1/30 - 1/31 Long Duration Lake Effect Snow Event for NE IL, NW IN & SE WI

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jstein91694 said:

I'm thinking if this initial slug doesn't push all the way out to Rockford like some models were showing then better odds the eventual band stays more on IL side. Just a feeling. Plus I doubt the band just goes poof Saturday. It should continue at lighter rates on this side longer than modeled. 

Exactly, this is on point with what I'm expecting from this set up...it's going to be nice seeing snow fly again during the daytime and pound for a bit on a Friday!  

[Tom]

For example, you can already see today's 12z HRRR run suggesting for of a NE Flow into SAT...

[jstein91694]

25 minutes ago, Tom said:

For example, you can already see today's 12z HRRR run suggesting for of a NE Flow into SAT...

Already snowing here too yet band still over the lake 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, jstein91694 said:

Already snowing here too yet band still over the lake 

I was gonna say, it appears that some light snow/flurries already pushing inland ahead of the main band...

[Tom]

the band is knocking on @Jaycee_CHI doorsteps right now...actually, the live cams already show it is snowing!!!

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

[Tom]

It's 10F with the snow flying in Downtown Chitown...gosh I wish I there right now!!!  These are the type of snow days that I love watching when its so cold and "Snow on Snow"...

 

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/skydeck/?cam=chicagoskydeck

[metallica470]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

It appears LOT issued a Winter Storm Watch for Central & Southern COOK... @Jaycee_CHI might reel one in!   @metallica470 are you in the game? @ChiTownSnowmight catch something today as well.  I know @jstein91694is likely in the heart of COOK so good luck to all and I know I missed a few others on here.  Looks like a nice little "gift" from nature to add a bit more FRESH snow on top of the Dirty snow I'm sure.

Talk about cutting it close!  I sure do miss living in the Loop!  I am now in southwest Cook County in Orland Park now about 20 miles from the lake.  Trends don't look to great for much of anything coming out this way and wonder if the ice would have any additional impact how far inland the snow makes it.  Keeping my fingers crossed something makes it out this way this morning or later tonight!  This sure looks like @Hoosier is in a prime spot for this one!

[metallica470]

And here's the upgrade to a warning: 

Quote

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
919 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

ILZ104-105-310130-
/O.UPG.KLOT.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-260131T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KLOT.WS.W.0003.260130T1519Z-260131T0600Z/
/O.EXT.KLOT.WS.A.0001.260131T0600Z-260131T1800Z/
Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Oak Park, Orland Park, Calumet City,
Lemont, Cicero, Oak Forest, Chicago, Oak Lawn, La Grange, and
Park Forest
919 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH 
SATURDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy lake effect snow. Snow 
  accumulations locally in excess of 6 inches, particularly in areas 
  near the lake. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow 
  possible, with additional accumulations possible into Saturday 
  morning.

* WHERE...Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, until midnight CST tonight. 
  For the Winter Storm Watch, from late tonight through Saturday 
  morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult at times, with near white 
  out conditions and snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour under 
  the most intense portions of the band through this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...A burst of accumulating snow is expected 
  through early afternoon, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour at 
  times. This will make for hazardous travel conditions. While a 
  short break in the heavy snow is possible for a period this 
  afternoon, a second round of intense lake effect snow is expected 
  to bring at least a few hour period of snowfall rates up to 2 
  inches per hour this evening. Finally, the lake effect snow band 
  may shift back westward along the state line and bring another 
  period of heavy lake effect snow for several hours Saturday 
  morning.

 

[Tom]

@WildWisconsinWeather @MKEstorm looks like an "eye like" structure on radar about to hit MKE...

[Tom]

Pound town in Downtown Chitown...

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

[WildWisconsinWeather]

34 minutes ago, Tom said:

@WildWisconsinWeather @MKEstorm looks like an "eye like" structure on radar about to hit MKE...

Radar went out for about 20 mins but I like where I sit in a potential pivot zone.

[Jaycee_CHI]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

the band is knocking on @Jaycee_CHI doorsteps right now...actually, the live cams already show it is snowing!!!

https://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/field/?cam=fieldmuseum

It’s snowing harder right now than it was last week even! I’m working but I’ll take a video soon!! 

[Hoosier]

Haven't really had time to dig into anything but the new LOT afd mentioned that the 3 km NAM is too far east.  I like hearing that.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Not sure why MKX is not issuing a Snow Squall Warning for this, like the perfect scenario to do so.

[Hoosier]

Obviously this could all get shot to heck given the inherent difficulties with LES, but locally, my expectation is for burst(s) of heavy snow later this afternoon and particularly early evening.  I do expect the band to shift east of here, possibly for up to several hours before shifting back in sometime after 3 am to as late as 6 am.  Good confidence in the band still having healthy rates at that time.  Looks increasingly certain that the band will also get back into Chicago during the morning.  Can't even completely rule out the possibility of the band nudging west of me for a time tomorrow.

If the band does not shift out of here overnight for some reason, then things are gonna get real interesting.  I don't think that is the likely scenario, but will be watching the trends very closely.  

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Measured 2”, most in about 90 mins, just now.

[MKEstorm]

1 hour ago, WildWisconsinWeather said:

Not sure why MKX is not issuing a Snow Squall Warning for this, like the perfect scenario to do so.

They just gave us a Special Weather Statement!

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=WIZ066&warncounty=WIC079&firewxzone=WIZ066&local_place1=Greendale WI&product1=Special+Weather+Statement&lat=42.9357&lon=-88.0015

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

WIZ065-066-071-072-302030-
Waukesha-Milwaukee-Racine-Kenosha-
Including the cities of Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin,
Menomonee Falls, Muskego, Milwaukee, Racine, and Kenosha
1124 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

...A HEAVY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...

A lake-effect snow band has moved onshore over Milwaukee County
and will move south-southwest into eastern Waukesha, Racine, and
Kenosha Counties. Expect a burst of heavy snow, quick
accumulations on roadways, and rapid reductions in visibility when
traveling into this snow band. Reduce speed and leave extra time
for travel.

$$

CMiller

 

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

9 minutes ago, WildWisconsinWeather said:

Measured 2”, most in about 90 mins, just now.

Nice.  Sun is actually shining here.  Wasn't expecting much here from this initial stuff anyway.

[Hoosier]

Can see the ice buildup near the shore of Lake Michigan.

[Hoosier]

Mesolows/other nuances could disrupt the long firehose look, but HRRR tries to do that later in the run.

[Tony]

Ripping pretty good in DuPage County

[Tom]

Nice...

[BLIZZARD09]

NOTHING HERE EXCEPT SOME MESSING AROUND FLURRIES--hardly the "impactfu"l snow the service has spoken about

[Tom]

Cool live shots watching planes land at ORD...you gotta have the nerves of steel landing in blinding snow...

 

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

Nice...

They've been in a decent spot.  The better returns have been kind of scattered/not widespread.

Sun still out here.

[Tom]

Orland Park should be doing good...

Edit: The band is just north of there.

[metallica470]

8 minutes ago, Tom said:

Orland Park should be doing good...

Had a quick dusting this morning, but sun is fully out now.  Looking at the radar, it looks like it's well inland now almost right over the LOT office!  If that's the case, hopefully that keeps up and swings this way more south in a bit!

[Hoosier]

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Chicago IL
201 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     Snow             Morton Grove            42.04N 87.78W
01/30/2026  M3.7 Inch        Cook    

[FV-Mike]

Puking snow ATM

[MI Storm]

Those are some delicous bands coming off the lake. 

[MI Storm]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Orland Park should be doing good...

Edit: The band is just north of there.

The lending firend strikes again. 

[jstein91694]

Ironic that near the lake I've only gotten like .5" and it only snowed for 30minutes

[Hoosier]

2.5" at ORD so far.

[Hoosier]

There's been a trend toward somewhat warmer 850 mb temps over the lake on recent runs.  Just showing the Euro here, but the general trend is apparent across models.  Pivotal's color scheme is easier to see on the 850 mb anomalies so I posted that instead of the actual 850 mb temps.

[Hoosier]

fwiw, the 18z Euro is quicker to bring the band back west overnight.  Looks like it gets it back to the Chicago shoreline around 4 am.  But I would probably rely more on the short range models and actual observational trends at this point.

[Jaycee_CHI]

 

 

it’s an absolute snow globe outside so I HAD to take a break from working and get a video of it also RIP Catherine O’Hara was watching a compilation when I recorded this but I found that song to be really fitting. 

[Hoosier]

Pretty much whiteout conditions at the moment.  Unfortunately, these rates will be fleeting.  Based on radar trends, snow looks to taper off soon here.  But, the band over the lake is very slowly creeping west and will be hitting Porter county good for a while once it comes on land.  

[Hoosier]

Porter county the place to be for now and a while yet.  Inland snow fading with gradual organization into a more classic LES band.

[indianajohn]

44 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Porter county the place to be for now and a while yet.  Inland snow fading with gradual organization into a more classic LES band.

Pretty much i65 the dividing line 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, indianajohn said:

Pretty much i65 the dividing line 

We may have to wait for this, as the stuff over Porter county does not appear like it wants to shift our way.