March 2026 Observations & Discussion

[summerrules]

Did someone say Morch?

[Hoosier]

Will be curious to see how it goes around here tomorrow in terms of storms.  Some of the CAM guidance would suggest that the slight risk may need to be expanded into my area, but there is some uncertainty on the amount of storm coverage.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, summerrules said:

Did someone say Morch?

All we need for a Morch redux is a week straight of that.  Shouldn't be too difficult...

[Stacsh]

2 hours ago, summerrules said:

Did someone say Morch?

I don’t trust this just as much as I didn’t trust those fantasy cold and snowy runs.    Long range models have been trash. But I do expect an above average March for almost everyone outside of the NE.   

[Bryan1117]

Now on to our third round of brief thunderstorms tonight here in Omaha over the past hour, which have been packed with vivid lightning, heavy downpours, and pea-sized hail. Welcome to March in Nebraska!

This radar scan is a thing of beauty as the storms continue to back build as they move northeast.

[westMJim]

The overnight low here in MBY was 38, the current temperature is 40 with cloudy skies. Today looks to become very mild with a chance of some heavier thunderstorms. Highs could reach into the mid 60’s tonight looks to be very warm with overnight lows staying in the 60’s tomorrow it will start off very mild and become cooler later in the day. The week ahead look spring like for the most part with highs ranging from the 60’s to mid 40’s.

KEY MESSAGES  

FOG THIS MORNING  

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

 SATURDAY MORNING

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK

MID-WEEK SYSTEM BRINGS STORMS AND SNOW

 Detailed Forecast

Today

A slight chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Areas of fog before 11am. High near 65. Light east southeast wind becoming south southeast 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tonight

Showers and thunderstorms before 4am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm, mainly after 4am. Steady temperature around 62. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Saturday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms between 1pm and 4pm, then a slight chance of showers after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a temperature rising to near 64 by 10am, then falling to around 52 during the remainder of the day. Southwest wind 15 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 9 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Sunday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 46.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 64.

Monday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 42.

Tuesday

Showers likely after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.

Tuesday Night

Showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37.

Wednesday

A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 45.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 43/37 there was 0.02” of rainfall the highest wind speed was 20 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 40/24 the record high of 68 was in 1933, 1978 the coldest high of 16 was in 1920,1913 the record low of 0 was in 1901,1920 the warmest low of 50 was in 1894. The wettest was 0.68” id 1894 the most snowfall of 5.6” was in 1971 the most snow on the ground was 19” in 2014. The sunrise today is at 7:09 Am and the sun set is at 6:38 PM.

Some weather history for March 6^th 1954,  Florida received its greatest modern-day snowfall of record, with 4.0 inches at the Milton Experimental Station. Pensacola FL equalled their 24-hour record with 2.1 inches of snow. (The Weather Channel)and in 1989, A winter storm in the south central U.S. left parts of Missouri and Arkansas buried under more than a foot of snow. Heavier snowfall totals in Missouri included 14 inches at Springfield and 16 inches at Lebanon. Totals in Benton County AR ranged up to 14 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

[WeatherProtogen]

tomorrow keeps getting better and better!

[Tom]

Happy Friday!!  Its one of the coolest mornings in quite a while here today with some upper 40's show up in the valley.  It's really nice to take a step back with temps here over the next few days but I see a big time warm up dialing up for later mid & late month.  I'm going to enjoy these cooler days while mostly still a touch AN, but today should remain about normal for the most part.

 

 

 

[Tom]

@OttumwaSnomow, you have to be thrilled to have scored some good rains, right?

[Hawkeye]

The heavier cells trained across southeast Iowa overnight, but a big blob of solid rain up here was able to drop exactly 1 inch in my yard.  There were a couple huge cracks of thunder, including one at the very beginning, after which my internet was out for a few hours.

It appears Ottumwa finally got some heavy rain.  

If we can clear out, there could be some good storms this evening.

[Clinton]

A few small storms around this morning but maybe a strong line tonight.  I will have to see how much sunshine I get today, that will dictate any severe weather tonight. 

[hawkstwelve]

Winter Weather Advisory for tonight. Up to one inch of snow/sleet and two tenths of ice.

Hope we can keep the ice accumulation down. That stuff ain't no fun. 

[Black Hole]

Enhanced risk here today, mainly for hail but wind/tornado possible too. My suspicion is that I'll be right on the edge of the stronger stuff to my east/southeast. 

[OttumwaSnomow]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

@OttumwaSnomow, you have to be thrilled to have scored some good rains, right?

Woohoo!!!

1.69"

First real precip in 57 days! And my biggest rain since July.  Hope more later today!

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Woohoo!!!

1.69"

First real precip in 57 days! And my biggest rain since July.  Hope more later today!

I think the pattern this Spring will re-write the script that you've been experiencing.  Congrats my man!

[Andie]

High of 80 today.  50% chance of rain

Saturday 65*  80% chance of rain. Bring it on.  

[Hoosier]

Miss north with the rains.  Not surprising though.  Sun is peeking out now.

[Jayhawker85]

I think our chances over the KC area is decreasing for the chance of severe storms as a line of storms is backing into the area which is absorbing the current energy for future storms. 
 

i think the chance is now reduced to 20% since we have less daytime heating and the atmosphere getting worked over again 

[Clinton]

40 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

I think our chances over the KC area is decreasing for the chance of severe storms as a line of storms is backing into the area which is absorbing the current energy for future storms. 
 

i think the chance is now reduced to 20% since we have less daytime heating and the atmosphere getting worked over again 

Models seem completely lost right up to the moment.  This looks like an all day rain event.

[summerrules]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

All we need for a Morch redux is a week straight of that.  Shouldn't be too difficult...

This is fine by me

 

[Hoosier]

Stepped outside briefly and man, haven't felt this here in a while.  Temps 70+ and dews 60+.  Quite nice.

[Hoosier]

This is about as warm as it gets around here this early in March.  Southern LOT cwa is not far from 80 degrees, and many pws's around here are in the mid 70's.  Off the top of my head, I can't remember this kind of warmth in the first week of March, at least in my lifetime, but maybe it's happened.  

[Clinton]

Severe thunderstorm and tornado watches about to go out.

[Black Hole]

MD for here. First stuff will probably go southeast of me, but good instability growing to my west where its been sunny all day. 

[Hoosier]

Tornado warning in the place where you expect it the most in early March... southwest Michigan.

[Hoosier]

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Tornado warning in the place where you expect it the most in early March... southwest Michigan.

Looks like confirmed damage 

[summerrules]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

This is about as warm as it gets around here this early in March.  Southern LOT cwa is not far from 80 degrees, and many pws's around here are in the mid 70's.  Off the top of my head, I can't remember this kind of warmth in the first week of March, at least in my lifetime, but maybe it's happened.  

73 at MDW, hopefully the real warm stuff can make it up to ORD.

[Hoosier]

12 minutes ago, summerrules said:

73 at MDW, hopefully the real warm stuff can make it up to ORD.

Could be a tall task given the rain around there.  

[Hoosier]

Looks like early March 2000 had similar warmth around here.  Don't really remember it for some reason.  I remember the early April 2000 snow more.  That's basically it though in my lifetime as far as temps this warm this early. 

[Stacsh]

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Looks like confirmed damage 

I’m following it on Michigan storm chasers.   Had a live view of it.   Looked like a decent wedge tornado just formed again.   Lots of damage so far.    Unfortunately it’s not in a radar range of any site for good velocity data.   

[Hoosier]

Legit.  A crapload of debris starts getting thrown about halfway into the video, back toward where the guy is filming.

 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Stepped outside briefly and man, haven't felt this here in a while.  Temps 70+ and dews 60+.  Quite nice.

You get that spring smell in the air?

[Hoosier]

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

You get that spring smell in the air?

Absolutely

[Hoosier]

Decent line organizing to my west.

[Clinton]

I got a loud thunderstorm moving in.  This has a late April feel today.

[Hoosier]

Might be about to have a little bit of an issue with training here.  

[Hoosier]

That may have been a higher end tornado in Michigan.  The damage is quite substantial in some of the pics that I've seen.

[Hoosier]

Will leave it to the pros of course but based on some of the damage pics, it looks like an EF-3+ tornado to me in Michigan.  Also multiple fatalities reported.

[Clinton]

A pretty nice cluster of thunderstorms moving in.  One severe cell will come close to my place.

[Clinton]

43 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Will leave it to the pros of course but based on some of the damage pics, it looks like an EF-3+ tornado to me in Michigan.  Also multiple fatalities reported.

That seems very early in the year for Michigan.  Is this common for early March?