March 2026 Observations & Discussion

[Hoosier]

Definitely getting a bit intrigued by the severe threat on Thursday.  Not a slam dunk to be a big outbreak, but I'd say the ceiling is certainly higher than what we're seeing today and tomorrow.  It looks to have better low level and deep layer shear, and we won't have to work hard to get decent moisture return as the cold front from this current system never really gets that far south.  

[Clinton]

It official, the 6th record high since Feb 28th. 

***Record*** Kansas City has reached 85 degrees this hour (2PM) breaking the record high for the day which was 82 set in 1986. This is the 6th record high broken since 2/28.
#RecordBreakingKC

[Hoosier]

As of the 7 pm ob (well, 6:51 pm), the current reading of 79 at ORD is the warmest temperature at that hour in the month of March since March 29, 1986.  On that date, it was 84 at 7 pm after a high of 88.

Yes, that means that none of the days in March 2012 were this warm at this hour.  Those days all cooled off more quickly.

[Hoosier]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 77
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   920 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Iowa
     Northern Illinois
     Southern Wisconsin
     Lake Michigan

   * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 920 PM
     until 300 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will increase
   through late evening into the overnight across the region. Large
   hail is expected to be the most common severe hazard, but isolated
   damaging winds could also occur.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest
   of Des Moines IA to 45 miles south southeast of Racine WI. For a
   complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
   update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
   favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
   Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
   weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
   warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
   tornadoes.

   &&

   AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
   2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
   few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
   26030.

   ...Guyer

[chescowxman]

We will finish March with our 1st above normal temperature month since way back in September. Every fall and winter month except September ended with below normal temperatures. Our seesaw temperatures typical of spring will continue over the next several days. We have a well above normal day today before we turn much chiller tomorrow. We warm again by Friday through the weekend before turning much cooler again to start the new work week. Rain chances to really ramp up tomorrow into Wednesday night.

 

[Tom]

We saw more activity to my south yesterday near Casa Grande but nothing ever made it up this way.  Today and tonight is my best shot at getting anything out of this period.  Its actually a touch more humid today...it is currently 71F/52F....and I'll be honest, it feels darn nice!  Kinda feels like a midwest morning out here.  

[jaster220]

Arrived home yesterday to 71 beautiful degrees - cloudy but still so nice to finally hit that threshold. 42 here in Graying is a cold reality slap in the face ofc. 

[Hoosier]

With only 2.9", February + March combined will finish with the 7th lowest snowfall amount on record for Chicago.  One of the years that was lower was actually just two years ago in 2024.  

[summerrules]

All this convective activity really screwed up today's temps, not even sure if ORD will hit 70 at this point.

[Hoosier]

5 minutes ago, summerrules said:

All this convective activity really screwed up today's temps, not even sure if ORD will hit 70 at this point.

Yeah, frontal timing ended up not really being an issue, just way too much clouds and rain.

[Hoosier]

New day 3 SPC outlook expanded the risk area west and mentioned higher probabilities possible on future updates.

The 18z HRRR is on the higher end with dewpoints compared to some models. 

Valid at 18z Thursday:

[Andie]

Am I dreaming?  
 

 

[Hoosier]

O'Hare dropped 20 degrees in 15 minutes when the front came through.

[summerrules]

Chicago officially recorded an overall daily maximum of 54.9° in March 2026, which is nearly 8° above average and ranks as the 6th warmest on record (despite the month finishing only 14th warmest overall).

It’s interesting how daily highs have really been driving the + departures lately rather than warm overnight lows, and it wasn’t even a dry month either. Quite the opposite as a matter of fact with it being just shy of a top 10 wettest March with 4.54” of precip.

[mlgamer]

No surprise to anyone, March was warm here with a temp anomaly of +6.2 and some record highs to boot. Also, 0.01" of snow that no one remembers...lol.

[Hoosier]

Chicago is on a streak of 9 consecutive Marches with below average snowfall, which is the longest streak on record.  Been a bunch of 5-6 year streaks, but not 9.  

[Tom]

To no surprise, PHX set some unprecedented Heat stats this month.  We saw the earliest 100F ever recorded, the earliest 105F ever recorded and a streak of 8 days of 100F+  daytime highs along with some very warm overnight low's.  Yup, I truly did LIVE through History in the Valley of the Sun!

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

^PHX beat its old March monthly temp record by 6.5 degrees! They had a March that would have been 2nd warmest April on record!

DJFM Phoenix beat the 2nd place temp record by 4.2 degrees! 

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago is on a streak of 9 consecutive Marches with below average snowfall, which is the longest streak on record.  Been a bunch of 5-6 year streaks, but not 9.  

Even before this year March was really trending warm over the last 6 years

[StormchaserChuck1]

Warmest March on record for CONUS, beating 2012

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Warmest March on record for CONUS, beating 2012

Here's March 2012 for comparison.  Had the west even been just a little warmer in 2012, it probably would've been enough to keep 2012 in the top spot.

[StormchaserChuck1]

On 4/2/2026 at 4:07 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's March 2012 for comparison.  Had the west even been just a little warmer in 2012, it probably would've been enough to keep 2012 in the top spot.

Looks like we beat it by 1.5C. And March 2012 was actually the 2nd highest std warm US month ever. We're on a roll here since November with the Mount West heat ridge

[jaster220]

On 4/2/2026 at 4:07 PM, Hoosier said:

Here's March 2012 for comparison.  Had the west even been just a little warmer in 2012, it probably would've been enough to keep 2012 in the top spot.

I wanted this but instead had Winter 2.0 

A Morch it was if you were S and W