Feb 5 & 6 Clipper wave for Upper MW/GL's/and points S.E.

[jaster220]

Global models continue to advertise another clipper diving down from Canada crossing the northeast section of the Sub. 

SLP reflections are centered further N but some indication a secondary Low is possible further south across the OHV.

This looks like the first wide-spread event of the new month - let's get this party started!

06z Euro surface at h120:

 

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Global models continue to advertise another clipper diving down from Canada crossing the northeast section of the Sub. 

SLP reflections are centered further N but some indication a secondary Low is possible further south across the OHV.

This looks like the first wide-spread event of the new month - let's get this party started!

06z Euro surface at h120:

 

Looks impressive.  

[MMike]

You all up around the lakes are having a winter to remember.  Cold one too. Now I know you guys love it now, but not in April, right? You want some sun and warmer temps. 

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, MMike said:

You all up around the lakes are having a winter to remember.  Cold one too. Now I know you guys love it now, but not in April, right? You want some sun and warmer temps. 

Yes.   I have a rule after February 20th I no longer shovel or snow blow.   The worst springs have been happening lately in Michigan.   I’ll take 50 in late March but we’ve been stuck it seems in the 30’s and 40’s in March and April.   And then around May 20th.  Boom summer.    Spring has been non-existent.  

[westMJim]

The Grand Rapids NWS office is now downplaying the snow event for the 5/6.  They are now thinking less than 2" area wide. 

[Stacsh]

7 minutes ago, westMJim said:

The Grand Rapids NWS office is now downplaying the snow event for the 5/6.  They are now thinking less than 2" area wide. 

Indeed.    Here’s hoping for a pattern change and something besides lake effect.  
 

THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW STILL   VARIES, BUT THERE IS A TREND TOWARD LOWER PROBABILITIES OF 2   INCHES OR MORE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) AND 4 INCHES OR MORE (20   PERCENT) SINCE YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. OVERALL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER   LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THAT COULD BRING SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR   THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Stacsh said:

Indeed.    Here’s hoping for a pattern change and something besides lake effect.  
 

THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW STILL   VARIES, BUT THERE IS A TREND TOWARD LOWER PROBABILITIES OF 2   INCHES OR MORE (20 TO 40 PERCENT) AND 4 INCHES OR MORE (20   PERCENT) SINCE YESTERDAY'S FORECAST. OVERALL LOOKING LIKE ANOTHER   LIGHT WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT THAT COULD BRING SOME SLICK SPOTS FOR   THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE.  

Models seemed split on how the energy rolls thru - in or out of sync. I think we've seen the less sync'd option at this range end-up trending back for game-time so follow the bouncing model ball (and subsequent AFD's). Something to watch any ways. Tbh, I'm not too invested either way. As long as we're firmly in winter's grip, I'll take a low-end plowable event to freshen the seasonal look at least. Having totally whiffed on the big storm last week we could use one up this way.

[jaster220]

Seeing as today's wave is more impressive than expected, I'm still not sold on this thread's event being DOA. Yeah, its the LR NAM12 but it looks a lot more robust than the globals:

Will be keeping an eye on this. Also the Euro is bullish on another clipper on Sunday. Maybe yet another back-to-back scenario that seems set in stone with this year's LRC.

[jaster220]

12z Euro still flashing widespread snow shield for this Thurs night period:

[Niko]

NOAA:

850 mb temperatures persist in the minus double-digit (Celsius)
range on Wednesday which ensures cold conditions continue. Morning
wind chills could minimize as low as -5F. The upstream ridge axis
starts to shear out as it crosses over the Great Lakes, and the
surface circulation becomes more diffuse, lending a weakening WNW
gradient wind trend. Highest confidence of the week in a snowless
forecast Wednesday based on the lack of ascent and lowest PWATs. The
arctic airmass dislodges Thursday with lower column flow backing WSW
ahead of the next system. Lead isentropic ascent develops by
Thursday evening as light snowfall spreads southeastward. Meanwhile,
a seasonably strong jet axis will move overhead and become quasi-
stationary through the weekend with various jet enhancements and
geopotential height perturbations. Several rounds of snow are
possible Thursday night through Friday with accumulations. The most
intense low-level jet offers the gustiest winds on Friday, possibly
in excess of 35 mph.

[Clinton]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

12z Euro still flashing widespread snow shield for this Thurs night period:

 

12 hours ago, Niko said:

NOAA:

850 mb temperatures persist in the minus double-digit (Celsius)
range on Wednesday which ensures cold conditions continue. Morning
wind chills could minimize as low as -5F. The upstream ridge axis
starts to shear out as it crosses over the Great Lakes, and the
surface circulation becomes more diffuse, lending a weakening WNW
gradient wind trend. Highest confidence of the week in a snowless
forecast Wednesday based on the lack of ascent and lowest PWATs. The
arctic airmass dislodges Thursday with lower column flow backing WSW
ahead of the next system. Lead isentropic ascent develops by
Thursday evening as light snowfall spreads southeastward. Meanwhile,
a seasonably strong jet axis will move overhead and become quasi-
stationary through the weekend with various jet enhancements and
geopotential height perturbations. Several rounds of snow are
possible Thursday night through Friday with accumulations. The most
intense low-level jet offers the gustiest winds on Friday, possibly
in excess of 35 mph.is ss 

This mornings Euro showing widespread 2-4 across the state.  It's a little more generous with the snow than the other models currently. 

[tStacsh]

Looks like a nice send off before the pattern change.   A little kiss goodbye.  Followed by some polar air once again, albeit brief.  

[Niko]

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

This mornings Euro showing widespread 2-4 across the state.  It's a little more generous with the snow than the other models currently. 

Yes sir, this looks like a good 2-4" type snowfall. Dare I say an overachiever to maybe 5" in spots??!!

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Looks like a nice send off before the pattern change.   A little kiss goodbye.  Followed by some polar air once again, albeit brief.  

Looking good to hit another peak depth right before the next rapid melt-off. Pattern sure is predictable. WRT your other post, I expect to get rained on, then watch better storms from the sidelines. Just been that pattern too.

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

 

This mornings Euro showing widespread 2-4 across the state.  It's a little more generous with the snow than the other models currently. 

Thx @Clinton How's the NAM looking?

[Clinton]

22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx @Clinton How's the NAM looking?

Ehh

12z Euro was mostly the same as 6z.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Ehh

12z Euro was mostly the same as 6z.

That's still a couple inches here but less generous for those SW

[tStacsh]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Looking good to hit another peak depth right before the next rapid melt-off. Pattern sure is predictable. WRT your other post, I expect to get rained on, then watch better storms from the sidelines. Just been that pattern too.

I'm not so sure we get shut out in the next pattern.  Certainly a chance for a decent storm track.   It's going to be warmer for sure, but still chances for snow.  

[tStacsh]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

That's still a couple inches here but less generous for those SW

It's still a ways off for the NAM.   Initial wave is warm and meh.   Secondary trailing cold front seems decent.    But the lp is quite far away from SWMI.  

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, tStacsh said:

It's still a ways off for the NAM.   Initial wave is warm and meh.   Secondary trailing cold front seems decent.    But the lp is quite far away from SWMI.  

Agreed. I like the NAM inside 36 hrs but the 18z suddenly much more robust - good trend. Oh, and my fridge computer 5-day had snow flakes for Thu and Fri - has to count for something, lol.

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Agreed. I like the NAM inside 36 hrs but the 18z suddenly much more robust - good trend. Oh, and my fridge computer 5-day had snow flakes for Thu and Fri - has to count for something, lol.

18z Euro also stronger

 

[Niko]

8 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Agreed. I like the NAM inside 36 hrs but the 18z suddenly much more robust - good trend. Oh, and my fridge computer 5-day had snow flakes for Thu and Fri - has to count for something, lol.

Dark blue color likes our backyard's.

[jaster220]

6 minutes ago, Niko said:

Dark blue color likes our backyard's.

Was JUST about to post the same  Seems to intensify over SEMI similar to that surprise phase storm that the models and Mets missed due to a lack of data inputs from far north in Canada. May be similar surprises with this one. 

[Tom]

Some + trends for this clipper to "clip" NE IL with some snow on both THU and FRI???  Stat padding snows continue...and more daily snow observations on the charts.

 

 

 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Some + trends for this clipper to "clip" NE IL with some snow on both THU and FRI???  Stat padding snows continue...and more daily snow observations on the charts.

 

 

 

Didn't want to mention it prematurely, but yeah I saw the potential when I made this thread. P'sure it will share the wealth as originally depicted. GRR not to enthusiastic mostly because they've been getting much bigger LES hits than this one. Its a much bigger deal for their NW counties which as @tStacsh said isn't their primary concern. 

[tStacsh]

[jaster220]

Liking that 3-4" in N Clare cnty! And I believe ratios will be sub-fluff level for a change as well. 

[jaster220]

12z NAM has it pounding Friday morning across The Mitt (moves SE after this time frame). Euro and NAM clip ORD as well. I'm riding them on this one. GFS has improved but still not back to its former version(s).

[Tony]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Some + trends for this clipper to "clip" NE IL with some snow on both THU and FRI???  Stat padding snows continue...and more daily snow observations on the charts.

 

 

 

Really not much else happening so possibly get some snow showers out of this clipper. After this it looks quite boring.

[jaster220]

DTX:

Should see some light snow with the lead wave Thursday afternoon,
and utilized the SREF pops for the most part during this period.
Although, thermal profiles are less than ideal (have to get to 700 MB
level to reach temps around the -10 C), thus southwest flow off Lake
Michigan should not contribute much to the moisture profile. As
such, would not expect much more than a dusting to one inch through
Thursday evening.

The wave/jet on Friday looks to be the stronger one of the two, and
will gives us the majority of our snowfall. Euro/Canadian ensembles
both indicating 80-100 percent probability of 24 hr QPF to be aoa a
tenth of an inch. A 1-3" snowfall seems reasonable based on 850-700
MB specific humidity of 2-2.75 g/kg tracking through. Better
moisture progged to track through the Western Ohio Valley Friday
morning, but good lift rolls through southeast Michigan. Short
duration is expected to limit totals, as strong northwest winds,
gusting 30-40 mph late in the day (per local probabilistic guidance)
ushers in much colder and drier air. Bulk of the arctic air (-25 C
at 850 MB) looks to be tracking through the Eastern Great Lakes and
moves east fairly quickly, per 00z Euro.

[jaster220]

APX:

A series of light accumulating snowfall
events are set to occur in rapid succession Thursday and Friday,
driven by a strong jet streak stretching from Alberta south and east
to the lower Great Lakes. Aforementioned warm advection wing set to
pass through the region as jet dynamics support isentropic lift. As
such, this initial wave will lead to a period of light snowfall that
moves in from NW to SE after daybreak Thursday. Some of this snow
may linger around into Thursday night as warm advection continues to
supply some moisture into the region through the evening and into
early overnight... but may need to watch for some freezing drizzle
owing to temps aloft warming just above the DGZ. In general, this
particular event looks like a 1 to 3 inch snowfall through Thursday
evening.

Upstream, a potent wave ejects east, with the favorable jet dynamics
remaining firmly in control. This will support a deepening and
closing off shortwave / surface cyclone that should surge eastward
into James Bay. Closer to home, warm advection will be ongoing into
early Friday morning, with temps likely spiking near freezing across
much of northern lower. Aforementioned deepening cyclone will force
a strong arctic cold front through the region. With ample lift in
place and an embedded shortwave trough surging through the region,
this will support a burst of snow ahead of the front that will
overlap with the Friday morning commute. This will bring another 1
to 3 inches of snow through Friday afternoon. The front itself looks
to barge through later in the morning and into the afternoon. This
will be accompanied by a dramatic increase in winds as an arctic
airmass surges into the region. With wind gusts potentially
approaching 40mph, this could lead to some pretty gnarly commuting
conditions Friday afternoon into the evening as blowing snow and
snowfall leads to reduced visibility and blowing / drifting snow.
This will eventually transition to some lake effect snowfall which
will lead to continued impacts across the snowbelts into Friday
night and Saturday. Temperatures tumbling to near / below zero will
lead to dangerous wind chills Friday night into Saturday as well,
with highs well below normal Saturday.

[jaster220]

While pm AFD's keep mentioning a lull between waves, the 18z NAM came out and said "What lull??" 

Keeps flakes flying - could be quite the whiteness over a 24 hr period starting 9-10 am Thursday:

[Tom]

Looks like the models didn't really handle the WAA snow as far west as it appears to be snowing into W IL this morning. There is a weenie band of 30-35 dbz returns all the way out towards Starved Rock, IL and will swing into Peoria, IL.  @Devy

[jaster220]

Coming straight down at a nice clip here in Grayling. This has chance to over-perform like the last clipper did imo. Won't know for about a day ofc.

GRR's map has 2" total for both waves and I think we'll be closer to 3" in Harrison. 

[tStacsh]

46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Coming straight down at a nice clip here in Grayling. This has chance to over-perform like the last clipper did imo. Won't know for about a day ofc.

GRR's map has 2" total for both waves and I think we'll be closer to 3" in Harrison. 

Good luck, supposed to start snowing here lightly soon.  Lot's of Dry air down here so far though.   

[Tom]

I'd be pretty stoked if ORD gets 2" from this setup by Friday night...some of the models are suggesting that SE WI/N IL get clipper pretty good.

 

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Good luck, supposed to start snowing here lightly soon.  Lot's of Dry air down here so far though.   

Thanks - u2

Looks like some heavier rates swung thru at home about 1 hr ago:

[jaster220]

Seems about 1 to 1.5" fell here at work this morning with a break in the action this pm, roads should be decent by evening commute time. 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Looks like the models didn't really handle the WAA snow as far west as it appears to be snowing into W IL this morning. There is a weenie band of 30-35 dbz returns all the way out towards Starved Rock, IL and will swing into Peoria, IL.  @Devy

A lot of that band was plagued by dry air.  Tonight’s wave looks more interesting, could be a narrow band of 2”+ totals. 

[Hoosier]

Looking like a nice burst of snow around here tomorrow.  There are some pretty steep mid level lapse rates feeding into this thing which should help.