Winter Storm: 3-15 - 3-16 Potential

[Money]

All models very consistent in showing a big band of snow somewhere in the Midwest for Sunday/Monday

Heaviest band in all models is at least 1-2 feet of snow and some even higher than that. I believe the storm made landfall today so we should hopefully get some good data over the next day or so

Discuss the storm here (GFS/ICON maps below) Icon is about halfway through the storm

[Tom]

Quite the dynamic storm shaping up with Arctic air in toe…should be fun tracking this one.

[WildWisconsinWeather]

I’m telling people not to buy into the hype on some of the apps (most have in the 16-25” range) but I will say we’ve had a decent number of March snowstorms the past four years.

[Money]

13 minutes ago, WildWisconsinWeather said:

I’m telling people not to buy into the hype on some of the apps (most have in the 16-25” range) but I will say we’ve had a decent number of March snowstorms the past four years.

Yeah not buying into the 2-3 feet amounts but I could definitely see the heaviest band hit 12-18. Models have been VERY consistent and it’s going to have some cold air to work with 

[summerrules]

final call for ORD: DAB

looks like Money is going to get crushed, however.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, summerrules said:

final call for ORD: DAB

looks like Money is going to get crushed, however.

Seems like the final calls get issued earlier all the time.  

[MKEstorm]

The 18z Euro not budging! Has mostly a rainer for Southern Wisconsin! The operational Euro and the Euro AIFS still miles apart! I recall that the Euro didn’t do so well with the big East Coast storm last month!

 

[jaster220]

Per GRR some of the Euro's ENS members have the more southern hit:

Another strong low is seen in the models Sunday dropping freezing
rain and snow. The GFS continues to show a lot of snow, while the
ECMWF ensembles only average around an inch. However, there were a
couple of ensemble members that produced around a foot. We`ll
continue to keep an eye on this system. A return to winter-like
temperatures is also expected with highs in the mid to upper 20s
next Monday and Tuesday.

[summerrules]

Gonna be a 33 and rain type of deal in Chicago, the worst of both worlds.

[Money]

0z icon significant shift north and lines up with the euro 

[Money]

Icon still showing 2+ feet of snow in the heaviest band 

[Money]

I wonder if there’s a limit to how far north this could go. Ton of cold air around and I know LM usually keeps storms further south this time of the year 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

3 minutes ago, Money said:

I wonder if there’s a limit to how far north this could go. Ton of cold air around and I know LM usually keeps storms further south this time of the year 

I would agree and really like where you sit!

[Money]

GFS 18-24 across most of southern WI 

Similar to 18z 

[Money]

GFS 24 hour totals 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Money said:

GFS 24 hour totals 

We ought to address the truly pressing question though.  Are online high school diplomas legitimate?

[Money]

1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

We ought to address the truly pressing question though.  Are online high school diplomas legitimate?

Always

[Money]

GEM is insane…

 

GFS and GEM identical tracks and snowfall amounts compared to their previous run. I believe the storm is on land now and being sampled fully as well 

 

 

[Money]

2 minutes ago, Money said:

GEM is insane…

 

GFS and GEM identical tracks and snowfall amounts compared to their previous run. I believe the storm is on land now and being sampled fully as well 

 

 

 

[WildWisconsinWeather]

GFS Ensembles still tend to agree with the operational.

[Money]

5 minutes ago, WildWisconsinWeather said:

GFS Ensembles still tend to agree with the operational.

Ukie still with a big hit 

[Money]

6z GFS/Icon

[Money]

6z euro came back south. Crush job here

I don’t have snow totals but 972 MB L 

 

 

[Money]

Low tracks through Chicago on the euro and then bombs out over southern LM and crawls north 

[hawkstwelve]

I'm supposed to fly out of FSD on Monday morning to MSP. Models seem to show 2-20 inches somewhere between here and there. I'd rather not have to deal with flight cancellations so I'm hoping this one crumbles as we go down the homestretch, like most storms have done this season. At least out this way. WI can have the fun. 

[Tom]

This system has "Blizzard Potential" written all over it....good luck to whoever gets smashed by this Big Dog!

[WildWisconsinWeather]

Anyone have the Euro Ensemble mean?

[summerrules]

Looks like it trended slightly north overall

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Money said:

Low tracks through Chicago on the euro and then bombs out over southern LM and crawls north 

WISCO Special - my call on thread ownership looking @Money 

[Tom]

North trend in todays runs...Greenbay looks golden and possibly @jaster220land (depending on how hard it cuts)...if this thing keeps getting stronger on the models, then you'll prob switch over...Lehs up north is legitimately a big deal with how cold this airmass is and a long duration ENE wind by GRB...

12z GFS....yeesh!

 

12z Canadien...

 

12z UKIE...

 

[Tom]

12z GEFS...D**n, its gonna be puking snow...#thundersnow

Cascade or Devil's head ski trip???  Where is @gimmesnow??

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

North trend in todays runs...Greenbay looks golden and possibly @jaster220land (depending on how hard it cuts)...if this thing keeps getting stronger on the models, then you'll prob switch over...Lehs up north is legitimately a big deal with how cold this airmass is and a long duration ENE wind by GRB...

12z GFS....yeesh!

 

12z Canadien...

 

12z UKIE...

 

Ok, I'm a little jealous.

[bud2380]

Yesterday models kept trending south, but now they are firmly back further north, as expected.  We won't get much down here other than perhaps some wrap around snow, but this could be a huge one for parts of MN & WI. 

[Tony]

11 minutes ago, bud2380 said:

Yesterday models kept trending south, but now they are firmly back further north, as expected.  We won't get much down here other than perhaps some wrap around snow, but this could be a huge one for parts of MN & WI. 

Most of the winter storms this year have trended south so let's see if this continues with this storm or if the tides have finally turned.

[james1976]

This is starting to look very interesting for the TC metro. Maybe one more slam dunk before the season is over.

We had a solid inch, maybe a bit more last night. We had lost all our snow before that.

Im in spring fever mode but I wouldn't complain with one more big dog!

[Tom]

12z Euro AI...ratios should be 12-14:1 with this, maybe even higher...

[Money]

FYI euro came back south and has low south of Chicago 

[Money]

Euro 

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Money said:

FYI euro came back south and has low south of Chicago 

Even Chicago gets a decent hit of deformation zone snow as the low deepens quickly.

[Hoosier]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Even Chicago gets a decent hit of deformation zone snow as the low deepens quickly.

It's actually a pretty eventful storm for Chicago, verbatim.  An inch of rain before a flip to heavy, wind driven snow.