March 2026 Observations & Discussion

[mlgamer]

Off topic...did anyone in Nebraska or elsewhere feel the 4.1 earthquake south of Hastings today? We felt it at our house here in Topeka...a couple of quick, very noticeable rumbles that lightly rattled a few things.

[mlgamer]

Back to the weather...currently I have a steady rain and 34.5 degrees. This is like my most unfavorite weather possible. 

[gimmesnow]

I don't usually complain, but the snow in the UP SUCKED  today. Hopefully it gets a little softer tomorrow with the warmer temps. With it being warm then cold everything is ice. I thought they had enough natural snow up here last week, but I was very wrong. It's amazing how the natural snow can be soft with just a little crust on top, but the ski hill can be ice to the point you can't even hold an edge at all. 

[Black Hole]

I had 0.05" today and several rumbles of thunder. It wasn't much but it was something. Looks potentially pretty wet Wed-Thur.

The bigger story looks like Friday though. That definitely has potential to be a more potent severe weather event. I'd say the way it looks now it'll be at least an enhanced risk by the time it arrives. 

[Andie]

We’ll see some chilly weather tonight. 
Low of 59* and humidity at 90% by 6 am.  
We’re still a long way from warm spring days. I’m sitting here pretty chilled. 

[Bryan1117]

7 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Off topic...did anyone in Nebraska or elsewhere feel the 4.1 earthquake south of Hastings today? We felt it at our house here in Topeka...a couple of quick, very noticeable rumbles that lightly rattled a few things.

Didn't notice anything here as I was outside at the time of the earthquake... however I saw posts online from a few people around Omaha that say they felt it.

[westMJim]

With clear skies the temperature dropped down to 13 here in MBY. The day started with 2” of snow on the ground and even with a high of just 28 with the sunshine all of the snow in the sun melted and there is just a trace of snow on the ground this morning. After todays cold start the major pattern change is still on tap. The week ahead looks to get increasing warmer and wetter with highs increasing from near 40 today up to the upper 50’s to low 60’s by the weekend and lows increasing from the upper 20’s to the upper 30’s to low 40’s But all that said I will just say Beware of the Ides of March!

 

KEY MESSAGES

LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN FOR TUESDAY

WARM AND WET THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

Sunny, with a high near 41. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the morning.

Tonight

Increasing clouds, with a low around 26. Light east southeast wind.

Tuesday

A slight chance of freezing rain before 10am, then a slight chance of drizzle between 10am and 1pm, then a chance of rain after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 29. Calm wind.

Wednesday

A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. East wind 5 to 7 mph.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

Showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night

A chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Friday

Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63.

Friday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51.

Saturday

A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 58.

 

The climate summery for February 2026 at Grand Rapids the mean temperature was 27.8 a departure of +1.2 the high for the month was 60 on the 18th the low for the month was -8 on the 1st there were 0 CDD’s and 1075 HDD’s there was 1.18” of precipitation and 8.5” of snowfall. There were 6 days with 10” of more on the ground and 19 days with 1” or more. 

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 28/11 there was no rain/snowfall, the day started with 2” on snow on the ground but with the high sun angle the only snow left was in the shade. For today the average H/L is 39/23 the record high of 60 was in 1961 and 1983 the coldest high of 10 was in 1925 the record low of -8 was in 1978 the warmest low of 40 was in 2004 and 1921. The most precipitation of 1.29” and the most snowfall of 13.6” was in 2002. The sunrise time today is 7:16AM and the sunset time is 6:33PM.

 

Some weather history for March 2nd 1927,  Raleigh, NC, was buried under 17.8 inches of snow in 24 hours, a record for that location. Nashville NC received 31 inches of snow. The average snow depth in the state of Carolina was fourteen inches. (The Weather Channel) and in 1985, A massive winter storm struck the Northern Plains Region. The storm produced up to 33 inches of snow in northeastern South Dakota, at Summit and at Milbank, and also produced high winds which whipped the heavy snow into drifts twenty feet high. (Storm Data)

 

[Clinton]

I got .70 inches of rain yesterday.  There were some totals over an inch just to my north.

[mlgamer]

Pretty impressive 5 day severe weather outlook for Friday for the central part of the country . All severe modes possible. Maybe an active spring is in the cards this year.

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, mlgamer said:

Pretty impressive 5 day severe weather outlook for Friday for the central part of the country . All severe modes possible. Maybe an active spring is in the cards this year.

I'm ready for it the lighting streaking across the sky yesterday was cool. 

[Tom]

PHX set a new Record High temp yesterday at 93F!  Today, it will be the last day of 90's as we steadily drop down through the 80's into the 70's by FRI.  I'm getting a bit more enthusiastic for some moisture into the region by late weekend into early next week.  The cut-off low looks to cycle back and the Euro is taking the lead on this one IMO.

[chescowxman]

We will see well below average temperatures both today and tomorrow before we see about a 10-day period of well above normal temperatures. We turn colder again around the 13th of March. Some southern areas could see some light snow developing this afternoon with snow spreading northbound across the rest of the area after 1am. Expect to see some Winter Weather Advisories issued later for many areas N and W of Philly. Any snow will change to freezing rain and then all rain by no later than about 10am on Tuesday. It could be a slippery commute in spots. For the rest of the week, we warm to well above normal temperatures with solid changes of needed rain for most days with the exception of Friday.

[jaster220]

-6F here in Grayling when I arrived to work this morning (-9F Gaylord). Spring you say?? Not up here in NMI it isn't!

[Hoosier]

59 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

-6F here in Grayling when I arrived to work this morning (-9F Gaylord). Spring you say?? Not up here in NMI it isn't!

I don't mind below zero temps earlier in winter, but not much of a fan at this point on the calendar.  I'd assume we're done with below zero temps imby as we're really starting to fight climo and there is nothing like that being flashed in the extended.

[MMike]

.97 inches of rain for me in NE KC. Beautiful soaking rain with a bit of sleet for good measure. Rained at 33 degrees for hours, if only it could have been 28 degrees. So close!!! Very wet week in KC it appears, just what the doctor ordered as we quickly approach spring. 

Still looking at a potential cold surge or several cold surges March 10th-20th, lets see who scores some late season snows. 

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

-6F here in Grayling when I arrived to work this morning (-9F Gaylord). Spring you say?

Not to mention that at Gaylord the record lows for June is 22, July its 30 for August its 26. And at Grayling the record low for June is 23, July 28 and 26 in August.  So frost and freezing temperatures have happened every month there. As for this year Beware the Ides of March. BTW the official low here in GR overnight was 14 with no snow on the ground

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

It may never rain again In Houston, TX

[WeatherProtogen]

nice! some possible nasty weather on Wednesday!

spring is finally here!

[Husker-weather]

22 hours ago, mlgamer said:

Off topic...did anyone in Nebraska or elsewhere feel the 4.1 earthquake south of Hastings today? We felt it at our house here in Topeka...a couple of quick, very noticeable rumbles that lightly rattled a few things.

I did not feel it. But there are alot in southeast Nebraska that did. 

[Stacsh]

Always amazes me the power of the sun

[chescowxman]

This Winter Season (December thru February) of 2025-26 here in the philly burbs of Chester County PA finished as the 14th coldest winter across 133 winter seasons since 1893-94. Below are the top 20 coldest winters. Of note 4 of the coldest have occurred since Y2K.

[gimmesnow]

I went to porcupine mountains and snowboarded. Honestly the snow was great and weather was amazing. Totally made up for yesterday. I guess they just can't groom at all at the place I was before Porkies. Beautiful view of Lake Superior too. 

[Andie]

7 hours ago, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

It may never rain again In Houston, TX

I know how you feel. It’s been so dry I’m dealing with nose bleeds.  
Geez! We need more moisture. 

[Clinton]

Upgraded for Friday 

[westMJim]

The overnight low here in MBY was 23 with cloudy skies it is now up to 27.  Today looks to be the coldest day for the next week with highs only in the lower 40’s the rest of the next 7 days will see highs going from the upper 40’s all the way up to the lower 60’s there will be chances of rain and even a chance of some thunder. At early March taste of spring. But that said it looks like a cool down around mid month.  So Beware of the Ides of March.

 

KEY MESSAGES  

SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) FOR DRIZZLE TODAY

RAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

A slight chance of drizzle between 10am and 3pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph.

Tonight

Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Calm wind.

Wednesday

Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 53. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Light east wind.

Thursday

Showers. High near 49. East wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Thursday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40.

Friday

Showers likely after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52.

Saturday

Showers likely before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62.

Saturday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 36.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 56.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 42.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

 

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 38/14 there was no rain/snowfall the day started was a trace of snow on the ground. The highest wind gust was 23 MPH out of the SE.  For today the average H/L is 39/23 the record high of 72 was in 1983 the coldest high of 12 was in 1943 the record low of -9 was in 1943 the warmest low of 40 was in 1974 and 1964. The wettest was 1.32” in 1941 the most snowfall of 5.0” was in 2007 the most snow on the ground was 19” in 2014.  The sunrise time today is 7:14 AM and the sunset time is 6.34 PM.

Some weather history for March 3^rd. 1980, A coastal storm produced 25 inches of snow at Elizabeth City, NC, and 30 inches at Cape Hatteras NC. At Miami FL the mercury dipped to 32 degrees. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 2003, It was a day of temperature extremes. Miami reached a high temperature of 90 degrees, the earliest observed 90 degree temperature since March 5, 1964. Meanwhile Marquette, MI, dropped to 30 degrees below zero, the lowest temperature ever recorded in the city in March.

 

[Tom]

I took a walk around the fountain last night and it was such a delightful evening with a warm southerly breeze and a comfortable 80F.  It reminded me sorta like those warm summer evenings in the Midwest when your in the warm sector of an approaching weather system.  I could have fell asleep outside that’s how nice it was!  Where’s the hammock when you need one!

Oh ya, and the moon was super bright before the eclipse…

 

 

 

 

Fast forward to this morning….

Took these about an hour ago…while it wasn’t a total complete eclipse, I did see the reddish tint on the moon.  

 

 

 

 

[Tom]

PHX did it again in repeat fashion and set another Record High temp of 93F yesterday!  As I read some of your posts, I have to keep reminding myself that winter is still hanging around in some parts of our Sub.  Thankfully, no more 90's for at least then next 10 days or so before the ridge builds back mid month and that will NOT bode well for ya'll in the Heartland and Lakes.  Hint, Hint...I think some snow will be flying and temps will be crashing as the return of the Cold cycle is showing up.

Up north in FLG, I saw this graphic from the NWS...anyone looking for bait should check out the worms in your backyard!  I remember as a kid, I used to climb over my neighbors fences and grab huge worms in their yards because they had ideal bushes and soils.  Those were some good childhood memories.

[Hawkeye]

The Euro is showing highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead of a strong cold front next Tuesday.

[MI Storm]

53 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

The Euro is showing highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s ahead of a strong cold front next Tuesday.

And then back to winter lol

[WeatherProtogen]

welp, seems like the severe threat is becoming more unlikely :/

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

I took a walk around the fountain last night and it was such a delightful evening with a warm southerly breeze and a comfortable 80F.  It reminded me sorta like those warm summer evenings in the Midwest when your in the warm sector of an approaching weather system.  I could have fell asleep outside that’s how nice it was!  Where’s the hammock when you need one!

Oh ya, and the moon was super bright before the eclipse…

 

 

 

 

Fast forward to this morning….

Took these about an hour ago…while it wasn’t a total complete eclipse, I did see the reddish tint on the moon.  

 

 

 

Pic of the fountain looks great @Tom. Reminds me of those late winter visits to fam in FL I used to do and the after dark walks. A bit jelly tbh

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

PHX did it again in repeat fashion and set another Record High temp of 93F yesterday!  As I read some of your posts, I have to keep reminding myself that winter is still hanging around in some parts of our Sub.  Thankfully, no more 90's for at least then next 10 days or so before the ridge builds back mid month and that will NOT bode well for ya'll in the Heartland and Lakes.  Hint, Hint...I think some snow will be flying and temps will be crashing as the return of the Cold cycle is showing up.

Up north in FLG, I saw this graphic from the NWS...anyone looking for bait should check out the worms in your backyard!  I remember as a kid, I used to climb over my neighbors fences and grab huge worms in their yards because they had ideal bushes and soils.  Those were some good childhood memories.

"that will NOT bode well for ya'll in the Heartland and Lakes.  Hint, Hint...I think some snow will be flying and temps will be crashing as the return of the Cold cycle is showing up."

Yuck! Hopefully the same theme of miss S and N will be in effect, lol.

[tStacsh]

6 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

"that will NOT bode well for ya'll in the Heartland and Lakes.  Hint, Hint...I think some snow will be flying and temps will be crashing as the return of the Cold cycle is showing up."

Yuck! Hopefully the same theme of miss S and N will be in effect, lol.

We will see,   I see the recent GFS flipped very warm again in the middle of the month.   I wouldn't put any stock in models 10-14 days out though.  Especially with such an active pattern.   This will change, but I'm not buying any epic cold either.   

[Hoosier]

Snow has been very hard to come by around here lately.  Wonder what percentage of this I will end up with.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, tStacsh said:

We will see,   I see the recent GFS flipped very warm again in the middle of the month.   I wouldn't put any stock in models 10-14 days out though.  Especially with such an active pattern.   This will change, but I'm not buying any epic cold either.   

Following the mantra "Nature knows" would indicate normal (let alone severe) winter is over for SMI. Doubtful we are 100% done with stat padding events like Saturday's ofc, particularly up my way and north. Models teasing cold-n-snow really haven't delivered much (see @Hoosier's post) on their threats really. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

[Black Hole]

Good elevated instability here tomorrow morning ahead of the storms. Some potential for severe hail. 

[Black Hole]

Friday still has the higher potential. Probably some storms firing along or east of the dry line. Plenty of moisture and long straight hodographs. Probably some splitting supercells with all hazards possible. 

[Hoosier]

Blues showing up

[Andie]

On 3/2/2026 at 12:25 PM, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

It may never rain again In Houston, TX

I know how you feel. It’s been so dry I’m dealing with nose bleeds.  
Geez! We need more moisture. 

Forecast shows 7 out of 11 days with chances for rain. 
it’s a start.