Jump to content

Recommended Posts

Posted
17 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

We’ll see how bad the gefs ends up doing. Gefs AI not on board. Models will probably compromise a bit.

IMG_4326.png

The difference between 48F and 54F rain. Big implications here.

  • Downvote 1
  • Thanks 1
Posted
3 hours ago, MossMan said:

IMG_0032.jpeg

Gotta think we’ll be due for some +PNA after mid month.  Lots of -PNA with almost nothing to show for it.  

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Posted
8 minutes ago, AndreSunshine said:

The difference between 48F and 54F rain. Big implications here.

Difference between favored locations getting some 34 degree slushy snow and mountain snowpack being saved.

Posted
9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Gotta think we’ll be due for some +PNA after mid month.  Lots of -PNA with almost nothing to show for it.  

Alaska has been eating good in the -PNA neighborhood. 

  • Sad 1
Posted
2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Difference between favored locations getting some 34 degree slushy snow and mountain snowpack being saved.

Screenshot2026-03-03at10_35_03AM.thumb.png.5a31e60d7f8bebb20f661dead48ee3c9.png

I don't think this can be saved at this point. The question is really how bad the water problems are going to get this summer.

  • Sad 2
Posted
8 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Me too! We had a small viewing window in the clouds.

Luckily I’m in California right now and the sky was completely clear last night.

2025 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 2 (Warmest 83)

Number of 85+ days - 0

Number of 90+ days - 0

Number of 95+ days - 0

Number of 60+ lows - 0

Posted
11 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Screenshot2026-03-03at10_35_03AM.thumb.png.5a31e60d7f8bebb20f661dead48ee3c9.png

I don't think this can be saved at this point. The question is really how bad the water problems are going to get this summer.

Fortunately the BOR folks are not dummies, they have the Yakima at 127% of normal storage right now. Holding onto as much winter rainfall as they possibly can. 

  • Like 2
Posted
8 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

@MossMan gets a snowstorm and everyone else gets graupel showers 

I’d bet a decent chunk that some northern areas see some snow next week.  

Posted
2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’d bet a decent chunk some northern areas see some snow next week.  

I agree, those 850s are pretty cold and there will be moisture around. Typical March stuff. Thunder likely as well on Monday afternoon. 

Posted

Some of these runs are showing a great prototypical March event here… It’s about right when I expected it to follow up the late February troughing we had. I think it will be fairly short lived and definitely won’t save our snow pack. 

  • Like 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Posted
48 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

@MossMan gets a snowstorm and everyone else gets graupel showers 

2yrs ago tomorrow! 

IMG_0039.jpeg

IMG_0040.jpeg

  • Like 2

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Posted
35 minutes ago, MossMan said:

2yrs ago tomorrow! 

IMG_0039.jpeg

IMG_0040.jpeg

How do you always see the most snow in any given event for the region?!? 

  • lol 2
  • Confused 1

My Weather Blog: https://alookintothestorm.blogspot.com

Weather Stats IMBY -

2024-2025 Total Snow - 6.7 Inches

2025-26 Total Snow - 3 Inches

Snowiest Day - 3/13/26 - 3 Inches

Warmest Temp - 91 F

Coldest Temp - 18 F

 

 

 

Posted
1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some of these runs are showing a great prototypical March event here… It’s about right when I expected it to follow up the late February troughing we had. I think it will be fairly short lived and definitely won’t save our snow pack. 

So you don’t think it’s not coming?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

Posted
On 3/1/2026 at 9:28 PM, ShawniganLake said:

Nice to see some areas back east managed to score at least a bit of a chilly winter.  

Scored another 1.5” of snow yesterday followed by 0.15” of ZR overnight. Nice little consolation prize ahead of the flip to warmth (and probably permanent spring) coming up.

That said, it was yet another significantly colder than average winter with below average snowfall here. These -ENSO winters are always a challenge in the Mid-Atlantic due to the lack of a STJ, doesn’t matter how cold it gets.

I have a feeling 2026/27 will finally deliver in the snowfall department assuming the Niño comes to fruition. Good chance we finally score that long overdue Miller-A blizzard.

  • Like 1
Posted
On 3/2/2026 at 1:23 PM, the_convergence_zone said:

The northern hemisphere cold pool, defined as the area of 850 mb temps < -5C, was the smallest on record during the 2025-26 winter. 

Not surprising since it seemed nearly impossible to get the 850s cold enough for lowland snow this year.

https://balancedweather.substack.com/p/march-starts-off-with-building-record?r=5aph6q&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

 

IMG_7253.webp

That’s an unsuitable dynamical definition of the cold pool IMO, I’d use at least -30°C for that.

Posted
On 3/2/2026 at 1:52 PM, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, it's noticeable just from religiously looking at the models so much over the years. Even compared to 15 years ago, the breadth of the cooler air (sub-540 thickness) has really diminished across the NH. Which is part of why the higher Cascades are seeing more and more liquid precip. 

I’ve noticed it a lot out this way in the autumn months, especially Sep/Oct where it feels like we’re a month behind the upper level seasonal progression of the early/mid 2000s. Like there will be almost no baroclinic zone or any weather to speak of for 8+ weeks during the autumn, it’s increasingly boring for me ad a weather enthusiast.

The change has been much less drastic in the winter and spring, though. The Hudson Bay/Baffin Island Cold Pool can still flex when it wants to, as multiple 850mb low temp records have been set in the last 15 years, probably due to increased prevalence of +TNH type patterns in recent decades.

Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s an unsuitable dynamical definition of the cold pool IMO, I’d use at least -30°C for that.

What’s the point of using a cold pool definition that almost never touches CONUS? 

Edited by the_convergence_zone
Posted
39 minutes ago, snostorm21 said:

How do you always see the most snow in any given event for the region?!? 

Almost 600’ in elevation and at the northern reaches of the CZ…And moisture enhancement from the strait? Just typically a great microclimate as I can drive a mile north or an half mile west and it can look like a typical non snowy morning. 

  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Posted
4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

60s coming by mid month. 

IMG_7256.png

It’s coming.  One more winter tease to get through first.  

  • Sick 1
Posted
1 hour ago, snostorm21 said:

How do you always see the most snow in any given event for the region?!? 

Age old question with no answer... just the way of the universe.   😀

  • Excited 1

*

Posted
2 hours ago, Phil said:

Scored another 1.5” of snow yesterday followed by 0.15” of ZR overnight. Nice little consolation prize ahead of the flip to warmth (and probably permanent spring) coming up.

That said, it was yet another significantly colder than average winter with below average snowfall here. These -ENSO winters are always a challenge in the Mid-Atlantic due to the lack of a STJ, doesn’t matter how cold it gets.

I have a feeling 2026/27 will finally deliver in the snowfall department assuming the Niño comes to fruition. Good chance we finally score that long overdue Miller-A blizzard.

NYC, Philly, and Richmond all saw above to well above average snowfall this winter, though. DC was just kind of a screw zone, but it was a good winter for the Mid Atlantic overall.

O the snow, the beautiful snow!
Filling the sky and the earth below!
Over the house-tops, over the street,
Over the heads of the people you meet,
Dancing, Flirting, Skimming along.
Beautiful snow! it can do nothing wrong.

Posted

18z is insane. AI GFS was decent too. 

  • scream 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Popular Contributors

  • Activity Stream

    1. 100

      May 2026 Observations and Discussion

    2. 100

      May 2026 Observations and Discussion

    3. 100

      May 2026 Observations and Discussion

    4. 713

      May 2026 Weather In The PNW

    5. 713
×
×
  • Create New...