March 2026 Observations & Discussion

[clintbeed1993]

If the GFS and EURO have any clue, this will be one of the wettest March's of all time 

Bonkers pattern with a storm every few days for the first couple weeks of March 

[Black Hole]

Some crazy totals over me on the latest runs. This is a LOT of rain for this time of year if its anything close to accurate. 

[Clinton]

Can the GFS pull out another win and deliver eastern Kansas and Missouri one final snow this season?  0z GFS 

6z GFS 

6z Euro 

 

[tStacsh]

Yes please.  Warmth and storms

[Clinton]

ICON had snow over Iowa and Chicago instead of Kansas and Missouri Sunday. 

[Tony]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

ICON had snow over Iowa and Chicago instead of Kansas and Missouri Sunday. 

Modeling has just been terrible in this range so I would say this is not going to happen. 

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

Modeling has just been terrible in this range so I would say this is not going to happen. 

We at the point where we just throw out any model that has accumulating snow in Chicago? 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, tStacsh said:

Yes please.  Warmth and storms

False Spring #2?

[Clinton]

9 minutes ago, Tony said:

Modeling has just been terrible in this range so I would say this is not going to happen. 

 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

We at the point where we just throw out any model that has accumulating snow in Chicago? 

I think the same thing when they show snow here lol.

[tStacsh]

3 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

False Spring #2?

I'll take 5 fake springs over endless cold and clouds in March 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, tStacsh said:

I'll take 5 fake springs over endless cold and clouds in March 

I think someone once said it's better to have had warmth and lost than never to have warmth at all.  Or something like that.  

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, clintbeed1993 said:

If the GFS and EURO have any clue, this will be one of the wettest March's of all time 

Bonkers pattern with a storm every few days for the first couple weeks of March 

Let's do this! (even if its frustrating as heck that this couldn't come during winter)

[Hoosier]

I'm what I would call conditionally bullish on the Sunday-Monday system.  If the track can pan out favorably here, then the timing looks good as it's a Sunday evening into Monday morning event which would negate any possible sun angle issues.  Although I would say that the snow looks heavy enough in the main swath to probably negate any significant sun angle problems anyway.

[Tom]

@Clinton @OttumwaSnomow both might need some canoes...I'm pretty sure your pounds will be replenished!

[Iceresistance]

@Black HoleLook out for the ensemble uptrends! I prefer using ensembles for long range forecasting

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Yes please.  Warmth and storms

Certainly shades of last March on temps, now the moisture could be a whole other planet. When was the last time a 3-week period looked remotely this wet up here??

 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@Clinton @OttumwaSnomow both might need some canoes...I'm pretty sure your pounds will be replenished!

@Tom

I hope some day my part of the midwest returns back to normal precipitation!  I live next to the mississippi river not the Dakotas!

Also it will mostly just soak into the parched ground. It will take heavy rains once the soils are recharged to get into most ponds.

Tired of seeing maps like this one. Past 14 days precip. I actually 0.0". .02" in Feb.

[Black Hole]

6 hours ago, Iceresistance said:

@Black HoleLook out for the ensemble uptrends! I prefer using ensembles for long range forecasting

Oh don't worry, I definitely lean into ensembles above deterministic models. I just can't help myself and like to post outlandish deterministic runs

[Andie]

Go for it Black Hole!!   

I’m a deranged optimist and we need the rain!

[Black Hole]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

Go for it Black Hole!!   

I’m a deranged optimist and we need the rain!

We don't even have to rely on the crazy runs, the EPS mean is very wet the next 2 weeks. Drought to flood! 

[Andie]

Oh Babee!!!!  
That’s the best news I’ve heard in weeks! 

I’ll plan some nice inside things to do.  (Like watching it rain).
We are desperate.  Good timing.  

[Hoosier]

Row row row my boat, your boat, and almost everybody's boat.

 

[Clinton]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Row row row my boat, your boat, and almost everybody's boat.

 

The drought started last August and that would put a dent in it.  Here's how far below normal we are since last August. 

[jaster220]

8 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Row row row my boat, your boat, and almost everybody's boat.

 

I'm at least "canoe level" up here!

[Clinton]

The model battle on Sunday continues with the GFS and ICON producing some accumulating snow for the KC area.  Other models continue to stay north.

[Tom]

As I predicted, the 3/3 system is showing up precisely over the TX PanHandle region using some LR methods that have been quite useful to say the least, however, it ain't producing a whole lot of wintry weather.  

 

Where do we go from here is the question???  Warm and Wet is a certain Bet for most on here....but the "Ides of March" will come back Roaring in for our northern friends as the SW Flow begins to take on a different caliber as the pattern setting up Week 2 (9th-11th) really digs the troughs into the 4 corners region.  The amplification of the North American 500mb begins in the NE PAC as it fires up the Block, coinciding with blocking HP's over Canada...here comes the late Season Arctic reservoir that'll bleed south into the Upper MW/Plains.  Blizzard Alley appears to be living up to it's name I'd imagine.  So, with that being said, enjoy the warmth and copious rainfall to those who need it bc nature is gonna show up in a Bigly way for the heartland of the USA. 

 

What I'm interested in seeing is how much we can tap into some PAC moisture as the storm parade hits the west and troughs dig into my area over the SW.  I do believe the mean trough heads into the Central CONUS for a better part of Week 2 in MAR, but then comes back a bit more west for Week 3 as I see it now.  Keep an eye for the Greenland Block to pop and lock Week 2 in Mar into April.  That's the bigger deal for the GL's/MW peeps and Northeast folks as you get deeper into MAR and Spring time.

I'm expecting some big storms to roll on through around St Patty's day or thereabouts based on this map below...

 

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Aggressive forecast in the Tenn valley

Maybe some thunderstorms for Hoosier

[Black Hole]

Not a lot of rain still the next couple of days, but Wednesday onwards looks pretty solid still. I'd be surprised if we didn't get at least a few inches of rain. At least some severe weather is also likely though I think the better threat for that will be southeast of here. 

[westMJim]

Meteorological spring

 

Welcome to March and the start of meteorological spring. Just over two inches of new snow fell later in the day yesterday and March has started with around 2” of snow on the ground. With clear skies the temperature has dropped down to 13 here.  This might be the coldest low and most snow for the month of March. After a cold day today it will warm up over the next 7 days and we may even reach 60 or better later in the week and there looks to be rain and even a chance of some thunder, welcome to spring 2026.

 

KEY MESSAGES

CLEARING SKIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY

MAINLY RAIN LIKELY ON TUESDAY

INCREASINGLY WARMER AND WET LATE IN THE WEEK

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

Sunny, with a high near 32. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 17. Calm wind.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 41. South southeast wind 3 to 8 mph.

Monday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Tuesday

Rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33.

Wednesday

A 50 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 49.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Thursday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53.

Thursday Night

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41.

Friday

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Friday Night

Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57.

 

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 48/23 that 48 was just after midnight. There was 0.10” of precipitation that fell as 2.0” of snow. The highest wind speed was 35 MPH out of the NW. The total snowfall for February 2026 was 8.5” for meteorological winter the total snowfall was 63.4” and for the season Grand Rapids is now at 74.7” For today the average H/L is 38/23 the record high of 58 was in 1992 the coldest high is 13 in 1962 the record low of -5 was in 1967 and the warmest low of 39 was in 2004. The wettest of 0.59” that fell as the most snowfall of 7.2” was in 2016. The most snow on the ground was 14” in 1900 and 1901.  The sunrise today is at 7:18AM and the sunset is at 6:32 PM with 11h 16m of sun up time that is the same as it is on October 10^th

Some weather history for March 1^st 1980, Norfolk, VA, received 13.7 inches of snow to push their season total to a record 41.9 inches exceeding their previous record by more than four inches. (David Ludlum).   An unusually large Florida tornado, 500 yards in width at times, killed one person and caused six million dollars damage near Fort Lauderdale. (The Weather Channel) 2006,  Dallas/Forth Worth Airport breaks a 107-year-old North Texas temperature record after reaching 93 degrees. Mineral Wells reached 97, Wichita Falls 96 and Fort Worth Meacham Airport 90.

 

[Clinton]

It looks like precipitation today will be mostly rain for mby with about an inch expected.  KC could see a mix of precip with a good deal of sleet.

[Tom]

Over the past 2.5 years of living in the PHX valley, I've experienced the following:

1) Hottest Summer on Record (2024)

2) The Wettest Autumn on Record last year (2025)

3) The Warmest Winter on Record (2026)

Other impressive milestones across the state:

1) Snowbowl Ski Resorts longest ski season 2023-24 (185 days till June 1st)

 

While all of these facts above are quite impressive, I'm starting to look ahead towards the Monsoon season and what this years season may bring into the Valley.  Early indications are for an above normal season and based on my research and gut feeling, I've given it a lot of thought lately.  The placement of this year's LRC's anchor troughs/ridges over the Southwest and S Plains suggest to me the reversal of the Monsoonal High will be in a prime location this season.  Similar to this graphic below...

On a side note, while the Rockies and most of the intermountain west have been quite dry this past winter, I do see a positive sign for early summer Monsoon storms to fire up.  Now, I will say, that "dry" thunderstorms or any lightning could spark fires out of nowhere, however, nature should deliver moisture into the region and might put a lid on fire dangers in the 4 corners region.  Not sure about farther west and north as they may end up a bit to far from the monsoon moisture.

[jaster220]

@westMJim

Always amazed to see GR score 20” more snow than Harrison yet all of it gone already while we are still working on that up here. Happy Met spring!

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

@westMJim

Always amazed to see GR score 20” more snow than Harrison yet all of it gone already while we are still working on that up here. Happy Met spring!

Nice to be in a more favored area for lake effect.  

On that note, South Bend is at 91.1".  Pretty good.

[Stacsh]

Today may be the coldest day of the month.   Certainly the next 10 days as temps soar to early spring like warmth with highs over 40 for the foreseeable future.    High of 30 today but the sun is out and it’s glorious.   Instant mood change as the calendar flipped to March and seeing the extended forecast.   It’s inevitable we will see some cold weather again, but the further we go into spring a day or two isn’t bad.    
 

 

[westMJim]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Always amazed to see GR score 20” more snow than Harrison yet all of it gone already

GR is further south than Harrison and is lower in elevation so GR is warmer. For some reason there are not many climate records for Harrison and for that matter all of Clare County.   Note South Bend is at 91.1 that is almost 20" more than GR and they also do not have any snow now on the ground.

[KCSmokey]

Getting thunder sleet here in N. Overland Park.  That was wild!

[KCSmokey]

[MI Storm]

Thunder sleet on the north side of KC! Only 2nd time I’ve experienced it. 

[MI Storm]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

It looks like precipitation today will be mostly rain for mby with about an inch expected.  KC could see a mix of precip with a good deal of sleet.

Ripping sleet here 8 or so miles north of downtown KC

[Clinton]

44 minutes ago, MI Storm said:

Ripping sleet here 8 or so miles north of downtown KC

Getting it here also with thunder.