February 2026 Weather in the PNW

[kokaneekidz]

Even the garden railroad in the South is snowed in!

 

[Issaquah alps]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Definitely chilly on the Aifs ens. Probably good enough for some wet lowland snow.

What's the 850hpa temp that you think is good enough for lowland wet snow?

[Deweydog]

Page two and it’s only the 1st!

The buzz is building!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Page two and it’s only the 1st!

The buzz is building!

And the fuzz is dropping. 

[Slushy Inch]

29 minutes ago, Issaquah alps said:

What's the 850hpa temp that you think is good enough for lowland wet snow?

I believe it’s generally -6 but I’m looking at the pattern as a whole.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The MJO is overperforming. Indian Ocean concentration is what we want to see. Models were wrong I guess.

I think we might be seeing something good in a couple weeks. Euro is already picking up on it.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Had some lightning strikes our way

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The mid Feb predictions on here definitely seem to remain plausible. There was a bit of uncertainty these past couple of days, but things are back on track with the MJO and PV. The Pacific will definitely shut down in about 10-15 days, then we just have to work out the details. Compared to December, we have a few more things working in our favor.

@MossMan's lucky day (Feb 14) seems to be a good call for now.

[Timmy]

2 hours ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I leave for a cruise to Cabo on the 15th.  If it delivers, you're all welcome. 

I’ll be in Hawaii from the 9-18th so it makes sense that it would happen while I’m gone 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

On 1/20/2026 at 11:12 PM, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

I think Mid February holds some decent potential.

Far less undercutting expected than earlier forecast. This will keep us dry and under a +PNA ridge for longer than earlier forecast. That means a better pre-configuration to retrograde once the tropics become favorable in a few weeks. A far cry from the sloppy mess we had in December that required a prograde to work.

It also means very little mountain snow.. but the alternative would be a bunch of ARs and rain. So let's give it a few weeks and we might be seeing some Pepto again.

On 1/18/2026 at 10:08 AM, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

I wouldn't be surprised if the entire February goes by being a dud, but mid February might work out. It just depends on if we get an SSW and how the polar vortex ends up. 

But based on how winters been going, it's probably just going to be more of the same. -QBO has done all the damage it could do in terms of boosting the MJO activity in the Pacific, but failed to do the one things that's actually useful for us in the PNW (boosting SSW action).

The Mid Feb signal was noticeable since 2 weeks ago, and the weeklies had a handle on the idea for a while as well. Phil even liked the second one. Pretty nice that its still holding up, and we have ensemble support from the EPS and EPS AI. The Euro OP also delivers lowland snow right about then. GFS is useless as usual.

Still could be a bust like the late Dec signal, but I can't be pessimistic about a chance.

[Ken in Wood Village]

Some more lightning strikes

[Edmonds Husky]

55 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The MJO is overperforming. Indian Ocean concentration is what we want to see. Models were wrong I guess.

I think we might be seeing something good in a couple weeks. Euro is already picking up on it.

Hail Mary incoming?

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

Just now, Edmonds Husky said:

Hail Mary incoming?

Possibly. The models don't look too great now though. Not really showing a retrograde...

[Edmonds Husky]

It’s not over until it’s March.

and even then we can see something that melts by the end of the day 

[fubario]

4 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

Hail Mary incoming?

I'm old enough to remember this lol

[Issaquah alps]

52 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The mid Feb predictions on here definitely seem to remain plausible. There was a bit of uncertainty these past couple of days, but things are back on track with the MJO and PV. The Pacific will definitely shut down in about 10-15 days, then we just have to work out the details. Compared to December, we have a few more things working in our favor.

@MossMan's lucky day (Feb 14) seems to be a good call for now.

Just curious, where (which models) are showing the Pacific shutting down? The ECMWF AIFS is showing only a prograde pattern IMHO.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, fubario said:

I'm old enough to remember this lol

These too melted quickly on warm February asphalt.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 62F IMBY.

[Edmonds Husky]

2 hours ago, Issaquah alps said:

What's the 850hpa temp that you think is good enough for lowland wet snow?

-8C.

[Issaquah alps]

7 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

-8C.

That was my understanding based on theory, I was curious to know if folks are used to see snow with warmer temps thanks to convective cooling.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

39 minutes ago, Issaquah alps said:

Just curious, where (which models) are showing the Pacific shutting down? The ECMWF AIFS is showing only a prograde pattern IMHO.

Initially yeah it looks like a prograde, but it should shut down after that. Outside of the 360 hr range, so I guess 10-15 days isn't quite right on my part.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The Pacific starts to slow down at this point on the ECMWF AIFS.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

31 minutes ago, Issaquah alps said:

That was my understanding based on theory, I was curious to know if folks are used to see snow with warmer temps thanks to convective cooling.

With elevation you can get snow with -4 or -5 C

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The Mid Feb signal was noticeable since 2 weeks ago, and the weeklies had a handle on the idea for a while as well. Phil even liked the second one. Pretty nice that its still holding up, and we have ensemble support from the EPS and EPS AI. The Euro OP also delivers lowland snow right about then. GFS is useless as usual.

Still could be a bust like the late Dec signal, but I can't be pessimistic about a chance.

He also said a couple days ago that he sees nothing to change the pattern this month.

[Front Ranger]

33 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The Pacific starts to slow down at this point on the ECMWF AIFS.

Sign number #17 that it's been a tough winter....it's February and we are still looking at 360 hr maps for something good maybe starting to develop.

[Omegaraptor]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

He also said a couple days ago that he sees nothing to change the pattern this month.

He also said a little while back that the MJO should become less favorable for Western torching in mid-late February. I believe he said things could flip cold in the West if a bunch of factors lined up right, but it's unlikely.

[Issaquah alps]

31 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

With elevation you can get snow with -4 or -5 C

Yeah I am trying to establish a baseline for my location at 1000ft. Theoretically -6°C does it, marginal with higher temps I guess.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

AI EURO looks good. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, Issaquah alps said:

Yeah I am trying to establish a baseline for my location at 1000ft. Theoretically -6°C does it, marginal with higher temps I guess.

1000’ -4 would do it in favorable conditions 

[gomariners]

Jan 2026 in review for my house!

[Front Ranger]

It has commenced.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

It has commenced.

Right on time for the west.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

Right on time for the west.

Just saw an article showing a cold back half of February and early March for most of the lower 48.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This regular season is as bad as Oregon's basketball team.

[Number1AIFSfan]

Ok this needs some tweaks still but I think this is one of the only even remotely cold AIFS runs we've had all season. Winter is still cancelled for now, but given the performance of the AIFS so far this year and the very faint mid-February signal we've had for the last couple weeks, I'm willing to at least hear it out.

Ensembles still not great, but they do at least have a fairly strong signal for cool-ish. Just not outright cold.

[Deweydog]

Wife bought these today and they’re DELICIOUS.

Conflicting reports!

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

4 minutes ago, Number1AIFSfan said:

Ok this needs some tweaks still but I think this is one of the only even remotely cold AIFS runs we've had all season. Winter is still cancelled for now, but given the performance of the AIFS so far this year and the very faint mid-February signal we've had for the last couple weeks, I'm willing to at least hear it out.

Ensembles still not great, but they do at least have a fairly strong signal for cool-ish. Just not outright cold.

First wave is a prograde caused by a weak +EAMT that will push/prograde the trough over us (early-mid Feb). Those can work, but it may not be "crazy cold"

Eventually, a retrograde/fixation of -PNA should happen which can help the AK ridging become more solid (mid-late Feb). Way too far out still.

But really going forward, I expect things to switch to a much cooler pattern that will certainly bless the snow deprived mountains- and probably at least bring some interesting stuff to the lowlands.

Worst case, its a similar to bust to end of Dec and early Jan, where we only see spotty lowland snowfall... the tradeoff is the higher sun angles BUT a slightly better MJO signal / tropics to push things into the right configuration.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

3 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

First wave is a prograde caused by a weak +EAMT that will push/prograde the trough over us (early-mid Feb). Those can work, but it may not be "crazy cold"

Eventually, a retrograde/fixation of -PNA should happen which can help the AK ridging become more solid (mid-late Feb). Way too far out still.

But really going forward, I expect things to switch to a much cooler pattern that will certainly bless the snow deprived mountains- and probably at least bring some interesting stuff to the lowlands.

Worst case, its a similar to bust to end of Dec and early Jan, where we only see spotty lowland snowfall... the tradeoff is the higher sun angles BUT a slightly better MJO signal / tropics to push things into the right configuration.

Oh and I forgot the most important thing.

A probable SSW and PV disruption may make things a bit more exciting

[Number1AIFSfan]

5 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

First wave is a prograde caused by a weak +EAMT that will push/prograde the trough over us (mid Feb). Those can work, but it may not be "crazy cold"

Eventually, a retrograde/fixation of -PNA should happen which can help the AK ridging become more solid (end Feb). Way too far out still.

But really going forward, I expect things to switch to a much cooler pattern that will certainly bless the snow deprived mountains- and probably at least bring some interesting stuff to the lowlands.

Worst case, its a similar to bust to end of Dec and early Jan, where we only see spotty lowland snowfall... the tradeoff is the higher sun angles BUT a slightly better MJO signal / tropics to push things into the right configuration.

I'm sure many weenies here will vehemently disagree, but I am fine with no crazy cold if we get decent snow from it. Cold is purely a vehicle for snow for me. I don't give a crap at all about cold anomalies without snow. I'll take 31° and heavy snow over single digits or teens with no snow every single time.

Less ideal with February SUN ANGLES, but we'll have to take what we can get at this point.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

Just now, Number1AIFSfan said:

I'm sure many weenies here will vehemently disagree, but I am fine with no crazy cold if we get decent snow from it. Cold is purely a vehicle for snow for me. I don't give a at all about cold anomalies without snow. I'll take 31° and heavy snow over single digits or teens with no snow every single time.

Less ideal with February SUN ANGLES, but we'll have to take what we can get at this point.

I agree. I don't care for cold...I care for snow.