February 2026 Weather in the PNW

[Vince Vance]

9 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

There will be lowland snow by mid-February.   Its coming.  

I prayed to God for a snowstorm even it meant the Seahawks lose next weekend. Is that OK with everyone?                                  
 

[Number1AIFSfan]

1 minute ago, Vince Vance said:

I prayed to God for a snowstorm even it meant the Seahawks lose next weekend. Is that OK with everyone?                                  
 

No

[SilverFallsAndrew]

6 minutes ago, Vince Vance said:

I prayed to God for a snowstorm even it meant the Seahawks lose next weekend. Is that OK with everyone?                                  
 

Yes. 
 

The first trough middle of the month will be maritime based but many folx could see mixed snow and rain. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yes. 
 

The first trough middle of the month will be maritime based but many folx could see mixed snow and rain. 

I'll be very surprised. Sadly, I just think it's gonna be more of the same without much to look forward to unless we like excessive heat and eventually destructive fires that will wreck cities near the Cascades. Crews out west are gonna be stretched too thin.

[SnowWillarrive]

21 minutes ago, Vince Vance said:

I prayed to God for a snowstorm even it meant the Seahawks lose next weekend. Is that OK with everyone?                                  
 

God can do both

[Issaquah alps]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

1000’ -4 would do it in favorable conditions 

Well the period starting on the 10th should be a good test for that!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

God can do both

[DeepFriedEgg]

We’ll probably get one more stab at it. But overall looks like the worst chance in terms of high end potential with rising sun angles and a more onshore/prograding look to it.

[GobBluth]

Whatever ridge breakdown next Sunday looks to be replaced with splitty nonsense. 

[Andstorm]

Yeah this time of year for the lowlands I'd rather see more ensemble support for a higher end offshore event that inevitably gets modified as we get closer than what I'm seeing now which is a marginal onshore pattern. Ridge is just too far west. Troughing looks great and i'm sure there'll be plenty of cold to tap into with all the PV disruption, but just too much spill out over ocean, at least for us down near sea level in Portland area. Hopefully models improve. Either way, nice that the mountains will finally get some real and hopefully sustained snowfall. 

[Front Ranger]

Some all-time February record lows likely in FL tonight.

[Low Dew point]

9 hours ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The MJO is overperforming. Indian Ocean concentration is what we want to see. Models were wrong I guess.

I think we might be seeing something good in a couple weeks. Euro is already picking up on it.

This is probably going to happen because, As Phil said, I don't care anymore.  Thinking about spring listening to the frogs and enjoying the longer daylight.  Thinking about outdoor projects.  I would be cool with that all being interrupted by Armageddon, but also, I don't care anymore.

 

 

[Christensen87]

Ran into a local today randomly and had a nice chat with her. Born and raised in the Wenatchee Valley. She said she remembers only two winters that were this bad, and this is one of them. There were a bunch of robins in our yard today, and they usually don’t show up until March. She said it’s going to be an awful fire season.

[Vince Vance]

3 hours ago, SnowWillarrive said:

God can do both

Yes… In Florida.

[Vince Vance]

4 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Ran into a local today randomly and had a nice chat with her. Born and raised in the Wenatchee Valley. She said she remembers only two winters that were this bad, and this is one of them. There were a bunch of robins in our yard today, and they usually don’t show up until March. She said it’s going to be an awful fire season.

I was around in 1976-77 and this has a lot of similarities for sure.

[High Desert Mat!]

Anyone wanna throw up that PV  disruption graph? TIA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m excited about a more active pattern for developing. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Lotsa teens in Central Florida. Beautiful. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lotsa teens in Central Florida. Beautiful. 

Sounds like Barely Legal ANALogs gone wild: The Deep South.

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Sounds like Barely Legal ANALogs gone wild: The Deep South.

Reminds me of Mar-a-Lago

[Groundhog]

47 years ago today, early in the morning, wee Groundhog burst forth from his mother’s loins—with the help of the medical salad spoons, apparently. Weather at that time was between -4F to -13F around Edmonton, AB with light snow. Roughly 1” of snow fell that day. Don’t remember if I saw my shadow or not. 

[Number1AIFSfan]

Hmm

[MossMan]

1 year ago today. 
 

And those Coyotes knew it was coming 7 years ago…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Good 06z runs. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really starting to feel good about a switch to a much more ACTIVE pattern.  

[Andstorm]

40 minutes ago, Number1AIFSfan said:

Hmm

This is more of what I'd like to see to build my confidence. Unfortunately, this represents the extreme end of the ensemble scale. A vast majority of members have the ridge weaker and further west. I love the double-barreled cold lobes ready to drop down, though! Bring it on. 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

5 hours ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Reminds me of Mar-a-Lago

Mar-a-Nieva...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad AI GFS run.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

1 hour ago, Number1AIFSfan said:

Hmm

The AIFS showing this certainly means something. But it can make mistakes in predicting cold as we've seen earlier this season.

However I'm expecting a good model riding period ahead. Another good sign is the Weather Channel starting to show flakes in the 15 day range. They're pretty good at picking up these things. 

So it's fairly confirmed we are going to see -PNA soon. The main detail to work out is getting a -EPO and shutting down the Pacific after this initial prograde.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The spatial anomalies (blue - convection, red - suppression) show the upcoming pattern pretty nicely.

We want to see more red over the Pacific, and more blue over the Indian Ocean. The reasons should be pretty obvious I hope.

This is the first time this winter I'm seeing a signal like this. All of the other ones sort of kept the Pacific active and didn't really amplify over the Indian Ocean.

Now this doesn't always set us up for goods, but it usually does. Last February ended up delivering a few weeks after these MJO phases happened, for example. If you look back at most of our best events, the MJO phases do line up between 7-8-1-2 a couple weeks in advance. 7-8 only works in certain situations but this winter both of them were plagued with WWBs that flooded the Pacific with westerly momentum.

Edit: realized this screenshot uses constructed analogs, but the models basically show the same thing.

Edited February 2 by SeattleMarineLayerFan

[OysterPrintout]

rough news this morning finding out this rodent is absolutely crushing me in weather forecasting

[Andstorm]

10 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The spatial anomalies (blue - convection, red - suppression) show the upcoming pattern pretty nicely.

We want to see more red over the Pacific, and more blue over the Indian Ocean. The reasons should be pretty obvious I hope.

This is the first time this winter I'm seeing a signal like this. All of the other ones sort of kept the Pacific active and didn't really amplify over the Indian Ocean.

Now this doesn't always set us up for goods, but it usually does. Last February ended up delivering a few weeks after these MJO phases happened, for example. If you look back at most of our best events, the MJO phases do line up between 7-8-1-2 a couple weeks in advance. 7-8 only works in certain situations but this winter both of them were plagued with WWBs that flooded the Pacific with westerly momentum.

Edit: realized this screenshot uses constructed analogs, but the models basically show the same thing.

Great post. So what is the timing you think? And are you expecting models to start trending colder and more interesting. They've been fairly consistent in mid and long range over last several days in promoting a cooler onshore pattern.

[PuyallupChris]

8 hours ago, High Desert Mat! said:

Anyone wanna throw up that PV  disruption graph? TIA

Yes, in fact this winter does make me wanna throw up. 

What? Oh, I only read the first half. 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

4 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Great post. So what is the timing you think? And are you expecting models to start trending colder and more interesting. They've been fairly consistent in mid and long range over last several days in promoting a cooler onshore pattern.

There is an event around the 14th, which the AI models are advertising. That one is lower confidence as it uses a prograde to achieve that. I think its fairly possible as we have a weak +EAMT that will push our ridge/warmth to the east of the Rockies, and the downward motion starting up over the Pacific may help blow up the heights around AK.

But if that one fails, we could still see things set up later in the month towards the 21st. The PV may be largely in favor of us as well.

Still huge bust potential...we're still weeks out.

[Front Ranger]

8 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Lotsa teens in Central Florida. Beautiful. 

 

All-Time February Cold Records 

 

Daytona Beach, FL

: Reached 23°F on Feb. 1, breaking its previous February record of 24°F set in 1958.

 

Fort Pierce, FL

: Hit 23°F on Feb. 2, surpassing its all-time February low of 25°F from 1996.

 

Melbourne, FL

: Dropped to 24°F on Feb. 2, breaking its February record of 25°F set just the day before (and its previous long-standing record of 27°F from 1967).

 

Sanford, FL

: Recorded 23°F on Feb. 1, breaking its previous monthly record of 25°F from 1958.

 

Vero Beach, FL

: Plunged to 26°F on Feb. 1, breaking its all-time February record of 28°F set in 1989.

 

Leesburg, FL

: Tied its all-time February record low of 23°F. 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

There is an event around the 14th, which the AI models are advertising. That one is lower confidence as it uses a prograde to achieve that. I think its fairly possible as we have a weak +EAMT that will push our ridge/warmth to the east of the Rockies, and the downward motion starting up over the Pacific may help blow up the heights around AK.

But if that one fails, we could still see things set up later in the month towards the 21st. The PV may be largely in favor of us as well.

Still huge bust potential...we're still weeks out.

The Euro AI is really good within 8 days. Beyond day 10, I don't think it's much more accurate than the other models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

All-Time February Cold Records 

 

Daytona Beach, FL

: Reached 23°F on Feb. 1, breaking its previous February record of 24°F set in 1958.

 

Fort Pierce, FL

: Hit 23°F on Feb. 2, surpassing its all-time February low of 25°F from 1996.

 

Melbourne, FL

: Dropped to 24°F on Feb. 2, breaking its February record of 25°F set just the day before (and its previous long-standing record of 27°F from 1967).

 

Sanford, FL

: Recorded 23°F on Feb. 1, breaking its previous monthly record of 25°F from 1958.

 

Vero Beach, FL

: Plunged to 26°F on Feb. 1, breaking its all-time February record of 28°F set in 1989.

 

Leesburg, FL

: Tied its all-time February record low of 23°F. 

 

 

Incredible! 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

5 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

The Euro AI is really good within 8 days. Beyond day 10, I don't think it's much more accurate than the other models.

Yes, its more about how it gets there, and whether that progression is plausible theoretically. I'd say 20%.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Really nice GFS run. Lots of cold onshore FLOW. 

[Andstorm]

12 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

There is an event around the 14th, which the AI models are advertising. That one is lower confidence as it uses a prograde to achieve that. I think its fairly possible as we have a weak +EAMT that will push our ridge/warmth to the east of the Rockies, and the downward motion starting up over the Pacific may help blow up the heights around AK.

But if that one fails, we could still see things set up later in the month towards the 21st. The PV may be largely in favor of us as well.

Still huge bust potential...we're still weeks out.

Thanks. We had a big snowfall down here in the Portland area on Feb 22, 2023, followed by two days with highs in the low-30s and a low of 18 on Feb 25. Historical records definitely don't favor big cold/snow events in the second half of February, but it definitely can happen with the right pattern. I think the PV situation adds an interesting wrinkle, given the potential for access to cold air. It's also worth stating that a late Feb lowland cold/snow event in the Pac NW, while historically rare, probably shouldn't be considered as extreme as the kind of cold and snow we've seen in the South of late. Perhaps the winter of 2025-2026 will go down as the winter of weird extremes.