1/30 - 1/31 Long Duration Lake Effect Snow Event for NE IL, NW IN & SE WI

[Tom]

It is increasingly likely that a bonafide Lake Effect snow event is starting to hone in on a good chunk of the NWS LOT area for this FRI - SAT period and maybe hanging on into Sunday morning.  Lot's of interesting data to go over as this prolong period of winds off the lake in the right direction could conceivably DUMP a lot of snow for Chicago and areas nearby where the bands actually penetrate farther west/southwest into the burgs of Chicagoland.  Lets also include our MKE friends @MKEstorm @WildWisconsinWeather

 

First off, I really believe the GFS is leading the way in this particular set up and has not backed down at all over the past 24-48 hours of runs.  @indianajohn @Hoosier are looking pretty and I'm sure @Jaycee_CHIis diggin' it!!  Oh, and the fact that most of the snow that does start falling will be on a weekend night and daytime event!!!  Lets goooo!!!

0z GFS...

06z GFS...

 

 

0z GEFS...

 

[Tom]

This is some WILD wording from LOT...sorta reminds me of the squall warnings a couple weeks ago along the Arctic Front the plowed down from the north across the same areas that are going to get hit from this event.

Quote

Early Friday Morning through Friday Afternoon:

There is fairly good model agreement in the handling of the
opening stages of this event late Thursday night/Friday morning
at least. The combination of a westward-advancing land breeze,
southward-pivoting upper low, and associated inverted surface
trough is expected to drive an initial region of snow across
northeast Illinois and parts of northwest Indiana on Friday
morning. This first stage will feature the coldest 850 mb
temperatures of the event, and resultantly the deepest lake-
induced equilibrium levels (near 10 kft) and associated CAPE,
but also likely the most transient and fast-moving features.
Latest guidance depicts at least a moderately intense region of
LES rolling ashore across NE Illinois, including the Chicago-
area) around or just after daybreak Friday morning. Suspect
given the degree of convergence and thermodynamics involved that
current coarse-resolution guidance is underdoing the amount of
QPF at this range, with the potential for one to two inch/hour
type rates with this initial activity and a high ratio/powdery
snow. Residence time of this first round may not be all that
long, however, potentially limiting the accums to start.
Another trend is towards more significant inland penetration
given the more cohesive convergence associated with the
aforementioned inverted trough and BL lapse rates increasing
markedly through the morning. Some of the current guidance
suggest a potential for robust snow showers or even bona fide
squall-like activity pushing west and southward through the area
into early afternoon. Have expanded PoPs across most of the
forecast area to account for this, although am not currently as
aggressive as some of the latest guidance would suggest
(NAM/GFS).

 

[jstein91694]

Ukie led the way for the LE for the last weekend event so holding my breath for a GFS like outcome. I don't see being the most likely at the moment. If the Ukie or Euro hop on board with the band becoming more stationary then I would feel more confident in areas getting 6" plus from this. I think the RAP even caught on when in range and performed well so keep eyes peeled to those runs tomorrow. 

[Tom]

25 minutes ago, jstein91694 said:

Ukie led the way for the LE for the last weekend event so holding my breath for a GFS like outcome. I don't see being the most likely at the moment. If the Ukie or Euro hop on board with the band becoming more stationary then I would feel more confident in areas getting 6" plus from this. I think the RAP even caught on when in range and performed well so keep eyes peeled to those runs tomorrow. 

True, the GFS is the outlier at this point but I have a feeling it will sniff out the setup based on how the EC storm is evolving.  We should see better agreement today.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Hi res NAM has a couple swaths of 2-4” through parts of SE WI/NE Illinois.

[Bumblin Bman09]

Would love a nice band to setup in Gurnee.  However, most bars quickly move southward.  Thanks for the updates. 

[Hoosier]

Still a good deal of uncertainty with how far east the band moves late Friday into Saturday, and then how far west it comes back on Saturday.  Looking at the models and factoring in a dash of climo, I would perhaps give a slight lean toward Lake/Porter counties in Indiana as I'm not sure the band will come back quite as far west as is being advertised on some models.  Lots of uncertainty in this regard though. 

[Hoosier]

Will be interesting to see what LOT does as far as potential Winter Storm Watches.  Any watch may be a little difficult to message, especially for the Illinois counties as there are questions about whether the band will move back west into Illinois on Saturday, and even if it does, there could be a prolonged gap of time with no snow.  

[Hoosier]

Even though they're outside of my area, also keeping an eye on what IWX has to say.  Here's a paragraph from their overnight afd.

The better potential for more impactful LES still appears to be in
late Thursday night through Saturday morning periods in our
northerly flow belts as arctic high pressure drops south into the
Central US. Initial development may be somewhat disorganized to start
on Friday as an upper level vort lobe an associated trough drops
south with an unfavorably sheared wind profile. The bulk of this
profile does become north-northeast with 850 mb temps near -20C
Friday night into Saturday morning, possibly allowing a formidable
single band to wobble across far northeast IL and far northwest
IN. This could clip mainly southwest Berrien and La Porte counties
for a time with heavier snow. Still plenty of uncertainty at this
range, but something to monitor.

[Hoosier]

UKMET is fairly bullish for the Illinois shore, and all of it falls on Friday there as the band never comes back on Saturday.

[Hoosier]

Interestingly, 1/21/2005 has been showing up on the CIPS analogs.  That one had a decent synoptic system moving through though (clipper on steroids) which had some good lake enhancement before transitioning into a pure LES event.  The band went into Lake county Indiana and essentially stalled out for a while, dropping 2 feet of snow.    

Another one showing up on CIPS is 2/23/1989.  Per Storm Data, there was about 4" in downtown Chicago, but far eastern Cook county over into northwest Indiana had 12+, and once again, there was about 2 feet in parts of Lake county Indiana.  I read an old newspaper article about it and it mentioned how the snow band was wobbling around. 

Can't really take these analogs to the bank though, as even the most subtle differences can result in a much different outcome.  But a little interesting nonetheless.

[Hoosier]

We've only just begun

[Hoosier]

Going to take a minor miracle to nail this everywhere, but here are some first guesses on amounts.  

Racine/Kenosha:  4-8"

O'Hare:  3-6"

Downtown Chicago/Loop:  6-12"

Gary:  10-20"

I think the heaviest amounts will fall in northern Lake and/or northern Porter county.  

[Hoosier]

Banger of an afd from RC at LOT

 

Thursday Night through Saturday Night:

For the upcoming potentially impactful lake effect snow episode
Friday-Saturday, while there are still several key items of
lingering uncertainty, we`re starting to gain a bit more clarity
on bigger picture trends.

Here`s a general timeline:

- Friday (6am-6pm CST): A snow band (potentially with embedded
  heavy rates) will likely come ashore sometime between 6 AM and
  noon into northeast Illinois. In addition to producing a burst
  of heavy lake effect snow near the lake, there may be a 1-2 hour
  period of accumulating snow farther inland (unclear exactly how
  far west and south) into northern IL and perhaps parts of
  central IL, with some snow into far northwest Indiana as well.
  The uncertainty regarding time of arrival of the, and exact
  locations and residence time of heavier snow rates lowers
  confidence in the specific details. With that said, the daytime
  hours of Friday are presently the highest confidence timeframe
  (50-60%) for accumulating snow and travel impacts into northeast
  IL/Chicago metro.

- Friday Night (6pm-6am CST Sat): An intense lake effect snow band
  will probably take shape and potentially focus into parts of
  northwest Indiana (particularly Lake IN and Porter Counties/60%
  chance and 40-50% chance into northern Newton-Jasper). Some
  guidance (mainly recent GFS/GEFS simulations) suggests parts of
  northeast and eastern IL could be affected as well (~40-50%
  chance in official forecast) near/east of I-57. Confidence is
  low-medium in the details for this period, though we have medium
  to high confidence that there will be an intense band somewhere
  south of Lake Michigan. This is the most concerning time window
  for a more prolonged period of heavy/intense snowfall rates.

- Saturday (6am-6pm CST): If the heavy/intense lake effect band
  materializes and indeed focuses into northwest Indiana, it may
  meander back west towards the IL shore or even into far
  eastern/northeastern IL. However, this is a significant
  "wildcard" aspect of the forecast. An overall majority of the
  more recent model and ensemble data depicts the lake effect
  focus being primarily northwest Indiana. Once again, the
  GFS/GEFS has consistently depicted the banding shifting or
  remaining farther west into IL. We certainly can`t discount this
  scenario, though in our messaging we plan to emphasize a higher
  likelihood for far northwest Indiana (~60% into northern Lake
  IN). Our forecast confidence is low-medium in the details.
  There`s also uncertainty in how long into the day the core of
  the lake effect snow maintains heavy snowfall rates.

- Saturday Night (6pm-6am CST Sunday): The intensity of the snow
  should decrease during this time. Only about 20-30% of the the
  global ensemble members hang onto organized lake effect snow for
  a part of the night, supporting 20-30% PoPs from the northeast
  IL shore to far northwest Indiana.

Due to the notable uncertainty still evident in the Friday-
Saturday accumulating lake effect snow details, we deferred any
winter weather headlines issuance to a later forecast issuance.

Meteorological Synopsis:

Late Thursday night, very cold air over the still relatively mild
open waters of southern Lake Michigan (not expecting much
deleterious effect from ice cover in the nearshore) will likely
result in the development of a lake induced meso- low accompanied
by heavy snowfall rates. This will be the result of very favorable
thermodynamics augmented by large scale ascent from an incoming
mid-level trough axis. There`s overall solid agreement in this
general scenario.

Into the day on Friday, as is very common in these setups, there`s
a large guidance spread in the evolution of the band out over the
lake. From a somewhat bigger picture perspective, the sharp east
to west mid-level trough axis traversing the region should result
in the meso-low related banding moving southwest into IL. This
could very well have at least 1-2 hours of heavy snow rates near
the lake in IL (including Chicago) given inversion heights almost
up to 10kft and strong ascent through the DGZ. With a time of
arrival variance from as early as 6-7am to as late as 11am-1pm,
this certainly lowers confidence in the details as alluded to in
the general timeline. The band could take on a squall-like
orientation westward into northern IL, though duration of
accumulating snow inland would probably be only an hour or two.

After the passage of the mid-level trough axis late Friday into
Friday night, inversion heights should come down some and
thermodynamics may become slightly less favorable with time. Lake
effect parameters should still remain quite favorable though for a
well organized band and possible mesolow. The consensus low-level
and boundary layer flow orientation (N to NNW) during this time
conceptually favors northwest Indiana, though it`s always tricky
when meso-lows are present. It`s close to impossible at this range
to accurately predict how much or little the heaviest banding may
stall over a given location. With last weekend`s event in mind and
it`s 25-30:1 or higher snow ratios, snowfall rates could
conceivably get out of hand Friday night into Saturday morning in
the heart of the band.

Similar to warm-season convective forecasting, lake effect snow
(also convection) is often affected by what happened prior. So
exact locations are only a rough idea, but again, conceptually
should favor far northwest Indiana. The GFS/GEFS has been most
aggressively far west with the band positioning and also slower to
degrade lake effect parameters. Wobbles in the orientation of lake
induced convergence axis could bring the band(s) back near or
onto the IL shore for a time on Saturday before the snow rates
start to notably diminish. We`re a bit skeptical of the GFS/GEFS
insistence on keeping the band(s) organized all the way into
Saturday evening, so our official PoPs are only in the 30-40%
range Saturday afternoon and 20-30% range Saturday night.

Castro

[Jaycee_CHI]

48 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Banger of an afd from RC at LOT

 

With last weekend`s event in mind and
it`s 25-30:1 or higher snow ratios, snowfall rates could
conceivably get out of hand Friday night into Saturday morning in
the heart of the band.

Similar to warm-season convective forecasting, lake effect snow
(also convection) is often affected by what happened prior. So
exact locations are only a rough idea, but again, conceptually
should favor far northwest Indiana. The GFS/GEFS has been most
aggressively far west with the band positioning and also slower to
degrade lake effect parameters. Wobbles in the orientation of lake
induced convergence axis could bring the band(s) back near or
onto the IL shore for a time on Saturday before the snow rates
start to notably diminish. We`re a bit skeptical of the GFS/GEFS
insistence on keeping the band(s) organized all the way into
Saturday evening, so our official PoPs are only in the 30-40%
range Saturday afternoon and 20-30% range Saturday night.

Castro

WHOAA. I wonder what they’re thinking ratios will actually be then — I think the highest ive ever got personally was last weekend with it being 40:1 (or close to). I definitely agree that it’s possible for them just as high or higher though given how awfully cold it is and the current snowpack.  
 

I’ll take 6-12” ANY DAY though, especially on top of 10”! I haven’t seen snow cover above 12” in a few years I don’t think, and I’m obsessed. The city is gorgeous when there’s snow like that and makes it wayyyy easier to tolerate the cold. Picked such a good year to come back downtown! 
  

OMG BTW, did you see that they might get “gulf effect” snow in Tampa?!? Have you ever seen that happen before? So curious to hear your take! 

[Hoosier]

40 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

WHOAA. I wonder what they’re thinking ratios will actually be then — I think the highest ive ever got personally was last weekend with it being 40:1 (or close to). I definitely agree that it’s possible for them just as high or higher though given how awfully cold it is and the current snowpack.  
 

I’ll take 6-12” ANY DAY though, especially on top of 10”! I haven’t seen snow cover above 12” in a few years I don’t think, and I’m obsessed. The city is gorgeous when there’s snow like that and makes it wayyyy easier to tolerate the cold. Picked such a good year to come back downtown! 
  

OMG BTW, did you see that they might get “gulf effect” snow in Tampa?!? Have you ever seen that happen before? So curious to hear your take! 

I've had lake effect that was so light and feathery that I was literally able to blow on it and watch it scatter.  Some of the lift will be above the dgz but there's still a good amount of lift progged in the dgz, so I would definitely expect something like 25:1 or greater.

I do remember Tampa getting gulf effect snow some years ago, but can't remember when it was.  Takes a pretty special airmass around there of course.

[Hoosier]

I could live with the 21z RAP.  I don't think it's far enough west though.

[Bumblin Bman09]

 

latest from NWS.  

[Hoosier]

The models that were farther east with the lake effect band on Saturday have generally shifted a bit west on the 00z cycle.  So we actually have quite good agreement now (as if that means a whole lot when it comes to lake effect bands, haha) on the band moving back west into Lake county Indiana on Saturday, and possibly including areas near the Illinois shore too.  Overall though, I think whatever happens Friday could make or break the event for the Illinois side of the lake because even if the band gets back into Illinois on Saturday, it will be in gradually weakening state.  

[Hoosier]

12z HRRR and 15z RAP really honing in on Lake and Porter counties in IN, with the RAP being more generous farther west.

Will probably be making some changes to my first call.  Have some new numbers in mind but want to get a peek at a couple of the short range 18z runs.

[Hoosier]

LOT aviation

 

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1137 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Aviation forecast concerns for the 18Z TAFs:

- Sharp cold front to bring wind shift to the NE with gusts
  approaching 25 kts mid-morning Friday.

- Lake-enhanced convective snow showers expected with/behind the
  cold front, with brief LIFR conditions possible along with a
  quick 1-3" accumulations for the Chicago terminals.

- Additional lake-effect snow showers Friday afternoon
  especially for the ORD-MDW-GYY area, with another period of
  IFR or lower conditions possible late.

Surface high pressure ridge just west/south of the terminals
will maintain quiet, VFR weather conditions through tonight.

A robust mid-level disturbance and accompanying sharp surface
cold front are expected to move across the terminals mid-late
morning Friday. The front will drive a wind shift from modest
north-northwest winds to blustery northeast winds with gusts
near 25 kts, as well as a period of lake-enhanced snow and
convective snow showers with and immediately behind the front
which is likely to produce a period of IFR/brief LIFR conditions
in moderate snow through midday along with a quick 1-3" inch
accumulation of snow for ORD/MDW/DPA. RFD may also see a period
of IFR conditions with snow showers behind the front as well.
Scattered lighter snow showers will likely persist during the
afternoon, with less impactful conditions than immediately
behind the front. However, high-res guidance continues to depict
the potential for another period of more impactful snow showers
for the Chicago terminals later in the afternoon, on the nose of
a developing lake-effect band. Have indicated a prob30 for this
at ORD/MDW, with MDW`s closer proximity to the shore potentially
providing lower conditions (LIFR?) than at ORD a little farther
inland, though confidence in this level of detail at this
distance is low. There is also an indication that northeast
winds may shift back to the north or even north-northwest at ORD
and MDW toward early Friday evening.

At this time GYY appears to be on the eastern fringe of this
activity through the 18Z end of this TAF period, though will
likely see deteriorating condition later Friday/Friday night.

Ratzer

[Tony]

Will be short lived in the western burbs but will be ripping for a couple hours.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

12z HRRR and 15z RAP really honing in on Lake and Porter counties in IN, with the RAP being more generous farther west.

Will probably be making some changes to my first call.  Have some new numbers in mind but want to get a peek at a couple of the short range 18z runs.

Your whereabouts was inquired about over on Amwx yesterday. Said you were busy tracking this incoming LES storm!

[Hoosier]

On 1/28/2026 at 2:09 PM, Hoosier said:

Going to take a minor miracle to nail this everywhere, but here are some first guesses on amounts.  

Racine/Kenosha:  4-8"

O'Hare:  3-6"

Downtown Chicago/Loop:  6-12"

Gary:  10-20"

I think the heaviest amounts will fall in northern Lake and/or northern Porter county.  

Updated call.  Generally cutting amounts for most of these places, although I left Gary alone as whether it's Gary or just across the border in Porter county, I do think that 10-20" amounts are likely somewhere (perhaps even isolated higher if the stall is very prolonged). 

I think some models may be underplaying the initial snows a bit, but if they're not, then it's possible that I'm still too high.  

I think ratios are likely to exceed the Kuchera output, at least at times, particularly close the lake.  Kuchera is based on the max temp in the column, so it is likely being affected by the relatively warmer marine influence.  But it's obviously not even going to be close to freezing near the shore, and the good omega/dgz overlap should allow for excellent ratios that could exceed the Kuchera output.

Racine/Kenosha:  3-6"

O'Hare:  2-5"

Downtown Chicago/Loop:  4-8"

Gary:  10-20"

[Jaycee_CHI]

46 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Updated call.  Generally cutting amounts for most of these places, although I left Gary alone as whether it's Gary or just across the border in Porter county, I do think that 10-20" amounts are likely somewhere (perhaps even isolated higher if the stall is very prolonged). 

I think some models may be underplaying the initial snows a bit, but if they're not, then it's possible that I'm still too high.  

I think ratios are likely to exceed the Kuchera output, at least at times, particularly close the lake.  Kuchera is based on the max temp in the column, so it is likely being affected by the relatively warmer marine influence.  But it's obviously not even going to be close to freezing near the shore, and the good omega/dgz overlap should allow for excellent ratios that could exceed the Kuchera output.

Racine/Kenosha:  3-6"

O'Hare:  2-5"

Downtown Chicago/Loop:  4-8"

Gary:  10-20"

Aww well I hope you get the higher end!! Fingers crossed

Idk, the models don’t scream a huge event for downtown to me just yet. Maybe I’m underplaying it as i just now kind of briefly looked over everything, but it seems like it’s definitely a better setup for NW Indiana vs here, even though it’ll obviously be close and lake effect is super unpredictable. I was really surprised they issued a winter storm watch tbh!

im going to obviously just expect the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully one of us gets a lot (I think it’ll be you!!)

[Tony]

19 minutes ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Aww well I hope you get the higher end!! Fingers crossed

Idk, the models don’t scream a huge event for downtown to me just yet. Maybe I’m underplaying it as i just now kind of briefly looked over everything, but it seems like it’s definitely a better setup for NW Indiana vs here, even though it’ll obviously be close and lake effect is super unpredictable. I was really surprised they issued a winter storm watch tbh!

im going to obviously just expect the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully one of us gets a lot (I think it’ll be you!!)

Being on this side of the lake, history tells us don't expect too much. This is a year where you really just don't know what to expect. Because of this, optimistic that something special may happen on this side. Hope it pans out for the lakefront.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Jaycee_CHI said:

Aww well I hope you get the higher end!! Fingers crossed

Idk, the models don’t scream a huge event for downtown to me just yet. Maybe I’m underplaying it as i just now kind of briefly looked over everything, but it seems like it’s definitely a better setup for NW Indiana vs here, even though it’ll obviously be close and lake effect is super unpredictable. I was really surprised they issued a winter storm watch tbh!

im going to obviously just expect the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully one of us gets a lot (I think it’ll be you!!)

Thanks.  Hope you do well too!  Expect the worst and hope for the best is a great mindset especially with LES.

I'd rather be in eastern Lake county or even Porter just to feel like I have a tad bit of breathing room.  Right now there is like no breathing room whatsoever, lol.  At least there is some historical precedent for what some of the aggressive models have been advertising around here as I can think of at least a couple 1-2 feet LES (or almost all LES) events here in the past 20 years or so.  Then going farther back there was the 1989 event that I posted about yesterday.  Chances like this one don't come around often so hopefully it works out!  

[Hoosier]

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I would love to add a couple fluffy inches to the still solid snowpack.  Due to these cold temps and some of the lowest layer being less fluffy it will be harder than normal to pulverize this fluff I think.

[Bumblin Bman09]

I’ll take 2-3” in Gurnee (Lake, IL).  Although my son is flying back to PITT on Friday early afternoon .  Hopefully ORD isn’t too bad.  

[indianajohn]

Snow   leaving work in Hobart Indiana 

[Hoosier]

32 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Snow   leaving work in Hobart Indiana 

00z HRRR comin in hot for us!

[Hoosier]

Band is actually still going at the end of the run.

[MKEstorm]

@Tom, is it possible to include Southeast Wisconsin in the title of this thread? Models continue to show Eastern Wisconsin as far north as Manitowoc County in the possible lake-effect snow threat! Thank You

[Hoosier]

LOT evening update

 

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Forecast appears on track with no big changed planned this
evening. Did move the end time of the winter storm watch for
central and southern Cook County to midnight Friday night as
lake effect band will likely shift east into Indiana sometime
Friday evening. While it could shift back west into Illinois
sometime Saturday morning, that would likely be handled with a
separate headline.

Guidance has been trending a bit slower with the arrival of the
lake enhanced surface trough Friday morning. Slowed the timing
of the snow arrival down just a bit Friday morning to trend in
this direction, but it is still well within the advisory timing.
Still looks likely that a band of potentially intense snow will
accompany this trough as it moves inland, with a quick 1-3" of
snow possible in the advisory area, especially the northern
suburbs.

Decided to upgrade Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana to a
winter storm warning, as the probabilities of totals over 6
inches near the lake are very high. Given the likelihood of
mesoscale oscillations in the position of the band, which are
nearly impossible to predict with much lead time, it will be
hard to pin down precisely where the highest snowfall totals
will end up. Should the band end up stationary in one area for
extended period, then isolated totals over a foot would
certainly be possible.

One note caution, for those looking at the somewhat modest QPF
being offered in some of the high resolution models, keep in
mind that snow to liquid ratios will likely end up in the 30:1
range or higher! Given the exceptionally favorable lake effect
snow parameters, seems likely that this band will likely produce
snowfall rates of 2"+ per hour at times Friday night into
Saturday morning.

- Izzi

[Hoosier]

Digging into things more, I think it is quite possible that the LES band will be going until Saturday evening.  Inversion heights are marginal and the lift is primarily below the dgz by then, suggesting smaller snowflake size, but delta T doesn't drop below the threshold for LES until late Saturday.

[Tom]

It appears LOT issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central & Southern COOK... @Jaycee_CHI might reel one in!   @metallica470 are you in the game? @ChiTownSnowmight catch something today as well.  I know @jstein91694is likely in the heart of COOK so good luck to all and I know I missed a few others on here.  Looks like a nice little "gift" from nature to add a bit more FRESH snow on top of the Dirty snow I'm sure.

[jstein91694]

34 minutes ago, Tom said:

It appears LOT issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central & Southern COOK... @Jaycee_CHI might reel one in!   @metallica470 are you in the game? @ChiTownSnowmight catch something today as well.  I know @jstein91694is likely in the heart of COOK so good luck to all and I know I missed a few others on here.  Looks like a nice little "gift" from nature to add a bit more FRESH snow on top of the Dirty snow I'm sure.

Hires not looking the best unless in NWI but should eek out a couple inches at least. It's something at least lol

[Tom]

3 minutes ago, jstein91694 said:

Hires not looking the best unless in NWI but should eek out a couple inches at least. It's something at least lol

Some times the models have a difficult time to pin down the wind directions and I'm seeing a slight shift west towards the lakeshore on SAT.  This could easily sneak in the band into central COOK.  I always have my hopes up during these events as the lake bands have a mind of their own.

Looking at the radar, there several "mini" vorticities forming over the lake right and will push inland.

[jstein91694]

I'm thinking if this initial slug doesn't push all the way out to Rockford like some models were showing then better odds the eventual band stays more on IL side. Just a feeling. Plus I doubt the band just goes poof Saturday. It should continue at lighter rates on this side longer than modeled.