15 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WRF sure thinks so. It even has quite a few spots in the I-5 corridor hitting 68+ degrees Wednesday afternoon.

Summer!

March 2023 was the 2nd coldest on record for Oregon, behind 1951. I had 33” of snow, so it’s my 2nd snowiest March behind 2012, and snow on the ground the entire month except from around the 18-22nd. Peak snow depth was about 20” early in the month, and there was a pretty big multi day snow event late in the month, including thunder snow on two consecutive days. Part of 3 consecutive days with thunder. The onshore flow patterns of late February into April often follow the same general trend. Moisture rotates through in the 4-8am time frame then there is a lull through early afternoon, and then it picks up in the evening usually around 4-8p. If the pattern isn’t transitory this can lock in for several days. It’s pretty common for snowfall rates in that timeframe to be 1-2” an hour, the afternoon round usually starts as hail or grapuel. 

24 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WRF sure thinks so. It even has quite a few spots in the I-5 corridor hitting 68+ degrees Wednesday afternoon.

Wow, that would be a benchmark for this early if it happens. 1963 is the current benchmark for SEA, hitting 66 and 68 on 2/7 and 2/8.

55 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I know several weather enthusiasts, myself included, were shocked to see that a largely cloudless sky on February 23 could still produce a high temperature below freezing. It was actually a pretty remarkable event. The day before the big snowfall in Portland the high temperature was a seasonally appropriate 50 degrees. The models also didn't really telegraph this one well until just a few days beforehand. 

Models were picking up the cold potential by the end of week 1 in February that year.  As usual, the details took awhile to iron out.  
 

 

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Just realized that with this January in the books, I am now up to 6 out of the last 9 Januarys with zero snowfall here. And of the three that did produce at least some flakeage (2020, 2021, 2024) only January 2024 went over 1". 

Pretty wild and definitely unprecedented in the records. 

And yet it's pretty much been balanced out by Feb, at least in the 2018-25 period. Just a bummer in a way since we know several of those Feb patterns could have been so much better in Jan.

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet it's pretty much been balanced out by Feb, at least in the 2018-25 period. Just a bummer in a way since we know several of those Feb patterns could have been so much better in Jan.

If the February 2019 pattern had set up on January 3rd it would have been incredible, we would have also had a major regional arctic outbreak at the end of January through the first week of February if that whole setup had been a month earlier.

On 2/1/2026 at 4:07 PM, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

The MJO is overperforming. Indian Ocean concentration is what we want to see. Models were wrong I guess.

I think we might be seeing something good in a couple weeks. Euro is already picking up on it.

The stratwarm/wave-2 pinch is beginning to affect the tropical convection through the BDC/MC. Pumping that Aleutian low even for a couple of weeks can work wonders weeks later, even if it’s a torch while it’s happening.

Finally edged above freezing (barely) for the first time in 10 days, all rivers and lakes are frozen solid. Need some liquid precip soon, the roads are stained white from salt, can’t even see the lane markers.

The dry wind has been relentless even more so than last year. Going from swamp conditions 6+ months out of the year to this arctic tundra weather is surprisingly difficult to acclimate to. My lips are split and bleeding. ?‍?

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Finally edged above freezing (barely) for the first time in 10 days, all rivers and lakes are frozen solid. Need some liquid precip soon, the roads are stained white from salt, can’t even see the lane markers.

The dry wind has been relentless even more so than last year. Going from swamp conditions 6+ months out of the year to this arctic tundra weather is surprisingly difficult to acclimate to. My lips are split and bleeding. ?‍?

I feel so bad for you. 

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

The stratwarm/wave-2 pinch is beginning to affect the tropical convection through the BDC/MC. Pumping that Aleutian low even for a couple of weeks can work wonders weeks later, even if it’s a torch while it’s happening.

Do you think the PNW has a shot, or will we see the same situation we did in late December / early January?

36 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Models were picking up the cold potential by the end of week 1 in February that year.  As usual, the details took awhile to iron out.  
 

 

Wish our current spaghetti looked like this 

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Just realized that with this January in the books, I am now up to 6 out of the last 9 Januarys with zero snowfall here. And of the three that did produce at least some flakeage (2020, 2021, 2024) only January 2024 went over 1". 

Pretty wild and definitely unprecedented in the records. 

I wonder how long it’s gonna be until we see another Dec-Jan combo like 2016-17 again.

Meanwhile, 37 years ago…

19 minutes ago, SeattleMarineLayerFan said:

Do you think the PNW has a shot, or will we see the same situation we did in late December / early January?

Wavelengths and seasonality in spatiotemporal responses to external forcing are different in Feb than Dec. So it won’t be a repeat of Dec.

But it doesn’t look like much of an arctic setup either, the forcing for wave amplification has largely passed by the time this cycle of E-Hem forcing gets started.

21 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Wish our current spaghetti looked like this 

 

While we don't have the real cold temp figures like 2023, that one-week drop is at least impressive. If only we were starting 5-10 degrees colder with our peak. This is for Portland. It's disconcerting that the coldest ensemble members barely make it beyond -5 degrees, but that's also consistent with the transition to a cooler onshore pattern. Hopefully, things keep progressing favorably, and we see some ensemble members start to really bottom out in the long range.    

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet it's pretty much been balanced out by Feb, at least in the 2018-25 period. Just a bummer in a way since we know several of those Feb patterns could have been so much better in Jan.

It's wild that January's fall from grace really started in the 1980s and it has only gotten worse since. This last 9 year stretch is the worst one yet overall.

February has definitely picked up the slack more but now we're also staring down our 3rd consecutive winter where any measurable snow we get is limited to one month/window only (January 2024 for 23-24, February 2025 for 24-25, ? for 25-26) which is pretty unusual for my location.

28 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I wonder how long it’s gonna be until we see another Dec-Jan combo like 2016-17 again.

Probably have to cycle through at least one more huge Niño first, which we won't be due for until 2030 or later in all likelihood. Both 2016-17 and 1992-93 felt like a bit of a post-Niño regression to the mean for the region.

33 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

 

While we don't have the real cold temp figures like 2023, that one-week drop is at least impressive. If only we were starting 5-10 degrees colder with our peak. This is for Portland. It's disconcerting that the coldest ensemble members barely make it beyond -5 degrees, but that's also consistent with the transition to a cooler onshore pattern. Hopefully, things keep progressing favorably, and we see some ensemble members start to really bottom out in the long range.    

This is at least a signal for mountain snow. I’m cool with that.

3 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I don’t remember anything about March 2023.

Because that winter was a dud. At least IMBY probly had the least amount of action in the entire region. Which has become increasingly commonplace. Almost nothing but a nasty ice storm since Dec 2021.

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Finally edged above freezing (barely) for the first time in 10 days, all rivers and lakes are frozen solid. Need some liquid precip soon, the roads are stained white from salt, can’t even see the lane markers.

The dry wind has been relentless even more so than last year. Going from swamp conditions 6+ months out of the year to this arctic tundra weather is surprisingly difficult to acclimate to. My lips are split and bleeding. ?‍?

I will never know that feeling in my entire life.

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Wavelengths and seasonality in spatiotemporal responses to external forcing are different in Feb than Dec. So it won’t be a repeat of Dec.

But it doesn’t look like much of an arctic setup either, the forcing for wave amplification has largely passed by the time this cycle of E-Hem forcing gets started.

You would think by shear probabilities alone that we would finally have something good down here in Dec-Jan but it will never happen again. Too warm and an awful location.

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, 37 years ago…

Phil was in the 60s!

6 more weeks of no winter

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil was in the 60s!

Happy lips.

-2f 76 years ago in Oregon City.  All time low.  Closest I've been in this area has been 6 once and 8 several times but nothing like '49-50 for prolonged cold and snow.  

1 minute ago, Prairiedog said:

-2f 76 years ago in Oregon City.  All time low.  Closest I've been in this area has been 6 once and 8 several times but nothing like '49-50 for prolonged cold and snow.  

In three days we'll also be coming up on 37 years since PDX last dropped to the single digits.

1 minute ago, Omegaraptor said:

In three days we'll also be coming up on 37 years since PDX last dropped to the single digits.

I've had single digits a couple times(8) in 2013 but that was between Oregon City and Estacada.  On clear cold nights we run about 5-8 degrees colder than PDX.  I had 38f this am.  I think PDX was around 43f.  I'm about 25mi SE of PDX

Every ensemble shows a very solid -PNA, and even -WPO. There is just a disagreement on the degree of -EPO vs. +EPO. The GEFS has the worst setup...which is a good sign lol.

The EPS AI, GEPS, and EPS all look pretty decent and certainly a pattern conducive to chillier weather... even if not arctic air.

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Finally edged above freezing (barely) for the first time in 10 days, all rivers and lakes are frozen solid. Need some liquid precip soon, the roads are stained white from salt, can’t even see the lane markers.

The dry wind has been relentless even more so than last year. Going from swamp conditions 6+ months out of the year to this arctic tundra weather is surprisingly difficult to acclimate to. My lips are split and bleeding. ?‍?

That is Minneapolis literally every year.   Side note... a dry, cold wind will chap lips regardless of where you live.   We go from rainy weather with high relative humidity to a bone dry east wind and then back to rainy weather every winter in my area... sometimes we go back and forth many times!  

My lips are fine. I don't think it's that dry, going to snow tomorrow. 

12z EPS finally had a west coast trough producing widespread below average temps in the very long range

Who is excited? And who will find a reason to complain no matter what? 

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Who is excited? And who will find a reason to complain no matter what? 

 

.48” on the day, .90” for the month. 

19 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Who is excited? And who will find a reason to complain no matter what? 

I will not get excited until 120 hours out then I will complain about the lackluster results 

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I will not get excited until 120 hours out then I will complain about the lackluster results 

48.

I won't get excited until it's the 11th anniversary and Mossman is sharing a Facebook memory of it with his snowy tractor.

Starting Valentine’s Day, it’s on like Donkey Kong! 

Hmm not sure what there is to be excited about below 1500’?