the NWS had watches out already. Crazy storm; this page was highly visited and I think we crashed it for a bit. 

Yes indeed, I remember Tom Skilling was super fired up about this storm days out when the Euro locked in on the track.  I can recall watching his segments prior to the storm and really enjoying how deep and extensive preparation he did for this storm (as well as others).  He always talked about being next to the "Right Rear Exit Region "of the jet.  I believe that's what it was that produced the most lift.  I sure want you all to track one more Beast of a storm this season and I do believe its coming sometime this month 17th-21st.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

Yes indeed, I remember Tom Skilling was super fired up about this storm days out when the Euro locked in on the track.  I can recall watching his segments prior to the storm and really enjoying how deep and extensive preparation he did for this storm (as well as others).  He always talked about being next to the "Right Rear Exit Region "of the jet.  I believe that's what it was that produced the most lift.  I sure want you all to track one more Beast of a storm this season and I do believe its coming sometime this month 17th-21st.

Hard to remember after all these years, but I feel like there was a Euro run or two that suppressed it south of Chicago at maybe about 5-7 days out.  That was when that model only ran twice per day.  I remember the GFS being chronically far south with it and then it kept trending north as it got closer.  But all in all, it was a setup that looked like it had great potential even at 9-10 days out with a very amplified ridge that was being advertised off of the west coast and corresponding substantial troughing downstream.  

[Black Hole]

HRRR says maybe I get a quick dusting Wednesday morning. Kind of a weird setup but maybe something happens. 

[tStacsh]

1 hour ago, westMJim said:

 Unfortunately in our area while most of the snow could be gone the parking lot snow piles and the snow along the side of the roads stick around for ever.  And the cold last well into April and no thunderstorms. 

Indeed!

[jaster220]

Snow globe of a mid-winter day here as it continues to fall on/off at various tempos. Up to 1.7" when I only expected 0.5"

Not seeing any signs of my WWA ice at all here. I'll just pretend it was a tardy issuance for the blown snow forecast 

(12)th headline and (10)th plow-worthy event of the winter here. The frequency of "events" the last two winters will be the impressive thing to remember imo. Oh, and almost 9" at my snow stake is now the best depth since right before the pre-Christmas rain and melt when I hit 9.5"

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Indeed!

I miss seeing huge fresh parking lot piles - two winters ago since anything caused such around here (yes I see them up in Grayling ofc). 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Hard to remember after all these years, but I feel like there was a Euro run or two that suppressed it south of Chicago at maybe about 5-7 days out.  That was when that model only ran twice per day.  I remember the GFS being chronically far south with it and then it kept trending north as it got closer.  But all in all, it was a setup that looked like it had great potential even at 9-10 days out with a very amplified ridge that was being advertised off of the west coast and corresponding substantial troughing downstream.  

Not hard to remember. Started out at like d10 as another in a series of "congrats EC" storms, then like you said, after a couple days of flashing that, the main globals shifted west and NWS Chicago got fired-up and started hoisting Blizzard Watches which quite frankly I was very envious of. Its the one headline I never scored and now never will ofc. 

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

HRRR says maybe I get a quick dusting Wednesday morning. Kind of a weird setup but maybe something happens. 

This reminded me of the freak, intense snowstorm that struck a 10-15 mile wide path in central Kansas on February 25, 2020 with anywhere from 2"-13" of snow and literally nothing outside the narrow path...so you just never know!  More details below.

NWS Wichita...https://www.weather.gov/ict/event_20200225

"An extremely narrow band of heavy snow developed during the early morning hours of February 25th. Snow totals in this narrow band ranged from 2 to 13 inches. This area of snow crossed both I-70 and I-135 which caused numerous traffic accidents."

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Back in Feb '13, we did get a couple of storms within about a week of each other that added up to around 20 inches.  That's almost as good.  Two storms to enjoy.  Not sure if Topeka got hit as hard.  

You're 100% correct - the right combination of storms or a medium bliz hitting when you already have a decent snow pack can yield the same net effects of a single monster storm. I was just 2 y.o. and don't remember a thing when the only 20+ monster hit mby (Jan '67). Since then I've been fortunate (by moving around a bit) to score (4) 18" storms (April '75, Jan '99, PV Bliz Jan '14, and GHD-2 Feb '15) but I have just one photo and its a poor cell phone pic at that. I'd just finished shoveling my city lot by hand about 9 pm 1/6/14 with an actual temp of -16F/-41F wc! Talk about the arctic paying a visit to SMI

Still looking for a CAT-5 monster storm which I though GHD-1 would deliver for SMI but it had other plans. All those maps showing 15-25" across SMI were yet another tease, lol.

[jaster220]

@Niko's MIA - did he mention going overseas or something I missed?

[indianajohn]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

I remember that "wall of snow" just inundated the area and it was lights out after that...I just watched some short youtube videos I made during that storm and I got goosebumps living through that storm!

Great storm!! Imagine if we didn’t get dryslotted 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Not hard to remember. Started out at like d10 as another in a series of "congrats EC" storms, then like you said, after a couple days of flashing that, the main globals shifted west and NWS Chicago got fired-up and started hoisting Blizzard Watches which quite frankly I was very envious of. Its the one headline I never scored and now never will ofc. 

The model runs with these big storms can kind of all blend together in the mind after the passage of so much time, at least for me.  I know GHD 2 was fairly suppressed on the models for a while, even up until it was about 4 days out.  But the more I think of it, I think you are correct about some model runs taking GHD 1 up the east coast.  I know for certain that the GFS was playing catchup practically all the way until the storm arrived.

[Niko]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@Niko's MIA - did he mention going overseas or something I missed?

I'm here amigo. Been completely swamped w projects. 

Hey...Thurs-Fri looks good for us for accumulating snows. I'll continue this at your thread you just recently started. 

Btw: Detroit river frozen!!!

One further Note: received a half inch of snowfall today adding to my snowpack. 

[Hoosier]

54 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

This reminded me of the freak, intense snowstorm that struck a 10-15 mile wide path in central Kansas on February 25, 2020 with anywhere from 2"-13" of snow and literally nothing outside the narrow path...so you just never know!  More details below.

NWS Wichita...https://www.weather.gov/ict/event_20200225

"An extremely narrow band of heavy snow developed during the early morning hours of February 25th. Snow totals in this narrow band ranged from 2 to 13 inches. This area of snow crossed both I-70 and I-135 which caused numerous traffic accidents."

Man, what a cool photo.

[Niko]

53 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

You're 100% correct - the right combination of storms or a medium bliz hitting when you already have a decent snow pack can yield the same net effects of a single monster storm. I was just 2 y.o. and don't remember a thing when the only 20+ monster hit mby (Jan '67). Since then I've been fortunate (by moving around a bit) to score (4) 18" storms (April '75, Jan '99, PV Bliz Jan '14, and GHD-2 Feb '15) but I have just one photo and its a poor cell phone pic at that. I'd just finished shoveling my city lot by hand about 9 pm 1/6/14 with an actual temp of -16F/-41F wc! Talk about the arctic paying a visit to SMI

Still looking for a CAT-5 monster storm which I though GHD-1 would deliver for SMI but it had other plans. All those maps showing 15-25" across SMI were yet another tease, lol.

Holy smokes. Looks like a big Nor'easter type snows you would typically see on the EC.

[Niko]

Detroit Metro so far holding at 33.9" for the season, which is just about average for now. More snow coming down the pipe, which could get us AN for the whole season. 

[Niko]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

This reminded me of the freak, intense snowstorm that struck a 10-15 mile wide path in central Kansas on February 25, 2020 with anywhere from 2"-13" of snow and literally nothing outside the narrow path...so you just never know!  More details below.

NWS Wichita...https://www.weather.gov/ict/event_20200225

"An extremely narrow band of heavy snow developed during the early morning hours of February 25th. Snow totals in this narrow band ranged from 2 to 13 inches. This area of snow crossed both I-70 and I-135 which caused numerous traffic accidents."

Impressive photo! Nice!

[MI Storm]

Seems like both AI models are toying with something around Vday, but pretty borderline temp wise around these parts. They've been doing well. So worth a watch imo. 

[bud2380]

I’m officially ready for spring and let’s never talk about this winter again. I’m not sure we’ve gotten an inch total since Dec 13. 

[Clinton]

Big time warm up starts later this week for western Missouri with temps approaching 60 by early next week.  It looks like Winter may very well be over for mby, hopefully there will be several good rain chances over the next 2 or 3 weeks with the western trough. It's hard to see anyway to get sustained cold or arctic air down here with teleconnections like these.

AO

NAO 

EPO:  Yikes!

[Tom]

I always thought this was a "thing"...Industrial-Effect Snow...

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/dZUD1Sx8zLg?embeds_referring_euri=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F&source_ve_path=MTU2OTE1

[Clinton]

While snow doesn't look likely for me there does seem to be some hope along and north of I-80.  The GEFS mean for the 12th-19th.

[hawkstwelve]

I wouldn't be writing off the winter just yet if you live in the Northern Plains/Midwest. After Valentines Day continues to look more active than anything we've seen for the past month and a half.

I wouldn't mind a couple rounds of some legit CO-low type storms. I've just about had enough of the events we've had ad nauseum lately that go something like, "Hey dad! It's snowing outside! How much are we going to get?" with a deflated answer of "Nothing more than a trace, buddy. Sorry." Let's get an actual storm in here!

[chescowxman]

Some spots today have their first chance at seeing above freezing temperatures. If we fail to reach freezing today it will mark our 11th straight day. This would tie for the 5th longest sub-freezing streak in County history. If we do not top freezing today we have an increasing chance at setting an all-time county record. If we get through next Monday we would set just such a record at 17 days. There were a couple of flurries out there this morning, but we should see some sun this afternoon. Some additional flurries are possible tonight especially across southern areas. A little better shot at some light snow on Friday before yet another strong arctic front sends us back into the freezer for the weekend.

[tStacsh]

After this upcoming weekend a big pattern change happens.   The truly polar Arctic air goes bye bye.  Will it return later this month? I have a feeling later this month into Early March it will, unfortunately.   

 This will certainly pave the way for the possibility of  some bigger storms across the heartland of America.   This is the type of pattern I enjoy.   Cold enough for a chance, but not so bitter cold you can't enjoy anything other than to look at it outside.   And if we get a big cutter and temps go up to 50, I won't be complaining.    I will complain about a major snowstorm missing by 100 miles and stuck in the 30's and rain though.   

[Black Hole]

It's still looking like we flood Canada with some decent warmth from a Chinook pattern. So although there will be no cold air available, this is still a good trough in the south. We should manage some decent rains with this. In fact, I think some severe weather could be possible in the deep south in this pattern. Certainly no snow in central/southern areas.

 

Then towards the 15-20th we gradually increase cooler air in Canada again. For now this still looks quite warm in the southern Plains but we should get some more precipitation. In fact I think most of the plains will get wetter. Ejecting shortwaves could bring snow for the northern Plains as we get towards the 20th. But this pattern is sensitive to subtle changes so we will see. Still, haven't seen such a big western trough in a long while so this is a change.

In terms of the stratosphere models have backed off a bit, with most guidance pointing towards a disruption but no major SSW. Still time for that to change.

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

For down here you can see the mild and somewhat wet signal. Probably some thunderstorm activity, and like I said, severe potential in the deep south. Certainly no chance of winter here until at least the 20th and that is the end of winter in my book. It could still snow into March but it'll be fleeting. 

[MMike]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Big time warm up starts later this week for western Missouri with temps approaching 60 by early next week.  It looks like Winter may very well be over for mby, hopefully there will be several good rain chances over the next 2 or 3 weeks with the western trough. It's hard to see anyway to get sustained cold or arctic air down here with teleconnections like these.

AO

NAO 

EPO:  Yikes!

Clinton, FEB 3rd and you're throwing in the towel? I'm going to see if this ages well...LOL. I hear you though, been a terrible winter pattern here in Missouri. Just two legit snows, 50 days apart. I had a feeling that the last 18 days which was very wintry in KC that might be my winter...i loved it. Cold weather with a snow pack for about 9 days. 

Let's see if we can get a second half of the month flip like we did in JAN. Maybe the first storm is rain and the two following might turn wintry around here. Just think FEB. 2011 again. Ya never know!!

[Clinton]

10 minutes ago, MMike said:

Clinton, FEB 3rd and you're throwing in the towel? I'm going to see if this ages well...LOL. I hear you though, been a terrible winter pattern here in Missouri. Just two legit snows, 50 days apart. I had a feeling that the last 18 days which was very wintry in KC that might be my winter...i loved it. Cold weather with a snow pack for about 9 days. 

Let's see if we can get a second half of the month flip like we did in JAN. Maybe the first storm is rain and the two following might turn wintry around here. Just think FEB. 2011 again. Ya never know!!

Well if the AO and NAO were staying negative I'd be singing a different song.  The spire model however is throwing a bone to our neighbors up north. 

[Hawkeye]

A surprise, narrow band of good snow set up last night from Cedar Rapids to north of the Quad Cities.  I got 1.5 inches.  Several locations along the line got 2 inches.  I did not even know there was any snow in the forecast.  The ratio is 25 to 1, so it's very fluffy.

[gimmesnow]

1 minute ago, MMike said:

Clinton, FEB 3rd and you're throwing in the towel? I'm going to see if this ages well...LOL. I hear you though, been a terrible winter pattern here in Missouri. Just two legit snows, 50 days apart. I had a feeling that the last 18 days which was very wintry in KC that might be my winter...i loved it. Cold weather with a snow pack for about 9 days. 

Let's see if we can get a second half of the month flip like we did in JAN. Maybe the first storm is rain and the two following might turn wintry around here. Just think FEB. 2011 again. Ya never know!!

This has happened the last few years, I call it the "two more weeks and the models bring back winter" pattern. It keeps doing that until we reach March and everyone realizes winter weather accomplishes nothing because even if you get a big storm it's gone in a few days, snowmobile trails are closed/closing, and ski areas are closed too, because it was warm and rainy waiting for winter to show up. It turns this place into moping about how they want spring and are just getting useless stat-padding snows that people who like winter sports can't enjoy.

From what I've read elsewhere, the end of Feb depends entirely on SSW and the vortex splitting, and nothing is really in agreement.

Looks like it's time to run to the UP of MI for me

[Tom]

There is an indication that the models may be sniffing out a stronger Hudson Bay block which has been an exhibit of this years pattern for next week and into the Valentines Day weekend.  The storm (s) showing up on the AI models are suggesting more of a W/E track for early next week primarily hugging the I-80 corridor.  This opens the door to hit @hawkstwelve and people up north and fill up these snow holes below!

 

I am looking at my Strat maps and I might have to dig a bit deeper over the next day or two to fully bite into that idea.  Knowing the PV at the 10mb is splitting and nearly taking it all the way down into the mid lats of the U.S. suggest the storm track will be farther south into the Heartland of the U.S.

0z GEFS 10mb...

 

GFS Operational...

 

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

Like some others from Iowa I am pretty  disgusted with this winter.  Feels like  only Nov 29th to Dec 13 was real winter. Ive lost all confidence in noaa or long range models beyond 5 days to get it right here. La niña, el niño, mjo PNA NAO  or anything makes a difference here. We are ALWAYS or 99% of time on west edge of east trough with nw flow or east edge of big west ridges. Cold and dry or warm and dry.  Pineapple express in socal makes no difference, severe drought in socal gives se iowa same thing DRY! 

This winter 1 snow over 3". 2 snows over 1". 17 inches of dusting!!! Last winter identical except for ice storm in dec.

5 consecutive bad winters except 11 days in mid Jan 2024.

2010 to 2020 we averaged 13 plowings per commercial customer!!!  In 2014 we plowed commercials 18 times. Now? Maybe avg of 5 plowable events!! And that number is dropping!

We had to grow a business from 5 commercial accounts to 65 commercial accounts to survive!!!! Now its salting all these dustings that keeps us profitable! 18 to 22 saltings! 150 tons of salt per season.

Temps are not the issue. NO DARN LIFT IN ATMOSPHERE IS THE ISSUE!!!

Other than early Dec past 5 winters almost NO CLIPPERS HERE! 

Dry dry dry dry here.  Picking which 2 to 4 weeks of the year might be wet here is like finding needle in haystack.

Business now in my sons hands. I should move!

[Tom]

@Jaycee_CHImight see snow flying yet again off the lake tomorrow morning...

 

 

[MMike]

47 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

A surprise, narrow band of good snow set up last night from Cedar Rapids to north of the Quad Cities.  I got 1.5 inches.  Several locations along the line got 2 inches.  I did not even know there was any snow in the forecast.  The ratio is 25 to 1, so it's very fluffy.

I saw that on radar when I was fooling around with weather maps and said to myself, the returns on radar look healthy and it has to be puking snow. Sounds like the radar wasn't lying. I love surprise snows!! Over achievers!! 

[tStacsh]

[MMike]

6 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

Newest ICON agrees, 70’s in KC Monday/Tuesday next week! 

[Niko]

It has been snowing from yesterday, but lightly to occasionally moderate burst. Picked up 1.4" so far and still snowing. Temp is at 25F. Deep winter continues.