Spring 2026 Discussion

[PhiEaglesfan712]

It is time to kick off a new thread for spring discussion. It feels like we are in transition, as the -ENSO/-PDO regime is coming to end. Are we heading towards an el nino, a flip to +PDO, or both?

 

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

I’m curious.  How much above average will temps be in Houston, TX for this spring and summer.  And what about Sacramento, CA??  Will Sacramento repeat the hell summer of 2024 or will it be milder like in 2025??  Will Houston have another 9 month long summer this year or will El Niño save the day!!  One thing that’s great about El Niño is there will be no need to watch the tropics thsi year!!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 hours ago, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

I’m curious.  How much above average will temps be in Houston, TX for this spring and summer.  And what about Sacramento, CA??  Will Sacramento repeat the hell summer of 2024 or will it be milder like in 2025??  Will Houston have another 9 month long summer this year or will El Niño save the day!!  One thing that’s great about El Niño is there will be no need to watch the tropics thsi year!!

That's not always the case. If we have a modoki el nino, like 2004, we could have a very active season. Also, our last el nino (2023) was another active season.

[mlgamer]

I was going through some old files and ran across some pics of a weak funnel that passed over my house on May 5, 2011. This system did produce a tornado southwest of me, but luckily nothing around MBY. Here is a pic of it pretty much over my house and as it passed by to the north.

Also, this was just a little more than two weeks before the devastating Joplin, MO tornado of May 22. Pretty active May that year.

[tStacsh]

I just hope we have a spring in Michigan.  Usually just flips to summer in mid to late May.   The lack of consistent thunderstorms has been interesting the last decade as well.    I think we are back to a typical yoyo spring with lots of warmth and severe weather.   The drought in the Midwest should end.   

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Warm weather looks like the theme for the first half of spring:

March 23-29:

March 30-April 5

April 6-12

[Hoosier]

I'm a bit skeptical about rolling with warmth unabated into April.  Not that I would mind though.

[westMJim]

I already posted this in the February discussion, but will toss this up here as well.

 

March & Meteorological Spring

March

Over the 31 days of March Grand Rapids gains about 1 hour and 28 minutes. The average High/Low starts out at 38/23 and ends the month at 51/32. The record high for March at GR is 87° on the 21^st in 2012; the coldest low is -13 on March 8^th, 1943. The average mean is 35.6, the warmest mean is 50.7° in 2012 and the coldest mean is 23.9 in 1960. The average snowfall is around 8.3” the most is 36.0” set in 1965, the least 0” set in 2011.  Here are some March top 5.

Warmest

1.       50.7° in 2012

2.       45.9° in 1945

3.       45.0° in 1910

4.       44.1° in 1946

5.       42.1° in 2000

Coldest

1.       23.9° in 1960

2.       25.0° in 1912

3.       26.1° in 1965

4.       26.6° in 2014

5.       26.7° in 1900

Last year the mean for March was 40.5 a departure of +4.8

Snowiest

1.       36.0” in 1965

2.       25.9” in 1971

3.       25.3” in 1932

4.       22.6” in 2002

5.       21.9” in 1954

Last year 1.6” of snow fell.

In the last 30 years the highest temperature in March has reached 70 or better 16 times with the highest being 87 in 2012.  The coldest high temperature for March in the last 30 years is 56 and that has happened 4 times the last time was in 2018. The coldest reading for March in the last 30 years was -8 in 2014 and the warmest low was 19 in 2012.

Meteorological Spring

Late spring, summer and early fall are my favorite weather times of the year here in Michigan. I think Michigan is one of the best locations to be in the summer (but more on that just before summer get here) here are some records and averages for meteorological spring (March through May)

The current 30-year average is 47.7°; the warmest is 54.1° in 2012. The 2^nd warmest was 52.6 in 1977. The coldest spring was in 1890 with a mean of 41.7°. Last year it was 48.5°

 On average Grand Rapids receives 10.1” of snow the most fell in 1965 when 41.4” fell that spring (101.4” fell that winter season). The least spring snowfall is a trace in 1945. Last year 1.7” fell. The wettest spring was in 1976 when 16.37” of rain and melted snow fell and the driest was in 1887 when only 3.54” was reported the current 30-year average is 9.70” Last year 9.99” fell.

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

On 2/21/2026 at 11:05 AM, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

I’m curious.  How much above average will temps be in Houston, TX for this spring and summer.  And what about Sacramento, CA??  Will Sacramento repeat the hell summer of 2024 or will it be milder like in 2025??  Will Houston have another 9 month long summer this year or will El Niño save the day!!  One thing that’s great about El Niño is there will be no need to watch the tropics thsi year!!

Solely relying on ENSO is not the way. The wettest winter in SoCal history happened very recently in a Niña year.

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

The RRR (Rediculous Resilient Ridge) is in firm control of Houston, TX and will likely remain in control until at least October.

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

The climate of Houston is changing so rapidly that weather statistics completely fail here.  The average of 1991-2020 is 2006 or about 20 years ago.  I call them the lagging averages cuz 20 years is a massive amount of time when climate change can be measured on a year to year basis.  There needs to be a better way to calculate averages for such a rapidly changing climate.  Houston, TX is the epicenter of global warming and should be studied more by climate scientists..  

[Andie]

Talk about happy. Our long dry spell is interrupted by some spring rain.  

I’ll deal with the resultant allergies just to get the rivers and lakes back. Not to mention my yard!

 

[Minny_Weather]

On 3/2/2026 at 12:32 PM, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

The climate of Houston is changing so rapidly that weather statistics completely fail here.  The average of 1991-2020 is 2006 or about 20 years ago.  I call them the lagging averages cuz 20 years is a massive amount of time when climate change can be measured on a year to year basis.  There needs to be a better way to calculate averages for such a rapidly changing climate.  Houston, TX is the epicenter of global warming and should be studied more by climate scientists..  

Let it all out.

[Tom]

The Euro Seasonal is suggesting a very wet and active late Spring and early Summer for most on here...

 

How about Summer??  Can you see the Ring of Fire??  I love seeing the wet signal for So Cal and the Four Corners...line it up mother nature!

 

[Andie]

Looks like North Texas might get some rain.  

[Niko]

Looks like it stays in the 40s all of next week w no real warm air in sight. On average looks like a good bet. Hopefully, April brings in the 50s and 60s and possibly even 70s as Greek Orthodox Easter begins to arrive.

[Niko]

On 2/26/2026 at 9:11 AM, tStacsh said:

I just hope we have a spring in Michigan.  Usually just flips to summer in mid to late May.   The lack of consistent thunderstorms has been interesting the last decade as well.    I think we are back to a typical yoyo spring with lots of warmth and severe weather.   The drought in the Midwest should end.   

I am so ready for severe weather season. Bring it pls. I miss those dark developing skies, along w strong winds following it and then all hell breaks loose. 

[WinterSquall23]

41 minutes ago, Niko said:

Looks like it stays in the 40s all of next week w no real warm air in sight. On average looks like a good bet. Hopefully, April brings in the 50s and 60s and possibly even 70s as Greek Orthodox Easter begins to arrive.

Looking forward to warmer weather and agree to that. That 70s day we had was awesome!!  Currently it is 29 and we got a skiff of snow.  

[Niko]

37 minutes ago, WinterSquall23 said:

Looking forward to warmer weather and agree to that. That 70s day we had was awesome!!  Currently it is 29 and we got a skiff of snow.  

Waz up amigo....i know right..those 70s felt sooo nice. I even topped out at 75. Pls..no snow and this snow that we get tanite will be gone in no time as temps rise to a balmy near 60F on Sunday LOL. Enjoy ur weekend btw!

[summerrules]

On 2/27/2026 at 6:37 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Warm weather looks like the theme for the first half of spring:

March 23-29:

March 30-April 5

April 6-12

The 8-14 day CPC outlook verified well.

[Niko]

Maybe some 50s by end of March....but no big warm-ups are expected anytime soon.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Looks like a torch to begin April in the East:

[Clinton]

@Andie Some severe weather for the southern plains to start April. 

[summerrules]

5 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Looks like a torch to begin April in the East:

The models have really done just a piss-poor job at handling the pattern lately, even in the short range. I think the recent big storm kind of 33 with the data too as they were (and still are to an extent) underestimating the warmth that is on the way for the Midwest, especially in areas which were impacted by the snowstorm.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Andie Some severe weather for the southern plains to start April. 

Wow.  I’m ready for it.  We need to start building up the lakes and aquifer for another summer.  
It’s a chilly 60* right now. We’ll see a low of 48.  
Strange, currently No rain forecast for 10 days. 
Please, - not another dry Spring and Summer. 

[Timmy Supercell]

79, 60, 34...

Those were HIGH temperatures Sunday, yesterday and today. :P

Next few days will probably climb as fast as it dropped too. Actually, if you compare the 4pm temperature from Sunday to Monday, it was a -47 degree change. That has to be the wildest in several years here. 

[summerrules]

This is what I mean; even the AI Euro was very cold-biased for the Midwest (along with a PNW warm bias) at a longer lead time due to the overamplification of the eastern trough, and I honestly can't help but think it's continuing to do that for next week and beyond.

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

@Andie Some severe weather for the southern plains to start April. 

That week has just about always given me a stronger t'storm event in the Ohio Valley.

No superstitions involved. On nearly the same day two years in a row Ashland is in a tornado warning (4/3/25, 4/2/24, and remember the 1974 outbreak on 4/3?). 

One of the loudest bangs of thunder I had was on April Fool's morning 2023 around 3:30am. Woke me out of deep sleep and my hands were shaking for 30 minutes after that lol

[Tom]

The JMA seasonal came out last week and these are the maps below for May & June...

May...

 

 

Precip/Temp...looking quite wet and near normal temps overall for the central CONUS...not so much for our southern folks as the Summer Ridge will fire up early and often.  I feel for ya @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Iceresistance @Black Hole. I will say, however, those of you in OK fair a much better chance for storm action.

June...the start of MET Summer will entail some great weather overall, none more so than in the 4 corners as the Monsoon might have an early start.  That has been on my mind since late Fall and early Winter as I suggested the distinct location of the dominant ridge over the Rockies into TX should create a favorable reversal of winds pumping moisture up from the Pacific.

 

Precip/Temp... @Andielooks like it may start off rather HOT this summer..

 

[Tom]

TWC take on the rest of Spring & early Met Summer...

 

 

[Andie]

Just curious did anyone feel the recent quake?
5.4 Quake - South of Springfield  

[summerrules]

@PhiEaglesfan712 may end up being right after all with his call for a record warm April.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

April looks to begin warm: 

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

The weather gods are a piece of .  This weather pattern is controlled by Satan!!  Texas is dying!!

[Niko]

On 3/21/2026 at 1:08 PM, Andie said:

Just curious did anyone feel the recent quake?
5.4 Quake - South of Springfield  

No!

[Niko]

Have a feeling this will be a cool, wet spring & summer.

[jaster220]

On 4/4/2026 at 12:15 PM, Niko said:

Have a feeling this will be a cool, wet spring & summer.

The comparison with 2012 showed how that bounced back-n-forth between AN/MAN and N or BN. Once we finally lose the influence of mega-snowpack in Yooperland and S Canada, this one may do similar. Have quite a wait ahead unfortunately.

[Niko]

Had my first Tornado Warning on Sunday of this severe weather season, but luckily, it occurred near the airport (Van Buren Area)and not over my pl. I heard that there was a confirm Tornado there. Yikes.  

[jaster220]

17 hours ago, Niko said:

Had my first Tornado Warning on Sunday of this severe weather season, but luckily, it occurred near the airport (Van Buren Area)and not over my pl. I heard that there was a confirm Tornado there. Yikes.  

As in Van Buren county? That's no where near yby, right?

[PhiEaglesfan712]