Feb 5 & 6 Clipper wave for Upper MW/GL's/and points S.E.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Looking like a nice burst of snow around here tomorrow.  There are some pretty steep mid level lapse rates feeding into this thing which should help.

NAM12 says 2nd round/wave focuses more down your way. Are you thinking it'll have some convective elements?

[Stacsh]

A few tiny flakes you couldn’t even see and maybe some freezing drizzle earlier.   Otherwise nothing.    Dry air just tearing anything apart here.     

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

NAM12 says 2nd round/wave focuses more down your way. Are you thinking it'll have some convective elements?

I don't know.  Haven't looked at it for more than 2 minutes.  A minor snowfall in February that will start melting in the afternoon doesn't really grab my interest to a great degree.

[Hoosier]

Here's what LOT has to say

 

The window for wintry precipitation from this weather system
will remain rather short (~3-5 hours) late tonight through early
Friday morning. Precipitation type will be problematic,
particularly west-southwest of the Chicago metro area. In this
region, low-level warm air advection is expected to drive the
nose of a melting layer off the surface northeastward into
northwestern and central IL. Also, the system track will favor
more mid-level drying and potential lose of cloud ice west-
southwest of the Chicago metro area. Accordingly, P-Types west-
southwest of the metro will favor light freezing rain or drizzle
and the potential for a light glazing of ice on untreated
surfaces late tonight.

Across most of the northeastern IL into northwestern IN
(including much of the Chicago metro area) the precipitation
type late tonight into early Friday morning looks to be
primarily snow. While the window for this snow will again only
be 3 to 5 hours, there is concern that a "thump" of convective
heavy snow may occur just before daybreak as mid-level lapse
rates steepen (7C + per KM) considerably as strong dynamic
forcing along the low-level baroclinic zone sets up within the
exit region of the aforementioned upper level jet streak. If
this materializes, we could envision a quick 1-2 inch snowfall
across parts of the metro area in the 3 to 6 am timeframe.

With the increasing potential of this period of wintry
precipitation into the early Friday morning commute we have
opted to increase the messaging of this event with an SPS and
through our afternoon forecast graphic push. At this time, we
cannot rule out the need for a short fused Winter Weather
Advisory, but will let the evening shift get another look.

[jaster220]

Measured a solid (not fluff) 1.5" here at home just before the plow contractor got to my place. Came into town with plows and snowmobiles all over the place. A classic mid-winter's evening up here. Even noticed drifting with today's event. See what part 2 has in store with even higher winds as a short-lived (thankfully) Arctic Blast comes into town. 

[jaster220]

HRRR says I'm basically done, but hits Chicagoland and SWMI pretty hard:

[tStacsh]

Got around an inch of slop and some frz drizzle.   Just made a slushy mess.    Should all freeze up this weekend and be another miserable weekend of nuisance weather.    Hopefully we make a run at 40 next week just for a break from this.  

[Niko]

On 2/3/2026 at 7:45 PM, jaster220 said:

Was JUST about to post the same  Seems to intensify over SEMI similar to that surprise phase storm that the models and Mets missed due to a lack of data inputs from far north in Canada. May be similar surprises with this one. 

I scored 1.6" and 05" w yesterdays Arctic F totaling 2.1". Not too shabby and adding to my deep snowpack.

[jaster220]

32 minutes ago, Niko said:

I scored 1.6" and 05" w yesterday’s Arctic F totaling 2.1". Not too shabby and adding to my deep snowpack.

Nice! Similar for me 1.5 + 0.5 then the crazy windstorm last evening blew most of it “somewhere”

[Niko]

2 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Nice! Similar for me 1.5 + 0.5 then the crazy windstorm last evening blew most of it “somewhere”

I know right bud.....what in the world was that?? That wind was too insane. M garbage bins flew in a different state 

[jaster220]

On 2/7/2026 at 12:14 PM, jaster220 said:

Nice! Similar for me 1.5 + 0.5 then the crazy windstorm last evening blew most of it “somewhere”

My fresh snow has been located. There is now a 24” drift in the back garden area the top 2-3” of which is grade AA+ igloo dense snow!