February 2026 Weather in the PNW

[GobBluth]

Long term gfs is a miracle for the ski areas

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

3 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Thanks. We had a big snowfall down here in the Portland area on Feb 22, 2023, followed by two days with highs in the low-30s and a low of 18 on Feb 25. Historical records definitely don't favor big cold/snow events in the second half of February, but it definitely can happen with the right pattern. I think the PV situation adds an interesting wrinkle, given the potential for access to cold air. It's also worth stating that a late Feb lowland cold/snow event in the Pac NW, while historically rare, probably shouldn't be considered as extreme as the kind of cold and snow we've seen in the South of late. Perhaps the winter of 2025-2026 will go down as the winter of weird extremes.   

At this point, I'm not locking in any arctic blast at all. Not even close. But NW flow and some chillier temps are not out of the question. Mountains will definitely get some reprieve, and there is a solid chance the lowlands see some flakes and spotty slushy accumulation at least.

[Tanis Leach]

36 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

Thanks. We had a big snowfall down here in the Portland area on Feb 22, 2023, followed by two days with highs in the low-30s and a low of 18 on Feb 25. Historical records definitely don't favor big cold/snow events in the second half of February, but it definitely can happen with the right pattern. I think the PV situation adds an interesting wrinkle, given the potential for access to cold air. It's also worth stating that a late Feb lowland cold/snow event in the Pac NW, while historically rare, probably shouldn't be considered as extreme as the kind of cold and snow we've seen in the South of late. Perhaps the winter of 2025-2026 will go down as the winter of weird extremes.   

Eugene has had big events in the past 20 years in late February 2019 as well as March 2012. Going back a little further, February 1996 also had something for them at the end (5").

Edited February 2 by Tanis Leach

[Andstorm]

11 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Eugene has had big events in the past 20 years in late February 2019 as well as March 2012. Going back a little further, February 1996 also had something for them at the end (5").

Yeah I remember the 2019 event well. The whole second half of the month was crazy. Portland missed out on the low placements, but the pattern was a winner for the entire region. I remember at one point the weather channel app showed accumulating snow in Portland for five consecutive days. 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The 14th kinda looks like it might bust just like December....so....back to long range hope. Still a much improved pattern for the mountains though.

[Phishy Wx]

Def like what the MJO is advertising, but amplification ain't great.  maybe the last couple weeks of Feb will be decent.  someone ping me when we're 5 days out of something real.  not going to get invested until it matters

[bainbridgekid]

Some much needed snow at Stevens this morning before we warm up the rest of week. Also noticed the rain just flipped to snow at Snoqualmie as well

.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It does seem very maritime based, which will be good for the mountains. 

[bainbridgekid]

I went to Whistler on Saturday and in the afternoon it was raining at the upper lodges at just over 6,000 feet. Been there like 40 times and never seen that before.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

15 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Def like what the MJO is advertising, but amplification ain't great.  maybe the last couple weeks of Feb will be decent.  someone ping me when we're 5 days out of something real.  not going to get invested until it matters

Yep. It's a coin toss at this point. 

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

At this point, I'm not locking in any arctic blast at all. Not even close. But NW flow and some chillier temps are not out of the question. Mountains will definitely get some reprieve, and there is a solid chance the lowlands see some flakes and spotty slushy accumulation at least.

I am. And it can still happen. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro looks good for the trough around Valentine s Day. It’s interesting, a lot of the really good late season periods have kicked off with a trough around that time. 2012, 2018, and 2023. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m calling it right now. Low snow levels mid month. 

[MossMan]

30 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I went to Whistler on Saturday and in the afternoon it was raining at the upper lodges at just over 6,000 feet. Been there like 40 times and never seen that before.

My family and our friends went to Baker yesterday, unfortunately I had too much going on to go with them…But they had a blast. Their original plan was Snoqualmie Pass area but I told them to abort that and go north! 

[MossMan]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Euro looks good for the trough around Valentine s Day. It’s interesting, a lot of the really good late season periods have kicked off with a trough around that time. 2012, 2018, and 2023. 

Exactly. It’s coming! 

[SnowWillarrive]

53 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Some much needed snow at Stevens this morning before we warm up the rest of week. Also noticed the rain just flipped to snow at Snoqualmie as well

.

 

Wow what a pleasant change. Was raining like crazy earlier this morning. 

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m calling it right now. Low snow levels mid month. 

BoLd.  2500ft could be considered a low snow level. 

[ShawniganLake]

[BLI snowman]

18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m calling it right now. Low snow levels mid month. 

Cold maritime troughs typically lock in on the models very early and this one appears to be doing that. How much if any continental tap we get is more the question at this point. 

[MossMan]

Looking good for another winter saving late February miracle! 

[Deweydog]

Easy call.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Andstorm said:

Thanks. We had a big snowfall down here in the Portland area on Feb 22, 2023, followed by two days with highs in the low-30s and a low of 18 on Feb 25. Historical records definitely don't favor big cold/snow events in the second half of February, but it definitely can happen with the right pattern. I think the PV situation adds an interesting wrinkle, given the potential for access to cold air. It's also worth stating that a late Feb lowland cold/snow event in the Pac NW, while historically rare, probably shouldn't be considered as extreme as the kind of cold and snow we've seen in the South of late. Perhaps the winter of 2025-2026 will go down as the winter of weird extremes.   

There was an SSW in mid February 2023, fwiw. Seems likely that played a role in the very cold air mass that hit the PNW shortly after.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Cold maritime troughs typically lock in on the models very early and this one appears to be doing that. How much if any continental tap we get is more the question at this point. 

Yea pretty limited support for a continental tap at this point.   

[Edmonds Husky]

False spring is over, six more weeks of winter. Just as Punxsutawney Phil predicted.

[Omegaraptor]

7 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There was an SSW in mid February 2023, fwiw. Seems likely that played a role in the very cold air mass that hit the PNW shortly after.

Basically plunged us into a two month long -PNA icebox. March 2023 was interesting in that the troughs dropping in were so deep that the jet was actually suppressed into northern California for much of the month. That month felt almost continental/eastsidey here, sunnier than you'd expect a cold PNW March to be.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Basically plunged us into a two month long -PNA icebox. March 2023 was interesting in that the troughs dropping in were so deep that the jet was actually suppressed into northern California for much of the month. That month felt almost continental/eastsidey here, sunnier than you'd expect a cold PNW March to be.

I don’t remember anything about March 2023.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Looking good for another winter saving late February miracle! 

Never gonna get the dud monkey off your backs!

[MossMan]

32 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t remember anything about March 2023.

Brrr. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[Front Ranger]

9 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Basically plunged us into a two month long -PNA icebox. March 2023 was interesting in that the troughs dropping in were so deep that the jet was actually suppressed into northern California for much of the month. That month felt almost continental/eastsidey here, sunnier than you'd expect a cold PNW March to be.

It was one of the coldest Marches on record for the West.

[Andstorm]

50 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There was an SSW in mid February 2023, fwiw. Seems likely that played a role in the very cold air mass that hit the PNW shortly after.

I know several weather enthusiasts, myself included, were shocked to see that a largely cloudless sky on February 23 could still produce a high temperature below freezing. It was actually a pretty remarkable event. The day before the big snowfall in Portland the high temperature was a seasonally appropriate 50 degrees. The models also didn't really telegraph this one well until just a few days beforehand. 

[bainbridgekid]

15 minutes ago, Edmonds Husky said:

False spring is over, six more weeks of winter. Just as Punxsutawney Phil predicted.

Gotta get through a few more days of Spring this week first though. Couple foothills spots may get close to 70 on Wednesday.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Gotta get through a few more days of Spring this week first though. Couple foothills spots may get close to 70 on Wednesday.

 

We know Tim will.

[Phishy Wx]

Ocean Isle Beach, NC (between Wilimington, NC and Myrtle Beach SC).  friends of my wife's place

 

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

24 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The good ole CFS to the rescue.

[SeattleMarineLayerFan]

The Weather Channel is moving towards subfreezing lows and rain/snow mix around Valentine's Day.

[bainbridgekid]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

We know Tim will.

WRF sure thinks so. It even has quite a few spots in the I-5 corridor hitting 68+ degrees Wednesday afternoon.

[BLI snowman]

Just realized that with this January in the books, I am now up to 6 out of the last 9 Januarys with zero snowfall here. And of the three that did produce at least some flakeage (2020, 2021, 2024) only January 2024 went over 1". 

Pretty wild and definitely unprecedented in the records.