February 25-27 Snow Job

Hoosier · February 21

Currently have some reasonable general agreement on a decent system rolling through. It's more of a Pacific system than a clipper, so it could have a somewhat respectable amount of moisture. Looks like enough cold air for snow on the northern end. Discuss.

Tom · February 22

D**n, overnight GFS runs look quite impressive for this one...

0z GFS...

06z GFS...

MKEstorm · February 22

The GFS keeps bumping this north and south. Back north again on the 12z run.

Tom · February 22

11 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

The GFS keeps bumping this north and south. Back north again on the 12z run.

Juicy juicy and add some Lehs on top! This is the type of system I loved to track back in Chi. Hope it pans out as advertised.

MKEstorm · February 22

…but the Canadian and ICON say NO!

GFS

GDPS

ICON

Tom · February 22

55 minutes ago, MKEstorm said:

…but the Canadian and ICON say NO!

GFS

GDPS

ICON

It's a difficult pattern and high bust potential on the placement of where the jet dynamics set up but I do like S WI/N IL being near the jackzone...points EAST look golden also into S MI...

Hoosier · February 23

Arguably feels like we have worse model alignment now than yesterday. lol

Hoosier · February 23

I don't think the NAM is going to be suppressed.

Hoosier · February 23

Indeed in the northern camp. Battling ice here at the end of the run.

Money · February 23

GFS said what storm

tStacsh · February 23

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Arguably feels like we have worse model alignment now than yesterday. lol

The Models have been awful for storms in the medium range. Hardly looking at them at this point outside of a pattern look.

indianajohn · February 23

NAM being decommissioned?

Hoosier · February 23

29 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

NAM being decommissioned?

Yeah. Don't know the date but it's supposed to be sometime soon.

Hoosier · February 23

Other than the NAM, have a pretty good consensus on being on the northern fringe here or even getting whiffed to the south. Could still see some degree of shifting of course.

tStacsh · February 23

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah. Don't know the date but it's supposed to be sometime soon.

I heard March, being replaced by the RRFS.

Hoosier · February 24

The ensembles across multiple model suites have a number of members with a more significant surface low in the Ohio Valley area than their op runs. So given that and the NAM being farther north (even though the NAM can be goofy at this timeframe), I wouldn't be that surprised if this system becomes more robust/shifts north on future model runs.

bud2380 · February 24

This has disappeared on models. It's nothing more than sprinkles and flurries on the Euro.

jaster220 · February 24

Boy did this not age well! Sad really. @Hoosier trying to force the hand of a pattern that's just not giving it up for Chicagoland. I'd gladly send you my clipper if I could.