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Cyclical Climate Change Champion. There is no climate emergency. Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  2025/26 Winter Events (15) Total Snow/Sleet to Date is 47.9" =  3/12 - 0.5" / 2/23 - 10.0" / 2/15 - 2.0" / 02/7 - 1.3" / 01/25 = 12.8" / 01/18 - 4.0" / 01/17 - 4.5" / 01/02 - 0.3" / 01/01 - 0.8" / 12/26 - 0.8" / 12/23 - 1.0" / 12/14 - 8.8" / 12/6 - 0.3" / 12/2 - 0.3" / 11/30 - 0.5" /Recent seasonal Snow totals  2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

Is there a spooky Friday the 13th storm brewing up down in the Deep South???  #TexarkanaCutter that leads into Valentine's Day weekend???  But first, our friends up north in the Northland look to get hit in what will be a lead wave/system that pumps up a brief warm up for most on here except the northern tier.  To close for @hawkstwelve     but just close enough to hit @jaster220 @Madtown land and our Minny peeps as they should blessed with White Gold early next week from a lead wave along the periphery of the retreating Arctic Air.

Here comes the 1-2 Punch as Back- 2- Back storms are starting to show up and don't sit back on the later one as this has Big Dog written all over it.  This one excites me bc it has the potential to really tap into the Gulf of America moisture and "Dig Baby Dig" into the Deep South late next week into the weekend.  We have seen this pattern before many times in the Autumn as the lead storm drags down a CF/Frontal Boundary and while it is not terribly cold, it will IMO, be just cold enough to produce snow in the heartland and Lakes.  The strong ULL storm has been an exhibit of this LRC as it dives south from the Gulf of Alaska and slides down the west coast into the 4 corners.

The GFS/EURO are all over it and it will be our next Major system to track.  My Super bowl storm prediction isn't panning out to be a formidable one, but it is spinning down here just to my south and will eventually marry into another trough that will replace it by this weekend and stall out right over the Baja Region and eventually bless Texas @Andiewith much needed rain.  BTW, I see you Tropical Storms in the later summer months hitting this area into BAJA/N Mexico/4 corners.

00z Euro from last night is showing this Upper Level pattern pattern quite nicely...

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06z GEFS...let's not sleep on this one for KC and the I-80 corridor and "Share the Wealth" into the Lakes...

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Posted
10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If only the Canadian could be a little cooler lol.  GFS looked broken this run, it had the pattern all sorts of crazy.

The look is just too warm! Maybe it will change but it’s pretty consistent with all data. I’m with you, at least give me some good rains..

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If only the Canadian could be a little cooler lol.  GFS looked broken this run, it had the pattern all sorts of crazy.

GFS is broken in my opinion... lol

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Posted

I've been wanting to see the AIFS latch on a bit better and the past couple runs have started to look more promising than prior runs.

12z shows this accumulating starting on Valentine's Day...

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Weather Station: Sodak Weather 

2025/2026 Winter Current Snow Total: 34"

  • November: 9"
  • December: 15"
  • January: 2"
  • February: 1"
  • March: 7"
Posted
1 hour ago, MMike said:

The look is just too warm! Maybe it will change but it’s pretty consistent with all data. I’m with you, at least give me some good rains..

Yup. Has all the makings  of a 40F rain storm. At least in our area. I'll take  the moisture!

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Posted
55 minutes ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've been wanting to see the AIFS latch on a bit better and the past couple runs have started to look more promising than prior runs.

12z shows this accumulating starting on Valentine's Day...

1771588800-x1P65VUeH7Q.png

Oh please verify. I'm planning on doing a trip to Norway Mt, Pine Mt, Marquette, and Brule that week.

  • Like 3
Posted
3 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Time to stick a fork in this winter. 

It’s move time, SE NE in a bad spot and while it might be better than this year, I still think without a lake nearby to mitigate warming with more moisture your averages will consistently decrease, even if not quickly.

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Posted
25 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Time to stick a fork in this winter. 

Can I have the storm that hits southeast Nebraska?

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can I have the storm that hits southeast Nebraska?

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Feb '19 Bliz track out there, and just half a UP east up here. Could do that

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1  Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Posted
3 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Doesn't look like I'll get that skiing trip in I promised the kids at the end of February.  

 

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AI is much less bullish on the northward extent of warmth in that timeframe.  Overall though it does feel like it will be hard to avoid warming up.  

Posted
35 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Doesn't look like I'll get that skiing trip in I promised the kids at the end of February.  

 

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My trip to Colorado in late February is looking like . I already canceled my April trips and will probably cancel my March one. 

Posted

Here's an interesting oddity.  It's in the 50s in Iowa with northwesterly winds, and it's in the 20s/30s east of there with southerly winds.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's an interesting oddity.  It's in the 50s in Iowa with northwesterly winds, and it's in the 20s/30s east of there with southerly winds.

il_sfc.gif.a7679d3d8eccc997fef6c21ea17b9210.gif

That's some odd stuff for sure!

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1  Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Posted

@Tom trivia

2011 - A high temperature of 44F registered at Sky Harbor Airport in Phoenix, AZ, sets an all-time February record for the coldest high temperature for the city. 

But wait! There's more..

For the first time since the winter of 1978/79, Chicago has had average or above average snowfall in each month (Nov-Dec-Jan).

There's your Huckleberry!

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Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1  Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Posted

Mostly well above normal temps on the AIFS for the next two weeks. If we are going to repeat what we've done this winter it would suggest we get another cold period in March. Perhaps too late for arctic air by then but maybe one last hurrah for some snow. As it is, models showing a couple of wet periods down here at least. 

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Winter 25-26: Total Snow (7.0") Total Ice (0.1") 

Snow/Ice Events: 0.1" Dec 1 (ice)   Jan 24 (1.6"), Jan 25 (5.4") Coldest Low: 6F     Coldest High: 14

Winter 24-25: Total Snow (11.7")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 3F   Coldest High: 16F

Snow/Ice Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 7.4" Jan 9-10, 0.2" Jan 20, 0.2" (ice) Feb 12, 1.2" Feb 15, 2.8" Feb 18

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Posted
16 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

I've been wanting to see the AIFS latch on a bit better and the past couple runs have started to look more promising than prior runs.

12z shows this accumulating starting on Valentine's Day...

1771588800-x1P65VUeH7Q.png

 

13 hours ago, bud2380 said:

Doesn't look like I'll get that skiing trip in I promised the kids at the end of February.  

 

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All I know is that at least one of these maps is going to be wrong. You can't have snow when it's 70+ degrees, lol.

(What will probably happen is something in the middle, with highs in the 50s.)

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Posted

There has been around one inch of new snowfall that has been mixed with some freezing rain.  The overnight low was 25 at the current time there is light snowfall and the temperature is now up to 27. It will be mild today and cold tonight and for the weekend. It looks to warm up next week and we could see highs near 40. All in all the next couple of weeks look to be on the mild side.  And as of yet no big systems on the horizon.

KEY MESSAGES

FREEZING DRIZZLE TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS A.M., THEN COLDER AND WIND

COLD THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDA

MODERATING TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Temperature rising to near 35 by 11am, then falling to around 22 during the remainder of the day. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 6 to 11 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -4. North northwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 22. Wind chill values as low as -2. North northwest wind around 6 mph.

Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Calm wind.

Sunday

A 20 percent chance of snow showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 27. South southeast wind around 6 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14.

Monday

Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39.

Tuesday Night

A chance of rain showers before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 28.

Wednesday

A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 33.

Wednesday Night

A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20.

Thursday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 24/15 there was 0.4” of snowfall and there was 9” of snow on the ground. The highest wind gust was 24 MPH out of the SW.  For today the average H/L is 32/18 the record high of 54 was in 1938 the coldest high of 8 was in 1895 the record low of -9 was in 1895 and 1977 the warmest low of 43 was in 1904.  The wettest of 0.71” that fell as the record snow fall of 8.1” in 2008 the most snow on the ground was 21” in 2014.

Some weather history for February 6th 1978  A massive nor'easter buried the cities of the northeastern U.S. Storm totals included 18 inches at New York City, 16 inches at Philadelphia, and 14 inches at Baltimore. The Boston MA area received 25 to 30 inches in "The Great New England Blizzard" and the mayor outlawed travel in the city for an entire week. (David Ludlum) and in 2010  On February 5-6, a severe nor'easter, commonly referred to as Snowmageddon, impacted the east coast from North Carolina to New York. Some snowfall amounts include; 32.9 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport; 28.5 inches at the Philadelphia International Airport; 21.1 inches at the Pittsburgh International Airport; 18.2 in Atlantic City; Trace in Central Park.

 

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Posted

The models are showing split flow that doesn't phase.  Hopefully they come back to a more phased look or the drought will really begin to amplify. 

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Posted

Our coldest weather of the year is on the way over this weekend. Snow showers should begin from west to east across the area this evening with occasional snow showers and maybe a snow squall tomorrow morning. The high tomorrow will be overnight tonight but quickly fall into the single digits above zero during the day tomorrow with winds gusting as high as 50mph. The extreme cold warning goes into effect at 3pm tomorrow. Snow amounts will be light with between a coating and an inch at most. We should finally warm up to near freezing by Tuesday with a chance for some freezing rain or rain by Wednesday with temperatures just above freezing in most spots.

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Cyclical Climate Change Champion. There is no climate emergency. Climate remains a physical system, not a belief or proposition. The data I share will only focus on validated actual climate data and analysis for Chester County PA. I will occasionally share for comparison NOAA's altered historical temperature adjustments. In my view the only documented proof of human induced climate change are these NOAA data adjustments made to the actual raw data from the 1890's that continues through today.

East Nantmeal Twp. PA Average Seasonal Snow at 685 FT ASL (2003-Present) (36.0")  2025/26 Winter Events (15) Total Snow/Sleet to Date is 47.9" =  3/12 - 0.5" / 2/23 - 10.0" / 2/15 - 2.0" / 02/7 - 1.3" / 01/25 = 12.8" / 01/18 - 4.0" / 01/17 - 4.5" / 01/02 - 0.3" / 01/01 - 0.8" / 12/26 - 0.8" / 12/23 - 1.0" / 12/14 - 8.8" / 12/6 - 0.3" / 12/2 - 0.3" / 11/30 - 0.5" /Recent seasonal Snow totals  2024/25 (21.5") / 2023/24 (24.5") / 2022/23 (2.7") /2021/22 (20.5")  2020/21 snow  (52.2") /  2019/20 snow (5.8" )/ 2018/19 snow (35.1" )/ 2017/18 snow (58.5") / 2016/17 snow (24.0")/ 2015/16 snow (40.8")/ 2014/15 snow = (55.3") /2013/14 snow (80.0").

Check out the historical Chester County PA website at https://www.chescowx.com.  Follow me on twitter at https://twitter.com/ChescoWx and join us at the #1 social media source for all things Chester County weather on the Chester County Weather Page at https://www.facebook.com/groups/chescowx or on Instagram just follow us at chescoweather

NWS Forecast Office Philadelphia/Mount Holly  Skywarn® program observer CHPA-174

Posted

I took a quick glance at the 10mb/50mb maps this morning and while there is a break from Winter for many in the MW and Plains this coming weekend into the following week, I do see a reason that an anchor trough will substantiate into the West/Upper MW/Plains right around the 15th into the West coat first, then move into the Heartland by 17th and Lock.  I'm actually quite confident that there will be plenty of moisture for those who have been missed and a lot of snow chances for the 4 corners/Rockies into the Plains/Upper MW/N GL's.  Some hard cutters are likely as the through centers farther west instead of the East Coast.  The -PNA/SER is looking like it will last for the better part of FEB.  I do NOT believe it will be too amplified and there will be a LOT of Hudson Bay blocking steering storm systems as they eject out of the 4 corners. 

The period between the 17th-21st is one where a big storm is in the cards (CO LOW???) that will tug down the 1st shot of Arctic Air down the Plains.   Plenty of winter still in the cards this month.  Before then, however, it looks "iffy" and sorta like a Spring pattern where it can be cold enough to support snow later next week.  Let's see if the models pick up on this idea for around Valentine's Day weekend.

0z CMCE through Valentine's Day weekend...

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00z GEFS...

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Posted
28 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

We are very briefly above freezing for the first time since god knows when.

The last time Grand Rapids was above 32 was on January 16th when it reached 33

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Posted
25 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

We are very briefly above freezing for the first time since god knows when.  I lost track.   

Ya, I saw a graphic from WGN that Chicago has been sub 32F for 20 days??  That's a heckova long stretch of colder weather to support your snowy stretch.  Can we Finally agree that you have experienced a Good winter this year? All things considered, including the TORCH in the back half of DEC, it has been a Good (Great for some members up north and @Nikoarea) winter for the Lower Lakes.  The Christmas and New Year period wasn't to nice for snow lovers.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya, I saw a graphic from WGN that Chicago has been sub 32F for 20 days??  That's a heckova long stretch of colder weather to support your snowy stretch.  Can we Finally agree that you have experienced a Good winter this year? All things considered, including the TORCH in the back half of DEC, it has been a Good (Great for some members up north and @Nikoarea) winter for the Lower Lakes.  The Christmas and New Year period wasn't to nice for snow lovers.

I would prefer snow with some breaks, but yes this is a winter that reminds people that winter can still happen in places it's supposed to happen in.  

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Posted
3 hours ago, Clinton said:

The models are showing split flow that doesn't phase.  Hopefully they come back to a more phased look or the drought will really begin to amplify. 

The good vs of that hasn't shown up to the party for mby. The massive OHV storm may have been that, tho I didn't pay much attention tbh sitting on the side lines as I was.

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Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1  Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Posted
38 minutes ago, tStacsh said:

We are very briefly above freezing for the first time since god knows when.  I lost track.   

DON'T blink!

Winter 2025-26 Snow Total = 68.1  Largest Storm: 7.5" (11/29-30)    Snow/Ice Headlines: 20!!      Oct: 0.0 Nov:10.1 Dec: 17.1 Jan: 21.9  Feb: 7.1 Mar: 11.6 Apr: 0.3 (116% Normal Season)

Avg = 58.6"  (Harrison): 2024-25 = 55.3"   2023-24 = 53.1"             Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"          Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows) I have personally experienced: Jan 2014, Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1995, Nov 1989, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973

Posted
43 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro 12th and 13th

image.png

Zzzzzzzzzz. Oh look another east coast jack pot. Those ungrateful POS oit there dont deserve jack. Theyve had an epic 30 year run now and im f***** tired of it. 

Posted
1 hour ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Zzzzzzzzzz. Oh look another east coast jack pot. Those ungrateful POS oit there dont deserve jack. Theyve had an epic 30 year run now and im f***** tired of it. 

This will cheer you up

snku_acc-imp.us_ne.thumb.png.90c9c9b0b5e48cbf0ba25dba36ef76c4.png

  • Like 1
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Posted
17 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom trivia

But wait! There's more..

For the first time since the winter of 1978/79, Chicago has had average or above average snowfall in each month (Nov-Dec-Jan).

There's your Huckleberry!

Hey, I posted that almost a week ago!

  • Thanks 1
Posted
4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This will cheer you up

snku_acc-imp.us_ne.thumb.png.90c9c9b0b5e48cbf0ba25dba36ef76c4.png

Meanwhile ill be skiing on ice and rocks in 2 weeks in Colorado. The worst winter in my lifetime keeps rolling on while the people who deserve nothing keep cashing in. Wake me up when the northeast finally gets a dud winter. 

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