March 2026 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

More signs of cold coming mid month.

MJO moves into 7

[westMJim]

The overnight low here in MVY was 23 at the current time it is clear and 24. The next week is on tap to be on the warm side with several chances of rain and possible thunder. It will become very mild with highs maybe even reaching the mid to upper 60’s.  But there is a chance of a cool down later next week.

 

KEY MESSAGES

DRY TODAY, RAIN TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY  

PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK (NORMAL HIGHS UPPER 30S  
  TO LOW 40S)  

 

Detailed Forecast

Today

Patchy fog before 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 54. Calm wind becoming east southeast around 6 mph in the morning.

Tonight

A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly after 4am. Patchy fog after midnight. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 38. East wind around 6 mph.

Thursday

Showers, mainly after 7am. Patchy fog before noon. High near 46. East wind 7 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. East wind 5 to 8 mph.

Friday

Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. High near 66. Southeast wind 5 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Friday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 10pm, then showers likely between 10pm and 1am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 51. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Saturday

A 50 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 34.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 54.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 40.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 65.

Monday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 52.

Tuesday

Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 67.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 40/23 there was no rain or snowfall.  There was some sun and clouds. The highest wind speed was 15 MPH out of the E.  For today the average H/L is 39/24 the record high of 70 was in 2024 the coldest high of 13 was in 2002 the record low of -3 was in 1948 the warmest low of 49 was in 2024. The wettest was 1.36” in 1985 the most snowfall of 8.0” was in 1900 the most snow on the ground was 19” in 2014.  The sunrise today is at 7:13 AM and the sunset is at 6:35 PM, The sun up time is about the same as on October 8^th

Some weather history for March 4^th 1966, A severe blizzard raged across Minnesota and North Dakota. The blizzard lasted four days producing up to 35 inches of snow, and wind gusting to 100 mph produced snow drifts 30 to 40 feet high. Bismarck ND reported zero visibility for 11 hours. Traffic was paralyzed for three days. (2nd-5th) (The Weather Channel) and in 2008, Only two days after reaching 78 degrees, St. Louis receives nearly a foot of snow in seven hours, the biggest snowstorm in 15 years.

 

[westMJim]

12 minutes ago, Clinton said:

More signs of cold coming mid month.

Beware of the Ides of March

[Tom]

32 minutes ago, Clinton said:

More signs of cold coming mid month.

MJO moves into 7

I'll enjoy my Southwest Ridge....maybe a So Cal trip in the cards???

[Tom]

0z GFS...just because this is THE highest snow weenie run of the season???

 

[Clinton]

More rain today I'll take it!

[chescowxman]

Below is the February Climate Summary for The Chester County Area. February 2026 was our coldest February since 2015 and these first 2 months of the year represents our 25th coldest start to any year since records began back in 1893.

[MMike]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

More rain today I'll take it!

We needed this wet stretch, Clinton! High fire danger eliminated for now and perfect rains for spring that is about to bloom! 

And yes, some cold looks possible for a 10-14 day run. (surges of cold, then warm) Could we see some snow to finish off this uneventful winter?? There's a chance!!!

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

0z GFS...just because this is THE highest snow weenie run of the season???

 

That's the only weenie run of the entire winter for my region - watch it happen (in some form not verbatim ofc). Skunks have come out of hibernation and I cannot remember smelling so many. Just the latest signs from nature that we are stepping into spring. Fully expect last contiguous day of snow cover to be any day now. Could be today if the sunny and 52F verifies?  

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

15 hours ago, Andie said:

I know how you feel. It’s been so dry I’m dealing with nose bleeds.  
Geez! We need more moisture. 

Forecast shows 7 out of 11 days with chances for rain. 
it’s a start. 

This is how rainfall works in Houston.  I see everything with dry eye after thsi fall/winter.  There’s a front forecast to stall north of Houston this weekend but I remain very skeptical it will actually rain.  Likely will stay in the mid 80s over the weekend with 70 at night.  It feels more like May than March and I had my first night where I woke up sweating in the middle of the night.  By April Houston will be consistently in the mid 90s with lows in the high 70s and my May it will start to consistently reach 97-100 with lows in the low 80s.  Can’t even imagine how awful august is going to be this year.

 

 

[SolengarugarSubarbengabu]

7 hours ago, Clinton said:

More signs of cold coming mid month.

MJO moves into 7

I’m sure the Houston RRR will somehow manage to deflect all the cold!!

[gimmesnow]

I'm trying to not get too excited because it's 240+ hours out, but I have a trip to Lutsen and Euro AI, Euro, GEFS, and Canadian all have 7-22in the day before I drive up, March 15th. Starting to show up in the 10 day too.

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's the only weenie run of the entire winter for my region - watch it happen (in some form not verbatim ofc). Skunks have come out of hibernation and I cannot remember smelling so many. Just the latest signs from nature that we are stepping into spring. Fully expect last contiguous day of snow cover to be any day now. Could be today if the sunny and 52F verifies?  

Had 57F wonderful degrees on the car. Came home early and despite some wooded and drifted properties having full coverage the vast majority don’t so I’m calling this the final morning with continuous snow cover for the winter which iirc makes it 93 days.

[Andie]

3 hours ago, SolengarugarSubarbengabu said:

This is how rainfall works in Houston.  I see everything with dry eye after thsi fall/winter.  There’s a front forecast to stall north of Houston this weekend but I remain very skeptical it will actually rain.  Likely will stay in the mid 80s over the weekend with 70 at night.  It feels more like May than March and I had my first night where I woke up sweating in the middle of the night.  By April Houston will be consistently in the mid 90s with lows in the high 70s and my May it will start to consistently reach 97-100 with lows in the low 80s.  Can’t even imagine how awful august is going to be this year.

 

 

They just cautioned us for supercell formation with hail possible. Narrow window for tornado. 

So, Yeah be prepared with plenty of shower gel and deodorant.  Houston sux imo. It gets rough enough in No Tx.not to mention the traffic. 

80% + chance of thunderstorms this evening.  
Cant wait!  
Currently  82. Humidity 57%. & 70% chance of rain mañana. 
 

[Hoosier]

An absolutely delightful day here.  Upper 30s and foggy/drizzly.

[Clinton]

It's been a dreary damp day with a temp of 48.  It feels like it's been 48 everyday for a week.  I've gotten .30 inches of rain so far today.

[Stacsh]

13 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

An absolutely delightful day here.  Upper 30s and foggy/drizzly.

Really?   Hit  58 and was sunny all day in Grand Rapids.  

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Really?   Hit  58 and was sunny all day in Grand Rapids.  

Yes.  Very gloomy here.

[Andie]

Looking promising.  
Rain this weekend for certain. 

[Clinton]

Chilly thunderstorms ongoing with a temp of 47.  Thunderstorms have been stronger and more widespread in my area tonight than what the models showed.

[MI Storm]

Pea soup out there right now. A few nice days over the weekend, but a classic March this is shaping up to be. 

[Andie]

Rain in the area. Real rain!

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

It's been a dreary damp day with a temp of 48.  It feels like it's been 48 everyday for a week.  I've gotten .30 inches of rain so far today.

You got more precip today than i have past 57 days. I have .08".

[OttumwaSnomow]

I got my first measurable precip in 32 days!!!!!!  .03"

Its the driest period of my entire life!

.11" in 57 days

Why? I have literally been missed in every direction, sometimes by 5 miles.

Im not even going to look but no doubt Im the driest or tied with driest of over 300 sites in Iowa.

Whats disheartening is the long range  models had me at 2 to 3" first week of march! Here we wait wait wait for rain just for models to have given false hope.  I dont need models, IVE READ THIS BOOK AND WATCHED THIS MOVIE!!!   ITS CALL THE SE IOWA HELL HOLE LAND OF NO LIFT!   BUT ITS REALLY GROUND HOG DAY!!

we will see what the quasi warm front bring fri am. After that the movie is over!  Another dry cold front fri pm!

 

[chescowxman]

We have picked up 0.18" of rain since midnight and 0.50" of rain over the last 3 days. We will see more rain later today and tonight before we dry out a bit tomorrow. A couple more showers Saturday as we start our long awaited warm up through much of next week. We could see highs near 70 degrees by Tuesday.

[Clinton]

I added another half inch last night bringing my March total to 1.5 inches.  Tomorrow brings the first significant chance for severe weather this season. 

[jaster220]

28 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

I got my first measurable precip in 32 days!!!!!!  .03"

Its the driest period of my entire life!

.11" in 57 days

Why? I have literally been missed in every direction, sometimes by 5 miles.

Im not even going to look but no doubt Im the driest or tied with driest of over 300 sites in Iowa.

Whats disheartening is the long range  models had me at 2 to 3" first week of march! Here we wait wait wait for rain just for models to have given false hope.  I dont need models, IVE READ THIS BOOK AND WATCHED THIS MOVIE!!!   ITS CALL THE SE IOWA HELL HOLE LAND OF NO LIFT!   BUT ITS REALLY GROUND HOG DAY!!

we will see what the quasi warm front bring fri am. After that the movie is over!  Another dry cold front fri pm!

 

No where near your situation ofc, but cannot help but agree with your sentiment wrt the models always over-selling any precip events. This from my local forecast sums up most of it: "New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch".

Looping some model runs, again its miss S then grazed N - another new month with the same drum beat rolling on! Nothing is indicating where/how the many inches of qpf the globals were showing actually happen here in Mid-Michigan. At least we avoid snow (for a bit anyways). Heard a red-winged black bird yesterday evening - they don't winter here so another step into spring by nature. Stat-padding snows at best is my call going forward.

[mlgamer]

To chime in with @Clinton, we are still on track to possibly rock and roll tomorrow with a chance of strong tornadoes in the area. Seems a little early for this based on recent years, but here it is already.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

To chime in with @Clinton, we are still on track to possibly rock and roll tomorrow with a chance of strong tornadoes in the area. Seems a little early for this based on recent years, but here it is already.

I think the event today and tomorrow is the first operational use of the new, confusing tiered hatching.  

[Hoosier]

Decent shot at getting the first 70 of the year here tomorrow.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I think the event today and tomorrow is the first operational use of the new, confusing tiered hatching.  

I do like the county borders showing for the rare times you're in a higher risk level. Which I never expect to be in one as far north as mby currently is. IF we get something like that Gaylord EF-3 it will be a surprise and unannounced no doubt. I don't know of any tornado history for Clare County let alone Harrison in the hill country.

[WeatherProtogen]

hopefully Saturday turns out well

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Decent shot at getting the first 70 of the year here tomorrow.

Chitown might be buzzin' on a Friday afternoon...haven't paid much attn to it but would be interested to see how far north the warm front gets bc this time of year is always fickle.  Happy Hour drinks!

[jaster220]

I'm expecting this mixed/icy stuff to be another fail for Harrison like it was last time. We got by with 33F rain instead (both times actually) and it's a bit warmer this time around.

[Clinton]

Updated SPC outlook for tomorrow still looks stormy.

Also a pretty bullish outlook on day 6 for the southern plains. 

 

[Clinton]

Latest drought monitor.  I think the little bubble of above normal precip around KC will dry up this summer.  This pattern reeks of major drought. 

 

[summerrules]

Looking like another mild month around these parts, blessed.

[Andie]

I got zip on the rain gauge while east of me they received 8”!  And flooding. 
Honestly, I couldn’t win a roll of the dice if they were loaded! 
 

Maybe next time. 

[jaster220]

On 3/4/2026 at 4:40 PM, jaster220 said:

Had 57F wonderful degrees on the car. Came home early and despite some wooded and drifted properties having full coverage the vast majority don’t so I’m calling this the final morning with continuous snow cover for the winter which iirc makes it 93 days.

Actually - JUST missed the century mark for continuous snow cover days with 99! And ofc, working where I do means my world continues white but I did notice a lot more open ground up to about Houghton Lake now. Higgins and north still buried ofc. Saw some 4 ft drifts after work in the Industrial park. On the theme of this and last winter being total parallel seasons, my current snow total is just 0.9" more than last winter, tho I could add some ofc. Still, for the number of days with measurable snow up here, that's really a crazy close number. This season's biggest storm was 1" more than last winter's so basically that's the difference.

[Hawkeye]

Early tomorrow morning looks like a good spring soaker, with more possible later in the day..  The HRRR is quite bullish, probably too much.